Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by Katz Radio Group: 2016 House flip list — N.C. redistricting moves House elections to June — Nevada caucuses a wild card for Republicans
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 22 Feb 2016 09:01:55 -0600

By Elena Schneider | 02/22/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Scott Bland and Kevin Robillard

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

BLUE TO RED, RED TO BLUE - "The 10 House seats most likely to flip this year," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer, Elena Schneider and Kevin Robillard: "Earlier this month, the fourth quarter fundraising reports gave us a firmer sense of where the House landscape lies at the start of 2016. ... Though we're squarely in the middle of a decade, redistricting figures to play a major role this cycle as multiple states grapple with new maps." Here are the top three; can you guess the rest before going to the story? 1. FL-02 (Democratic Rep. Gwen Graham) ... 2. FL-10 (Republican Rep. Dan Webster) ... 3. VA-04 (Open, Republican Rep. Randy Forbes). http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f1dd19f9c6e46d05f86e1f1924ecb691c6f1cc2628a96f45fd09458885da320d

LOOKING AHEAD TO JUNE - Redistricting moves North Carolina House primaries to June: The Supreme Court denied a stay request from North Carolina Republicans late Friday night to stop the court-ordered redistricting process in the state. So not only will the new districts drawn last week by the state legislature take effect (unless a court strikes it down, too, or if some other legal action gets in the way), lawmakers rescheduled House primaries for June 7 to give voters and candidates time to make the ballot and run in their new territory. As we reported last week (and as you can see in the chart at the above link), the new districts put several incumbents in unfamiliar territory --
 especially Rep. George Holding, whose old 13th District was carved into pieces. Thus ...

- "Holding plans to challenge Rep. Renee Ellmers under new map," via the Raleigh News and Observer: "'Nobody's too thrilled about the prospect of a primary, but that's the democratic way,' said Carter Wrenn, who spoke Friday afternoon on behalf of the Holding campaign. Holding couldn't be reached because he's in Europe with another member of Congress ... Reaction from the Ellmers campaign was strong. 'Frankly, to want power that bad ... (it's) an extremely aggressive move,' said Patrick Sebastian, a spokesman for the Ellmers campaign." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f1dd19f9c6e46d05957593ec2f59f75ba4c26653abb63d2fde98aec9d2542fdb

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY - "Nevada caucus calamity worries GOP," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "... Yet on the eve of Tuesday evening's GOP caucus, no one has a firm sense of who's winning here. And worse, there's an undercurrent of nervousness about the prospect of a caucus calamity. 'It's true, the smartest people just don't know what's going to happen here,' said Pete Ernaut, a Republican consultant who is unaffiliated with a presidential campaign. ... Republican campaigns and state operatives point to a number of factors creating the cloud of confusion: a cash-poor state party in disarray, a public unaccustomed to the caucus process and a state that's notoriously difficult to
 poll." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f1dd19f9c6e46d05d604d14a20238e35089eac88a061fe327984b5dbfbd508a0 

NEW THIS A.M.: DSCC TOPS NRSC IN JANUARY CASH RACE - The DSCC raised $5.8 million last month, compared to nearly $3.9 million for the NRSC. But the Republican committee still has more cash on hand than its Democratic counterpart, $13.8 million to $13.6 million. On the House side, the NRCC just edged the DCCC in January, raising $6.48 million to the Democratic committee's $6.43 million. The NRCC had $34.7 million in the bank to $33.2 million for the DCCC.

Days until the Nevada Republican caucus: 1. Days until the South Carolina Democratic primary: 5. Days until the 2016 election: 262.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about Ocean's Fourteen: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @kyledcheney. 

