Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Outside groups stake out ground in next major GOP incumbent primary — Too many polls — New Senate ads as Evan Bayh hits the airwaves
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2016 08:02:56 -0600

By Elena Schneider | 07/14/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Theodoric Meyer, Kevin Robillard and Maggie Severns

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

CLASHING STYLES IN KS-01 PRIMARY - "Huelskamp's firebrand style problematic in 'Big First' primary," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "Kansas physician Roger Marshall, agriculture lobbying groups and a handful of their super PAC-funding friends are making an expensive wager in the state's sprawling 1st Congressional District - that Republican primary voters have a limit to how much of an anti-government challenge to the Washington status quo they will accept from their representative. GOP Rep. Tim Huelskamp, a three-term incumbent and outspoken tea party and House Freedom Caucus member, faces a difficult primary challenge from Marshall after he got kicked off the Agriculture Committee in
 2012 for his rabble-rousing ways. ... [A] long list of rebellious acts has endeared Huelskamp to hardline conservatives, but infuriated others, especially those in the farming community who see his boot from the Agriculture Committee, in particular, as an unpardonable sin." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=579febf2b297f2a175e6c0922adb18ce8de208d67665de5914bbcb30b14f8cf2

OFF AND RUNNING - Bayh announces, starts TV advertising in Indiana: Former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh announced his bid for Senate on Wednesday, saying he "can no longer sit on the sidelines" amid Washington dysfunction, and immediately made a one-week TV ad buy starting Thursday. In the ad, Bayh explains away his decision to leave Congress in 2010 - and why he wants back in now. "Six years ago, I decided to leave Congress, fed up with the gridlock and wanting to spend more time with my boys as they grow up," Bayh says to the camera. "Since then, the bitter partisanship and lack of progress in Washington has gotten even worse. Now I look at my grown sons, Hoosier families, and America, and
 can't sit on the sidelines." Watch the ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4cf667c49ac519008e6dfb25f075372c11394f8d8e2fc9c95f9fb4942742f7bf 

POLLAPALOOZA - "New Quinnipiac polls show GOP cruising in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania Senate races," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "A trio of Quinnipiac University polls has GOP Sens. Marco Rubio, Rob Portman and Pat Toomey all leading their Senate races comfortably. Rubio earns 50 percent of the vote against both of his potential Democratic challengers in November. Rep. Patrick Murphy, who has the backing of the DSCC and President Barack Obama, earns 37 percent of the vote against Rubio, while liberal stalwart Rep. Alan Grayson, who is under ethics investigation, gets 38 percent. In Ohio, Portman tops former Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland 47 percent to 40 percent. ... And in
 Pennsylvania, Toomey leads Democrat Katie McGinty 49 percent to 39 percent. These are some of the best Senate polling results Republicans have seen, though other recent polls, including Wednesday's NBC/Wall Street Journal surveys in Ohio and Pennsylvania, have found these races to be much closer." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=579febf2b297f2a19fc425458f8a022343ea2d9506dde75408b3c659d1aced9c

- DUELING POLLS - "A trio of new NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls conducted by Marist University show Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley with a healthy lead over Democrat Patty Judge in Iowa, while the Senate races in Ohio and Pennsylvania remain very tightly contested. Grassley leads Judge, a former lieutenant governor, 52 percent to 42 percent ... In Ohio, GOP Sen. Rob Portman and Democratic former Gov. Ted Strickland are tied with 44 percent of the vote each. ... In Pennsylvania, Democrat Katie McGinty took 47 percent to 44 percent for GOP Sen. Pat Toomey." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=579febf2b297f2a1e6013a20ce37db489a6c92d4288b3351f9c8f49d71bb5781

- Even more Senate polls: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=579febf2b297f2a1d8755479fb85d2133cbdc22fb82ef3b43a9494c6ff514e0d and http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4cf667c49ac51900ee1bddb207ebe0acd728c67c8696ea91eb5b35769f5ee9b8

