Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by Sinclair Broadcast Group: GOP fears Trump's ripple effects down-ballot — Gun control rises in Democratic primaries — DeSantis super PAC touts finance operatives
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 09 Dec 2015 09:01:00 -0600

By Elena Schneider | 12/09/2015 09:59 AM EDT

With Scott Bland, Kevin Robillard and Theodoric Meyer 

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

NOT WAKING FROM TRUMP NIGHTMARE -- "Republicans fear Trump could jeopardize control of Congress," by POLITICO's Jake Sherman and Anna Palmer: "...With the Iowa caucuses just 55 days away, Republicans are beginning to see Trump as a dire threat to their majorities on Capitol Hill. And they're warning that the GOP poll leader, who this week called for a ban on Muslims entering the country, will cause irreparable harm to the party. From vulnerable senators to top party officials, the fear is palpable and bursting into public view. Congressional Republicans face a tough 2016 landscape even without Trump. Senate Republicans are clinging to a four-seat majority as they defend 24 seats versus just
 10 for Democrats. And House Republicans are expecting to lose at roughly a dozen seats in 2016. Trump's rhetoric, they fear, could cause those losses to grow substantially." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d798e770b9446bfbdf350d66f96390fbf011ecbec0989f7e05d1b7dd60bbbdbe

-- Democratic state parties are trying to capitalize: At least three states with 2016 gubernatorial races -- Indiana, New Hamsphire, and Vermont -- saw state Democratic Party organizations challenge the GOP on Trump's Muslim immigration comments Tuesday.

-- "GOP struggles to escape Trump trap," by POLITICO's Eli Stokols: "Trump's latest attention-grabbing statement lays bare the reality of a GOP in danger of seeing its brand irrevocably tarnished - and seemingly incapable of doing anything about it." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d798e770b9446bfb9f6dd26ccd45cf7e5997aa8a4dd15165bd0db71a9e114975

-- Nonetheless, "Donald Trump has extended his lead in New Hampshire, attracting 32 percent of support from Republican primary voters. But Marco Rubio is moving up, too, according to a new CNN/WMUR New Hampshire primary poll out Tuesday," POLITICO's Eliza Collins reported. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d798e770b9446bfb8d3dbdb6eaf88b54f097a43b48b225b9679970b207b96f54

FIRST IN SCORE -- Priorities USA, the super PAC supporting Hillary Clinton, released a web video Tuesday that cuts together clips of Trump, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz's controversial stances on immigration. "The biggest problem for the Republican field isn't that Donald Trump's in first place, it's that the candidates who are looking to knock him off agree with him on just about everything and the moment Donald Trump loses his front-runner status Republicans will have an entirely new mess on their hands," said Justin Barasky, the group's communications director, in a statement. Watch the ad "Meet the Trumps" here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d798e770b9446bfbcb2cf8ed292b30f1e2bf369e71a74815e2270984111f2c51 

POLITICAL CARTOGRAPHY -- "SCOTUS wrestles with redistricting cases," by POLITICO's Josh Gerstein: "The politically contentious topic ofredistrictingwas front and center at the Supreme Court Tuesday" in a Texas case on using eligible voter numbers (instead of total population) to draw legislative districts and an Arizona case on allowing population to deviate between districts. "Frequent swing Justice Anthony Kennedy, a Republican appointee, did seem troubled that the districts in Texas differed by as much as 48 percent in terms of voting-age citizens. He asked why states can't take account both of overall population and the number of potential voters in each district." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d798e770b9446bfbbe038eb56adb266078c01cfac602fd8fc5ce912fe9343965

-- Supreme Court breathes new life into Maryland congressional-district challenge: In a decision issued Tuesday, the Court ruled unanimously that a single district court judge erred in dismissing a challenge to Maryland's congressional map, and that a three-judge district court panel should hear the case against Maryland's Democratic gerrymander.

Days until the 2016 election: 334.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about decomposition: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @kyledcheney.

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest and most diversified television broadcasting company in the country today, delivers not only TV, the primary medium for reaching potential voters, but also targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and native) ad solutions. Contact Alan Brittan @ 703-236-9673. Sinclair, busy - Making Political Ads Work! **

GUN CONTROL IN DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES -- John Oceguera, the former Nevada House Speaker who's locked in a four-way Democratic NV-04 primary, renounced his National Rifle Association membership in an open letter this week, launching him into the gun control debate. "My decision to renounce my membership hopefully spurs others to get the NRA to think about their hardline approach," he told Campaign Pro, saying that his decision stemmed from personal concerns (his father, a domestic abuser, killed a woman and himself with a gun) and current events (Congress voting down a pair of gun control measures a day after the San Bernardino attacks). "Enough is enough," he said. 

-- Oceguera's gun move comes with a catch: He acknowledged that he's been "fairly pro-gun" in the past. (The Las Vegas Sun wrote in August 2011 that Oceguera was one of two Democrats "not gun-shy about embracing the NRA" as he eyed a 2012 run in Nevada's Republican-leaning 3rd District.) But he said that in the legislature, Democrats and Republicans worked together "to come up with sensible solutions for guns. But on the federal level, that's not what's happening. The NRA has a stranglehold on Congress." 

DESANTIS DOUBLE-DOWN -- Pro-DeSantis super PAC's finance hires, via POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: Fighting for Florida Fund, the super PAC that raised more than $1 million in its first quarter backing Senate candidate and Republican Rep. Ron DeSantis, tells POLITICO Florida it has hired state finance consultant Rick Porter and national finance consultant Erin DeLullo. 

