Subject: POLITICO Playbook, presented by the Coalition for Fiscal and National Security: THE PATH: Clinton and Trump camps give exclusive state-by-state takes on how they’ll win – APPLE takes a stand on Trump -- B’DAY: Anne Gearan, Alex Isenstadt, Jeff Mason
From: "Mike Allen" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 19 Jun 2016 07:17:26 -0600

06/19/2016 09:14 AM EDT

By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; [email-masked]) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; [email-masked])

Good Sunday morning, and happy Father's Day to all the dads. To tell your kids: SUMMER officially begins with the solstice TOMORROW at 6:34 p.m. ET. Oh, and it's 29 days to Cleveland, 36 days to Philly, and 142 days to Election Day.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- @ChelseaClinton: "Marc and I are overwhelmed with gratitude and love as we celebrate the birth of our son, Aidan Clinton Mezvinsky." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cb65f6d81af051c47436f5ff4cec9e8df912c1ef946d359c2f

SNEAK PEEK: More evidence that an Innovation Party could rule 2020 - RAND study, "Politically Polarized, Ideologically ... Complicated: Mapping America's Ideological Terrain, Part 1": "Despite the increasingly polarized tone of American politics, we find that most Americans actually answer similarly on most questions of political belief. In fact, we estimate that 19.6 million American adults (8.2 percent) fall into a single grid square (the bright red square), and another 94.9 million (40 percent) fall into the eight squares around it. That is nearly half of America situated in just 14 percent of the social space grid. Americans are therefore more ideologically similar than different."

--Read the report (live soon) http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cb5b67c4a45afa282f20f5dddf14551f76b80b681904091cfe ... More on RAND's Presidential Election Panel Survey http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cb8622f3d877650664a13cbff2f779f3a646153a6f39f0b7df 

IF YOU READ ONLY 2 THINGS ... 

--"Clinton's path to victory: If the blue wall holds, she needs only one swing state to win the White House," by Shane Goldmacher and Annie Karni: "Rather than expand the 2012 map in any significant way, the Clinton campaign and its allies want to replicate it. They are obsessed with choking off Trump's narrower path, hoping to strike a decisive victory in Florida - multiple Clinton officials declared there is nearly no path for Trump without it - while aggressively defending the Democratic-leaning states in the industrial Midwest that Trump has talked most about flipping - most importantly, Pennsylvania." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cbd6d576ea1c187bcf24a52b921ca5468e6d34f6c15ab0e908

--"Trump's path to victory: He needs to best Romney with white men and turn a few reliably blue Rust Belt states red," by Eli Stokols: "Trump's team is aiming to capture America's Rust Belt - specifically, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin - where polls generally show him performing better than Mitt Romney did at this point in 2012. ... capture Florida and keep North Carolina - the 2012 red state of the lightest hue ... Trump ... is looking even farther afield ... talking up ... New York and California."

STUART STEVENS, Romney's 2012 campaign strategist: "It's a fantasy. Romney got 19 percent of nonwhites. Is Trump going to do better? ... It's a joke. It's just talking. It has no grounding in reality." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cbfcbfcbedb359a27321d1a1ac3b2264931f8e6e5c4aadc82f

GROUNDHOG DAY -- "AP FACT CHECK: Facts undercut Trump's post-Orlando arguments," by Alicia Caldwell and Calvin Woodward: "Trump says the United States admits Syrian refugees without checking their backgrounds and that Hillary Clinton wants to allow 'radical Islamic terrorists to pour into our country.' Neither is so ... He confuses immigrants with refugees and overlooks the fact some extremists are U.S. citizens. He speaks as if the U.S. border is a gate wide open. And his numbers are off." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cb7cdf981c455c619c843fc6e00d746d274eb14ac1630db41d

SIREN -- "Latinos Are Expected To Vote In Droves But Major Liberal Efforts To Register Them Aren't Off The Ground," by BuzzFeed's Adrian Carrasquillo: "[S]ome top Latino organizations say the important work that goes into voter registration is behind where it was in 2012. 'We are at about one-fifth of the funding to where we were at the same point in 2012,' said National Council of La Raza's (NCLR) Clarissa Mart&iacute;nez-de-Castro ... 'In my book, we are 120 days behind,' said Ben Monterroso, executive director of Mi Familia Vota ... Both organizations say they have been pledged money by donors but have not seen the checks. ... 

