Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: NEW HAMPSHIRE: Trump 1, Kasich 2, Cruz 3, Bush 4 ... GOP establishment lane still muddled — Trump and Cruz on collision course — Democratic race is about to come down to race
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 10 Feb 2016 09:01:49 -0600

By Elena Schneider | 02/10/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With help from Kevin Robillard

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

AT THE TOP - "Trump wins New Hampshire," by POLITICO's Shane Goldmacher in Manchester, N.H.: "Donald Trump can add a new word to his 2016 vocabulary after New Hampshire: winner. The Manhattan businessman, who has taken the political world by storm, decisively won the first 2016 presidential primary on Tuesday, besting a crowded field of Republicans who, even as the results rolled in, continued to battle among themselves. ...It was a clear-cut victory, as multiple networks called it immediately after polls closed; Trump clobbered the rest of the field with more than double his closest competitor. He boasted over 34 percent support after more than 70 percent of precincts reported." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1e441c2bdc738684a2e79db3ba36e4b086cd00f549e5673a182eb37842ca3ce7

- "Sanders beats Clinton in New Hampshire," by POLITICO's Nick Gass: "Bernie Sanders thrashed Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire primary Tuesday, an emphatic early triumph for a populist campaign long dismissed as an afterthought in the Democratic presidential primary. ... 'The people of New Hampshire have sent a profound message to the political establishment, the economic establishment and by the way, to the media establishment,' Sanders said in his victory speech. 'What the people here have said is that given the enormous crises facing our country, it is just too late for the same-old, same-old establishment politics and establishment economics. The people want real change.' ... 'It's
 not whether you get knocked down that matters, it's whether you get back up,' [Clinton] told supporters after calling Sanders to concede. She echoed many of Sanders' campaign themes - vowing to crack down on Wall Street, push for campaign finance reform and fight for women's rights, gay rights and workers' rights - but said that she could actually produce results." politico.pro/1Pk6cfs

- ON TO SOUTH CAROLINA - "Why the Democratic primary is about to get racial," by POLITICO's Edward-Isaac Dovere and Gabriel Debenedetti in Concord, N.H.: Hillary Clinton's got until South Carolina to prove this is all a fluke. Bernie Sanders has until the end of March to prove it's not. If Sanders is truly going to become a Barack Obama-style Clinton-slayer of 2016, he knows he's going to need to start racking up Obama-level support among non-white voters, and quickly, because the Democratic primary is about to come down to race. ...The next two early states to vote, Nevada and South Carolina, have much larger Latino and African American populations, which means he no longer has the luxury
 of appealing to his base of white liberals." politico.pro/1Q6x1kP

- CLASH OF TITANS, EXPECTED - "Trump win sets up brutal battle with Cruz," by POLITICO's Ben Schreckinger in Manchester, N.H.: "Donald Trump's Tuesday win proves his candidacy is more than a mirage, but March will test its durability. Trump allies and antagonists alike say he is well-positioned for the next contest on Feb. 20 in South Carolina, where he boasts a double-digit lead over Ted Cruz and fields his strongest operation of any state. But the Texas senator could gain the upper hand on Trump as soon as March 1, when 12 states vote, including six across the South where Cruz has invested heavily. Already, Cruz campaign operatives streamed into South Carolina from New Hampshire on
 Tuesday, and are not going to concede next Saturday's vote without a fight. ... After that, Trump insiders concede, the businessman becomes more vulnerable to his Texan rival. "I worry about Cruz in the South because Cruz is actually running the perfect [expletive] campaign," said a Southern ally of Trump's, who bemoaned a lack of investment in field and data operations." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1e441c2bdc73868454881dabc3c23919b925eac8cae75f3d55d6a5d49506b3d5 

- PRINCE OF LIGHT, BUT FOR HOW LONG? - "Kasich tries to claim GOP establishment crown," by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney in Concord, N.H.: The Ohio governor - who blew away competitors vying to finish as Donald Trump's runner-up here - lags badly in the organization and resources it will take to win in later Republican primary states. But he will now try to parlay his showing in New Hampshire into a cash windfall that could pay for a quick build-up of his organizations in South Carolina - which votes on Feb. 20 - and across the South, where he stands at a significant disadvantage to more conservative candidates. ...Kasich's next step, according to allies and strategists, is an all-out blitz to
 present himself as the consensus candidate of the establishment and poach rivals' donors, who could help carry him through the next round of states." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1e441c2bdc73868485bda0e3264c9c97ca146131eab378b603add9293c45ffef 

