Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: GOP incumbents brace for primaries after Cruz-Trump finish 1-2 — Paul pivots back to Senate race — Shelby challenger raises nearly $600,000
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 04 Feb 2016 09:03:04 -0600

By Elena Schneider | 02/04/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard, Scott Bland and Elena Schneider

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

AFTER IOWA - "GOP incumbents brace for primaries in outsider year," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "Republican members of Congress are bracing for the same wave that hit Iowa on Monday. The anti-establishment sentiment that fueled Ted Cruz and Donald Trump's 1-2 Iowa caucuses finish has been building throughout the country for years. ... In response, allies say, members of Congress have been preparing more diligently than ever for potentially dangerous re-nomination races many practically ignored until a few years ago. 'They're seeing what's happening to establishment candidates in the presidential race, so they're anxious and it's getting them to be more prepared to run,' in their own
 primaries, said Erik Potholm, a GOP media consultant. 'They're preparing earlier than ever before, and that's smart because they're not taking chances.'" Read more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31592ad6c1439f17402fd23141ff2de0b7314c6cd8db101daf242946700c93fd

BACK TO KENTUCKY - "Allies: Paul must immediately turn to Senate fundraising," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: No time to rest for former presidential candidate Rand Paul with his Senate reelection looming. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=31592ad6c1439f17eb033aaf313b54ee92984408308ff9e6c2a0f9ea0623e85c

TV TIMEOUT - Sanders TV ads are big hits with independents: Unlike Iowa's insular caucus process, New Hampshire's Tuesday presidential primaries are open to independent voters, and they love what they're seeing from Bernie Sanders' ad campaign. According to Ace Metrix, the TV analytics company, independents in their online panels rated six Sanders ads among their top 10, including the top two, "Two Visions" (in which Sanders implicitly criticizes Hillary Clinton for raising money on Wall Street) and "Social Security" (in which Sanders calls for expanded benefits and criticizes 'Republicans and some Democrats' for proposing cuts).

Days until the New Hampshire primary: 5. Days until the 2016 election: 278.

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HE'S BAAAACK - Former Rep. Joe Garcia (D) to run for FL-26, via POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: "Garcia, who lost his 2014 congressional re-election bid amid two scandals tied to a former aide, has decided to run for his old seat against a one-time friend, Annette Taddeo. ... [A] staffer, Jeffrey Garcia (no known relation), masterminded a scheme to divert campaign money to a phony tea party candidate so he could siphon votes from a Republican rival. Joe Garcia denied any knowledge or involvement, but the FBI dug up an email indicating he might have been informed of the scheme. ... Garcia's Democratic rival, Taddeo, wouldn't say whether the criminal case would become a campaign issue.
 However, she said, 'this district has been through a lot and it's time to turn the page.' Said one Democratic donor who supported Garcia: 'This is not good for him and it's not good for the party. This is vanity.'" politi.co/1meQ6cD

- Why it matters: After redistricting, FL-26 is now one of the most Democratic-leaning districts held by a Republican congressman, and Garcia's personal baggage could end up being a major obstacle for his party. Plus, Florida's primary isn't until the end of August, meaning this is going to take forever to sort itself out.

FINAL REPORTS - Shelby raises $1.2 million, challenger raises $587,000 ahead of primary: Jonathan McConnell, one of Alabama GOP Sen. Richard Shelby's primary challengers raised $587,000 in the fourth quarter, including a personal contribution. But his haul was less than half of the $1.2 million raised by Shelby, according to Federal Election Commission reports. McConnell gave his campaign $255,000 and loaned it another $36,000.

- Sestak raises $374,000 for Pennsylvania Senate race in fourth quarter: Former Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak raised $374,000 for his Pennsylvania Senate bid in the last three months of 2015, FEC filings show, giving him just shy of $2.6 million on hand to start this year. But he still has twice as much cash as fellow Democrat Katie McGinty, who has $1.2 million on hand. A third Democrat, Braddock Mayor John Fetterman, raised $158,000 in the fourth quarter and had $131,000 on hand.

INSIDE THE FEC REPORTS - Legal fees restraining Honda's campaign: Rep. Mike Honda looks set to face another Dem-on-Dem rematch with Ro Khanna in California's 17th District, and he essentially lost months' worth of fundraising to legal fees as he deals with an ethics inquiry. Honda's campaign paid over $176,000 in legal fees in 2015, while another $23,000-plus went to a firm that touts "crisis communications" as one of its specialties. (It also does other communications work.) Rep. Frank Guinta (R-N.H.) also dropped $45,000 on legal fees in 2015 - along with the $355,000 he was required to repay his parents as the result of an FEC settlement, which has left his campaign account nearly empty.