"The landscape for voter registrations is now big and complex. There are new groups. There are old groups. New progressive powerhouses say they have big plans to work with the existing ones but Latino groups argue funding doesn't move quickly enough through mostly white-led progressive coalitions, which are the gatekeepers to funding. ... Many of the biggest plans are in the hands of progressive players, new and old, who have deep pockets and mostly say they are about to get under way in earnest in the next month." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cb421c74d18b373bd6ae12dd0cfcb09f2a4e34218c39ef8a37 

THE MAP - WashPost A1, below fold, "Democrats see deep-red Ariz. as ripe for picking: Trump's rhetoric could fire up Latinos, loosen GOP's 20-year grip," by Phil Rucker in Phoenix (online: "The Trump effect: Could Arizona go blue for the first time in 20 years?"): "Here ... lies the Democrats' sleeping giant - an estimated 350,000 Latinos who are not registered to vote but who could mobilize ... Democratic and Republican strategists said private research shows the presidential race as a toss-up." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cb1b5a608325ca630686b60589b9604e434f289abb4ab4cbaf

--"Road to 270: Donald Trump stuck on GOP's California dream," by AP's Mike Blood in Westminster: "Here's Trump's challenge: unite Republicans while finding millions of new supporters in a state where Democrats hold every statewide office and both chambers of the Legislature. They also have a 3.1 million edge in voters, a number equal to the population of Iowa. ... The last significant push by a Republican to win California was in 2000, when Bush was backed by $15 million, then lost to ... Gore by 12 points." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cb171e01f371165b03562d5c9bcafa1c39122688825679fcdd

MAUREEN DOWD, "Trump in the Dumps": "Before his campaign became infused with racial grievance, victimhood and violence, Trump told me, 'I have fun with life and I understand life and I want to make life better for people.' If he had those better angels, he didn't listen to them. Seduced by the roar of the angry crowd, Trump kept dishing out racially offensive comments.... Trump has made his campaign all about his ability to win. So if he stops winning, what's his raison d'&ecirc;tre?" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cbbc19da7b854d8bbc47da63ddcef82c7df778331b01d23bb1

** A message from the Coalition for Fiscal and National Security: Strength at Home and Abroad: Mullen, Albright, Brzezinski, Gates, Kissinger, Panetta, Paulson and more unite to emphasize the fundamental link between America's long-term fiscal health and national security. Respected bipartisan group highlights fiscal sustainability and economic growth as foundation for continued global leadership in changing security environment. Read more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cb2695e35cf13536fbdc5ce6e8fd922e1ccad6638a8181e1e6 **

SPOTTED last night at the Georgetown home of Mark Paustenbach, DNC national press secretary and deputy comms director, ringing in the nice weather and having fun before everyone has to work really hard this summer: Nick Johnston, Bill McQuillen, Michael and Mary Kathryn Steel, Zeke Miller, Paul Kane, Derek Wallbank, Garance Franke-Ruta, Anu Rangappa, Tom Toles, Neil Irwin.

FIRST LOOK - Speaker Ryan's Father's Day video: "One of the best memories with Liza: I took her deer hunting, I got her a new rifle ... It was opening morning, 9 o'clock in the morning. I was explaining to her, whispering to her that we might not see anything. Then a 10-pointer [deer] walked right out and she got him at 50 yards. That took me 10 years of deer hunting until I got a 10 point buck." 2-min. video http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cb03002358c80972137d1c37259c2fe175dc46a0afc465d6aa

RON FOURNIER, author of "Love That Boy: What Two Presidents, Eight Road Trips, and My Son Taught Me About a Parent's Expectations," pens a letter to his daughter Holly, a reporter with the Detroit News (circle of life: her boss, publisher Jon Wolman, was the AP bureau chief who transferred Ron from Ark. to DC with Gov. Clinton) http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cb9bd6fa08f0d9a4231e9448016137f6ad6d81dfe27dec16b0 ... $17.77 on Amazon http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cbb0992b46facefee162f17579d5b3fce8ba176e7835d1c2d1 

--RON on Time.com, "Lessons My Autistic Son Taught Me About Fatherhood": "Don't confuse your own happiness with your child's. ... Manage your expectations. ... Appreciate your child through the eyes of others. ... Love your child for who he is, not who you want him to be." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cbf7a421dc8e826c48f3d7fa79503069f28eea774520888ced 

