Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Debate night — Handicapping MI-01 after Benishek's retirement
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2015 08:14:47 -0600

By Elena Schneider | 09/16/2015 10:02AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

TODAY ON CAMPAIGN PRO - "Benishek's retirement sets off scramble for open House seat," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a31c50764399793c7da365788bbfa7ed76d24660588feac0f6041865f092b202

FIGHT NIGHT - "Kentucky gubernatorial candidates display divides, trade insults in first televised debate," by Lexington Herald-Leader's Jack Brammer and John Cheves: "Kentucky's three candidates for governor displayed conflicting positions Tuesday night on a multitude of issues, including same-sex marriage licenses. It got tense at times, especially between Democrat Jack Conway and Republican Matt Bevin. Conway called Bevin 'callous' for wanting to roll back Gov. Steve Beshear's expansion of Medicaid for low-income Kentuckians without health insurance, and Bevin accused Conway of being untruthful. 'So much that comes out of your mouth is made up. You make up lies on the fly,' Bevin said at
 one point during the hour-long debate at Bellarmine University." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a31c50764399793c5a84a43d239ecc4c26762537bcce6468849d619acab7468c 

- Response to Kim Davis, a jailed Rowan County clerk who refused to marry gay couples, and same-sex marriage, unsurprisingly, divided the candidates, the Associated Press reported. "We as a state have been at the forefront in recognizing the fact that there are no rights that anyone has that suppress the rights of others," said Matt Bevin, the Republican candidate. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a31c50764399793cd8466a8cb041e9530a7631b4bae57e85f93923ca4e48bef7 

- The Courier-Journal ran through some of the night's most tense exchanges: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a31c50764399793cb2f2fc381df552e54ca56e1f7e6a3af1ed788005329c790d 

WHAT THEY'RE READING IN FLORIDA - A circuit court judge now has seven congressional maps to choose from, now that the League of Women Voters and Common Cause, both plaintiffs in the redistricting case, submitted their own, the Miami Herald reported. The state's House and Senate also turned in their own maps to the court. The judge will hear testimony on the maps on Sept. 24, and he must make a recommendation by mid-October. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a31c50764399793cb2f2fc381df552e54ca56e1f7e6a3af1ed788005329c790d 

- The DCCC consulted on one of the proposals, POLITICO Florida's Matt Dixon reports, adding "yet another layer of political intrigue to the case." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a31c50764399793c62866e014fb4fcdcc773e89a73449ee778404f99d3a6a6fe

FIRST IN SCORE - PPP poll shows tight primaries in Florida Senate race: A new robopoll from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling shared first with Campaign Pro shows liberal Rep. Alan Grayson holding a slim, 33 percent to 27 percent lead over establishment pick Rep. Patrick Murphy in the Florida's Democratic Senate primary. Murphy has a stronger image rating: A third of Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of him, while only 15 percent have a negative opinion. Grayson is better known, but less popular. Twenty-nine percent of Florida Democrats have a favorable opinion, but 26 percent have an unfavorable opinion. The poll of 368 Democratic primary voters has a margin of
 error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=22a8bdfbeae314e39368dc15117e6d30b8005c830299532f174bc5d97295d21c

- A majority of Republican voters remain undecided in the GOP primary, with the remainder split evenly between three candidates: 18 percent back Rep. David Jolly, 15 percent back Rep. Ron DeSantis and 14 percent back Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera. None of the candidates are particularly well-known, with at least 60 percent of primary voters having no opinion of each of them. The sample of 377 Republican primary voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=22a8bdfbeae314e31786b9d75956d91139ea2b265b5dae26e6742a4781e01717

- In the general election, Murphy performs better than Grayson against Jolly and DeSantis, but both Democrats hold leads over Lopez-Cantera. Grayson is the best-known - and most disliked - candidate in the field. The survey of 814 voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.http://bit.ly/1MpV0yW

Days until the 2015 election: 48. Days until the 2016 election: 419.

Thanks for joining us. Email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. 

Join the POLITICO Campaign Pro team tomorrow evening for a dynamic conversation exploring the impact mobile technology will have on 2016 campaigns. How are campaigns using mobile tools to fundraise, organize and collect big data? Which social platforms will effectively change the game and reach new audiences in 2016 and beyond? http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a31c50764399793ca740f774f06d23c2f9f4e1800b109041a9b5633e539a001c 

DEBATE PREP EDITION - 2016 SPEED READ - "Is Jeb tough enough to survive Trump?" by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt and Glenn Thrush: "Nobody is more nervous about this week's debate than Jeb Bush's top fundraisers -- and no audience will have more to say about his future viability as a candidate. New York Jets owner Woody Johnson knew it. He recognized the group assembled at his Rockefeller Center office in Manhattan last Wednesday was in need of some reassurance after Bush's unimpressive performance in last month's GOP debate, so Bush's national finance chairman, recalled one attendee, gave a personal pledge: Jeb would be 'well prepared' for the second debate this week. ... Bush, one former
 adviser to his father said, 'needs to show he's the tough-minded guy we know he is.' If he doesn't, the former aide added, 'Well, you know, it might be over.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a31c50764399793c61b8dcac3f551afb701a288e535edbb8d35d11b916f3fcde

