Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: IOWA COUNTDOWN … THREE days — #GOPDebate, without Trump, puts Cruz in hot seat — Katie McGinty lines up big-money backers
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 29 Jan 2016 09:02:29 -0600

By Elena Schneider | 01/29/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Scott Bland, Theodoric Meyer and Kevin Robillard

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

WITHOUT THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM - "Trump-free debate puts Cruz in the hot seat," by POLITICO's Eli Stokols in Des Moines, Iowa: "Ted Cruz finally got his moment in the center of the debate stage - but with Donald Trump absent, he became the main target who had no one else to punch. As the Republican poll leader commanded a rival event down the road, part of Trump's boycott of the debate just four days ahead of the Iowa caucuses, Cruz engaged in some shadowboxing while withstanding tough criticism from a number of rivals on the stage. ... Marco Rubio, who is rising in the polls and likely to finish third behind Cruz and Trump in Iowa, followed Cruz by turning from Trump, who he dismissed as
 "an entertainer" and "the greatest show on earth," to Hillary Clinton, a target who enables him to emphasize his primary selling point - electability." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=71aca56c297a9245a6d44c954f2608450e872eb3b8ac6fac354bb01c3df2f947

THE CAVALRY - "McGinty assembles big-spending outside backers ahead of primary," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: Katie McGinty hasn't been able to build a cash advantage yet ahead of Pennsylvania Democrats' three-way Senate primary. But she is locking down a collection of big-money outside backers that have played pivotal roles in recent Democratic Senate primaries, with the League of Conservation Voters joining EMILY's List behind McGinty on Thursday. More here:  http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=71aca56c297a9245149fabe8eb340f51e4ad8070ac767994aac9e9a0b78d0d79

TV TIMEOUT - Pro-Sittenfeld super PAC prepares $700,000 worth of contrast ads: "The super PAC supporting P.G. Sittenfeld for Senate will start airing TV ads contrasting Sittenfeld and fellow Democrat Ted Strickland in mid-February ... The group's TV ad is not yet available, but Paul De Marco, a Cincinnati attorney who also helped form the pro-Sittenfeld group, said the spot will be about gun control." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=71aca56c297a92459956accc743b69e2db44b67ef3c471587fe8ca5c6845496a

- MD-08 newcomer makes big TV buy right away: Democrat David Trone just jumped into the crowded race to replace Rep. Chris Van Hollen, and local TV-watchers are going to start hearing about him quickly. Trone (a self-funder who owns the large network of Total Wine and More stores) has booked $790,000 of ads on D.C. broadcast from today through Feb. 8, plus an additional $78,000 on cable, according to a media-buying source. See one of his ads here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=71aca56c297a9245575f2566d8f2897f29539ac774d5803c1f7ce75d0c4349ba

Days until the Iowa caucuses: 3. Days until the 2016 election: 284.

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FIRST IN SCORE - Starrett outraises DesJarlais in TN-04: Grant Starrett, the young lawyer challenging GOP Rep. Scott DesJarlais in the primary in the Tennessee's 4th District, outraised DesJarlais again in the fourth quarter, adding to his substantial cash advantage. Starrett raised about $92,000 in the quarter, his campaign said, giving him about $729,000 in cash on hand. Most of that is left over from the second quarter, when Starrett announced his run and rapidly raised more than $733,000. His fundraising has dropped very sharply in subsequent quarters, but he still managed to outpace DesJarlais, who raised roughly $54,000 in the fourth quarter, his campaign said. The incumbent had
 roughly $250,000 in cash on hand.

FIRST IN SCORE - House Majority PAC raises $5.8 million in second half of 2015: House Majority PAC, the flagship Democratic super PAC for House races, raised $5.8 million in the second half of 2015, giving it more than $6 million in cash on hand. Alixandria Lapp, House Majority PAC's executive director, said the $8 million that the super PAC raised in total last year was the biggest haul ever for an off-year. It gives the super PAC substantially more cash on hand than the $4.4 million it had heading into 2014.

