Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: ELECTION DAY SPECIAL — What to watch for in Kentucky — Down-ballot races of note
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 03 Nov 2015 09:02:26 -0600

By Theodoric Meyer | 11/03/2015 10:00 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard, Steven Shepard, Burgess Everett, Elena Schneider and Marc Caputo

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

ELECTION DAY - What to watch for in the Kentucky governor's race: The polls close in the overwhelming majority of the Bluegrass State at 6 p.m. EST, meaning this could be - like now-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's win over Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes last year - an early election night, even if the result is as close as the polls indicate. Here are a few things to watch for as the returns start to come in:

- Overall turnout: This is the rare election where Republicans may want higher turnout than Democrats. Both sides agree turnout will be low - Bevin allowed Monday there was "not a whole lot of enthusiasm in Kentucky for this race." The question is how low. Conway's campaign has suggested that 1 million or fewer voters will show up on Tuesday. Bevin's campaign is looking for turnout closer to 1.2 million.

- Turnout in Northern Kentucky: Northern Kentucky is arguably the most reliably Republican region in the state, but it's also disconnected from the state's major media markets. It feels closer to Cincinnati than it does to Louisville or Lexington and often has low turnout. But the region came through big for Bevin during the primary election, and his campaign believes it could again in the general election.

- Does Eastern Kentucky stay red?: When McConnell beat Grimes, he won several counties in eastern Kentucky he had never won before. Voters there were conservative, but union ties and party loyalty had kept them in the Democratic column for decades. The question now: Did McConnell's victory turn those counties permanently red? Or will they go blue again in a gubernatorial election, in which it's harder to run against Washington and President Barack Obama?

- The black vote: Kentucky has a relatively small black population of 8 percent, according to the 2010 Census, with most African-Americans clustered in a few neighborhoods on the Ohio border and in Louisville. But the Bevin campaign is hopeful they can make some gains with the traditionally Democratic constituency by emphasizing school choice. One consultant noted Bevin's campaign ads often feature more minorities than Conway's do - Bevin has four adopted children from Ethiopia, and his running mate, Jenean Hampton, is African American. A conflict over black representation on university boards has also damaged Conway's relationship with some leaders in the black community.

LAST-MINUTE PUSH - GOP mounts late offensive in key Kentucky race," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "The late blitz, including $2.5 million in spending on digital, mail and television in the final two weeks from the RGA - which pulled out of the race for nearly four weeks during September and October - has helped close the spending gap in the race." Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Sen. Rand Paul, neither of whom Bevin has avoided offending in the past, both recorded get-out-the-vote robocalls for Bevin that tie his Democratic opponent to President Barack Obama. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ca4d86f66880757b96e4107f5262bc0c4385a114772927739657edf4d74c02c1

Days until the 2015 election: 0. Days until the 2016 election: 371.

Thanks for joining us. Email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about rappers named Juiceboxxx: @politico_steve, @kyledcheney, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer.

ELECTION DAY - More races to watch: There's more action than just the Kentucky governor's race:

- The Kentucky auditor and attorney general races: Republicans are hoping they can stop two future Democratic recruits - state Auditor Adam Edelen, who's running for reelection, and Andy Beshear, the son of the outgoing governor, who's running for attorney general - in their tracks on Tuesday. 

- Mississippi attorney general: Democrats have just one statewide officeholder in the Deep South: longtime Mississippi Attorney General Jim Hood, who was first elected in 2003 and is seeking a fourth term on Tuesday. Can Hood hold on with a little-known Democrat at the top of the ticket?

- Virginia state Senate: All 40 seats in the Virginia state Senate are up for election on Tuesday, and Democrats need to net one seat to secure the majority. But that path is complicated by their own vulnerable districts, like the Northern Virginia seat currently held by retiring Democratic state Sen. Chuck Colgan.

POLLING UPDATE - Poll: Edwards leads Vitter by 19 points in Louisiana: Democrat John Bel Edwards has opened up a 19-point lead over GOP Sen. David Vitter in the Louisiana governor's race, according to a new poll. Edwards is earning 54 percent of the vote to Vitter's 35 percent in the poll, conducted by JMC Analytics. Eleven percent are undecided. JMC Analytics conducted the survey of 600 likely voters from Oct. 28-31 for Nexstar Broadcasting, which owns multiple television stations in Louisiana. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Full results here.

FIRST IN SCORE - New nonprofit hits Feingold: The Wisconsin Alliance for Reform, a new conservative nonprofit in the state, is spending six figures on a digital, cable and broadcast buy using a game-show theme to attack former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold. The ad shows contestants on a show clearly meant to resemble "Jeopardy!" answering from the "Liberals" category such as "This U.S. senator voted to raise taxes 278 times." The answer, of course, is always, "Who is Russ Feingold?" The ad will air on cable and broadcast in the Milwaukee, Wausau and Green Bay markets. It will make its debut tonight in Milwaukee during the real "Jeopardy!" 

