Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Online polling experiment in California — George W. Bush to campaign for Senate candidates — Rubio watch continues
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2016 08:03:24 -0600

By Kevin Robillard | 06/17/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Scott Bland, Maggie Severns and Theodoric Meyer

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

FUTURE FOCUSED - "Online polling experiment finds success in California," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "California voter-data expert Paul Mitchell and pollster Jonathan Brown conducted an all-online 'exit poll' of 500,000 California absentee voters ahead of the June 7 primary, using email addresses from the state voter file to ask people who had cast ballots how they voted. About 40,000 voters responded, providing the only exit data in the Democratic presidential race there - as well as the U.S. Senate contest and dozens of congressional and state legislative primaries. For an industry weighed down by regulations and rising costs, the poll was as much an experiment on the future of
 online polling as it was a tool to give primary-watchers real-time data and insights." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9b929816397bf0c8b713705aae1f153fc66554b309d0225990f0261ceab6804d

THE COWBOY RIDES AGAIN - George W. Bush is preparing to campaign for GOP senators, the New York Times' Jonathan Martin and Maggie Haberman report: "After eight years of largely abstaining from politics, former President George W. Bush is throwing himself into an effort to save his party's most vulnerable senators, including several whose re-election campaigns have been made more difficult by Donald J. Trump's presence at the top of the ticket. In the weeks since Mr. Trump emerged as the party's presumptive presidential nominee, Mr. Bush has headlined fund-raisers for ... Senators John McCain of Arizona ... and Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire." He also has an event scheduled for Missouri Sen.
 Roy Blunt and is making plans to raise money for Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson and Ohio Sen. Rob Portman. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9b929816397bf0c8e3cd08f0da56a8ebdcb1c3efbe0944c90a0c726eca2aba27

DEADLINE DAY - Pre-primary FEC reports - Singer gives $500,000 to super PAC backing New York Republican: Billionaire GOP megadonor Paul Singer wrote a $500,000 check last month to New York Wins, a super PAC backing Republican House candidates in New York, according to an FEC filing. The donation was dated May 13, the week after Trump clinched the GOP nomination and four days after Singer reportedly called Trump unacceptable at a private dinner. Singer's fellow New York megadonor Robert Mercer wrote New York Wins a $500,000 check earlier this year. So far, NY-19 candidate John Faso has been the PAC's only beneficiary, to the tune of nearly $900,000. The group also plans to support GOP Rep.
 Lee Zeldin.

- BATTLEGROUND PRIMARIES - NY-01 Dems: Anna Throne-Holst raised about $274,000 and had $660,000 on hand to end the pre-primary period; Dave Calone raised $170,000 and had $501,000 on hand. - NY-03 Dems: Thomas Suozzi raised $285,000 and had $312,000 on hand; Anna Kaplan raised $236,000 and had $107,000 on hand; Steve Stern raised $173,000 and had $117,000 on hand; Jon Kaiman raised $78,000 and had $48,000 on hand... More here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9b929816397bf0c86e63b703313125f2730903c8ccd955aebf03b656ce5c1f7f

There are 143 days until the 2016 election. There are 11 days until the Colorado, New York, Oregon and Utah congressional primaries. Thanks for joining us. I'm Kevin Robillard, taking a spin at the wheel of Morning Score this week. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and the United States men's national soccer team advancing to the semifinals of the Copa America: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

MEET THE CANDIDATE - Elena Schneider sat down with Bryan Caforio, the Democratic nominee to take on GOP Rep. Steve Knight in CA-25. A snippet of the Q&A:

- On tying Knight to GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump: "You've got Donald Trump, who refused to disavow the KKK, and you've got Steve Knight who voted for the Confederate flag on multiple occasions. ... People pay most attention to the presidential race. They're going to be seeing every single day the hateful, hurtful rhetoric that Donald Trump is putting out there, and when they look down the ballot and learn more about Steve Knight and see he's right there with Donald Trump on those issues, we're going to see people go the other way."

- On whether he'd want to campaign with his own party's nominee: "She hasn't asked me to do so yet. But I think it'd be great for us to call attention to this district. ... It'd be great for her to come out and show [those constituents] are not forgotten." Read more here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9b929816397bf0c8ccee5dfd4174e326dabc49ef2950301411e71cfe10eb0655

AIR WARS - Super PAC hits the air to back Marshall in KS-01: A super PAC affiliated with the Kansas Livestock Association has started airing radio ads backing Roger Marshall, GOP Rep. Tim Huelskamp's primary challenger. "For four years, one of the largest agricultural districts in the nation has been without a voice on the U.S. House Agriculture Committee, but a candidate has arrived who can reclaim this seat," the ad's narrator says. Huelskamp, who was just endorsed by the Club for Growth, was kicked off the Ag Committee in 2012 after defying House Republican leadership. The super PAC, the Kansas Ag Communities Committee, also backed GOP Sen. Pat Roberts in 2014. It's spending about
 $21,000 to air the 60-second ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9b929816397bf0c8b571de398c647e5c401658988d90f0c259f745702307f27b

- AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT: One of the more creative spots of the election so far comes from the U.S. Chamber in Pennsylvania. The spot ends with a screaming child running away from an actor portraying Democrat Katie McGinty, because she wants to tax his energy. Trust us, it makes sense in context. Malorie Thompson of Something Else Strategies made the 30-second spot. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9b929816397bf0c8b8101e9959155e9262fa7d7d8fcf8cba0eedb48cc4734f71

