Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by Katz Radio Group: Nevada GOP Caucus, the aftermath — Mark Kirk starts pre-primary TV blitz
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2016 09:01:55 -0600

By Elena Schneider | 02/24/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard and Scott Bland

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

NEVADA CAUCUS RESULTS - DONALD TRUMP (46 PERCENT), MARCO RUBIO (24 PERCENT), TED CRUZ (21 PERCENT), BEN CARSON (5 PERCENT)

- THE AFTERMATH - "Trump wins Nevada caucuses," by POLITICO's Shane Goldmacher: Donald Trump trounced his rivals in the Nevada caucuses on Tuesday, notching his third consecutive victory and giving the Manhattan mogul even more momentum heading into Super Tuesday next week, when voters in a dozen states will cast their ballots. Trump's decisive win, which the Associated Press announced immediately after polls closed, was propelled by an electorate even more enraged than the ones that had swept him to wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and a second-place showing in Iowa. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=45503fa6c7ac0f0e7480100d41a508203a2fc3faede56775e311738235f1faaa

- DESERT STORM - "Caucus chaos in Nevada," by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney: "Reporters at the state's Republican caucuses are spotting irregularities, disorganization and examples of disregard for caucus rules." A few examples: Reports of people voting twice, caucus workers wearing Donald Trump gear and "actively bullying" attendees, and general mayhem and disorder. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=45503fa6c7ac0f0e771319ed57c16aeecba117a1bd38ada56ea2048cc0a025c3

- REMAIN CALM! ALL IS WELL! - "There have been no official reports of voting irregularities or violations." - @NVGOP.

Days until the South Carolina Democratic primary: 3. Days until Super Tuesday: 6. Days until the 2016 election: 257.

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DUCKWORTH UP BIG IN ILLINOIS PRIMARY - A poll from the Paul Simon Institute at Southern Illinois University-Carbondale has Rep. Tammy Duckworth with a huge lead in the state's Democratic primary. Duckworth gets the support of 52 percent of likely primary voters, compared to just 6 percent for Andrea Zopp and 4 percent for Napoleon Harris. And while the sample size is small, Duckworth has the backing of 49 percent of black voters to 16 pecent for Zopp and 7 percent for Harris. The survey also looked at the GOP primary. Sen. Mark Kirk has 53 percent of the vote to businessman James Marter's 14 percent. The poll didn't look at the general election, but it did peg Kirk's approval rating at 39
 percent. Thirty-one percent disapprove of his job performance. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=45503fa6c7ac0f0e8f80037e7e2b39bc2bbc7473a1ec2f79439b18dea41be8a8

- KIRK ATTACKS - Kirk plans to spend $800,000 on TV ads ahead of primary: GOP Sen. Mark Kirk's campaign will start running TV ads today attacking Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth less than three weeks ahead of the Illinois primary. The spot, part of a statewide buy on which the Kirk campaign plans to spend more than $800,000 ahead of the primary, attacks Duckworth for calling to allow Syrian refugees into the country. "ISIS used fake Syrian passports to commit the horrific Paris attacks," the narrator says. "Now we know they're printing thousands more. Still, Tammy Duckworth supports bringing 200,000 Syrian refugees to America." Kirk, the ad continues, "is leading the fight to stop refugees
 until it can be done safely."

- Duckworth also hit TV this week, but her ads don't cover Chicago yet, while Kirk's buy does. The Kirk spot is timed such that it could affect the Democratic primary, though as the recent polls show, Duckworth is in a commanding position. The spot doesn't mention Andrea Zopp, Duckworth's opponent in the March 15 primary.

