Subject: POLITICO Huddle: TRUMP, SANDERS AND TRADE -- Dems look to red states in Senate battle -- So many Wastebooks -- BAILING ON BUSH
From: "POLITICO Huddle" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 09 Nov 2015 06:35:06 -0600

By Burgess Everett | 11/09/2015 07:33 AM EDT

TRADE'S PRESIDENTIAL SPEED BUMPS: What is a major accomplishment from President Barack Obama that's getting vaporized by Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump as well as getting criticism from Hillary Clinton? The Trans-Pacific Partnership, of course. Though both the House and Senate now need to cobble together just a bare majority for the massive pact over the next year, Seung Min Kim reports that the campaign trail is not being kind to TPP. "'We only got 13 Democrats in the Senate on TPA,' Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas) said. 'There is a concern that with Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side so fervently anti-trade, that I'm not sure whether those Democrat votes
 will be there.'" 

Over on the GOP side: Cornyn failed to mention of course, that Republicans aren't going to have the easiest time keeping their votes on the board either. "Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said he's 'absolutely against' TPP as written because of intellectual property provisions for biologics - a new class of drugs made from living cells - and pharmaceuticals, as well as the omission of tobacco from the TPP's investor protections. Fellow North Carolina Republican Sen. Richard Burr has similar concerns." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4a063ad6024313066f6101e904a9c76b636e9397d0b1363d46596b6bbf5818fc

Another big concern: The House Republicans and their primary season. The longer the vote is delayed, the more drama that will come with it. 

DEMS TARGET PURPLE, BLUE AND ... RED STATES? The Senate Democratic takeover strategy is now coming into focus. Sure, all the big races against the five most vulnerable incumbents and in Nevada and Florida have all materialized as expected. But the real drama is out on the frontiers of the 2016 Senate map: Places like Missouri, where Jason Kander is running stronger than expected against Sen. Roy Blunt, and Kentucky, where Democrats have come up empty with a challenger to Sen. Rand Paul. "I'm feeling very, very good. But we're a year out," said Sen. Jon Tester of Montana, who leads the Senate Democrats' campaign arm. "A year is an eternity in politics." Democrats need four or five gains to
 pick up the Senate, but really, they will need even more to make it last given how badly the 2018 map looks for them. 

Scrambling the map: It's not just Missouri, but Arkansas and Arizona that show how many seats the Democrats are trying to put into play. "I don't blame 'em one bit," said Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), chairman of the NRSC. "We take every state seriously. So no, you'll never hear me saying we're a lock in a certain geographic area or a certain state." But Democrats have whiffed in North Carolina and don't have anyone to go in Georgia, Alaska and Iowa. The GOP knows the feeling: Just ask how the recruitment effort is going in Colorado and Connecticut. My story with Kevin Robillard: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4a063ad6024313067c90fb0ba0d657c95c156d4a9683bfb94b4b1a0934bf4ddf

Bullish assessments: This is the part of the cycle when both parties just say flatly they will win the election. "Absolutely we're going to win," Wicker boasted. "We intend to pick up some seats." Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid: "This minority, I think my members feel this isn't going to last very long."

WASTE NOT, WANT NOT: All this talk about Wastebooks had me excited for a Wastebook on how there are too many Wastebooks. Sen. Jeff Flake is planning a Wastebook, to pick up on Sen. Tom Coburn's work, but so is Sen. James Lankford. Then there's Sen. Dan Coats's "Waste of the Week" and Sen. Rand Paul has also been touting lots of budget cutting ideas. Lankford said there's no competitive element to the waste wars: "Dr. Coburn said there should have been 535 of these things." So you aren't worried about getting lost in the Wastebook wilderness? "Doesn't bother me at all." 

NOVEMBER IS FINALLY FOR REAL. Welcome to the Huddle, your play-by-play guide to everything Capitol Hill, where if you listen carefully you can already hear things slowing down. Please send tips to [email-masked] and follow along on Twitter @burgessev. 

TODAY IN CONGRESS - The House is in at noon and will vote at 6:30 p.m. on a host of suspensions. The Senate is in at 3 p.m. and will vote at 5:30 p.m. on the confirmation of Scott Allen to be United States Director of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

SNEAK PEEK -- BERNIE TOPS FORWARD 50: Forward is out with its 50 most influential Jews this morning and Huddle's got a breakdown of the big political names. Sen. Bernie Sanders is in the top five, described as pronouncing "fewer rs than Uncle Leo on 'Seinfeld.'" He's followed by: Evan Wolfson of Freedom to Marry, megadonor Sheldon Adelson, Haim Saban, Sen. Dianne Feinstein, Ann Lewis, Rep. Jerry Nadler, USCIS Director Leon Rodriguez, Wendy Sherman and, oh yeah, Sen. Chuck Schumer. Check out the Bernie clip here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4a063ad602431306c03d21952ec69aa68709f2d738b8fba9a020ab54737a346f | And the full list here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4a063ad6024313069896360ec8c83efa025a2ba60d149a2d4309929551de49eb

BAILING ON BUSH: Sen. Marco Rubio sure did a good job last week of building momentum in the Capitol for his candidacy as every day a new Republican lawmaker endorsed him for president. But that congressional charge comes at the expense of Jeb Bush, who many in the Capitol have been privately pulling for as the responsible Republican that can beat Hillary Clinton. "Rubio picked up three Senate endorsements last week - Sens. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), Steve Daines (R-Mont.) and Jim Risch (R-Idaho) - matching Bush ... 'His stock is up,' said a senior Republican senator of Rubio. The senator also expressed sympathy for Bush saying that the former Florida governor's decline 'must be a humbling
 experience.'" Bolton from The Hill: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4a063ad6024313068a1853dd14038a74be2acf4c90933c8d064e8eb994b0ccbf

THE DEMOCRATIC PURITY MOVEMENT: The battle between the right and business wings of the Republican Party is such old news that I nodded off briefly while typing this. But gradually things are getting more and more real on the Democratic side, exemplified by the rise of Sanders. Things will really explode if Democrats lose the presidency in 2016 after suffering so many legislative losses during the Obama era, so NJ's Andrea Drusch gets in on the ground floor with Tad Devine, Julian Mulvey, and Mark Longabaugh, who are working for Sanders and liberal Senate candidates. Devine: "If you let the insiders make decisions about candidates before anyone has even cast a vote, I think you run a great
 risk of the strongest candidate not being the nominee of your party." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4a063ad6024313067a810d8f21de5ff2a4fadb135388b37397a0de03e20dbf56

McCONNELL WANTS TO OUST SHELBY: Just making sure you all are paying attention. I rolled my eyes when Sen. Richard Shelby told me last week he expects a primary opponent in Alabama, but the man knew what was coming. "Jonathan McConnell, 33, of Homewood, launched his campaign Friday at Alabama Republican Party headquarters with a message that Shelby has been in office too long." Montgomery Advertiser: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4a063ad60243130622c47b0a6269f14bf072d79485fab7b7a09e3bf8564d9d6e

FRIDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER - Justin Arnold was the first to answer that Hawaii, Texas, Vermont and California were formerly countries before they became states, 

TODAY'S TRIVIA - Justin has today's question: This future senator got to "know his role" so to speak by playing one in an SNL sketch about a committee that, ironically, he now serves on. Name the current senator, the one he was playing, the committee and the hearing he participated in. The first person to correctly answer gets a mention in the next day's Huddle. Email me at [email-masked].

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