- "The 13 things to know about the GOP debate," the obvious - it's tonight, (but you knew that already, thanks to CNN's countdown clock). The first debate starts at 6 p.m. ET., and the mainstage debate from 8-11 p.m. ... and in case you were wondering, the next GOP debate is set for Wednesday, Oct. 28, hosted by CNBC at the University of Colorado in Boulder. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=22a8bdfbeae314e343708aab277947d8ab51a6e86d7bd3b5a6bfb36a30ef104e

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT - "GOP rivals hope more subdued debate setting throws Trump," by Campaign Pro's Kyle Cheney: "The raucous 4,500-strong audience of rank-and-file Republicans that packed into a Cleveland sports arena last month for the first GOP debate fueled the bombastic billionaire ... But Wednesday night's debate will have a different feel in the more somber confines of the Reagan Presidential Library with a more subdued crowd of several hundred donors and party insiders. Half a dozen campaigns contacted by POLITICO this week predicted the shift could have an unsettling effect not only on Trump but on many of the other contenders who fed off the energy of the lively arena
 during the Fox News debate on Aug. 6. ... A quiet crowd, the campaigns noted, can turn punchy quips punchless, stifle the sharpest retorts and turn a potent applause line into an awkward rejoinder." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ec53fc849e4e0ba06f89f59a13e7d1c08a880dff82a2b60ea1e94980ecd5186a

WALKER'S NOW OR NEVER - "Scott Walker's last best chance," by POLITICO's Daniel Strauss: "After a sleepy performance in the first Republican presidential debate that fueled a steep slide in his standing with voters, the Wisconsin governor's team has pushed him to prepare. Round Two will be different, according to sources inside Walker's camp. He won't stop talking before his time is up, as he did at that first debate - a decision that left some of his top backers scratching their heads. He will be more assertive, according to people who have been briefed. And he won't just answer the moderators' questions but instead pivot to his personal story. And anything less could spell trouble." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ec53fc849e4e0ba0e65d3ec111d75948eccffd8eadc36198803b5baa2ab12cea

FIORINA'S, TOO - "Carly Fiorina's make-or-break moment has arrived," by POLITICO's Katie Glueck: "The former Hewlett-Packard CEO and only female Republican candidate scrapped her way onto the primetime stage in Wednesday night's debate, and all eyes will be on her as she tries to prove she not only deserves that spot but can also go mano-a-mano with Donald Trump, whose insults have so far only boosted her momentum. The advice for her: Don't hold back. This is her best shot,' said Doug Gross, a prominent unaffiliated Iowa Republican lawyer and campaign veteran. 'It's not like she needs to play it safe or have it result in a draw. She's got to win this encounter [with Trump]. If she doesn't,
 she'll go down.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ec53fc849e4e0ba04a0a9f83249f5e7bc75d0995c94aafc7fac4be2e8e9999b9

HOME ALONE - "Gilmore plans to live-tweet the debate," by Campaign Pro's Kyle Cheney: "Jim Gilmore's steamed that CNN has excluded him, and only him, from Wednesday's Republican debates, but he's going to jump into the fray anyway - on Twitter. ... From afar, Gilmore will offer rebuttals and retorts in 140 characters or less. He'll also be on Facebook." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ec53fc849e4e0ba01fada9a875cfbfb895cbbeaa652f7e9f1b49296a0beae32d

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE AISLE - "Hillary, DNC face pressure to add debates," by POLITICO's Gabriel Debenedetti: "The increasingly public rift between Democratic National Committee chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz and others in her party's leadership over the number of presidential debates is threatening to become more than just embarrassing to the DNC. It's spelling trouble for Hillary Clinton, the faltering front-runner who can't afford to look like she's being protected by party insiders, say Democrats aligned with both the DNC and 2016 campaigns. ... With the fault lines drawn, many Democrats believe that it would take nothing less than a direct call from Clinton's campaign
 headquarters in Brooklyn - or the White House - to change Wasserman Schultz's mind." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ec53fc849e4e0ba08a9b380118ebaa29d54b5d76330d971ba031721af15b6e7d

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "He's like a struggling rapper on Twitter. Let me just make fun of everyone and retweet all the nice things people say." - Mac Miller, a rapper, on Larry Wilmore's Nightly Show. Miller titled one of his own songs, "Donald Trump," but says that the Republican candidate missed the point. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a31c50764399793c5ef1f69f37bb82764710a150dac901f5851e9dbd656f30ad

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