Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: INDIANA PRIMARY PREVIEW: The Senate race and two open House seats — Liberal SCOTUS nonprofit hits TV against Portman — Guinta faces one-on-one NH-01 primary as another Republican drops out
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 03 May 2016 08:02:05 -0600

By Theodoric Meyer | 05/03/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard, Scott Bland and Elena Schneider

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

HOOSIER PRIMARY - Young poised to beat Stutzman in Senate primary: Unless all the polls are wrong, GOP Rep. Todd Young is expected to bulldoze his more conservative rival, GOP Rep. Marlin Stutzman, in the Indiana Senate primary today. Here's what you need to remember: Stutzman's campaign has been in trouble for a while. He had to replace his consultants last fall, with staff quitting as the candidate decided to ditch national names for a local team. Young, meanwhile focused on undermining his outsider argument, alleging he used campaign cash for a vacation amid other charges. But the biggest factor? The nine-to-one TV ad advantage in Young's favor. His campaign and establishment Republican
 outside groups have spent $2.7 million on TV, to just $300,000 for Stutzman. The Club for Growth, which endorsed Stutzman, never went on the air to back him. On the Democratic side, former Rep. Baron Hill is unopposed.

- House Freedom Caucus looks for second win in IN-03: After winning its first electoral victory in neighboring Ohio in March, the House Freedom Caucus is hoping to pick up its second in Indiana's 3rd District. Freedom Caucus Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) has endorsed state Sen. Jim Banks, who's also gotten the nod from the Club for Growth and other conservative outside groups. The House Freedom Fund, the group's PAC, made its first-ever independent expenditure for Banks in March, shelling out $100,000 on TV ads. But one of Banks' rivals, Kip Tom, has outspent Banks after loaning his own campaign $150,000. Tom had spent about $695,000 to Banks' $660,000 as of April 21. A third Republican,
 state Sen. Liz Brown. has spent $252,000. Stutzman - himself a Freedom Caucus member - is vacating the seat to run for Senate, and there's little doubt it will remain in Republican hands.

- Hollingsworth has financial edge in IN-09 primary: National Republicans have mostly stayed out of the race to replace Young in Indiana's 9th District, but the contest has seen more than its share of outside spending. Trey Hollingsworth, a businessman from a wealthy Tennessee family who moved to the state last year, has spent far more than his three Republican rivals, shelling out $1.3 million - nearly all of which he contributed to the campaign himself. Hollingsworth has also benefited from a super PAC, Indiana Jobs Now, funded by his father that's run nearly half a million dollars worth of ads on his behalf. Outside groups backing the other candidates - Indiana Attorney General Greg
 Zoeller and state Sens. Erin Houchin and Brent Waltz - have struck back in recent weeks. The seat leans strongly Republican. Monroe County Councilwoman Shelli Yoder is the favorite on the Democratic side.

OH, THAT - "Trump pushes Cruz to the brink," by POLITICO's Patrick Reis: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77c27f81a7de1e5cf362e4e7b1034f61499a21d5bc0f63466bb2351326e2bef7

Days until the Nebraska and West Virginia primaries: 7. Days until the 2016 election: 189. 

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GETTING OUT - Tucker drops primary bid against Guinta: State Rep. Pam Tucker dropped out of the GOP primary in New Hampshire's 1st District on Monday, making her the second primary challenger to GOP Rep. Frank Guinta to leave the race in recent weeks. With "a young family and three daughters, it has become increasingly clear in recent days that now is not the right time for a congressional campaign," Tucker said in a statement. Her decision to call it quits sets up a two-man GOP primary race between Rich Ashooh, a former BAE Systems executive, and Guinta, who has defied calls for his resignation since he admitted to campaign finance violations last year." The seat is a top Democratic
 target. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77c27f81a7de1e5ce4053611bfc2c120c67f70e3c0fb2d60adda8655c9c865fd

TV TIMEOUT - Nonprofit hits the airwaves to attack Portman: The Constitutional Responsibility project, a Democratic nonprofit, will debut a new TV ad on Tuesday that accuses GOP Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio of "playing politics with the Supreme Court." The ad is almost exactly the same as one that group is using to attack GOP Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania on the same issue. The spot will run in the Columbus and Cincinnati markets over the recess. A spokeswoman would not say how much the group is spending. Watch the ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77c27f81a7de1e5ca539813851412e87d29405bdb6684c89ff0706986a1d8740

- Johnson reserves fall airtime in MI-01: Democrat Lon Johnson's campaign is buying $420,000 worth of fall airtime, his campaign said on Monday, a substantial buy in the cheap TV markets in Michigan's 1st District. "This is a solid initial investment that we can build off of as we get closer to the fall," Brian Peters, Johnson's campaign manager, said in a statement. Johnson is running for the open seat that GOP Rep. Dan Benishek is vacating.