CLEVELANDWATCH -- "Apple won't aid GOP convention over Trump," by Tony Romm: "Apple has told Republican leaders it will not provide funding or other support for the party's 2016 presidential convention, as it's done in the past, citing Donald Trump's controversial comments about women, immigrants and minorities. Unlike Facebook, Google and Microsoft, which have all said they will provide some support to the GOP event in Cleveland next month, Apple decided against donating technology or cash to the effort." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cbbcc80225813c858d99b2e6fd30441d581c1e3691dc04000f 

EPIC TRUMP EMAIL -- "Would Donald Trump really drop out for $150 million?" by Ben Schreckinger: "'I bet if someone offered him $150 million to drop out, he would,' one former Trump adviser told POLITICO, unprompted ... Trump himself says it's a ridiculous proposition and that he's not a fan of the question. 'This story is a total fabrication from you and POLITICO, as usual,' the New York billionaire said in an email sent by his campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski. 'I will never leave the race, nobody has enough money to pay me to leave the race, and if they did, it would be totally illegal anyway. Did Obama and the Clintons get you to write this garbage?'" 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cb4d76c18fd47e15b481a0e6bdbec1fb32195f8834bd64d9a4 

MARGARET CARLSON on Bloomberg View, "Republican Leaders Cower as Trump Burns Down Their Party": "Trump ... would rather go it alone than acknowledge, by changing, that he might not have been perfect all along." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cb89dc7b4fa9c1b6cf525ea1d7b5b5bbe844a3938c82f3e01f 

MORE SPOTTINGS: A fit Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) running on the boardwalk in Rehoboth Beach, DE. ... E&C Chair Fred Upton and Rep. John Shimkus taking in the Friday Cubs/Pirates game from the Wrigley bleachers. ... 1992 Clinton campaign manager, DNC Chairman and current Hecate Energy exec. David Wilhelm outside Toro Toro on I Street Friday afternoon, deep in conversation with SmartPower President Brian Keane ... NBC's Andrew Rafferty and CBS' Adam Verdugo taking in the sounds of the Dave Matthews band last night at Jiffy Lube Live in Bristow, Va.

BONUS GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Daniel Lippman:

--"All LinkedIn with Nowhere to Go," by Ann Friedman in The Baffler: "LinkedIn merely digitizes the core, and frequently cruel, paradox of networking events and conferences. You show up at such gatherings because you want to know more important people in your line of work-but the only people mingling are those who, like you, don't seem to know anyone important. You just end up talking to the sad sacks you already know." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cbb588f47f021c3c0a04fd5b1db450afb3a1dbe74aba13aa6e (h/t Longform.org)

--"The Mind of the Islamic State: An ideology of savagery," by Robert Manne: "[T]here is nothing more dangerous in human affairs than beliefs capable of convincing their followers of the nobility of mass murder and other savage acts. ... The more I read the more convinced I became that the Islamic State's barbarous behaviour could not possibly be grasped without some real familiarity with the character and content of their ideology. As so often in history, it is ideas that kill." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cb9544dbb5a17e1cef59d04fc5b194e18debf6a5b7716499a9 

--"The Syrian refugees and us," by Leon Wieseltier in Brookings: "YouTube is not the answer: it is in fact the proof that all the documentation in the world may not move people to action. Even when the atrocities are available for viewing on the phones in our pockets, we may still do little or nothing." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cbe8a5d4e836d5a7d7e7150d5c5d74a499cd3ceb2edc343d4e (h/t TheBrowser.com)

--"Japanese American's World War II Commencement Speech Exemplifies Faith and Hope in America During Difficult Times," by Meredith Montgomery on Medium: "In 1943, Marion Konishi Takehara graduated as the valedictorian of Amache Senior High School ... an internment camp for Japanese Americans that were forced to relocate from their Pacific Coast homes following the attack on Pearl Harbor and Executive Order 9066. Last month, at 91 years old, she returned to Amache for the first time since she was a teenager. As a part of the annual Amache Pilgrimage, Marion gave her commencement speech for a second time." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cbf02b6510583fe582b5b592d4f44d9fcaeb5e23f574c67b60 

--"How 'Silicon Valley' Nails Silicon Valley," by Andrew Marantz in The New Yorker:

