Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Jolly mulling switch to House run in Florida — One Nation returns to the air in Missouri — House candidates see Bernie fundraising boost
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 09 Jun 2016 08:03:23 -0600

By Theodoric Meyer | 06/09/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard, Elena Schneider, Scott Bland and Maggie Severns

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

FLORIDA MAN WEIGHS OPTIONS - "David Jolly considering withdrawing from Senate race," by POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: "Under intense local, state and national pressure, U.S. Rep. David Jolly is considering whether to drop his bid for U.S. Senate and run for reelection against former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist. Jolly's campaign would neither confirm nor deny the degree to which he's weighing his options, only saying that 'nothing has changed' concerning his Senate bid. But those familiar with Jolly's thinking say he has watched his chances in the crowded GOP Senate primary transform for the worse in recent weeks while a reelection bid for Florida's 13th congressional district have
 brightened. State and local Republicans in the Tampa Bay region have made pledges of support and shared polling data showing he could do well against Crist." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fbc850c71d38ad8c82cd7b73d0ef2ae6af2e24e5a38d0787fe8c14ebb4dfa516

NEW THIS MORNING - One Nation returns to the air in Missouri with military families spot: One Nation, the nonprofit aligned with Senate Republican leadership, is back on the air in Missouri with an ad boosting GOP Sen. Roy Blunt for authoring legislation providing military families with moving assistance and educational aid. The group aired a similar ad last fall. The spot will run through June 18 and is the first half of a $1.5 million buy in the state. Watch the ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=312617f070cf8eaa462ed3b696bce2957f6b6c9f9675ea70f413cf512a0fb24a

- MORE AIR SUPPORT - Ending Spending going big in NV-03: Ending Spending is flooding Las Vegas with TV ads the week before Nevada's primaries, trying to boost Michael Roberson over Danny Tarkanian in a battleground GOP House primary. The group, which is chaired by megadonor Joe Ricketts, is up with two television ads in Nevada's 3rd District, one attacking Tarkanian as scandal-plagued and another promoting Roberson, a Republican leader in the state Senate. Ending Spending bought over $1.2 million in TV time to air its ads. Watch Ending Spending's anti-Tarkanian ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=312617f070cf8eaa99ef1ba7a16d3aa61c073133fd5e8ee1409a636d31077272 See the group's other ad here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=fbc850c71d38ad8c2e2b29db4f1e927c45d6d9f07e02eef3e2c75b0e851576cf

THE BERN-OODLES EFFECT - House candidates see fundraising boost after Sanders' email: Two underfunded Democratic House candidates got a fundraising boost after Bernie Sanders sent a note to his venerated email list on their behalf Tuesday, urging his supporters to donate to them. Eric Kingson, who's facing two primary rivals for the right to face GOP Rep. John Katko in upstate New York, pulled in about $35,000 in the 24 hours after Sanders sent the email, according to Kingson spokeswoman Lauren Livingston - a sizable haul, though not as much as earlier Sanders-backed candidates had reported. 

- And Paul Clements, who's running for GOP Rep. Fred Upton's Michigan seat, went from about 2,000 total contributors to 8,500 overnight, according to his campaign. His campaign would not provide fundraising numbers.

Days until the District of Columbia Democratic primary and the Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina and Virginia congressional primaries: 5. Days until the 2016 election: 152.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about Iranian footballers: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

COMING AROUND - "Elizabeth Warren planning to endorse Hillary Clinton," by The Boston Globe's Annie Linskey: "Senator Elizabeth Warren is planning to endorse Hillary Clinton, according to two advisers close to the Massachusetts senator. Warren is also intrigued by the possibility that she could be picked as Clinton's vice president, but she is not sure that the move would make sense for her, according to the two advisers who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss her plans freely. Warren is the only Democratic female senator who hasn't given her nod to Clinton, though she has emerged as a forceful surrogate attacking Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump in recent weeks." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=312617f070cf8eaa15e1449d9f29c363be636301f668437bd9cf81892a0f46fe