- FIRST IN SCORE - In CA-17 ... Democrat Ro Khanna's campaign will release an internal poll that shows the former Obama administration official, who won the June primary, leads Democratic Rep. Mike Honda in a general election matchup, 42 percent to 36 percent. Twenty-two percent are still undecided in the race. Khanna leads among non-partisan, Republican and Democratic voters. Honda's unfavorables have ticked up nearly 10 points since September 2015, as the incumbent has struggled with an ethics investigation. Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates conducted the poll, interviewing 500 likely voters from June 26 to June 30. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
 Read the full memo here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4cf667c49ac51900691e8466f993c85cfc40b1f3e8fdf7bbda1c01bb8e162656 

Days until the 2016 election: 117. Days until the Republican National Convention: 4.

Thank for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about our recommendations for Clinton HQ: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

VEEPWATCH - "Donald Trump tweeted Wednesday night that his vice-presidential pick will be announced Friday morning. "I will be making the announcement of my Vice Presidential pick on Friday at 11am in Manhattan. Details to follow." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4cf667c49ac519005bb857a087158502ea450f08d2acf720ad0baf932997b0f6

MORE FUNDRAISING NUMBERS - The Republican Governors Association raised $17.3 million in the second quarter, the group announced today. The haul gives the RGA and its associated groups more than $44 million in cash on hand. The Democratic Governors Association hasn't released its second-quarter numbers yet.

- In CA-17 ... Democratic Rep. Mike Honda raised $471,000 in the second quarter, finishing with nearly $1 million cash on hand, per a statement from the campaign. 

- In VA-10 ... Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock raised $737,000 in the second quarter, ending with more than $2.2 million in cash on hand, per a statement from the campaign. Democrat LuAnn Bennett raised $507,000 and has $871,000 banked, per the Loudoun Times-Mirror.

- At the CLF ... "Congressional Leadership Fund, a leading super PAC backing Republicans in House races, raised $4.6 million in the second quarter, according to the group - most of which came from five individual donors. The haul gives Congressional Leadership Fund more than $6 million in cash on hand." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4cf667c49ac5190004df1cc1fa0f4129cad51a5f63e28ba6dca70db793674f12

NEW THIS MORNING - New Toomey ad contrasts McGinty on safety: Pennsylvania GOP Sen. Pat Toomey has long worked to polish his own credentials as a politician who can keep Pennsylvanians safe, and a new ad is focused on portraying Democrat Katie McGinty as untrustworthy on the same issues. The first half of the 30-second spot features a female narrator attacking McGinty for supporting the Iran deal, sanctuary cities and the closure of Guantanamo Bay. The midway points shifts to footage of Toomey talking with police officers and mothers and praises him on the same issues. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4cf667c49ac5190050568d40ec2dc3e6b2c42f83028e216885cee23877b86906

- MORE ADS, ADS, ADS - In Illinois ... Rep. Tammy Duckworth attacks GOP Sen. Mark Kirk while playing defense in a new, $600,000 ad buy that will run for two weeks in Illinois. The Kirk campaign has been aggressively attacking Duckworth over a lawsuit filed by former employees stemming from her time at the Illinois Department of Veterans Affairs. The lawsuit settled recently, but Kirk has released an ad, backed by a major six-figure buy, that hits Duckworth for putting "politics before veterans" and "bullying" whistleblowers who tried to clean up the department.

- In Duckworth's ad, veterans speak on Duckworth's behalf: Duckworth "knows the VA, and gets how important it is to us. Mark Kirk flat-out lied repeatedly about his own military service. Now he has the gall to take Tammy Duckworth on the V.A.?" Wally Kubicki Jr., a former Marine, says in the ad. Watch Duckworth's ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4cf667c49ac51900784e304a59ee36118e864caaf7705d693e994430c2b67f7f 

- In FL-23 ... Democrat Tim Canova, who's challenging Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, released three radio ads, including two attack ads against Wasserman-Schultz and one biographical ad. The ads will air in the South Florida market, per a statement from the campaign, but did not detail the ad buy timeline. Listen to "I Believe" here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4cf667c49ac519003095e7aad5d974435dd5c6ea7d4c3c79f393aa17c027cdb3 ... Listen to "Values" here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4cf667c49ac51900607e7972886c392d91c4c035ea825a4a529f84ece315261c ... Listen to "What Happened to America?" here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4cf667c49ac51900cf9b4818f18534ddbb264b3ff13cfa4a9bb2957cb670459b 