- NEW HAMPSHIRE'S BIGGEST LOSER - "Rubio blames debate performance for poor finish," by POLITICO's Sarah Wheaton: "Sen. Marco Rubio blamed his lackluster performance in Saturday's GOP debate for his poor showing in the New Hampshire primary. "Our disappointment tonight is not on you. It's on me," Rubio said. "I did not do well in Saturday night's debate. That will never happen again." After Rubio's third-place victory in Iowa made him the leading establishment-lane candidate going into New Hampshire, he endured a series of attacks from his rivals, especially Gov. Chris Christie - whose aggressive debate tactics flummoxed the freshman Florida senator." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1e441c2bdc73868433ee52c93f335c036ce569790efa300ce8946db0e2a0780b 

Days until the South Carolina GOP primary and Nevada Democratic caucuses: 10. Days until the 2016 election: 272.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about really, really old primary ballots: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer, @kyledcheney.

AFTER IOWA - "Cruz claims New Hampshire as a win," by POLITICO's Katie Glueck in Hollis, N.H.: "Ted Cruz didn't win the New Hampshire primary, but at his watch party here Tuesday night, he claimed victory anyway. ... Cruz last week won the Iowa caucuses and for a time was polling a distant second in New Hampshire, behind Trump. But he was never expected to win here, in the second-most secular state in the country, where his vocal social conservatism makes him an unlikely fit. In his speech here, he said his close top-four finish validated his strategy of seeking to unite evangelicals and libertarians, among other factions of the conservative grassroots. ... Left unsaid, but more important
 for the Cruz campaign, was that the results blunted the momentum of Marco Rubio, the Florida senator seen as a possibly formidable rival, should he eventually emerge as the establishment standard-bearer." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1e441c2bdc73868474cbdcdba7c2092e6ca3f8f849357715c3a387e14ea6200e 

NO OBIT FOR JEB - "Bush: I'm 'not dead,'" by POLITICO's Eli Stokols in Manchester, N.H.: "Unlike his more polished and scripted rivals, Jeb Bush was his typically blunt, honest self when he took the stage here with the polls showing him in fourth place in New Hampshire and crystallized his own predicament. "This campaign is not dead," Bush said. "We're going on to South Carolina." For the moment, it didn't matter that Bush spent $36 million in New Hampshire, built the best organization in the state and only managed to finish fourth, with less than one-third of the total votes that went to Donald Trump, who he's spent the last several months attacking. All that matters is that Bush,
 considered the establishment front-runner at the outset of this race a year ago, is still alive and kicking - as much due to the precipitous collapse of support for Marco Rubio, his main rival for establishment support, as his own organization and performance." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1e441c2bdc738684d3bcf0f3df9595989e5387faf8b3fefa9b5f993034c5121b 

FRESH ON THE (DIGITAL) AIRWAVES - Priorities USA is releasing a digital ad Wednesday, going after Donald Trump as the "clear-cut frontrunner" and "examines the terrifying prospect" of a Trump presidency, according to a press statement. Watch the ad here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1e441c2bdc7386844e63b8dc00bbd8801b4734919166532fe0b1ae09a0b2ce7d 

- NARAL will release a new television ad attacking Rubio for his stance on abortion. Watch the ad here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1e441c2bdc7386845e83020033899c5a8c8a2e599412df294727a2c8f01277c9 

- RETURNING FIRE - FIRST IN SCORE - American Rising wasted no time linking Clinton's poor New Hampshire performance to Gov. Maggie Hassan, who's challenging GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte, arguing that it "does not bode well" for her Senate campaign. "Governor Hassan's marquee endorsement was touted as a game changer by the Clinton campaign and political pundits, but in the months since Governor Hassan began campaigning with her, Secretary Clinton's numbers have plummeted," said Colin Reed, the group's director, in a statement. 

