Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Early exit polling from California Senate — Unusual bedfellows in NC-13 race — Ads, ads and more ads
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 03 Jun 2016 08:25:50 -0600

By Scott Bland | 06/03/2016 10:23 AM EDT

With Theodoric Meyer, Kevin Robillard and Maggie Severns

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

NEW THIS MORNING - Early exit polling in California Senate race: Capitol Weekly partnered with voter-data expert Paul Mitchell and pollster Jonathan Brown to reach out to 14,000 voters (and counting) online with exit poll surveys of absentee ballot-casters. They've broken down their Senate results by congressional district in an interactive graphic out this morning. However, it is important to note that these exit polls do not reach voters who do not list their email addresses, so it could be excluding populations without easy access to email or those who chose not to include it. 

- So far, the exit poll shows leading Democrat Kamala Harris with a runaway advantage, breaking 50 percent. Rep. Loretta Sanchez, the other major Democratic candidate, comes in second place, with just under 14 percent. Duf Sundheim, a former state Republican Party chairman, is in third place with just over 8 percent. The other 29 candidates on the ballot fail to break 5 percent, many under 1 percent. Check out the graphic here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c9f0bbc55cda84870c58fac1ab479bb1e4e11a49a4fe54be0534726ed8d32a3e 

UNUSUAL BEDFELLOWS - The League of Conservation Voters is backing a little-known Republican candidate in North Carolina's 13th District, where 17 GOP hopefuls are competing in a primary for an open, safely red seat. The group's independent expenditure arm is spending just under $43,000 on mailers in support of Jason Walser, executive director of LandTrust for Central North Carolina, from Salisbury, N.C., according to the Federal Elections Commission filing. LCV, which usually backs Democrats, said it hasn't officially endorsed in the race. But "we work to support pro-conservation candidates in both parties," said spokesman Seth Stein. He declined to share the content of the mailer. 

FIRST ACTION - Senate Conservatives Fund to launch first 2016 ads in Colorado: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c9f0bbc55cda8487106f810a6f85469da2aa5b123bf7f0df041e56476d78a22f

PRE-PRIMARY REPORTS - In NV-04 ... Flores outraises NV-04 primary rivals, thanks to Sanders: Lucy Flores pulled in far more than both of her Democratic primary rivals combined ahead of the primary in Nevada's 4th District, thanks to a single email sent by Bernie Sanders. Flores, who's in a tight three-way primary for a seat held by vulnerable GOP Rep. Cresent Hardy, raised about $610,000 between April 1 and May 25, allowing her to spend $532,000. Democrat Ruben Kihuen pulled in about $215,000 and spent $475,000, while Susie raised about $184,000 and spent $557,000. Hardy, meanwhile, raised less than $53,000 in the period.

- In NV-03 ... For GOP Rep. Joe Heck's competitive southern Nevada seat, Republican Michele Fiore leads in fundraising in the last six weeks, bringing in $165,000, per her pre-primary report. But state Sen. Michael Roberson, the establishment favorite, leads her on cash on hand, with $294,000 in the bank, raising $68,000 in the last six weeks, while Fiore has $74,000 in the bank. Danny Tarkanian, another Republican, brought in $38,000 during the pre-primary period, with $64,000 in cash on hand. On the Democrats side, Jesse Sbaih, who alleged that Sen. Harry Reid warned him against running because he is a Muslim, leads in cash on hand, with $564,000 in the bank, but much of it is due to his
 $600,000 loan to his campaign. Jacky Rosen, backed by EMILY's List, raised $129,000 in the last six weeks with $150,000 in the bank. 

- In VA-02 ... Forbes goes into primary with cash advantage: GOP Rep. Randy Forbes spent close to eight times as much on his campaign in April and May as Scott Taylor, his main primary opponent in Virginia's 2nd congressional district, according to new FEC filings. Forbes - who is switching from representing the state's 4th district to run in the recently redrawn 2nd district - raised $284,850 in the months leading up to the primary and will go into its final stretch with close to half a million dollars on hand. Taylor raised $40,684 and has spent all but $30,695.

Days until the California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota primaries, North Dakota's Democratic presidential primary and North Carolina's House primary: 4. Days until the 2016 election: 157.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about the Rock: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

FIRST IN SCORE - Republicans attack "Shady Katie": The NRSC is out with a new microsite labeling Democrat Katie McGinty "Shady Katie," The site is modeled after a LinkedIn page, with snarky job descriptions and sarcastic "endorsements" from John Fetterman and others. But the branding looks to be more than just a single website. Expect "Shady Katie" to become the GOP's standard nickname for the candidate, like "Retread Ted" is for Ohio's Ted Strickland. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c9f0bbc55cda848755c9c8db97677ab0dad547101757c0f132c587c6be47a952

GIVE ME THAT POLL-TIME RELIGION - Republican firms' Iowa polls contain rough news for Democrats: The Quad City Times reports on a poll from Remington Research Group, a GOP firm, finding DSCC-endorsed Patty Judge is just barely avoiding a convention following Tuesday's Democratic primary. Judge, a former Lt. Gov. gets 37 percent of the vote to state Sen. Rob Hogg's 31 percent. Judge needs more than 35 percent of the vote to avoid a convention. The robopoll surveyed 1,361 likely Democratic primary voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c9f0bbc55cda848758190ce3b51cb9374d9b5518f79cf7a4777812b55c97d59e