"'Silicon Valley,' now in its third season, is one of the funniest shows on television; it is also the first ambitious satire of any form to shed much light on the current socio-cultural moment in Northern California. The show derives its energy from two semi-contradictory attitudes: contempt for grandiose tech oligarchs and sympathy for the entrepreneurs struggling to unseat them." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cba60b7a70821f03508d89b577a093906b1ba82decbe67c573 

--"Life in the People's Republic of WeChat," by Dune Lawrence in Bloomberg Businessweek: "My full (and mostly successful) immersion in China's everything app." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cbbfa2f2ac17047d615c0e6ddac4124d667208a032d73ab553 

--"Schmear Campaign," by Ted Genoways in TNR: "Food producers caught misusing federal funds are quietly pressuring Congress to shield them from public scrutiny." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cbe55c4825d48b62574e74a5377905499022534e548217df2b 

-- "The Split" -- New Republic's July/August issue's cover story: "19 reasons the Democrats will remain divided-and what it means for the party's future." With contributions by Naomi Klein, David Simon, Rick Perlstein, Mark Green and Jill Filipovic: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cbf2f73d2a0d1e48fe67a2b07acc38afc311b4b4bd23a797b9 

OUT AND ABOUT - Friends toasted LA Times scribe Del Quentin Wilber last night on the release of his new book "A Good Month for Murder: The Inside Story of a Homicide Squad." Guests at Trusty's in SE enjoyed brownies, chips and salsa, Miller Lite, and cake pops. $19.41 on Amazon http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cb34725cb1e944965ea9428d0793f496cfc42a0cca8fc18ef2 

SPOTTED: Annie Linskey, Craig Gordon, Nedra Pickler, Jon Allen, Zach Coile, Matt McFarland, Christie Parsons, Margaret Talev, Mike Shepard, Nick Johnston, Gerry Shields, Eric Tucker, Christian Natiello, Kristen Hinman.

MICHAEL GERSON, Amb. Norm Eisen, Malika Bilal, Lisa Bonos, and Shibley Telhami hosted a book supper party last night at Juleanna Glover's house to celebrate Brookings scholar Shadi Hamid's new book "Islamic Exceptionalism: How the Struggle over Islam is Reshaping the World." $18.38 on Amazon http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cb279ece038cf1178e87238a78d86c95db4c98390c234da3ef 

SPOTTED: Kim Ghattas, Blake Hounshell, Zachary Pincus-Roth, John Hudson, Amberin Zaman, Matthew Rosenberg, Elena Postnikova, Evelyn Farkas, Denise Coutur, James Kirchick, Janet Donovan, Becca Glover Watkins.

MEGAN WHITTEMORE, comms. director for Sen. David Perdue, and Gary Nuzzi, VP of Adfero, celebrated their engagement with an Italian flare and champagne toast with their close family and friends at the home of Melike and Jeff Krilla on Saturday afternoon. 

OBAMA ALUMNI ... WEEKEND WEDDING -- Liz Utrup and Ian Adams were married on a Saturday evening at Homestead On The Roof in Chicago. Liz is national comms director for Educators 4 Excellence and Ian is the chief of staff at the Clean Energy Trust. The couple met on the President's 2008 campaign and both served in the Administration - Ian in the West Wing and then Energy; Liz at the Department of Education. The wedding was officiated by their friend and fellow Administration colleague, Dave Zikusoka. He had them promise to love and challenge each other even if Trump wins the Presidency. Twice. Pics http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cb196042c270cb8d1b55f00e56e36370b79628c65f51f50539 ... 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cbd002a675e2c455ffb83fe7d603869351e7a94379555ad285 

--SPOTTED from the Obama family: Patrick Whitty, Meg Whitty, Amanda Brown, Kyle Lierman, Tyler Lechtenberg, Darienne Page, Sandra Abrevaya, Dan Jones, Brian Wallach, Alex Kahan, Ben Milakofsky, Tim Granholm, and Shouvik Banerjee.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Alan Popovsky, principal and co-founder of PRG Hospitality (which owns the DC restaurants Lincoln, Teddy & the Bully Bar and Declaration) and Christina Chan Popovsky, national channel manager at iCore Networks, post on Facebook: "The best Father's Day Gift ever! Alec H. Popovsky hanging out with his old man while he waits to come home. Thanks to all the well wishers family and friends. I'm proud to be called dad by my 14 year old daughter and in the future by my son Alec." Pics http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cbf7552c2b4611a30a50aafc6698136c04995843aa42efb941 ... http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cbc674d9321805d64805b53816e099ee8a0a53af8bd25010b8 