- Watch Kirk's ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=45503fa6c7ac0f0e4ec87905c82048f77ec79e6fb7a4f3b79eb39baec04069d4

GITMO PLAYING OUT IN COLORADO - Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet tried to get ahead of Tuesday's call from President Obama to close the Guantanamo Bay detention facility, firing off a press release 16 minutes before Obama announced his proposal to do just that. "I've repeatedly said I do not support the transfer of prisoners from the Guantanamo Bay military facility to Colorado. I've voted to close the prison, but I believe military detainees should be held in military prisons. Colorado does not have that type of facility. This plan has done nothing to change my mind. These detainees should not be transferred to Colorado," said Bennet, who could face a difficult reelection battle in the fall.
 Jon Keyser, an Iraq war veteran and the establishment GOP choice to take on Bennet if he can emerge from a 13-candidate GOP primary, wasted little time in blasting the Democrat. "No matter how desperately Senator Bennet tries to run from his record, he won't be able to erase his dangerous support for bringing Guantanamo Bay terrorists to Colorado," Keyser said in a statement.

THE PLAN - "How McConnell ditched all caution in Supreme Court fight," by POLITICO's John Bresnahan and Burgess Everett: "With the Senate in recess, Republicans scattered across the country and a GOP presidential debate scheduled for later that night, McConnell knew he had to act fast or potentially lose control of the situation. ... So without even talking to Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) or other members of his leadership team, McConnell laid out the Republican position within hours of the Scalia news. No Obama nominee would be approved before the election. No hearings, no vote, not even a meeting with the president's pick. The Senate would wait until voters had a
 say before acting. It was a huge decision for McConnell to make unilaterally, one that puts Senate Republicans on a months-long collision course with Obama, Senate Democrats and liberal activists." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=45503fa6c7ac0f0e77af4783d2a0d86b485cff1e5fefb7546dded6e9e1ee862f

- SENATE DEMS LAUNCH DIGITAL SCOTUS ADS - Via Senate Majority PAC: "The ads will run both nationally and in targeted states ... directing voters to GOPobstructionism.com via Facebook and Twitter."

** A message from Katz Radio Group: With 239 million weekly listeners across the nation, Katz Radio Group has the largest reach of any radio representation company in America, with more than 3,000 radio stations and thousands of digital platforms. Katz Radio Group delivers every station, in every market, on every platform, with one call. 
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POLLING ALLEY - Schneider leads Rotering in IL-10 internal poll: Former Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider leads Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering, his primary rival, in an internal poll released by the Schneider campaign three weeks ahead of the primary in Illinois' 10th District. Among likely primary voters, 53 percent support Schneider to 23 percent for Rotering. The poll was conducted on Feb. 21 and 22 by Normington Petts and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. GOP Rep. Bob Dold holds the suburban Chicago swing seat, which is a top target for national Democrats.

TALKING ELECTION TECH - The Center for Public Integrity published a Q&A with incoming Election Assistance Chairman Thomas Hicks in the wee hours of this morning. Check out their conversation that covers voter fraud, poll access, IDs, Internet voting and automatic voter registration. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=45503fa6c7ac0f0e006eaf755ec01e4dbc578f8b4589571158e9d605bd856862 

TV TIMEOUT - "Nonprofit backing Derickson in primary to replace Boehner," by Campaign Pro's Scott Bland: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=45503fa6c7ac0f0e653b156aa7974d8ea13c738621157b086c4994eba6fb8f4f

- GOING NEGATIVE - "Alabama Senate primary takes negative turn during stretch run," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=45503fa6c7ac0f0e916868089c0f6d2c8dea936f1fc774f1eb972f6f286d0664 

- ALSO GOING NEGATIVE - Indiana GOP Rep. Todd Young is moving a digital ad attacking Rep. Marlin Stutzman for joining Democratic efforts to knock Young off the ballot to the airwaves. Young's campaign said a previously revealed digital ad, "Chicago Style," would move to television this week. The ad compares Stutzman's move to knock Young off the ballot to President Barack Obama's decision to challenge opponents' signatures early on in his political career. Watch the ad here. Meanwhile, Stutzman's wife, Christy, stars in a new ad from her husband's Senate campaign focusing on the candidate's boyhood in Indiana. Watch the ad, "Pocket Change," here.