- Meanwhile, a North Star Opinion Research Poll found only 9 percent of Iowans say the Supreme Court will be one of their top three issues in this year's Senate race. Democrats have tried to make Sen. Chuck Grassley's refusal to hold hearings on Merrick Garland's nomination a central issue in the contest. The Judicial Crisis Network, which has provided cover for senators seeking to delay Garland, paid for the poll. Memo here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c9f0bbc55cda848794750201c17598e9f20fd9435d542deb04fedd1f2b499799

- MORE FROM IOWA - Mike Sherzan, a Democratic candidate in Iowa's third district, released polling information conducted by his campaign Thursday showing Sherzan ahead of his competitor, Jim Mowrer, by 14 points in the competitive primary. But Mowrer -- who ran his first negative ad on Sherzan this week -- is not conceding much ahead of next week's vote. Sherzan released "a ridiculous poll," Mowrer told Morning Score on Thursday. "I don't take that seriously in the slightest." Hours later, he released his own numbers that show the two candidates neck-and-neck with each other. See Mowrer's polling: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c9f0bbc55cda84875dffd630a4ca13c54ea47b8db90a931b189be99fa119c270 And Sherzan's: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c9f0bbc55cda84875dffd630a4ca13c54ea47b8db90a931b189be99fa119c270 

COMMERCIAL BREAK - In New York House races ... EMILY's List is going up with a new TV ad backing Anna Throne-Holst, who's facing a competitive Democratic primary for a GOP-held swing seat on Long Island. The positive spot from Women Vote!, EMILY's List's super PAC, calls Throne-Holst "a proven progressive" who "will stand up to extreme Republicans to fight for us, to defend Planned Parenthood, fight against cuts to Social Security and Medicare and protect Long Island's natural resources." ... Women Vote! is also sending out mailers in a neighboring district backing Anna Kaplan, one of five Democrats running for retiring Democratic Rep. Steve Israel 's swing seat.

- In North Carolina ... The Faith & Freedom Coalition is out with an attack ad on Democrat Roy Cooper for not "doing your job" in defending HB2. The ad will air for the next two weeks in Raleigh and Charlotte, but the group declined to provide more details on the buy. The ad says, "But what if the girls didn't want the boys in their restrooms? ...So movie stars and business tycoons heard the story and made the issue a huge national mess. President Obama latched on and, well, you know the rest," a child narrator says. "We deserve privacy. Attorney General Roy Cooper should do his one job, defend North Carolina." Watch the ad here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c9f0bbc55cda8487c4c80773df0ecc35bf13c5e23888833287d180533cc8d57e 

- More new ads here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c9f0bbc55cda8487106f810a6f85469da2aa5b123bf7f0df041e56476d78a22f 

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Donald Trump Keeps Up Attacks on Judge Gonzalo Curiel," by The Wall Street Journal's Brent Kendall: "Donald Trump on Thursday escalated his attacks on the federal judge presiding over civil fraud lawsuits against Trump University, amid criticism from legal observers who say the presumptive GOP presidential nominee's comments are an unusual affront on an independent judiciary. In an interview, Mr. Trump said U.S. District Judge Gonzalo Curiel had 'an absolute conflict' in presiding over the litigation given that he was 'of Mexican heritage' and a member of a Latino lawyers' association. Mr. Trump said the background of the judge, who was born in Indiana to Mexican
 immigrants, was relevant because of his campaign stance against illegal immigration and his pledge to seal the southern U.S. border. 'I'm building a wall. It's an inherent conflict of interest,' Mr. Trump said." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c9f0bbc55cda848713c694105e672cac299dd7bbae0309c9ef6a5fef265fa8c1 

- "Ryan, McConnell lock arms with Trump," by POLITICO's John Bresnahan: "Paul Ryan was the last holdout. By bowing to Donald Trump, the new power inside the Republican Party, the House speaker and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell have consummated the marriage that the GOP establishment has resisted all year long. Their political fates are now formally hitched to the bombastic businessman, and they'll have to deal with the consequences. ... Both men have made clear that their support for Trump has its limits and that Republican candidates will be advised, even encouraged, to run as far away from the presumptive nominee as they need to. ... Overall, the two Republican leaders have shown
 they believe Trump is a better choice than Hillary Clinton - but not by much." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c9f0bbc55cda848705b2bd97dd86ff2dc704b4daf4e094b086ebce33d3269e4c 

- "A shared Clinton-Ryan message: Enough already," by POLITICO's Eli Stokols: "...In a careful appeal for Democratic unity days ahead of a difficult California primary, Clinton aimed to project a presidential bearing and to contrast herself with a presumptive Republican nominee she said has a 'dangerously incoherent' worldview that makes him 'temperamentally unfit' to be commander in chief. ... In a matter of minutes, with five days left before the final contests of the nomination calendar, the general election between Clinton and Trump had fully engaged." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c9f0bbc55cda84874fcaa8791a7e270353e857bb8a2f80a672cf0404a5898636 

- FIRST IN SCORE - Bridge digital ad hits Trump U: American Bridge is putting a new ad on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram compiling rough television coverage of Trump U and contrasting it with an introductory video Trump made for the faux university that multiple lawsuits allege was a scam. Watch it here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c9f0bbc55cda84874644c61b29790badaeea22763099b89ce7c66a2c6add6c0c

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I won't get my panties in a wedge because of what I am hearing from the political candidates," said former Secretary of State James Baker on Donald Trump, POLITICO reported. 

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