FOR WHOM THE BELL POLLS - Toomey 41, McGinty 38 in new Pennsylvania automated poll: Democratic robopollster Public Policy Polling is out with its second swing state poll in as many days, this time in Pennsylvania, and neither GOP Sen. Pat Toomey nor Democrat Katie McGinty looks terribly popular there. The two are essentially tied: Toomey has 41 percent of the vote to McGinty's 38 percent. But only 29 percent of voters approve of Toomey's job performance, while 41 percent disapprove. McGinty isn't well-loved, either: 26 percent of voters have a positive opinion of her and 34 percent have a negative opinion. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points. Full results: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=312617f070cf8eaab3dadd9c1fa0fe51957ba0d573eb4f0b7308ecbfeb172d25

VICTORY LAP - Harris maps out strategy to beat Sanchez: Strategists for Kamala Harris, who took 40 percent of the vote last night in California's Senate primary, didn't any time charting out plans for the Democrat vs. Democrat campaign against Rep. Loretta Sanchez in a press call on Wednesday. They highlighted Harris' wide margins - Sanchez won less than 19 percent of the primary vote - as well as Harris' success in cutting into some of Sanchez's coalition, like Latinos and Republicans. According to online exit polls, Harris and Sanchez split the Latino vote and Harris won twice as many Republican votes as Sanchez. "We are going into the second half with a three touchdown lead and we do not
 intend, in any shape or form, to take our foot off the gas," said Harris consultant Ace Smith.

- But Sanchez has help on the way - from Republicans. A GOP consultant in California is setting up a super PAC to aid Sanchez, who's considered less liberal than Harris, The Los Angeles Times' Phil Willon reports. "Sacramento consultant Dave Gilliard said the pro-Sanchez campaign by the Jobs Opportunity and Freedom PAC will be focused on Republican voters because no GOP candidate will be on the November ballot. 'Representative Sanchez's experience on national issues, especially those related to national security, veterans and public safety, make her the easy choice in November,' Gilliard said in a statement." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=312617f070cf8eaa3b7457ed9249995613eee1add55509e6daf10759dcb39342

STILL WAITING - No AP calls yet in several California House races: More than 24 hours after the polls closed in California, The Associated Press still hadn't called who will face GOP Rep. Paul Cook in California's 8th District, even though all precincts were reporting. The call could make a difference in the November elections, since one of Cook's potential opponents is a Republican and the other a Democrat. (The top two vote-getters advance regardless of party in the state.) Cook easily secured a spot on the ballot with 43 percent of the vote, while Democrat Rita Ramirez had 22 percent and Republican Tim Donnelly had 21 percent, with two other Democrats splitting the rest of the vote. The
 vast rural district leans strongly Republican. 

- The AP also hasn't made calls in two more races. In the 24th District, one of two Republicans - Justin Fareed or Katcho Achadjian - will face Democrat Salud Carbajal for the Democratic-leaning open seat. And in the 21st District, it's still unclear which Democrat will challenge GOP Rep. David Valadao. Washington Democrats' preferred candidate, Emilio Huerta, is behind Daniel Parra, with 20.4 percent of the vote to Parra's 21.4 percent.

- MORE RESULTS - Aguilar, Ruiz, Peters draw Republican challengers: Three Southern California Democratic congressmen all drew Republican challengers in more late results from Tuesday night. Rep. Pete Aguilar, who represents an Inland Empire seat, took 43 percent of the vote and will face Republican Paul Chabot, who took 24 percent. Rep. Raul Ruiz, whose district includes Palm Springs, took 57 percent of the vote and will face Republican Jeff Stone, who won 33 percent. And Rep. Scott Peters, who represents a San Diego district, took 59 percent of the vote and will face Republican Denise Gitsham, who won 16 percent. All three districts are potentially competitive in the general election. See
 all the California House results here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=312617f070cf8eaa688ecbc039d7fa5b193b9620d08efe5bd3cc4c7a4809f4c5