- Shimkus challenger refunding more than half of what he raised: Illinois state Sen. Kyle McCarter, who's challenging Rep. John Shimkus in the Republican primary next month, raised nearly $79,000 in the fourth quarter. "But McCarter's campaign also had to make thousands of dollars in refunds because it didn't follow FEC rules and it accepted thousands of dollars in corporate contributions - which are illegal - and took a $40,000 contribution from a single donor, which also is illegal," The News-Gazette's Tom Kacich reports. "Individuals are limited to $2,700 in contributions per election." McCarter is set to refund more than $52,000 in total. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daab6f3cfbbd5460c66841e4fc97c34a30e1848b2cd4670519b1154f69355983

CITY HALL BRIEF - Black Lives Matter activist DeRay Mckesson runs for Baltimore mayor, The Baltimore Sun reports. bsun.md/1PVyD6T

AIR AID - Sittenfeld super PAC goes up with gun ad: The super PAC backing P.G. Sittenfeld for Senate released its first television ad Wednesday: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daab6f3cfbbd54605ea4c6e82e31aafc9918f17cfa6f6b8757cb2e22b954f3c6

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Inside Rand Paul's slow-motion collapse," by POLITICO's Shane Goldmacher, Alex Isenstadt and Daniel Strauss: Rand Paul's "entire campaign had been premised on the notion that as a younger, more polished and more talented politician, Rand Paul could expand the libertarian grassroots movement that had powered Ron Paul's 2008 and 2012 campaigns with tens of millions of dollars and thousands of impassioned volunteers. But the younger Paul's triangulating ended up leaving him isolated. The establishment cavalry never came and the libertarian troops left him. 'I think he was doing as much following as he was leading,' said Frayda Levin, an influential libertarian GOP
 donor who sits on the board of directors of the Club for Growth." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daab6f3cfbbd54606decb8dcb387ef372d92c96c62591753a6bfaeff45ad1e83

- Mike Biundo, a senior adviser to Paul and a New Hampshire native, is headed to John Kasich's campaign, The Washington Post's Ed O'Keefe reports. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daab6f3cfbbd5460a749eb2c23ca7a7fd99d06904a17f543776c044c317846fd

- Vincent Harris, who worked as Paul's chief digital strategist, is still on the market. In a lengthy Medium post that went up after midnight last night, Harris breaks down what he learned during 16 months working for a Republican campaign on which digital staffers were "on every senior call, in senior meetings, and working directly with the candidate." "While stories have already begun being written about what 'went wrong' in our campaign (many of which are just blatantly false, sourced with anonymous people with axes to grind), I want to take time to write about something that went so right," he writes. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daab6f3cfbbd5460a043d213d8215cdebe26e689b668392cdaef42c0464b03f5

- Meanwhile, Rick Santorum is also out, and he's endorsed Marco Rubio. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daab6f3cfbbd5460cbc466778a3afab647ca361bf052900f281781a3193f2a30

- "Sanders spotlights Clinton vulnerabilities," by POLITICO's Edward-Isaac Dovere: "Top Democrats aren't worried about Bernie Sanders beating Hillary Clinton in the primaries. They're worried about what the popular response to Sanders shows them about Clinton's vulnerabilities in November." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daab6f3cfbbd5460f051ad72403a5eb1ced2cc57061eaaf7c5b50a3d70fb9c52

- "Ted Cruz, born again libertarian," by POLITICO's Katie Glueck in Henniker, N.H.: "Bill O'Brien knew exactly what to do when Rand Paul officially dropped out of the 2016 race. He went on a dialing spree. O'Brien, one of Ted Cruz's New Hampshire co-chairs and a former state House Speaker, had tried "15 to 20 state reps by noon, looking to pull Paul supporters over to team Cruz. Former U.S. Sen. Bob Smith, another co-chair for Cruz here, did much the same when he heard the news in the midst of an MSNBC appearance. Back on the Cruz campaign bus, he too was calling Paul-aligned activists and lawmakers, and even members of Paul's leadership team. It's not a coincidence that Cruz's co-chairs
 had an identical game plan: they've been courting Paul's supporters for months, hoping to siphon support away from a campaign on its last legs. Now those legs have given out, and Team Cruz is ready to pounce." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daab6f3cfbbd546022f20e5f5e85387920c28b82476acf7cdd48a78762ceb9e1 

- "A tough call on Libya that still haunts," by The Washington Post's Kevin Sullivan: A deep dive into Hillary Clinton's decision to back military intervention in Libya - one of the riskiest of Clinton's career. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Tom Donilon, the national security adviser, warned against getting involved, contending that the United States had no clear national interests at stake and that operations could last far longer and cost more lives than anyone anticipated. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daab6f3cfbbd546032181a569c3ac4ccc4bea890f8f68ab01976471cb74be2c2

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Yeah, I punched a guy in the mouth for f***ing my wife. But look at the city. People come here from Boston to go to the zoo, go to the theatre, go to a restaurant. Used to be the reverse." - Late Providence Mayor Buddy Cianci (RIP), from a 2002 piece by Philip Gourevitch in The New Yorker that the magazine has unlocked following Cianci's death last week. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=daab6f3cfbbd5460054ea91dbe70cfd1433c91d06c5781b7292bee7c16d3d27a

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