- Watch the ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ca4d86f66880757b7dd4c9efa3998b62c41d55d56f35b1c12dba14edf72b5b3b

FIRST IN SCORE - Johnson to fundraise off Feingold's garage door pledge: GOP Sen. Ron Johnson's campaign plans to send out a fundraising email on Tuesday criticizing Feingold for abandoning the promise he made during his first Senate campaign to raise at least 50 percent of campaign contributions from inside Wisconsin. Feingold made the pledge, which was written on his garage door, 24 years ago today. The email is part of series of attacks on the issue by the Johnson campaign, which views Feingold as playing defense on campaign finance now after holding the upper ground on the issue in his previous elections.

MOVIN' ON UP - DSCC hires Passalacqua as national press secretary: The Senate Democrats' campaign arm has plucked Lauren Passalacqua to come on board as national press secretary starting this morning. Passalacqua is coming over from the office of Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and before that worked for the campaigns of Mark Udall and John Walsh as well as Mayor Michael Bloomberg, AG Eric Schneiderman and Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Lauren helps fill out the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's communications team after Sadie Weiner's elevation to communications director.

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Jeb Bush's Florida nostalgia tour," by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney and Marc Caputo: Here's a depressing statistic for Jeb Bush, who tried to reset his candidacy with a speech in Tampa, Fla., on Monday: only 46 percents of the Republicans who voted to reelect him in 2002 are still on the rolls. "To be blunt, a whole lot of people who voted for Jeb are dead," Alex Patton, a Florida Republican strategist, told POLITICO. "Even though Jeb was a great conservative governor, there's a whole lot of people who know or remember nothing about it." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ca4d86f66880757b6d472db3534bf50148ad6767a97ac4a1647e17671c329a03

- "Carson's cash juggernaut rolls on," by POLITICO's Katie Glueck: Ben Carson's campaign trumpeted on Sunday that it had raised $10 million in October alone - but the campaign didn't say how much cash it had burned to raise that amount of money. "'He just raised $10 million, I'm not sure he has $10 million to spend,' said Ed Rollins, who in 2012 served as former Rep. Michele Bachmann's presidential campaign manager. Like Carson, Bachmann was a hit with small-dollar donors, but spent heavily on direct mail in her ultimately unsuccessful bid. Noting the high expense of that approach, Rollins continued, 'My assumption is he has far less to spend.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ca4d86f66880757be599413dc42085321676d8ba02bde7ab37d3d5b75d507ddb

- The Republican candidates' plan to exert more control over the debates has collapsed a day after it was hammered out, POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt, Nick Gass and Hadas Gold report: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ca4d86f66880757b03287cbb3d4f6e66177a394b32e7db30894ccac37bf1e104

- "Inside Sanders' plan to chip into Clinton's lead,' by POLITICO's Gabriel Debenedetti: Bernie Sanders is done with the huge rallies in Seattle; Madison, Wis.; and other liberal bastions, at least for now. Instead, he's focusing on the diners and coffee shops of Iowa and New Hampshire. "His team is planning more television appearances, but not only on news shows. Instead he wants to replicate his experience on programs like 'The Ellen DeGeneres Show' and 'The View' to reach voters who see him largely as a gruff underdog." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ca4d86f66880757b16f18dc31661e13862d565991d5e3632cf5264f527aaec3e

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Do you want the giggle pants? The guy who sweats profusely for no reason at all and can't look anyone in the eye and giggles for no reason at all, or the other guy?" - Matt Bevin, who framed the race on the eve of the election as a contest between himself and a Democrat who can't stop laughing. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ca4d86f66880757bb7ef86feee36c24e0db25cc9f92043d03150b3abb7dc9531

TOOLS YOU CAN USE: POLITICO PRO CONGRESSIONAL DIRECTORY - Not Mr. Smith's 1930s Rolodex. Did you know that POLITICO Pro subscribers have full access to Pro's Congressional Directory as part of their subscriptions? From staffer issue areas, to work and education history, party, committee affiliations and/or caucuses - Pro users have all the details they need to build strategic relationships in one, easy-to-use tool. Interested in becoming a Pro and having full access to the Congressional Directory? Schedule your demo today. 

To view online:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0ed8a5a2ce87399c3e83b0334df4c21848077ba76133e04f144f462194717326
 To change your alert settings, please go to http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0ed8a5a2ce87399cc48e9faeba23221359fd942865e883c23580104b0172a245 or http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0ed8a5a2ce87399cc05ccdf1e0019326dc7b67ed81a6a8a356b0420c3ac8ff14This email was sent to [email-masked] by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

To unsubscribe,http://www.politico.com/_unsubscribe?e=00000150-cddc-d1bd-a350-edddebae0000&u=0000014e-f0fe-dd93-ad7f-f8fffbc40000&s=28108f2722f2e7c23fcb6ab6bfa3378b72bf4a43d7ec59a73c1538c62b67ca83663ef5c2efcea9d0b531f65972f365dba476d1f818038a0578348daebb50e466