- NEW THIS A.M.: LET'S GET DIGITAL - Democratic Lexington Mayor Jim Gray attacks Paul, links gun control and national security in new digital spot: The ad features images of news clips about the Orlando shootings and a narrator saying, "With America under attack, when will Rand Paul vote to prevent terrorists from buying dangerous weapons?" The spot shows how the Orlando shooting could link national security and gun control in some campaign efforts, and also indicates Gray may adopt more hawkish positions than Paul throughout the contest. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9b929816397bf0c8159f59a65cc3337a8b9e96ac6de1f12967128d2307d31e82

RUBIO WATCH - NRSC Chair Roger Wicker continues to lobby Florida Sen. Marco Rubio to run for reelection. In an interview with the Tampa Bay Times, he praised Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera as "a patriot and an unselfish one at that" for asking Rubio to run for reelection. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9b929816397bf0c849d7aa40298af21c4b3507af67d7e4db524e0427cb6a0e5f

- Democrat Steve Schale, who ran Obama's 2008 and 2012 efforts in the state, offers some questions Rubio should ask himself. His ultimate conclusion? "If Rubio wants to be a Senator, or just has a need to be in the public spotlight, he should run. But if his goal is to be President, which I suspect has been his goal since running for the West Miami Commission in 1998, he should resist the temptation and trust what was clearly his plan up until a few weeks ago." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9b929816397bf0c86a70efb778416f99cfddef3e3f46fb2b531f3121b62a164c

- And POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo reports on yet another sign Carlos Beruff has zero intentions of leaving the race: "Melissa Sellers, Gov. Rick Scott's former chief of staff who managed his re-election campaign in 2014, has been hired as a consultant for Carlos Beruff's U.S. Senate campaign." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9b929816397bf0c86b8b93e92255d96667131402d2228ca2dfda66966211e603

DAN, WE HARDLY KNEW YE - Dan Sullivan drops out of Alaska Senate race: Alaska will only have one Sen. Dan Sullivan next year. Former Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan dropped his primary challenge to GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski on Thursday, just two weeks after he filed to run. "I believe that I can best serve Alaska by staying in Alaska and working on local and statewide issues," Sullivan said in a statement. He also conspicuously left the door open to "seeking another elected office in the future." The most likely bets: A run for governor or another campaign for Anchorage mayor.

DON'T POLL IT A COMEBACK - DCCC poll: Deacon leading rivals ahead of NY-24 primary: In GOP Rep. John Katko's target district, 50 percent of likely Democratic primary voters supported Colleen Deacon, a former district director for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, according to the survey. Seventeen percent support Steve Williams, a lawyer, and 8 percent support Eric Kingson, a Syracuse University professor recently endorsed by Bernie Sanders. The poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. More new congressional polls: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9b929816397bf0c86e63b703313125f2730903c8ccd955aebf03b656ce5c1f7f

NAVIGATING TRUMP - Illinois GOP Sen. Mark Kirk calls Trump racist: Kirk, who has already unendorsed Trump, was asked who he would support in the presidential election. "I do not support Hillary Clinton," Kirk said. "And I told the public that I did not support Donald Trump, either. I think he's too bigoted and racist for the Land of Lincoln." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9b929816397bf0c87f35b56cd5d59157ad4cb5e04ff2a9bd0495234808599c06

- Michigan Rep. Fred Upton also doesn't plan to back Trump: Upton, a committee chairman, said he didn't plan to endorse a presidential candidate. "We're running our own race, and don't look for me to endorse anyone in this race probably the rest of the year," he said on a local radio show, according to the Detroit News. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9b929816397bf0c8948bb01c494a77618bb75c16e295cdecc38fd1d30d2d2692

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Sanders vows to work with Clinton to transform the Democratic Party," by POLITICO's Gabriel Debenedetti in Butlington, Vt.: "Bernie Sanders refused to concede in the Democratic primary against Hillary Clinton during a live-streamed video address to his supporters on Thursday night, pledging to take his army of delegates to the party's July convention - but no longer directly addressing the possibility of defeating the presumptive nominee. ... Delivering his first speech to supporters in a week ... Sanders got as close as he has to acknowledging that Clinton has won, but he devoted the bulk of his remarks to outlining the 'political revolution' he has been stumping
 for over the last year." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9b929816397bf0c8afac3386657ce89249e3ff051955ce520cb2e1264b6753da

- "Trump and Bill Clinton photos set to go public," by POLITICO's Josh Gerstein: "The Clinton Presidential Library is preparing to release behind-the-scenes photos of presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump meeting with former President Bill Clinton more than a decade and a half ago. The official White House photos were taken in June 2000 during a visit Clinton paid to Trump Tower for a political fundraiser and in September of that year at the U.S. Open Tennis Championships in Flushing Meadows." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9b929816397bf0c8711c4caa5e082cc9d2e3c536f998cbe64b764be9abfa43f9

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I don't listen to him and never have. I may vote for myself." - Alaska Rep. Don Young on if he plans to vote for Donald Trump. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9b929816397bf0c8f17a809dcb85d4f356c6f4239ec2951bbda62533b54d48a0

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