Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by Sinclair Broadcast Group: Louisiana governor's race Saturday — DSCC outraises NRSC — Burn rates burn Senate campaigns
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 20 Nov 2015 09:03:21 -0600

By Theodoric Meyer | 11/20/2015 10:01 AM EDT

With Scott Bland, Kevin Robillard, and Elena Schneider

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

BORN ON THE BAYOU - The biggest remaining election of 2015 is on Saturday, as GOP Sen. David Vitter and Democratic state Rep. John Bel Edwards face off in the Louisiana governor's race. Three big questions:

- Where do the non-Vitter Republicans go? Democratic and African-American turnout was up slightly as a share of the early runoff vote, compared to the October primary. But the decisions made by those who initially supported Republican candidates Scott Angelle and Jay Dardenne may be most important. Edwards' central runoff message has been to use Republicans, including Dardenne, to encourage fellow party members to get comfortable with voting for a Democrat instead of the scandal-plagued Vitter, whose old prostitution scandal has come up again and again. Edwards' odds of building on his 40 percent showing in the primary depend on sizable numbers voting for him instead of coming home to
 Vitter (or just throwing up their hands and staying home instead of voting).

- Did the Syria refugee issue change the race? Groups involved in the race kicked their spending into higher gear this week with a focus on the hot issue of blocking resettlement of Syrian refugees. The key question: Did all that heat and new TV advertising actually change a race that had almost always shown Edwards with a double-digit lead?

- How solid were the polls? This question is inextricably linked to the last one. The polls were way off in the last governor's race, in Kentucky, where they showed Democrat Jack Conway up and Republican Matt Bevin won big. Louisiana looms as another test for public polls' ability to point us to the actual election results. The crucial difference in Louisiana is that Edwards consistently hit the 50 percent mark in surveys in addition to leading. But we also don't know whether (or how much) fallout from the Paris attacks might have changed the race late, after public polling was finished.

FIRST IN SCORE - DSCC outraises NRSC in October: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee outraised the National Republican Senatorial Committee in October, pulling in about $3.8 million in the month to the NRSC's $2.3 million, according to the committees. But the NRSC continues to have more cash on hand, with $10.3 million in the bank to the DSCC's $9.6 million.

CASH HUSTLE - "The Senate's biggest spenders," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer and Elena Schneider: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=90adeca80f3ecf719f03a998085fb17c8114e744c5a65ffe06eb059b2919d274

A NEW LEADER - "Susana Martinez the new head of RGA," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard in Las Vegas: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=90adeca80f3ecf7199ddc1cc98e0a0c4f6cec7c75c8dbac3fb502ba5a723d0a2

Days until the Louisiana runoff: 1. Days until the 2016 election: 354.

Thanks for joining us. Email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about Chance the Rapper: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @kyledcheney.

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest and most diversified television broadcasting company in the country today, delivers not only TV, the primary medium for reaching potential voters, but also targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and native) ad solutions. Contact Alan Brittan @ 703-236-9673. Sinclair, busy - Making Political Ads Work! **

HOW THEY VOTED - Democrats in tough races back refugee screening bill: Nearly 50 House Democrats joined Republicans to pass a bill tightening screening procedures for Syrian refugees that President Barack Obama has threatened to veto, including many of those facing competitive races next year. Democratic Reps. Brad Ashford of Nebraska, Rick Nolan of Minnesota, Gwen Graham of Florida and Ami Bera and Scott Peters of California all backed the bill, as did a number of Democrats in safe districts and nearly every Republican in the House. Among Democrats running for Senate next year, only Florida Rep. Patrick Murphy voted for the bill. Rep. Alan Grayson, Murphy's more liberal primary opponent,
 voted against it, as did Reps. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, Loretta Sanchez of California, Ann Kirkpatrick of Arizona and Donna Edwards and Chris Van Hollen of Maryland.

- "One of the surprising votes of support came from U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.)," The Arizona Republic's Rebekah L. Sanders reports. "Sinema has touted her understanding of refugee communities as a former social worker in a predominantly immigrant and refugee area of Phoenix and as former president of the non-profit Community Outreach & Advocacy for Refugees. In 2007 she was the attorney for an Iraqi refugee who had waited in the U.S. for a background check and citizenship papers for two years. She blamed his nationality in part for the delay. 'They've had ample time to do this, even taking into consideration, if they want to, that he's from a Middle East country, which, from their
 view, represents a greater threat to our country than others,' she said at the time." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=90adeca80f3ecf71c5304e9f85df9d1cab5cfd8d59dfc1a915405acbe6899d0e

POLL NUMBERS - Poll: Feingold still leads Johnson in Wisconsin: Former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold is still leading GOP Sen. Ron Johnson in the Wisconsin Senate race, according to the latest Marquette University Law School poll, with 49 percent supporting Feingold and 38 percent supporting Johnson. Those numbers are essentially unchanged from Marquette's September poll, which showed 50 percent support for Feingold and 36 percent support for Johnson. Feingold remains better-known and better-liked than Johnson, with 42 percent of respondents viewing Feingold favorably and 36 percent viewing him unfavorably; 27 percent viewed Johnson favorably and 38 percent viewed him unfavorably.