FIRST IN SCORE - John Bolton Super PAC running digital ads backing Heck, Ayotte: The John Bolton Super PAC is spending $100,000 on a new digital ad campaign backing GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire and Rep. Joe Heck, who's running for retiring Sen. Harry Reid's seat in Nevada. The ads will air for the next two weeks. Watch the Ayotte ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=312617f070cf8eaafe3e0f9bf45378b103c3a2f0873689e012e9eac81563af21 Watch the Heck ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=312617f070cf8eaaec47a8c96d15b9a1cb11cdcc30c8e40c0aff2a17ed3f6457

CORRECTION - Yesterday's Morning Score reported that David Larsen had lost in his third attempt to unseat GOP Rep. Leonard Lance in New Jersey's 7th District. It was actually Larsen's fourth attempt. We regret the error.

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Trump prepares charge sheet against Clinton," by POLITICO's Eli Stokols: "Donald Trump's team is hunkering down to draft the charge sheet the presumptive GOP nominee will unveil against Hillary Clinton on Monday, intent on laying out a credible general-election argument that leads voters to question her trustworthiness. ... But many Republicans worry that the former reality TV star's penchant for focusing on the Clintons' personal lives and scandals of years past-he declared them "fair game" months ago as he bulldozed to the finish line of a Republican primary-could undermine the more disciplined case party leaders have been making against Clinton for a year -
 that the Democrat's email controversy and actions in Benghazi show she is too irresponsible to be commander in chief." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=312617f070cf8eaad11f69001811b2d3772e75e7dc925d5d84d86deb9c4d8272

- "Trump's fundraisers see no chance of hitting $1 billion," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "Donald Trump's top financiers are slashing their fundraising expectations and warning the GOP's presumptive nominee could find himself massively out-gunned by Hillary Clinton. In interviews, over a dozen major Republican Party donors and fundraisers who've signed on to help Trump raise money said they expected Trump to net only a fraction of his original $1 billion goal, perhaps netting less than a third of that. ... That would almost certainly leave Trump at a steep disadvantage: Clinton is widely expected to hit the $1 billion mark, as President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney did in 2012. And it
 could have serious ripple-effects, leaving Republican down-ballot candidates, who are dependent on the national party to mount a well-funded turnout operation, in the lurch." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=312617f070cf8eaa92c74facdb71aa3c30ba2600177feab5d404372780cd1883

- "Senate Dems strive for Bernie peace accord," by POLITICO's Seung Min Kim and Burgess Everett: "Senate Democrats have a new strategy for easing Bernie Sanders out of the presidential campaign: Flatter him and give him some space. With Sanders on his way to Washington on Thursday, his colleagues in the Senate are softening their once-sharp rhetoric toward the independent senator who ran an insurgent campaign against Hillary Clinton. ... Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.), who called on Sanders to 'stand down now' as voters were heading to the polls during the June 7 primaries, said Wednesday that he was confident the Vermont senator was, indeed, standing down." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=312617f070cf8eaa2b1f8866225868840025c521675032e745f4ad48da0fadcf

- "Donald Trump hires pollster for New York," by The New York Times' Maggie Haberman: "Donald J. Trump has hired a new pollster to help him capture an elusive Republican victory in New York, his home state, two people briefed on the move said. The pollster, John McLaughlin, will be focusing exclusively on New York, polling to determine what type of climb Mr. Trump would face in a state that hasn't voted for a Republican in a presidential race since Ronald Reagan in 1984." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=312617f070cf8eaaba76f282bd5fd2d8402cf8ab9782f5c22cb38da1c93128cd

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Something that walks like a duck, talks like a duck, is likely to be a duck. If you continue to say what I believe are racist statements, you're likely to be a racist." - Rep. Reid Ribble (R-Wis.), who stopped just short of calling Donald Trump a racist. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=312617f070cf8eaaa1ff07ccef998127b3bf883ed438662ee273de6013a59379

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