FOREVER YOUNG - Young remains on Indiana Senate ballot after challenges: GOP Rep. Todd Young filed enough signatures to remain on the ballot in Indiana's Senate race, the state Election Commission ruled Friday. He will face fellow GOP Rep. Marlin Stutzman in a Republican primary May 3. Over several hours Friday afternoon, Young's attorney argued that some of Young's petition signatures had been improperly rejected - and, offering a sworn affidavit from Young's campaign manager (but not a copy of the document), that another sheet of them had been misplaced after it was handed in. The Democratic and Republican members of the commission deadlocked, leaving Young on the ballot.

- Young and Stutzman's attorneys traded barbs all afternoon, a sign of how the challenge really broke the seal on their primary. One particularly choice exchange between Young attorney David Brooks (Rep. Susan Brooks' husband) and Stutzman attorney James Bopp Jr. put the rancor on full display. In his closing arguments, Bopp said: "Obviously there's a big problem with the Young campaign and it's their own gross negligence they want you to fix." Brooks, in his final statement, said: "The Stutzman campaign wants to turn the primary campaign into a coronation. He doesn't want to face Todd Young." Young continued to roll out new GOP endorsements over the weekend following the challenge.

** A message from Katz Radio Group: Katz Radio Group is your one-stop media partner. Timing is everything in an election. Let Katz Radio Group give you the reach and speed you need to effectively deliver your message. Katz Radio Group delivers every station, in every market, on every platform, with one call.
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DEBATE DRAMA - ZOPP GOES AFTER DUCKWORTH IN DEBATE, WANTS MORE - The Chicago Sun-Times summarizes the only televised debate in the contest so far: "The jabs came quickly from Zopp, who came prepared to criticize Duckworth on everything from her record in Congress to the 12 weeks she took for her maternity leave. ... Besides taking questions from journalists, candidates also were allowed to ask a question of each opponent. ... Zopp questioned Duckworth about what Zopp said was the congresswoman's refusal to respond to requests for debates by African-American radio stations." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f1dd19f9c6e46d0597095d41b0472ecee9eb6c23e167a3f7443693a56f0b26eb

- On Sunday, Zopp followed up with a call for more debates and specifically for a debate on "issues that impact the African American community."

ON FOR-PROFIT COLLEGES IN CALIFORNIA'S SENATE RACE - The Sacramento Bee examines Democratic Rep. Loretta Sanchez's relationship with for-profit colleges, contrasting it with that of her chief rival, Kamala Harris. "...Shortly after Sanchez's tour, Westwood contributed $1,000 for her reelection. The congresswoman's relationship with the troubled college, and her broader record on for-profit institutions, stands in stark contrast to her Democratic opponent, Attorney General Kamala Harris, who lists her efforts in helping close Corinthian Colleges, the Santa Ana-based for-profit chain, as among her principal achievements," the Bee reported. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f1dd19f9c6e46d05f334d8248c3ac40f706045b4c11b83f0011378738f82999a 

THIS WEEK ON OFF MESSAGE: "If Don King had been born white he'd be Donald Trump..." Rev. Al Sharpton talks with Glenn Thrush about what drives Donald Trump in today's episode of the Off Message podcast. Sharpton also discusses Bernie Sanders' Brooklyn roots and his record on race, and what it'll take for one of the candidates to receive his endorsement. Plus: he weighs in on Black Lives Matter and evaluates the Obama administration on criminal justice. Listen to the full interview and get every episode by subscribing to the podcast on iTunes http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f1dd19f9c6e46d05003ed9254daf782a5da85317a22c030f2aade32caa668bb9 or SoundCloud http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f1dd19f9c6e46d053b0d00df038d750233bc3c26245168faf98ae2de260a4796

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Ted Cruz struggles to unify conservatives," by POLITICO's Katie Glueck in Columbia, S.C.: "Ted Cruz has long insisted he is the only candidate capable of uniting the conservative base, but a disappointing third-place finish in South Carolina that saw evangelical Christians flock to Donald Trump is suddenly undercutting his status as the conservative chosen one. ...The results in a state where 73 percent of voters identified as evangelical in exit polls are a clear signal that despite spending months trying, Cruz is far from locking down this core group of politically active Christians. The outright winner of the evangelical vote, according to exit polls, was
 Trump, who pulled in 33 percent of that segment. Cruz took 27 percent of the evangelical vote, followed by Rubio with 22 percent." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f1dd19f9c6e46d05c596e055b415aedf9d7352e959ceadf5edfa1f696781ef0c 