- "Early polls are meaningless," Brian Reisinger, a spokesman for Johnson, responded in a statement. "Senator Feingold led all the early polls in 2010 until the people of Wisconsin proved the professional political class wrong. Voters fired Senator Feingold after 18 years in Washington for his big government record, and they'll do so again as they continue to see just how far he'll go to claw his way back."

GRAND PLANS - "How can Democrats win back the House? Rely on a midnight data ride from 'Revere,'" by The Washington Post's Paul Kane: "House Democrats, facing a potentially lengthy period in the political wilderness, are embarking on a long-term strategy to overhaul their data analysis with a dual goal of winning some seats in the short-term while also asserting control of the next redistricting process. After three straight elections left them in the House minority, Democrats are building a sweeping database to cull past and present polling, voter files, media advertising history and population trends for every competitive House district in the country. ... The ultimate goal is to capture
 as many House seats as possible and also to gain control of state legislatures to assure Democrats have a stronger hand in the decennial redistricting before the 2022 midterms." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=90adeca80f3ecf71c2661da222e0588748715889ebaefcdf547f8a83055107df

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "GOP group plans most aggressive anti-Trump campaign yet," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "John Kasich has attacked Donald Trump relentlessly in debates and now his super PAC is planning to invest $2.5 million in the most aggressive takedown of the poll leader yet - on behalf of an increasingly anxious GOP establishment. The attack, according to a blueprint shared with POLITICO, will play out over the next two months on radio, TV, mail and online in New Hampshire. Strategists with the pro-Kasich group, called New Day for America, say the budget for the anti-Trump campaign is likely to grow." It's also a strategy to reinvigorate Kasich's flagging candidacy as the New
 Hampshire primary grows nearer. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=90adeca80f3ecf712b072a4e26bba3c1206d0e012602fa28273dea29d549f2da

- In response, Trump has threatened to sue the super PAC: "Please be advised that in the event your ads contain any false, misleading, defamatory, or otherwise tortious statements or representations regarding Mr. Trump's businesses or his brand, we will not hesitate to seek immediate legal action to prevent such distribution and hold you and your organizations jointly and severally liable to the fullest extent of the law for any damages resulting therefrom," Alan Garten, a Trump lawyer, wrote in a letter to two of the super PAC's strategists after POLITICO's story ran. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=90adeca80f3ecf71066058714b7c8fb71347dd59f19de34c8dc9e1253536d573

- "GOP governors blame Congress for presidential struggles," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard in Las Vegas: This was supposed to be the year that governors like Scott Walker and Jeb Bush would shoot to the top of the GOP field. Instead, political outsiders (Ben Carson, Donald Trump) and senators (Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz) are leading the polls - and Republican governors say Congress is to blame. "When you look at what has happened over the past year, we've got [Mitch] McConnell and [John] Boehner running the Senate and House, a lot of things wouldn't be any different than if Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi were in office," Texas Gov. Greg Abbott told Campaign Pro in an interview at the
 Republican Governors Association conference. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=90adeca80f3ecf71d52ef88e1e36ae92feb2ba437264fb304a9e2e8f117c1f34

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Can you tell me which of these rattlers won't bite you? Sure some of them won't, but tell me which ones so we can bring them into the house." - Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller in a Facebook post on Wednesday. The words were posted above two photos: one of a tangle of rattlesnakes and another of a crowd of refugees. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=90adeca80f3ecf712951fe28731bcc2d9d2e9baf1023ee8e2fedd5201d69aa18

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: The race for influence in the 2016 election cycle is gaining speed. Everyone is looking to reach as big of an audience as possible and get significant portions of that audience motivated and educated enough to vote and mobilize probable supporters. As the pace quickens, more will be trying to find an edge to influence voters their way. Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest and most diversified television broadcasting company in the country today, can help you break through the clutter. Utilizing both TV, the primary medium for reaching potential voters and targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and native) ad solutions, Sinclair
 Makes Political Ads Work! The bottom line is the bottom line - winning elections. At the Sinclair Broadcast Group, we have the ad tools necessary to help you to persuade, enlighten and activate voters. Contact Alan Brittan, Sinclair's Director of Political Ads for more details @ 703-236-9673. **

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