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PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Mega-donors shy away from fight with Trump," by POLITICO's Kenneth P. Vogel and Isaac Arnsdorf: "...The party's elite donor class has mostly closed its checkbooks to groups dedicated to stopping Trump, while the outfits that have built massive reserves are increasingly deciding to forgo anti-Trump campaigns, despite widespread fears that he is making a mockery of conservatism and could undermine Republicans up and down the ballot. The deepest-pocketed operation on the right, the network helmed by the billionaires Charles and David Koch, had seriously debated launching an aggressive assault on Trump, but sources familiar with the network's planning tell POLITICO
 that's now highly unlikely. And the Karl Rove-conceived Crossroads outfits also are sitting out the party's bitter primary, instead spending their cash attacking Democrats." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=45503fa6c7ac0f0e23dbcaaacf9b0f2a765b34e68b9a6e7164e91a57073e14a1 

- "Cruz brass to Ted: Lay off Marco," by POLITICO's Katie Glueck: "Two of Ted Cruz's top backers say that it's time for him to stop going after Marco Rubio - and that he should turn his attention to taking on Donald Trump instead. 'I think he should forget about Rubio completely and focus on Trump,' said Bob Vander Plaats, one of Cruz's national co-chairs. ... Added Steve Deace, another influential Iowa-based backer of Cruz, 'Last week, Trump debated the Pope and Islam, and we debated Rubio on videos, narratives and Photoshop. Nobody cares about that stuff.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=45503fa6c7ac0f0e6dafc1c285ac165a154b81def0e48e6143010bc54ea23f8c 

- "Over 13 million Latinos expected to cast votes in November," by NBC News' Stephen A. Nuno: "The National Association for Latino Elected Officials released information today outlining the importance of the Latino vote in critical states like Colorado and Nevada. According to NALEO Educational Fund projections, more than 13.1 million Latino voters will cast ballots in the upcoming presidential election, up from 11.2 million in 2012. This would mark a 17 percent increase in turnout and an 8.7 percent increase in the Latino share of the vote from Election 2012." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=45503fa6c7ac0f0e2f0598ef3c9aa2b73d6954476e766e941b364b99e114376c 

- The pro-Rubio Values Are Vital PAC is launching an online ad campaign targeting GOP primary voters in Arkansas, Minnesota, Vermont, and Virginia through March 1. Though Conservative Solutions PAC and this group are advertising in Super Tuesday states already, the Rubio campaign itself had not reserved TV time past Nevada as of Tuesday afternoon. See the Values Are Vital ad, produced by Go BIG Media, here: bit.ly/1Qx8W6U

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "These tend to be really unpredictable races." - Political scientist John Forren, after an OH-08 primary debate in which one of the 14 candidates present called for building a wall along the Canadian border, via the Cincinnati Enquirer. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=45503fa6c7ac0f0ea62bffd828a7cd4f21457461c7e5ff4924564939149c6fb6 

** A message from Katz Radio Group: Don't Miss a Single "Opportunity"! 

An In-Time Insight brought to you by Stacey Schulman, EVP Strategy, Analytics & Research for Katz Radio Group 

In tight races, every vote counts - especially the ones you weren't counting on! It may surprise you that Radio is the only guaranteed platform to reach more than 90% of the Opportunity Vote next Tuesday in Colorado, Texas and Virginia. How do we know that? 

Katz Radio Group is developing In-Time Insights during the Primary Season with its "The Local Vote 2016" research initiative. Katz commissioned Nielsen to survey a representative sample of registered voters across 10 states in the weeks leading up to their Presidential primaries. Voter sentiments are then linked back to these respondents' local Scarborough data, demographic profiles and media consumption patterns. 

In our first wave of data we learned that between 31 and 33% of voters in Colorado, Texas and Virginia have yet to decide on a candidate (undecided) or are not sure if they are voting (turnout targets). Together, we're calling these folks "The Opportunity Vote". 
Want to know more?: [email-masked] **

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