FINE TIME - FEC fines nonprofits with Koch network ties: "The FEC has fined three nonprofits formerly connected to Charles and David Koch's network, "a rare intervention by the commission into the world of outside spending," The New York Times' Nicholas Confessore reports. Each of the groups - Americans for Job Security, the 60 Plus Association, and the American Future Fund - ran political advertisements to support Republican House candidates during the 2010 election. Millions of dollars worth of those contributions were provided by an Arizona-based organization that, at the time, was a central hub of financing in the Koch network of donors and political groups. ... The F.E.C. found that
 Sean Noble, a political consultant then working with the Kochs, had closely directed the spending of the grants by the other organizations, even picking the races where ads were to be run. ... The groups consented to pay a total of more than $200,000 in fines to settle the investigation, but without conceding they had violated the laws." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4cf667c49ac51900b1ba211eafee4c24a060f2aa87c420db8348eb4fdfdbed4e

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "RNC races to stamp out anti-Trump rebellion," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt, Kyle Cheney and Shane Goldmacher in Cleveland: "The Republican National Committee and Donald Trump's campaign are scrambling to quash a small but dangerous insurgency inside the party aimed at wresting the nomination away from the New York billionaire on national television next week. It's a pivotal showdown where anti-Trump forces are the underdogs as they introduce a proposal that would free convention delegates to rebel against Trump and select a new nominee. And the RNC, desperate to avoid chaos during a convention that will be watched worldwide, is fighting back. About a dozen of RNC
 Chairman Reince Priebus' most loyal allies who hold seats on the 112-member Rules Committee are working to extinguish the anti-Trump efforts. The existence of the whip team, which includes prominent party figures like Henry Barbour, a party official from Mississippi who is the nephew of former RNC Chairman Haley Barbour, was confirmed by three sources who've been briefed on it." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4cf667c49ac519001b336cd3f73e73fe7c38d706f0b1eb9df18d8ad16089fdec 

- "Trump seeks $10 million in damages from former top campaign aide," by POLITICO's Ben Schreckinger: "Donald Trump is seeking damages from a former top political adviser, alleging breach of a nondisclosure agreement. Trump is pursuing private arbitration against Sam Nunberg, a former top aide who was fired from his presidential campaign last summer. The presumptive Republican nominee is seeking $10 million in damages, according to The Associated Press, which first reported the story. Nunberg, in turn, sued Trump in New York state on Tuesday, seeking to block the arbitration. Nunberg, according to a court filing cited by the AP, said that Trump was going after him "in a misguided attempt to
 cover up media coverage of an apparent affair" among a pair of campaign staffers." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4cf667c49ac5190008b316f72f0ebe6c29438de0b720db2ca7eedf43e106460f

- "Judge attacked by Trump weighs releasing key video in Trump University case," by The Washington Post's Roxana Popescu: "In his first public hearing on Trump University since being called a "hater of Donald Trump" by the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, U.S. District Judge Gonzalo Curiel on Wednesday heard arguments about whether the candidate's videotaped testimony in the case should be released to media organizations. Curiel did not mention the attacks by Trump, who during a rally here in May and in other remarks accused the Indiana-born judge of being biased because he is Hispanic and Trump has proposed building a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border. But Curiel pushed Trump's
 attorney to defend his position that the videos should remain confidential." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4cf667c49ac51900f6ab522179b15b5a5bb504123a29bf92f6ee14b630113c25 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Look, in many ways Donald Trump is like a pirate. He's outside the normal system, he gets things done, he's bold, he's actually like a figure out of a movie." - Newt Gingrich, on Fox News. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=4cf667c49ac51900fd6677ced15fbdeb737ff62d58a61a2612fdbfb8a90e82c0 

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