- "Donald Trump's victory spurs renewed scrambling among Republicans," by the New York Times' Maggie Haberman and Alan Rappeport: "Mainstream Republicans grappled on Sunday with Donald J. Trump's sweeping victory in South Carolina as if cycling through stages of grief, with some refusing to accept that he could be the party's eventual nominee and others searching for ways to prevent his insurgent candidacy from becoming unstoppable. ... A pair of potential endorsements loom large in Mr. Rubio's hopes for vaulting ahead of Mr. Trump ... Mitt Romney ... and Jeb Bush ... But Mr. Romney, who strongly considered a 2016 presidential campaign of his own before bowing out as Mr. Bush made a show of
 fund-raising force, is not ready to make an endorsement, according to three people close to him." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f1dd19f9c6e46d05246094a122d83a753df4e6e661d795cf22fb78183a96196a

- "5 takeaways from South Carolina and Nevada," by POLITICO's Glenn Thrush in Greenville, S.C.: " ... Things can change in a hurry, but at this moment - with SEC and Super Tuesday primaries just around the corner - it's clear both parties have, yet again, entrenched front-runners. Here are five takeaways. 1. Biggest win for Hillary Clinton since New Hampshire '08. ... 2. Marco's moment ... again. ... 3. Bernie's problem with black voters could derail the revolution. ... 4. Ted Cruz at the crossroads. ... 5. Donald Trump loses Jeb Bush, his favorite chew toy." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f1dd19f9c6e46d0522bf41b9722881b34b721a249005abd26b35dfd35efa8d1d 

- "Friendship battered, Bush faces pressure to back Rubio," by POLITICO's Marc Caputo and Alex Isenstadt: "And even after Bush's exit from the 2016 contest, this Florida drama - the primary within a primary - isn't over: The state's politicos now want to know if Bush will endorse the man he long called a friend, the man he said in 2012 should be his party's vice-presidential nominee. ... 'He is going to relax, think things through and see what he wants to do, if anything,' said Al Cardenas, a longtime Bush confidant who served under the former Florida governor as chair of the state GOP." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f1dd19f9c6e46d052ae00dd5a139d3590ad19851c4ab89479b7c845d417a324f 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Like Voldemort's horcruxes, the large candidate field shields Trump from harm. At each step of the primary process, Trump is losing his shields, and that is making him more vulnerable." - Memo from the pro-Rubio Conservative Solutions PAC, comparing the Florida senator to Harry Potter and Trump to Voldemort, POLITICO reported. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=f1dd19f9c6e46d0559d809755fd8ba36374ebb836eaf7340ef2a9abcea3cf59a 

** A message from Katz Radio Group: Are You Being Heard?

An In-Time Insight brought to you by Stacey Schulman, EVP Strategy, Analytics & Research for Katz Radio Group

Super Tuesday is right around the corner, and a full third of Opportunity Voters in Colorado, Texas and Virginia spend more time with Radio daily, making them twice as likely to HEAR your ad on Radio than SEE it on TV. How do we know that? 

Katz Radio Group is developing In-Time Insights during the Primary Season with its "The Local Vote 2016" research initiative. Katz commissioned Nielsen to survey a representative sample of registered voters across 10 states in the weeks leading up to the Presidential primaries. Voter sentiments are then linked back to these respondents' local Scarborough data, demographic profiles and media consumption patterns.

In our first wave of data we learned that between 31 and 33% of voters in Colorado, Texas and Virginia have yet to decide on a candidate (undecided) or are not sure if they are voting (turnout targets). Together, we're calling these folks "The Opportunity Vote".
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