Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Shimkus among three House incumbent primaries to watch Tuesday — EMILY's List dominating Maryland Senate race — Senate spending, vote drama in Ohio
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2016 08:02:08 -0600

By Theodoric Meyer | 03/14/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard, Scott Bland, Elena Schneider and Daniel Lippman

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

NEXT UP - "Flawed House challengers try to catch anti-Washington wave," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: "Majorities of both Democratic and Republican voters in state after state say they are angry or dissatisfied with the federal government - yet so far, they have re-nominated all of their members of Congress in primaries. Illinois and Ohio, where three House incumbents are facing robust primaries, will test that trend again Tuesday." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=beab457efa2a84a62f32fa451efa5a11e60b64b0429865f40eb850d73f5e3f39

- "John Boehner invisible as district chooses replacement," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: "Boehner was at the center of every major House race in the country for years. Now, the former speaker's name is largely missing even in the campaign to fill his vacant southwest Ohio seat. The pack of candidates running to replace Boehner have been reluctant to even mention the man who was Washington's highest-ranking Republican for most of the past decade, the latest sign of how anti-Washington feelings have permeated GOP primaries around the country. Boehner is still a polarizing figure in his district, as he was in D.C. The dozen-plus candidates scrapping over GOP primary votes ahead of
 Tuesday's election don't want to limit themselves to either side by running on or against the ex-speaker's legacy. And Boehner himself declined to anoint a preferred successor, even as powerful outside groups targeted the district, hoping to capture his seat as a trophy."

- "Matt Borges, the chairman of the Ohio GOP, asked Boehner if the outgoing speaker wanted the state party to endorse a chosen successor. But Borges said Boehner instead requested that party not take sides. 'He told us he wanted it to play out, let it run its course,' Borges said. Boehner 'feels strongly that the people of the Eighth District should make the call about who will represent them in the House,' David Schnittger, who spent nearly two decades on Boehner's staff and now serves as his spokesman, wrote in an email." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=beab457efa2a84a6484bd5a36be014b2d299f945b070cae5f55d9d01a13056e3

EARLY MONEY - "EMILY's List dominates Maryland Senate primary," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "EMILY's List is spending record sums to elect Rep. Donna Edwards to the Senate - and, by extension, halt the political career of a longtime male ally whose supporters can't wrap their heads around the decision. Baffled backers of Rep. Chris Van Hollen cannot believe how much money ($2.5 million) the Democratic women's group is planning to spend ... It's the most EMILY's List has ever directed into a Democratic primary ... Yet from EMILY's List's perspective, anything other than all out support for Edwards ... would have gone directly against its decades-old, often anti-establishment mission:
 to help Democratic women win, especially against better-funded men, especially in open-seat primaries." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=beab457efa2a84a6ef0411104a40645e4b297bf60c370eb0c6df7e37dc26443a

- The money may be working: Edwards has a slightly lead over Van Hollen in a new poll conducted by OpinionWorks for The Baltimore Sun and the University of Baltimore, with 34 percent support to Van Hollen's 28 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=beab457efa2a84a6fa798488591683901c52fe9e25bd59363972cef285e8ffde

Days until the Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio primaries: 1.

Days until the 2016 election: 239. 

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about delicious Torchy's tacos. @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @kyledcheney.

LET'S PLAY MONEYBALL - Guests on Chris Matthews' "Hardball" gave wife's House campaign: Forty-eight frequent guests on Chris Matthews' "Hardball" TV show have given the House campaign of his wife, Kathleen Matthews, who's running for the open seat in Maryland's 8th District. "These individuals, their spouses, or their political action committees donated $79,050 as of December 31, 2015 - about 5 percent of the $1.5 million Matthews had raised as of that time," The Intercept reports. "Some of the guests made the donations after they were on the show - in some cases, long after. But in at least 11 of these cases, the Hardball guests appeared on the program after Kathleen Matthews announced her
 candidacy, and without any disclosure of the donations. And in at least three of those cases, the donations came within days of the MSNBC appearance." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=beab457efa2a84a6fd14d9544111e55186256f6573b41ab69d9902b44421b277

- Matthews, Raskin top new MD-08 internal poll: Democrats Kathleen Matthews and state Sen. Jamie Raskin continue to be the top candidates in the race to replace Democratic Rep. Chris Van Hollen in the Maryland's 8th District, according to a new poll out from the Matthews campaign, despite a massive ad blitz from self-funding wine magnate David Trone. The poll, conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang, found Raskin with 31 percent support and Matthews with 28 percent. Trone is in the third with 13 percent. Six other candidates all got less than 10 percent of the vote, while 13 percent are undecided. The poll of 402 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted from March 7 to March 9. 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=beab457efa2a84a657d0ac084298d42d4eb969e2935fddb611163c4a56497964