- Pro-Toomey super PAC raises $315,000 in second half of 2015: Prosperity for Pennsylvania, a super PAC supporting GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, raised nearly $315,000 in the second half of 2015, according to its Federal Election Commission report. The haul gives it $1.1 million in cash on hand. (Toomey's campaign reported $9.6 million in cash on hand.) The super PAC's biggest donor was Jeff Yass, a Pennsylvania investor who gave $100,000. Prosperity for Pennsylvania also refunded $75,000 in contributions from Toomey's leadership PAC - contributions that could have violated campaign finance rules if the super PAC had used the money to support Toomey. The leadership PAC asked for the money to be
 returned in July, as PoliticsPA reported at the time, to avoid "distraction and false controversy."

MORE FOURTH QUARTER NUMBERS - "House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi raised more than $40.1 million in the 2016 cycle, her largest fundraising haul since joining Democratic leadership in 2002. ... That sum includes $30.4 million for the DCCC," by POLITICO's Lauren French: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=71aca56c297a92455d2760bbfef88b4828285fe019d68d6ee768c4ead4fdfc07

Pennsylvania: GOP Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania raised $1.9 million in the fourth quarter, his campaign said on Thursday, giving him $9.6 million in cash on hand for his reelection bid.

MD-08: Kathleen Matthews raised just under $504,000 in the fourth quarter, with $1.1 million in cash on hand, her campaign confirmed. 

OH-14: GOP Rep. Dave Joyce raised about $321,000 in the fourth quarter, according to his Federal Election Commission report, giving him about $781,000 in cash on hand as prepares to face down a tea party challenger. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=71aca56c297a92453dcab2828715ae610677d85f2886624d08ab1dd54b7ec610 

REPORTS WE'RE WAITING FOR - The fundraising numbers we'll be looking for: While many candidates have leaked how much they raised, more than a dozen Senate candidates' totals are still a mystery ahead of Sunday's FEC deadline. Same for scores of House candidates. Here are the numbers we're most interested in learning:

- Senate: In Pennsylvania, GOP Sen. Pat Toomey and Democrat Katie McGinty have revealed their totals. But we're still waiting on numbers from Joe Sestak and John Fetterman, the other two Democrats in the race. In Wisconsin, Democrat Russ Feingold has trumpeted that he'd raised $2.7 million, but GOP Sen. Ron Johnson hasn't announced his totals. In Florida, Patrick Murphy, the Democratic establishment's preferred candidate, had another strong quarter, but his primary rival, Alan Grayson, has stayed silent. So have Republicans David Jolly and Carlos Lopez-Cantera. And in the high-profile Democratic primary in Maryland, both Chris Van Hollen's and Donna Edwards' totals remain a mystery.

- House: GOP Rep. Frank Guinta has struggled to raise money since Sen. Kelly Ayotte, his fellow New Hampshire Republican, called for his resignation last spring. Did Dan Innis, his GOP challenger in New Hampshire's 1st District, managed to outraise him? In New Jersey's 5th District, we're watching to see whether Republican Rep. Scott Garrett will tick back up after backlash in the financial world for his comments about gay candidates. And we'll be looking to see who raised the most in crowded GOP primaries in two open seats, Arizona's 1st District and Ohio's 8th District. 

IN THE CLUB - Club for Growth endorses Thomas in FL-02: The Club for Growth PAC will endorse Mary Thomas today, giving her an advantage in her race against Neal Dunn for the GOP nomination in Florida's 2nd District, which became near-solidly Republican after redistricting despite being held by Democratic Rep. Gwen Graham.

- EMILY's List announced Friday that it endorsed Democrat Lisa Blunt Rochester, former state secretary of labor, in her primary bid for Delaware's open at-large seat.