BIRTHDAYS: Reuters' Jeff Mason, incoming president of the WHCA -- and of course his brother, Brian Mason -- hit the big 4-0, celebrating with family in the village in Germany where they lived just after they were born (h/t Roberta Rampton) ... David DiMartino, a Boston native and Bruins fan, now at Blue Engine Message and Media (h/t Erik Smith and Meridith Webster) ... former SEC chairwoman Mary Schapiro ... WaPo political correspondent Anne Gearan ... Marcus Brauchli, co-founder and managing partner of North Base Media, the pride of Boulder, and a WSJ and WaPo alum, is 55 (h/t Ben Chang) ... Politico's Alex Isenstadt, the pride of Piedmont, Calif. ... Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi
 is 71 ... Salman Rushdie is 69 ... David Lat, founder and managing editor of Above the Law, is 41 ... Lara Spencer of "Good Morning America" and the pride of Garden City, is 47 ... Politico's Tim Starks is 41 ... Slate contributor Seth Stevenson, author of "Grounded: A Down to Earth Journey Around the World" ... Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) is 37 ... Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.) is 62 ... Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.) is 59 ... Slate contributor Isaac Chotiner, a Houston Rockets fan and TNR alum ... 

... Louise Dufresne, associate producer at CBS' "Face the Nation" ... Tariq Smith, proud NC State Wolfpack alum and deputy organizing director for Clinton in NC (h/t Andrew Bates) ... Cragg Hines ... Mary Dalrymple of Eagle Hill Consulting and a Booz Allen alum ... Earl Whipple, VP of comms and public affairs at Templeton Foundation ... Mike Naple, comms. for Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.) ... Jenna Sakwa, associate producer at "CBS This Morning" ... Michelle Ringuette of American Federation of Teachers ... Liz Richards ... Samantha Finke ... Darren Bearson, SVP for state affairs and outreach for American Coalition of Clean Coal Electricity and RNC and Bush 43 WH alum ... Sean Kevelighan
 ... Hilary Richards, account supervisor at Ogilvy Public Relations and GPG alum ... Michael Akin, president of LINK Strategic Partners ... Jennifer Fedor, director of comms. at National Taxpayers Union ... Aimee Strudwick Gilroy, veteran of B-C '00 now manager of state and local gov't affairs at Raytheon ... Marilyn Miller (h/t Teresa Vilmain)... 

... Bush 43 WH alum Tom Hoare, senior director at SAP (h/t Atkiss, Deckard) ... Michael Robbins, co-founder and COO of The Moak Group and a Dingell alum ... "Baby" Ruth Elliott ... Sean Kevelighan, formerly OMB (Portman era) and now head of public affairs at Zurich Insurance ... Bonnie Goldstein ... Matt McKillop is 32 ... Leslea Byrd ... CRC Public Relations is 27 ... Liz Richards, consulting for McKenna Pihlaja  ... pop singer Tommy DeVito (The Four Seasons) is 88 ... Spanky McFarlane (Spanky and Our Gang) is 74 ... Actress Phylicia Rashad is 68 ... Paula Abdul is 54 ... Macklemore (Macklemore and Ryan Lewis) is 33 ... actor Atticus Shaffer is 18 (h/ts AP)

** A message from the Coalition for Fiscal and National Security: The Coalition for Fiscal and National Security is chaired by Admiral Mike Mullen, and includes Albright, Baker, Brzezinski, Chertoff, Gates, Hadley, Hagel, Hamilton, Hayden, Kissinger, Napolitano, Nunn, O'Neill, Panetta, Paulson, Ridge, Scowcroft, Shultz, Volcker, Warner, and Zoellick. This bipartisan group has released a new statement to draw our country's attention to the fact that America's global leadership requires a foundation of fiscal sustainability and economic growth, and to the urgent need to update and reprioritize our defense and foreign policy strategies to reflect a changing security environment. The Coalition
 is convened by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. Read more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=a3cc46eb851b47cb2695e35cf13536fbdc5ce6e8fd922e1ccad6638a8181e1e6 **

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