OOPS IN INDIANA - "Todd Young in danger of missing ballot," by Campaign Pro's Scott Bland: "GOP Rep. Todd Young may not have submitted enough valid petition signatures to qualify for Indiana's Republican Senate primary, putting his rising political career in jeopardy and changing the outlook for an open Senate seat that Republicans expected to hold easily. To win spots on the primary ballot in Indiana, Senate candidates must get at least 500 registered voters in each congressional district to sign nominating petitions. But multiple hand counts of Young's petitions conducted by the Indiana Democratic Party found just 498 valid signatures from Indiana's 1st District, and the party now plans
 to challenge Young's eligibility for the ballot. ...If Young fails to make the ballot, fellow Republican Rep. Marlin Stutzman - a conservative member of the House Freedom Caucus - would win the GOP Senate primary by default, as the only remaining candidate." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1e441c2bdc738684efd73d2186a1d743d381a8fd30b68854c3ca9f185510dc5d

PRESIDENTIAL MEGA SPEED READ - "For Chris Christie, New Hampshire was a bridge to nowhere," by POLITICO's Daniel Strauss in Nashua, N.H.: "New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie struck up an unlikely friendship with Rep. Steve King, the Iowa firebrand and leading social conservative. ... [but] King endorsed Sen. Ted Cruz. And a few months after that, Christie ended up near the bottom of the Republican field in the Iowa caucuses. He followed that with an uninspired sixth place finish in New Hampshire, a state where he campaigned heavily and that seemed, at one time, receptive to his message of responsible governance and dogged fealty to conservative tax and budget policies. At his election-night
 rally, he finally appeared ready to throw in the towel, vowing to return to New Jersey and recalibrate. Chris Christie's 2016 ambitions were, in a nutshell, full of early hopes that never quite panned out." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1e441c2bdc738684d775bcc85ad740cf372ef91247dd37f95d121610c2d0c75d 

- Sanders raised $2.6 million in hours after victory, by POLITICO's Gabriel Debenedetti: politi.co/1o2HpUz

- "The pollsters dodge a bullet, for now," by POLITICO's Steven Shepard: "Perhaps the only surprise was that there were no surprises. Despite New Hampshire's penchant for polling volatility, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump cruised to easy victories in New Hampshire on Tuesday, just as the public polls had indicated. ... The problem for political observers: The race now shifts from perhaps the most surveyed state in the union to two states that are basically a black hole when it comes to public polling." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1e441c2bdc73868480781e597a14de16a442114a9c4d49f6a5bbec39c05c8837 

- "Clinton allies grapple with crushing loss," by POLITICO's Annie Karni in Manchester, N.H.: " ... after a drubbing so serious as to call into question every aspect of her campaign from her data operation to her message, the wounded front-runner and her allies are actively preparing to retool their campaign, according to Clinton allies. Staffing and strategy will be reassessed. The message, which so spectacularly failed in New Hampshire where she was trailing by 13 points when the networks called the race for Sanders, is also going to be reworked - with race at the center of it. ... And the campaign, sources said, is expected to push a new focus on systematic racism, criminal justice
 reform, voting rights and gun violence that will mitigate concerns about her lack of an inspirational message." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1e441c2bdc738684ff892914bd125d6c51374f0781787f58145989596e0c7eb7 

POLITICO Caucus: Economy and the Election in South Carolina Join us as we bring POLITICO's South Carolina Caucus members together for a deep-dive discussion, featuring a variety of perspectives, about the economic policy issues facing the next president. Feb. 11, 5:30 pm - Alumni Hall, College of Charleston - Charleston, South Carolina RSVP: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1e441c2bdc7386840b5374e6ea5a92c8f2fb78e98a90b31973a2f1a1d932c254

POLITICO Caucus: Energy and the Election in South Carolina Join us as we bring POLITICO's South Carolina Caucus members together for a deep-dive discussion, featuring a variety of perspectives, about the energy policy issues facing the next president. Speakers include: Hillary For America Energy Policy Advisor Trevor Houser, The Hoover Institution's Jeremy Carl, The Electric Cooperatives of S.C., Inc.'s Mike Couick, Bold Nebraska's Jane Kleeb, Coastal Conservation League's Laurin Manning, Brawley Templeton, LLC's Catherine Templeton, Inez Tenenbaum, and Nelson Mullins Riley & Scarborough LLP's David Wilkins. Feb. 11, 3 pm - Alumni Hall, College of Charleston - Charleston, South Carolina
 RSVP: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1e441c2bdc738684076b089f6fed492fead4a9ee64379a8450f732d5f2a24b54

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "But listen folks. I know the networks want to go. Bernie talked so long I thought he'd hit his 77th birthday before he left the stage!" - John Kasich, in his speech celebrating his second-place finish.

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