ONLINE AD TRENDS - Survey recommends second-screen engagement for campaigns: Rubicon Project, a digital advertising marketplace, is out with a new poll showing how online and especially mobile media consumption has changed in recent years - a trend that could spark important changes in how the 2016 presidential campaigns advertise to voters ... Though TV is still the principal way campaigns try to reach voters, the poll pointed to DVR use - and skipping through TV commercials - as potential barriers for advertisers, while digital video consumption and game-playing has grown. "In many ways, the survey findings mirror what we've been seeing in trends in media consumption for a long time,"
 said Amy Gershkoff, who served as the director of media planning for President Barack Obama's reelection campaign. She is now the chief data officer at Zynga, a social game developer that partners with Rubicon Project on some ventures. 

- "Already in 2012 we were seeing mobile as an increasingly important way that people were consuming content, but in 2012 it wasn't a huge parts of how campaigns, including Obama's, were thinking about media strategy," Gershkoff said. ... 36 percent of the likely 2016 voters surveyed in the Rubicon-commissioned poll said they spent more time online than watching TV, while an equal share said they spent the same amount of time on both media. That's partially driven by the 49 percent of respondents who said they have a second screen, like a mobile device, tablet, or computer, open always or most of the time when watching TV. See more here: politico.pro/1JLBsF9

WISCONSIN POLLING DATA - Former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold maintained a substantial lead over GOP incumbent Ron Johnson in Marquette Law School's latest poll of the Wisconsin Senate race. Fifty percent of registered voters surveyed said they support Feingold, while 37 percent backed Johnson. That's little change from November, when Feingold earned 49 percent to Johnson's 38 percent in Marquette's survey.

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Clinton's Capitol Hill backers shrug off her struggles," by Lauren French and Seung Min Kim in Baltimore: "Barack Obama has performed political gymnastics to show he's neutral in the Democratic primary. But other elected Democrats have no such compunction: They're still all-in for Hilary Clinton despite her struggles to fend off Bernie Sanders. In interviews at the House Democratic retreat here and with senators in Washington, many lawmakers downplayed the surprisingly competitive nomination fight, predicting that Clinton will ultimately triumph to win the Democratic nomination." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=71aca56c297a9245061ed097cc440e17e8593bbce3835cdbb63f1bcec0775c69 

- "Bernie Sanders tops his rivals in use of outside money," the New York Times' Nicholas Confessore: "As he swung through Iowa this week, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont rarely passed up a chance to bash the rising tide of money in politics, a system he said on Tuesday was "corrupt and undermining American democracy." ... more super PAC money has been spent so far in express support of Mr. Sanders than for either of his Democratic rivals, including Hillary Clinton, according to Federal Election Commission records. ... Mr. Sander's unlikely rise to super PAC pre-eminence is, in part, the story of an unusual alignment of strategies by different outside groups, including Republican ones
 eager to bloody Mrs. Clinton and lift Mr. Sanders, whom conservatives believe will be easier to defeat in a general election." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b3a8d8804a26a9a7cea50f950c35c80c7043cd773ee10326bed5e483566d4d64 

- But Every Voice, a nonpartisan pro-campaign finance reform group, rated Sanders an "A-" for his position on the issue. Hillary Clinton and Martin O'Malley both received "B+" marks from the group, which will release its ratings today. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b3a8d8804a26a9a78e97174c83537638dca2269d861a79c071b258a091c98095 

LIVE FROM BRUSSELS: SAFE HARBOR, EU BAILOUTS AND A BELGIAN ALE: Do you have access to in-depth reporting about big decisions shaping the EU? POLITICO Pro, POLITICO's premium subscription service, teamed up with POLITICO Europe to bring you Pro's Europe Brief. Europe Brief draws on POLITICO resources in both Brussels and D.C. to provide you with the updates and analysis you need to stay a step ahead of of all things happening across the pond. Try it for free! Download a complimentary issue of Europe Brief today.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Putin is a one-horse country, oil and energy." - Ben Carson, who got tongue-tied at the #GOPDebate, POLITICO reported. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b3a8d8804a26a9a7eda939cb64b1bf42bd24fcf2713197cbc7142339c0a48310

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