Subject: POLITICO’s Morning Score, presented by Pandora: Trump hits the airwaves with first TV ad — State chambers of commerce get more politically involved — Our races to watch in 2016
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 04 Jan 2016 09:02:04 -0600

By Theodoric Meyer | 01/04/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard, Scott Bland and Daniel Lippman

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

TRUMP TAKES TO THE AIR - "Donald Trump's provocative first TV ad raises the temperature of the GOP race," by The Washington Post's Robert Costa and Philip Rucker: Donald Trump has vowed to spend $2 million a week on TV ads in the runup to the Iowa caucuses, and his first ad debuts Monday. It "begins with a shot of President Obama and Hillary Clinton. Then comes a U.S. battleship launching a cruise-missile strike. From there it moves swiftly through an explosive montage: The suspects in the recent California terrorist attack. Shadowy figures racing across the U.S.-Mexico border. Islamic State militants. The narrator, a deep-voiced man, speaks ominously: 'That's why he's calling for a
 temporary shutdown of Muslims entering the United States, until we can figure out what's going on. He'll quickly cut the head off ISIS and take their oil. And he'll stop illegal immigration by building a wall on our southern border that Mexico will pay for.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d073ba2df8149b87b5c44877c895f3ba7056c4a750177ccb1edc4af3dc9c88de

- John Kasich's campaign is also going up on the air in New Hampshire, with a spot that emphasizes the Ohio governor's "hardscrabble" beginnings in "a rusty steel town" and implores Americans to "never give up," The Columbus Dispatch reports. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d073ba2df8149b87db0252ef60e1ccb6b8859e05900550a81b5060a018f16efc

OUTSIDE MONEY - "Following U.S. Chamber's lead, state chambers get increasingly political" by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d073ba2df8149b870595945085aa98f223877441de3f45e58c039c588b0f4e51

FOURTH-QUARTER HAUL - Hassan raises $2.1 million for N.H. Senate race: Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, who announced she'd challenge GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte in early October, raised nearly $2.1 million in the fourth quarter, WMUR reports. The haul gives her about $1.5 million in cash on hand. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d073ba2df8149b8742727d65470c0bb55b3cf2d70c6635cf4509ad1f0bdd3d72

Days until the 2016 election: 309.

Thanks for joining us. It's finally 2016! You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about Carole King freaking out: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @kyledcheney.

WHAT TO WATCH THIS YEAR - "Top 9 primaries to watch in 2016," by the Campaign Pro team: Two years after Dave Brat took out House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) in a massive upset, we've come up with nine incumbents facing potentially difficult primaries this year. 

- Rep. Frank Guinta (R-N.H.): Guinta came under heavy pressure to resign last year from GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte and other prominent New Hampshire Republicans after admitting to campaign finance violations. Dan Innis, the former University of New Hampshire business school dean who ran a strong campaign against Guinta last year when the seat was held by a Democrat, is challenging him again. But state Rep. Pamela Tucker is also considering a run, which could potentially split the anti-Guinta vote and help the incumbent win the nomination again.

- Rep. Martha Roby (R-Ala.): Incumbents could get a sense of the electorate's mood on March 1, the very first day of the primaries. Becky Gerritson, who could be one of the tea party's clearest avatars among next year's candidates, has gone after Roby for voting for a spending bill that would fund Amtrak, among other things. "This is a very conservative district and every conservative organizations rates her tenure in Congress a failure," Gerritson said at her campaign's launch party.

- Reps. Scott DesJarlais (R-Tenn.), Renee Ellmers (R-N.C.), Gene Green (D-Texas), Mike Honda (D-Calif.) and Bobby Rush (D-Ill.) and Sens. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.) round out the list. Read the full writeup: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d073ba2df8149b878629fee93414016aaea227fd1b6913f64309492bff9b9093

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WHAT TO WATCH, PART II - "11 'amazing races' to watch to understand the 2016 elections," by the Campaign Pro team - Indiana governor and NJ-05: Gay-rights movement imperils two Republicans: "Both Gov. Mike Pence and Rep. Scott Garrett face danger in what once seemed like sure-fire reelection runs, and it all comes down to gay rights. Pence was largely cruising through his first term before the state legislature last spring passed a religious freedom bill that impinged on gay rights. The resulting backlash took a toll on Pence's approval numbers and even led business-oriented Republicans to float a primary challenge to the sitting governor. ... Garrett has never drawn less than 55 percent of
 the vote. But since POLITICO reported that Garrett wouldn't give cash to the National Republican Congressional Committee because it recruited and backed gay candidates, donors have helped his Democratic opponent, former Clinton staffer and Microsoft executive Josh Gottheimer, raise over $1 million to take Garrett down in 2016."