CASH HUSTLE - Strickland's pre-primary spending high in Ohio: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=beab457efa2a84a696e855aec2bbbf511dab4d6f853724ef9b5cc3d0d197effd

- 2018 WATCH - "Rubio's top Ohio surrogate ignored push to switch to Kasich," by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney: "On the surface, it seemed like an ordinary vote: Marco Rubio's top surrogate in Ohio, state Treasurer Josh Mandel, cast an early ballot for Rubio on Friday afternoon. But it was actually a subtle act of defiance. Time-stamped voting records show that Mandel voted for Rubio three hours after Rubio's campaign encouraged backers to vote for John Kasich instead - a tactical move intended to deny Donald Trump an Ohio victory. ... [It] won't wear well with pro-Kasich forces in Ohio who have long noted the tension between Mandel and Kasich. Already, the decision is inflaming tensions between
 Mandel," the party's 2012 Senate nominee who has already started fundraising for another campaign in 2018, "and pro-Kasich forces." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=beab457efa2a84a65288ef15ca5909af77723d34aa7a11a9a8dfc04f508ab50f

BACK FOR MORE - Tim Donnelly launches campaign against GOP representative in CA-08: Former California Assemblyman Tim Donnelly, an immigration firebrand who ran for governor of the state in 2014, announced Friday that he will run an "insurgent" campaign against GOP Rep. Paul Cook in the state's vast 8th District.

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Ted Cruz challenges John Kasich in visit before Ohio primary," by The Cincinnati Enquirer's Chrissie Thompson: "Ted Cruz is attempting to make Ohio's Republican primary a three-person race, sweeping into Columbus Sunday night insisting he's the only viable alternative to front-runner Donald Trump." While most polls show Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Trump tied for the lead, "a CBS News poll released Sunday - at this point, an aberration - showed Cruz within striking distance: with 27 percent among GOP likely voters to Kasich's and Trump's 33 percent each. Cruz cited the poll Sunday, to cheers from more than a thousand people. 

- "But Cruz's visit to Ohio was about more than eking out an improbable win and picking up the 66 delegates. ... Cruz has already sought to ensure a struggling Marco Rubio loses his home state of Florida Tuesday, campaigning heavily in the state even though Rubio's defeat almost certainly means Trump will win there. Now, with Kasich pulling even with Trump in Ohio, Cruz hopes to take away a few percentage points from the Ohio governor, ensuring he drops out of the race on Tuesday - even if that gives Trump the win in the Buckeye State." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=beab457efa2a84a6b73cd32532be1ea163a1046477151c0cb8204c85da003d72

- Mitt Romney will campaign with John Kasich today in Ohio, NBC News' Hallie Jackson reports: "Romney is not expected to endorse the Ohio governor during the campaign swing, the source said, but it will be the first time Romney has campaigned on behalf of a Republican candidate this cycle." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=beab457efa2a84a67056f20de2d8ea579bd16a4500c8366f2d011a6be41cbce1

- "Breaking down the Democratic map," by POLITICO's Daniel Strauss and Natasha Korecki: "Bernie Sanders has been looking forward to Tuesday's string of industrial Midwestern contests for some time, confident that his economic message and opposition to trade deals will resonate in working class areas hit hard by manufacturing losses and foreign competition." Sanders "figures to be competitive in at least three of Tuesday's five Democratic presidential primaries: Illinois, Missouri and Ohio. In the other two states, North Carolina and Florida, Hillary Clinton has the clear advantage." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=beab457efa2a84a69910d17d7352359d9f911f9b521b1b67b373fc1616635ced

- "Donald Trump's Tampa office is an unlikely melting pot," by The New York Times' David Barstow in Tampa: The volunteers at a Trump campaign office in Tampa are more diverse than you might expect. "They include a young woman who recently arrived from Peru; an immigrant from the Philippines; a 70-year-old Lakota Indian; a teenage son of Russian immigrants; a Mexican-American. They range the political spectrum, too, from lifelong Democrat to independent to libertarian to conservative Republican. To a person, they condemned and sometimes ridiculed David Duke and other white supremacists who have noisily backed Mr. Trump." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=beab457efa2a84a6d6fbd9bd323625405592dffcb54bccd953361f72b01a784d

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "We are two days away. Two days away from ending once and for all the menace of Marco Rubio." - Stephen Miller, a Trump aide, introducing Trump in Boca Raton, Fla. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=beab457efa2a84a69f6f9613d57dd69b15afdaad31b2958138d4f06d51f2f9a2

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