Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: BREAKING THIS MORNING: Paul out — Clinton's comeback plan — Cortez Masto raises $1.3 million for Nevada Senate race
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 03 Feb 2016 09:02:04 -0600

By Theodoric Meyer | 02/03/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard and Elena Schneider

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

BREAKING THIS MORNING - "Rand Paul dropping out of White House race," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: politi.co/1KpQrou

WHAT'S NEXT? - "How Clinton plans to bounce back in New Hampshire," by POLITICO's Annie Karni: "Eight years ago New Hampshire was Hillary Clinton's savior and sanctuary - in 2016 it's just another stop on what she now knows will be a months-long slog of state primaries. ... On Tuesday, groggy campaign officials - fresh off a middle-of-the-night flight out of Des Moines - were not only downplaying their own chances of coming out on top amid polls showing Sanders on top by 20 or more points - they were lowering the significance of any victory here for Sanders, casting it as a nearly worthless inevitability for a nearly home-state senator. 'The home court advantage for Bernie makes the win an
 asterisk for him,' said a top Clinton campaign aide, reflecting the views of a half-dozen advisers interviewed by POLITICO over the last few days. Thus far, Clinton - and her husband Bill, a valued surrogate in the state's mostly-white rural and suburban counties - haven't indicated they planned to cut back on a week-long schedule of day-to-day campaigning, but one top Clinton official told POLITICO "schedules are always subject to change." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=04b74fafe1c9f12a4b865bc2b16a6f2b0456d173d00c0397a54a975279d96e7e

SENATE BILLS - Cortez Masto raised $1.3 million in fourth quarter but spent heavily: Nevada Democratic Senate candidate Catherine Cortez Masto raised $1.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2015, but her campaign spent slightly more than $800,000 in the same time, according to its latest filing with the Federal Election Commission. Cortez Masto has just under $2 million on hand, up about a half-million dollars from the $1.5 million on hand she posted after the third quarter. Her opponent, GOP Rep. Joe Heck, raised $1.2 million in the fourth quarter, The Las Vegas Sun reports, but held on to more of it, with $2.9 million in cash on hand. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=04b74fafe1c9f12a250a8c1ef818158c2f76c0b893b02bbe62a7663d2bad5cdd

- Harris outraises Sanchez in California Senate race: State Attorney General Kamala Harris again outraised her fellow Democrat Rep. Loretta Sanchez in California's Senate race, bringing in $1.9 million in the fourth quarter to Sanchez's $388,000. Sanchez raised a portion of the haul from the sale of her campaign headquarters, which she bought back in 2012 for $415,000 - an unusual step for a member of Congress. But now she's sold it for $475,000, with the $60,000 profit going toward her Senate campaign, The Sacramento Bee reports. Sanchez had $2.1 million in cash on hand at the end of the year. Harris, who spent $1.2 million, giving her $4 million on hand. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=04b74fafe1c9f12ab66413389d192635d503931afc4006e3bf674b98d9f7cfec

Days until the New Hampshire primary: 6. Days until the 2016 election: 279.

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HERE WE GO - Super PAC shells out six figures boosting Ellmers in NC-02: Defending Main Street, a super PAC affiliated with a group of moderate Republicans in Congress, is spending $190,000 on "field work" supporting GOP Rep. Renee Ellmers, according to a Federal Election Commission filing. Ellmers, who represents North Carolina's 2nd District, is facing a primary challenge from Jim Duncan, a businessman who's been endorsed by the Club for Growth PAC. Sarah Chamberlain, who runs the super PAC, told Campaign Pro last week that the group would help Ellmers with "a combination of TV, direct mail and some radio" ahead of the March 15 primary. Ellmers has more money to work with herself, too.
 She had $415,000 in the bank at the end of the year, compared with the Duncan campaign's $212,000.

CASH POOR - Democratic underdogs in Senate races struggle with fundraising: None of the Democrats running against Senate candidates who've gotten the nod from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee endorsed candidates managed to sock away much cash in the fourth quarter. P.G. Sittenfeld, who's running in Ohio against former Gov. Ted Strickland, raised $235,000 but only increased his cash on hand by $1,300, giving him $785,000 in total. (A super PAC supporting him raised $735,000 in the second half of the year, though.) Andrea Zopp, who's running against Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth, banked $314,000 but saw her cash on hand drop by more than $100,000, to $714,000. Rep. Alan Grayson,
 who's battled Rep. Patrick Murphy for the Democratic nomination in Florida, raised $591,000, but a Grayson spokesman acknowledged his cash on hand likely dropped since the third quarter. 

INTERNAL AFFAIRS -"Poll: Val Demings blows away Democratic rivals in Orlando congressional seat," by POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: Val Demings 44-22 percent lead over state Sen. Geraldine Thompson cuts across racial, ethnic and gender lines, the Public Policy Polling survey of 506 self-described likely Democratic voters shows. The margin of error is 4.5 percentage points. The numbers are bad for the third Democrat in the race, Bob Poe, a white male in the strongly-minority district. Poe pulls only 7 percent of the theoretical vote. Poe's fav/unfav numbers are also upside down, unlike Demings' and Thompson's. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=04b74fafe1c9f12a4d99feaf17e19efa63451573e82ff3b9d1f949dba2717903