- Louisiana's 3rd District: The tea party's long game in the House: "While [GOP Rep. Charles] Boustany's Senate campaign will get far more attention than the race to replace him, Boustany's open seat is a critical piece of the puzzle that is today's Congress. While Boustany, who was first elected in 2004, has racked up a 90-plus percent lifetime vote rating from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, ... Boustany's safe Republican House seat could elect a very different kind of Republican. The sum total of establishment departures and tea party victories in safe GOP House seats formed the critical mass that forced former Speaker John Boehner's departure in 2015."

- Read about all 11 races: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d073ba2df8149b87e06223f9724b9766a16b80a342df4580e190fbfbe1065afc

FIRST IN SCORE - Newsom has $8.2 million on for California gubernatorial bid: Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom raised $3.3 million in the second half of 2015 for his run for California governor, according to a source close to the campaign. The haul gives him more than $8.2 million in cash on hand nearly three years before the election.

RETIREMENT WATCH - "Sources: Rep. Jim McDermott won't run again in 2016," by KING5's Natalie Brand: "McDermott plans to make an 'important' announcement Monday, according to an advisory sent to the media ... sources with longtime experience in Democratic Party politics told KING 5 that McDermott will say he is not running again." McDermott was already facing an intra-party challenge from state Rep. Brady Walkinshaw. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d073ba2df8149b870878767e960e411a1245d5ac51b53a0ea200560b63979f7d

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "One year, two races," by The Washington Post's Dan Balz, Philip Rucker, Robert Costa and Matea Gold: Some of The Post's top political reporters talked with nearly every Republican presidential candidate about what exactly happened in 2015, an exceptionally tumultuous year for the party. Among the highlights: Jeb Bush met with Mitt Romney nearly a year ago and told Bush about private poll that showed Romney doing well in early states. "Romney also said he confronted Bush with his fears about his candidacy: 'Jeb, to be very honest, I think it's very hard for you to post up against Hillary Clinton and to separate yourself from the difficulty of the W. years and
 compare them with the Clinton years.' He said Bush responded by saying that 'he was going to make his campaign about the future, not about the past.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d073ba2df8149b87402cfa256837f9dc8d2c7492d81b4ea78971b24fcd8de832

- "How Jeb Bush hopes to save his candidacy," by The New York Times' Ashley Parker in Hialeah, Fla.: Jeb Bush's campaign and his allied super PAC - which is not legally allowed to coordinate with - have a long-shot plan to win the Republican nomination. The main elements: Keep attacking Donald Trump. Don't finish lower than fifth in Iowa. Beat out Chris Christie, Marco Rubio and John Kasich in New Hampshire. Push for Lindsey Graham's endorsement. Deploy his brother in South Carolina after the New Hampshire primary (maybe). And, on the super PAC side, don't let up on the TV ads. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d073ba2df8149b87a20448678c6c37d9e53681cacbad3612b941b7727bc8778d

- A fifth Ted Cruz super PAC is booking millions in TV ads: Stand for Truth, a new super PAC supporting Ted Cruz, says it will start a $2 million TV ad campaign in Iowa and another $2 million campaign in South Carolina this month, CNN's Theodore Schleifer reports. Little is known about the super PAC, which was formed in November and does not feature a variation on the "Keep the Promise" names of the other four super PACs backing Cruz. The group won't have to reveal its donors until the Federal Election Commission filing deadline at the end of the month. The Keep the Promise I super PAC has placed a $700,000 ad buy of its own. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d073ba2df8149b87d8fc3611d2f49b0b8f652aa2250d9045854527911f326f30

- A super PAC backing Rand Paul, meanwhile, is booking ads in Iowa: PurplePAC, a super PAC overseen by longtime libertarian activist and Cato Institute co-founder Ed Crane, has reserved roughly $500,000 in television time in Des Moines and Cedar Rapids in the final two weeks ahead of the Iowa caucuses, according to a media buyer and records with the Federal Communications Commission," POLITICO's Shane Goldmacher reports. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d073ba2df8149b8787f1379cca4b98f168504250bad5e62fba76e26e05664632

- Fourth-quarter fundraising numbers keep rolling in: Ben Carson's campaign raised about $23 million in the fourth quarter. Ted Cruz raised about $20 million. Hillary Clinton raised $38 million and Bernie Sanders raised about $33 million.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I guess the Bush super PAC is trying to be as creative as they can to spend every dime before Jeb drops out. They're certainly on track to do just that." - John Weaver, the top strategist for Ohio Gov. John Kasich, on Right to Rise's new TV ads. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d073ba2df8149b877453115662048dcfa9543091da3f450cd1033a2d6f7d98fd

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