-- "Erin has been the secret weapon behind some of the most prominent conservative politicians in America," said PAC adviser Nelson Warfield. DeLullo led Sen. Ted Cruz's national and PAC fundraising in 2012 and advised Texas Gov. Rick Perry's presidential campaign earlier this year. DeLullo, wife of prominent conservative columnist Matt Lewis, has raised money for other Senate and House campaigns, state attorneys general and other national conservative groups. Porter has worked for Florida CFO Jeff Atwater, former state House Republican leader Adam Hasner, and the Republican Party of Florida. Porter has also worked on presidential, statewide and congressional campaigns including Rudy
 Giuliani and Perry, the National Republican Congressional Committee, and the Republican National Committee. 

SCORE INTERVIEW --  HOGAN ON #MDSen: "IT'S VERY DIFFICULT" -- Campaign Pro caught up with Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan at the Republican Governors Association. Here's the transcript, edited for length and clarity.

-- Q: Is there any chance Republicans can win Maryland's Senate race? What do the potential GOP nominees have to do to make that a competitive race? A: "It's very difficult. First of all, it's an entire different universe of voters. There are a couple hundred thousand more people coming out to vote in that race than voted in my race, and they're different voters, and they're more Democratic, they're more liberal. We've elected two Republicans in thirty years in a presidential year. George H.W. Bush won in 1988 and we last a U.S. Senator in 1980 or something like that. My race was nearly impossible to pull off. Our entire focus was on the economy, on creating jobs. It's a whole different set
 of issues when you're talking about who you're going to send to represent you in Washington. I'd like to think that a Republican could have a chance, but quite frankly, it's a very difficult uphill battle. It's going to be tough competitive."

-- Q: Do you think the Republican Party needs to embrace comprehensive immigration reform in some way? A: "Sure they do. We have to come up with a solution. We've been kicking the can down the road. Both parties have to get serious about it, not just Republicans. Everybody keeps saying for decades, we're going to do something about this problem, no one ever does, and that's what's so frustrating to everybody in America."

-- Q: Does that solution include a pathway to citizenship? A: "Absolutely."

-- Subscribers can read the full interview here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d798e770b9446bfbbedfb3f93ef9b723b00e4e1d9c43d19ea29072d1466a3eb7

FOLLOWING THE MONEY -- "Club for Growth backs Ellmers' primary challenger," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d798e770b9446bfb75e77c3f172eda3d9b84549d2e1f5e1fa2005b7e169e3cc3

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "GOP adds another 2016 debate," by POLITICO's Hadas Gold: "The RNC has added a presidential primary debate to its schedule for Jan. 14, 2016, hosted by the Fox Business Network. The debate will take place at the North Charleston Coliseum & Performing Arts Center in North Charleston, S.C., two days after the State of the Union address." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d798e770b9446bfbc68412f324195f2f765fe6b56c313e00f942834a114f39c6

-- "TV stations launch TV ad to promote buying TV ads," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=96d83c96ebf07a12e8ecdc451759e8d6048d7f713a34b9bd28e8604671c0c64d

-- "Carson campaign cancels slew of post-Christmas Iowa ads," by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney: "Ben Carson's campaign has canceled nearly $700,000 worth of ads in Iowa, according to sources tracking the campaign ad war. The ad time, slated for five media markets beginning Dec. 28 and ending Feb. 1, was canceled Tuesday without explanation." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d798e770b9446bfb44f76f66c8cdebeed168a7fce891388f8faac1ba3f916af2

-- "Pro-Cruz super PAC Seeks to capitalize on polling gains," by the Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek: "Keep the Promise I, one of four main super PACs backing the Texas senator, announced Tuesday the groups are spending over $600,000 on the new push, which comes as Cruz looks more and more like a top-tier candidate nationally and in the Hawkeye State. On Monday, Cruz took his first-ever lead in an early voting state poll, beating billionaire Donald Trump 24 percent to 19 percent in a Monmouth University survey of likely caucus-goers in Iowa." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=96d83c96ebf07a124d8cb9dc8b8135c97348732f35271e027eaf69c4ff345849 

-- "Trump's N.H. supporters stand by him - again," by The Boston Globe's Akilah Johnson: "Even as Republicans around the country denounce him, many of Donald Trump's backers in the first-in-the-nation primary state on Tuesday remained steadfast in their support for the GOP front-runner after his controversial call for a ban on Muslims entering the country. In more than two dozen interviews with voters around New Hampshire, supporters repeatedly expressed fears about the recent string of terrorist attacks and what they saw as a need for the United States to protect its borders. 'He's my guy,' said Steve Ball, a 37-year-old from Rochester, N.H. 'That needed to be done. Look what's happening
 in Europe, what happened in France.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=96d83c96ebf07a12dc4d7828310af2a4d2038604bb21b6b6a9644ae623d82fe3

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Once you attack us in our home districts, there's really no going back from that ... You can't walk into a meeting and say, 'Let's all be on the same team' while at the same moment you're attacking members of the team. It was the beginning of the end." -- Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R-S.C.), a Freedom Caucus leader, on discovering that American Action Network was running ads against him at home earlier this year, the New Yorker reported. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=96d83c96ebf07a12a2aada9d8b9ec1bef069927000d36720183031f5de9fae73 

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: The race for influence in the 2016 election cycle is gaining speed. Everyone is looking to reach as big of an audience as possible and get significant portions of that audience motivated and educated enough to vote and mobilize probable supporters. As the pace quickens, more will be trying to find an edge to influence voters their way. Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest and most diversified television broadcasting company in the country today, can help you break through the clutter. Utilizing both TV, the primary medium for reaching potential voters and targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and native) ad solutions, Sinclair
 Makes Political Ads Work! The bottom line is the bottom line - winning elections. At the Sinclair Broadcast Group, we have the ad tools necessary to help you to persuade, enlighten and activate voters. Contact Alan Brittan, Sinclair's Director of Political Ads for more details @ 703-236-9673. **

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