- Pe&ntilde;a-Melnyk polls shows three-way race in MD-04: An internal poll from state Del. Joseline Pe&ntilde;a-Melnyk has her in the thick of the race with former State's Attorney Glenn Ivey and former Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown in the race to replace Rep. Donna Edwards in the Prince George's County-based seat. Brown earns 21 percent of the vote, Pe&ntilde;a-Melnyk banks 17 percent and Ivey has 15 percent. (Ivey released a poll last week showing him and Brown well ahead of Pe&ntilde;a-Melnyk.) GBA Strategies conducted the poll of 400 likely Democratic primary voters. See the memo: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=04b74fafe1c9f12af8a787c3ffee26efc42f1287449142a316fc3e9506d58ad3

- While Brown has led the internal polls from both Ivey and Pe&ntilde;a-Melnyk's campaigns, his fundraising has struggled. He raised just over $102,000 and has $269,000 on hand for a race in the expensive D.C. media market. Ivey raised $197,000 and has $523,000 on hand. And Pena-Melnyk, with the backing of EMILY's List, raised $146,000 and has $378,000 in the bank. Meanwhile, the field has narrowed. Del. Dereck Davis has dropped out of the race, The Baltimore Sun reports. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=04b74fafe1c9f12a44416d0c2d5416b4ae280aeceeb14d40fcb90f24ba06c65f And Ingrid Turner told The Washington Post she would run for a judgeship instead. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=04b74fafe1c9f12a11038a2dfc6a9a27b23ac5497dfc10761e4750ca83c5aa2b

ON THE CALENDAR - Radio Advertising Bureau holding an event this afternoon: The Radio Advertising Bureau will bring together political analysts this afternoon to discuss radio's impact on the presidential race. Speakers include: Anthony Salvanto, the election director for CBS News; Steven Portnoy, CBS News' congressional correspondent; Carol Edwards, the senior vice president for local media analytics at Nielsen; Rich Tunkel, vice president at Nielsen Audio; Patrick McGee, a political strategist at the Katz Group; and Erica Farber, the Radio Advertising Bureau's chief executive. The event will held at Union Station's Columbus Club. It starts at 3 p.m. 

- RNC touts data progress: AdAge on how the Republican Nationaol Committee, which is neutral in the GOP presidential primary, is using the nomianting contest as a testing ground and data-gathering opportunity: bit.ly/1QcbveJ

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Sanders hits early state crossroads," by POLITICO's Gabriel Debenedetti in Keene, N.H.: Should Bernie Sanders spend the next week campaigning in New Hampshire, where he's up in the polls, after nearly winning the Iowa caucuses? Or should he look ahead to Nevada and South Carolina? Right now, his campaign seems to be leaning heavily toward a New Hampshire strategy. "If we win here in New Hampshire after our great showing in Iowa," Sanders told an enthusiastic crowd in Keene, "we will do well in Nevada and South Carolina." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=04b74fafe1c9f12a56b8c8d518fb9b09af6f8194832598b4a4b95843c10e3f12

- "Cruz looks past New Hampshire to South Carolina," by POLITICO's Katie Glueck in Greenville, S.C.: While the New Hampshire primary is less than a week away, Ted Cruz's campaign is already focused on South Carolina. ... The deeply conservative and religious state presents an opportunity for what could be a decisive win that ushers in a series of victories between the Feb. 20 South Carolina primary and the March 15 Florida contest. Cruz is particularly focused on March 1, when a slew of Southern states, where Cruz has been organizing for months, head to the polls, and South Carolina increasingly looks like a gateway to that moment." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=04b74fafe1c9f12a9e83f31520b9bbf3556fcdb74cbe440484db2861729cb6ab

- "How Trump let himself get out-organized," by POLITICO's Kenneth P. Vogel and Darren Samuelsohn: "For months, Donald Trump's allies urged him to invest in the technology necessary to identify and mobilize his supporters, sources close to Trump's campaign told POLITICO, but the billionaire barely budged, apparently believing his star power would provide a new way to mobilize voters. By the time his campaign began investing in voter data and targeting analytics his rivals for the GOP nomination - particularly Iowa winner Ted Cruz and third place finisher Marco Rubio - had spent millions building sophisticated voter-targeting machines. Trump's campaign lacked the voter-targeting and turnout
 capabilities to translate a seven-point polling lead in Iowa into a win in Monday's Iowa caucuses, and his disappointing second-place finish hinted at potential trouble for him in upcoming states that should otherwise be more favorable to him." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=04b74fafe1c9f12ad4c36ee2c45ebc6dbc1edc9c4e841b35b08baa6e96f0f93a

- "Trump's claims of Senate endorsements ring hollow," by POLITICO's Burgess Everett: "Donald Trump has offered a pointed rebuttal to anyone criticizing his lack of endorsements from GOP senators: They're coming 'very soon,' he said Sunday, 'you watch.' But there's scant evidence to support Trump's claim. In interviews with nearly 20 neutral senators this week, none said the businessman had even approached them for an endorsement. Most haven't spoken to Trump in years. Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), widely considered the most open to a Trump endorsement, hasn't even spoken to the real estate mogul in more than a month after helping him last year on immigration policy. He has no imminent
 endorsement plans." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=04b74fafe1c9f12a1bc638bb010a2d89a00e239bc0111d4556daee639989e2d6

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "That's exactly the kind of bitch I thought you would be." - Ron Buchanan, the chairman of the Davidson County Election Commission in Tennessee, after Alanna Autler, a reporter for a local television station, asked him about the commission's spending on restaurant meals and expensive picture frames. Buchanan has resigned. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=04b74fafe1c9f12a67ab1bf3f346cd280d425df5409db805f642b848d5580f2e

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