Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by Pandora: Steve Israel won't run for reelection — New Senate race rankings — Year of the self-funder?
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 06 Jan 2016 09:02:51 -0600

By Theodoric Meyer | 01/06/2016 10:01 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard and Elena Schneider

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

CALLING IT QUITS - "Rep. Steve Israel, member of Democratic leadership, retiring," by POLITICO's Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan: "New York Democratic Rep. Steve Israel, the party's chief House messaging strategist, is not running for re-election, the second veteran Democrat to retire this week. Israel's retirement, first reported by Newsday, opens up his Long Island seat, which is split evenly between Democrats and Republicans, but has been carried twice by President Barack Obama. 'I considered this decision deeply, but ultimately, I want to be a team player and ensure that my district, which is the only competitive district in House Democratic Leadership, remains in the hands of Democrats
 when I leave,' Israel said in a statement. "The 2016 presidential turnout will help assure that.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b347610559506fedd23b4ddbfe64575fe00508630dc4d27d92944d78a82385d

- "I don't think I can spend another day in another call room making another call begging for money," Israel told The New York Times. "I always knew the system was dysfunctional. Now it is beyond broken." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b347610559506fef8720a57dbe1edd9c3e92ac77aa626ce932f9cf056f54289

- Potential candidates: Hours after the news broke, GOP state Sen. Jack Martins said in a statement that he was "strongly considering running" for the suddenly competitive seat. "I plan to discuss this with my wife and 4 daughters and look forward to the continued conversations with the men and women who have encouraged me to consider this run in recent months," Martins said. Other potential candidates on the Republican side, Newsday reports, include state Assemblyman Andrew Raia, Huntington Councilman Eugene Cook, state Assemblyman Chad Lupinacci and Suffolk Legislator Robert Trotta. Potential Democratic candidates include Suffolk County Legislator Steve Stern, state Assemblyman Charles
 Lavine, North Hempstead Councilwoman Anna Kaplan, and Democratic National Committeeman Robert Zimmerman.

MOST LIKELY TO FLIP - "Senate race rankings: Battle for the Senate takes shape," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b347610559506fe883cc43d0484b5245c468e3048a7ce88481bd2dc03b377c7

Days until the Iowa caucuses: 26. Days until the 2016 election: 307.

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SELF-FUNDER CALLS IT QUITS - Democrat Mary Lawrence, the biggest self-funder besides Trump so far, drops out of MN-02 race: The Minneapolis-based doctor dropped her bid for retiring GOP Rep. John Kline's seat, saying that without her party's endorsement she couldn't continue "in good conscience." Health care exec Angie Craig was the front-runner for the Democratic Party nomination. "At this juncture, it is clear that I would not win the DFL endorsement through the caucus process," Lawrence said in a statement. "While I wholeheartedly believe that I would win the Primary, and go on to win the General, this pursuit would deeply divide and harm our party."

- Lawrence had loaned her own campaign nearly $1.2 million through the third quarter, making her the most prolific self-funding federal candidate of 2015, Donald Trump excepted. Watch out for at least three other million-dollar self-funders already in primaries, all Democrats: CO-06 doctor Perry Haney and NH-01 businessman Shawn O'Connor, who are fighting against more established candidates, and FL-18 businessman Randy Perkins, whose entry already cleared the field of another touted Democratic candidate.

- Other congressional self-funders to watch: Louisiana Rep. John Fleming (he already pumped over a half-million into his account by the third quarter, ahead of his Senate bid) and AZ-01 candidate Gary Kiehne (another half-million already for a crowded GOP primary).

FIRST IN SCORE - Priorities USA Action goes up with new web video: Priorities USA Action, the super PAC backing Hillary Clinton, launched a new web video today contrasting clips from remarks on national security by Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio with one of Clinton's speeches. There's no money behind the video, but Justin Barasky, a spokesman for the super PAC, said that could come at a later date.

- Watch the video: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b347610559506fecd9feed21e2898fa63bf1dd55ad14c9a224199200ce7e47d

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Trump quietly builds a data juggernaut," by POLITICO's Kenneth P. Vogel and Darren Samuelsohn: Donald Trump's Republican rivals are clinging to the hope that his supporters won't actually show up at the polls, "but POLITICO has learned that his campaign has "assembled an experienced data team to build sophisticated models to transform fervor into votes. The team is led by two low-profile former Republican National Committee data strategists, Matt Braynard and Witold Chrabaszcz, and includes assistance from the political data outfit L2, according to multiple sources familiar with the effort. The data push is focused on integrating information Trump has collected
 through his campaign website and at voter rallies on non-traditional or unregistered supporters. It also includes commercial data obtained from the RNC and other sources, in an effort to mobilize voters in key early states, the sources said." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b347610559506fe03311a35ab2373278485d7f1895566a261261d8dab6dabf8

- "Donald Trump's free media bonanza," by POLITICO's Hadas Gold: "Donald Trump reserved nearly $2 million for a seven-day ad blitz in Iowa and New Hampshire this week. But the billionaire real-estate mogul and master media manipulator also got hundreds of thousands of dollars' worth of free airtime over on Monday - and even more in seemingly endless coverage and discussion of what amounts to a glorified press release touting his candidacy. Trump's new 30-second spot, released Monday morning, was played in its entirety 40 times on the cable news networks between Monday and Tuesday morning, according to POLITICO's count." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b347610559506fe2487c991338c373466434ba5e1b80f601931c8bd2ed5ac95

- "Marco Rubio seeks new HQ," by POLITICO's Anna Palmer and Shane Goldmacher: "Marco Rubio, long an advocate of a slim and trim campaign operation, is now going big. The Florida Republican has outgrown his campaign headquarters on Capitol Hill and is in search of new and bigger space - as soon as possible. Rubio's paid payroll has doubled in size since Oct. 1, according to a Rubio aide. He had 54 people on staff then. Now he has more than 100," although more than half of them don't work out of the D.C. headquarters. "The move to find bigger space inside the Beltway also comes after vocal concerns from billionaire donors like Paul Singer that Rubio was running too small an operation, one
 bereft of the scope needed to win the White House." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b347610559506fe7d6af5fc4e6c04bfd5d9dab6efa7ec4affc311c6e3c9d346

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I am going to stick with Fonzie jumping the shark." - Ted Cruz, who tweeted a YouTube video of the character Fonzie "jumping the shark" on "Happy Days" in response to Donald Trump questioning whether his birth in Canada to an American mother disqualified him from the presidency. Cruz declined to elaborate on his tweet when asked by reporters. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=8b0cb32ada1cca07f07cc0b62b02d8724aea1f9cbb56aa15aa0562ba711e9616

** A message from Pandora: Pandora offers precision targeting solutions to target voters by age, gender, location, political affiliation and more with premium audio, video and display advertising solutions across all devices and platforms.

Pandora's monthly voting-age listeners by state: New Hampshire: 287,800; Iowa: 577,000; Nevada: 667,700; South Carolina: 961,400; Ohio: 2.3 million; Florida: 4.7 million

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*Nielsen Study June 2015 **

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