- Freedom Partners Action Fund launches $3 million in Senate attacks: Freedom Partners Action Fund is launching $3 million in attack ads against two Democratic Senate challengers at the heart of the 2016 battleground map: Wisconsin's Russ Feingold and Nevada's Catherine Cortez Masto. The 60-second ad attacking Feingold features Ryan Honl, an Army veteran and former VA employee who blew the whistle on a scandal at VA medical center in Tomah, Wis. The group also released two 30-second ads attacking Masto, both focusing on how Masto outsourced work to a law firm that later donated to her campaign when she was Nevada's attorney general. Watch the Wisconsin ad: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77c27f81a7de1e5ca079f25c1a9dc2da2a3f22c290e6e4c773c124d48d15e8df Watch the Nevada ads: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77c27f81a7de1e5ca16112efd98be8d535e0ac6d64d2039196c88117cf692252 and http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77c27f81a7de1e5cf8998828123160b96e90d616519c2293623667ad6990fc78

- Pape releases second ad in KY-01: Republican Mike Pape, who's running for the open seat in Kentucky's 1st District, drew a lot of attention with his first TV ad, which featured three Mexicans cutting through the border fence. Now he's out with a second spot, which shows a Donald Trump voter and a Ted Cruz voter bonding over their support for Pape. The ad started airing on Monday as part of a six-figure buy in the Paducah, Evansville, Nashville, Bowling Green and Lexington markets. Rising Tide is Pape's media consultant. Watch the ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77c27f81a7de1e5c162e7276114e1841ace1d3af576779c49aa24a9f3b21775a

RULING IT OUT - "After months of consideration, Gibson decides against bid for governor," by POLITICO New York's Scott Waldman: "GOP Rep. Chris Gibson "announced on Monday that he will not run for governor in 2018, but instead will take a lecturer position at Williams College. ... Gibson, who has a reputation as being one of the most moderate Republicans in Congress, had increased his criticism of Cuomo in recent months as he seemed to begin to position himself to run against him. Cuomo, though, has a campaign war chest of more than $10 million, and Gibson would have struggled to fundraise at a similar level over the next two years." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77c27f81a7de1e5ce131c07a6ff8a5ed99f9d0d13bb9d3c02a4a9665231fb2c6

OPPO GOES CORPORATE - "Political operatives find demand for their skills in business world," by The Wall Street Journal's Patrick O'Connor: "America Rising, the unofficial research arm of the Republican Party, has launched a for-profit venture aimed at helping companies, trade associations and wealthy individuals push back against detractors and navigate sensitive shareholder or public-policy fights. ... [T]he new company, Definers, is arming clients with the arsenal available to the most well-funded political candidates, including dossiers on their opponents' strengths and weaknesses, tracking tools to monitor what people are saying in traditional and social media, and a rapid-response
 operation to shape public fights." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77c27f81a7de1e5c75ed85c59c962a5f68269ac999761a170b9a0dbc48555625

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "'Stop Trump' to Cruz: Win Indiana, or else," by POLITICO's Shane Goldmacher: Ted Cruz vowed Monday that he's 'in for the distance,' but if the Texas senator loses Indiana on Tuesday he risks big donors abandoning the Stop Trump effort that has spent millions supporting him in battleground states. More than a half-dozen Republicans involved in the pro-Cruz and anti-Trump push told POLITICO that Indiana was crucial for Cruz to keeping the cash flowing, as skittish donors have grown weary after a string of recent losses. 'If he can't be stopped in Indiana, you will have a lot of people who just throw up their arms and say, "Well, I guess he can't be stopped,"' said
 Erick Erickson, an influential Republican activist who has tried to organize anti-Trump forces. 'I think the super donors or the mega donors - they stop spending money.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77c27f81a7de1e5cd47438da9c5c052222413e76e0914adc05d417ee4e9fa27c

- "Sanders seeks to end his free fall," by POLITICO's Daniel Strauss: Indiana won't have a dramatic effect on Bernie Sanders' fortunes - win or lose, he's said he's fighting on through the convention. But a win Tuesday would be a much-needed respite from a week of headlines suggesting his campaign is sputtering and his path to the nomination is all but gone." Hillary Clinton has "strong support from the state's top Democrats, but Sanders has an ace-in-the-hole: Indiana's open primary format, which voters don't need to be Democrats to participate in the Democratic primary. Open primaries are where Sanders shines: They helped grease his path to victory in Midwestern wins in Michigan and
 Wisconsin. 'It's close,' said former Indiana Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh, a top Clinton surrogate." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77c27f81a7de1e5c5ab2de513e9a7b957ce4cdec3558a6e6d0f30d20d377123e

- "Delegate hunt fuels tussle on little-known Republican committee," by The Wall Street Journal's Reid J. Epstein: "On Friday, Virginia Haines, an RNC committeewoman from New Jersey, resigned her post as one of nine members of the party's Committee on Contests, which has initial jurisdiction in settling disputes over which delegates can be seated at the GOP national convention in July. ... Mr. Trump's allies are now waging a fierce battle against two other RNC members seeking to replace her, one of whom has expressed anti-Trump sentiment and the other has claimed neutrality in the internal showdown." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77c27f81a7de1e5cdf55f8bb9c2902438fc9cf6e1ab93d4b0b9b94375bc6a998

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "This election is about so much more than Ted Cruz and Carly Fiorina." - Carly Fiorina. Matt Flegenheimer, the New York Times reporter who tweeted the quote, noted that he didn't think anyone would disagree. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=77c27f81a7de1e5c18c63796cfd0b62ac70bfab5fde2f78961b6dc36dc28687c

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