Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Democratic candidates' super PAC smoke signals — McCarthy getting involved in safe-seat primaries — New Senate polls in Florida, Colorado, North Carolina
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2016 08:02:03 -0600

By Elena Schneider | 07/15/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Theodoric Meyer and Kevin Robillard

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

READING IN BETWEEN THE LINES - "Democratic candidates writing instructions to super PACs on their websites," by Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns: "You don't have to look hard to find out how Democratic Senate candidates want their outside allies to spend money this year. The party's candidates in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and elsewhere are posting thinly veiled notes on their websites with hints, tips and flat-out instructions for supportive outside groups about how best they can help. ... Federal law prohibits candidates from explicitly coordinating with outside groups, but there's a loophole as wide as the internet. Public communications that outside groups pick up on are fair game, with
 few limitations, and campaigns' experiments with such missives are growing bolder over time."

- For example: "In Florida, Rep. Patrick Murphy's campaign has a clear message for supportive outside groups ... 'Florida Democrats, especially those from Tampa to Orlando, deserve to know that President [Barack] Obama endorsed Patrick Murphy,' Murphy's website reads. Murphy's own campaign is preparing to spend over a million dollars on TV ads ahead of Florida's Aug. 30 primary, but Orlando is missing from the early ad reservations, according to a source tracking Murphy's media buys. And Murphy's buy in Tampa is far below saturation levels." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5fc0abe38bb456148a9fe5d6c16b2715c338f373bf702c83fa9c41e512868b6e

YOU CAN'T SIT WITH US - "McCarthy takes sides in upcoming GOP primaries," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer and Elena Schneider: "House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy has started quietly taking sides in Republican primaries, helping to raise money for candidates in open, safely Republican districts who are more likely to align with House leadership if they make it to Congress. ... Taken together, the fundraisers" for two candidates in Georgia and North Florida, Drew Ferguson (GA-03) and Neal Dunn (FL-02), "indicate that McCarthy is working to prevent the restive members who ousted Speaker John Boehner from gaining more influence within the House GOP in the next Congress. Ferguson and Dunn
 are both facing candidates backed by the House Freedom Caucus and the Club for Growth - and they're not happy about McCarthy getting involved." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5fc0abe38bb4561412216eaf7ae23b8203ec11094bdf0e7aefc7b46db4681e00

- Ferguson outraises, outspends Crane ahead of GA-03 runoff: Former West Point Mayor Drew Ferguson outraised and outspent his Republican primary rival, state Sen. Mike Crane, ahead of the runoff, according to FEC reports. Ferguson raised about $503,000 between May 5 and July 6 and spent $370,000, including nearly $132,000 on direct mail. Crane raised about $266,000 and spent $200,000 in the same period. Crane, however, has been benefited from ads backing him run by the Club for Growth's super PAC. Ferguson's campaign also released a new TV ad and internal poll; read more here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5fc0abe38bb456147f3a27a7cecf064530d717059de6088a4ec3f193eddeae7b

NEW THIS MORNING - New NBC/Wall Street Journal polls on three Senate battleground races: Florida Republican Sen. Marco Rubio takes 47 percent to 44 percent for Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy in the closest of the three states. Incumbents look more comfortable in Colorado and North Carolina: Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet leads Republican Darryl Glenn 53 percent to 38 percent in Colorado, while North Carolina GOP Sen. Richard Burr leads Democrat Deborah Ross 48 percent to 41 percent. But in the governor's race, Democrat Roy Cooper tops GOP Gov. Pat McCrory, 49 percent to 45 percent. "The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls were conducted July 5-11 of 794 registered voters in Colorado (which has a margin of
 error of plus-minus 3.5 percentage points), 871 registered voters in Florida (plus-minus 3.3 percentage points), and 907 registered voters in North Carolina (plus-minus 3.3 percentage points)" per the polling memo. 

- Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in all of the swing states polled. In Colorado, Clinton leads Trump by eight points, 43 percent to 35 percent; a combined 21 percent say neither, other or are undecided. In Florida, Clinton is up seven points, 44 percent to 37 percent. (Yesterday's Quinnipiac poll had the race in Florida much closer - and gave Trump a 3-point lead.) In North Carolina, Clinton leads by six points, 44 percent to 38 percent. In Virginia, Clinton's advantage is nine points, 44 percent to 35 percent.

Days until the 2016 election: 116. Days until the Republican National Convention: 3.

Thank for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about Hillary Potter fanfiction: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

EVENT ALERT: Join Nancy Scola and POLITICO on Tuesday, July 19th at the RNC for Digital Campaigns: How can Republicans win with tech? 12pm, POLITICO Hub (925 Euclid Ave.), #DigitalCampaigns. To register and learn more about RNC and DNC events click here. This event is sponsored by Microsoft.

VEEPSTAKES - "Trump postpones VP announcement, citing 'horrible attack' in Nice, France," by POLITICO's Patrick Reis: "The sudden delay of the unveiling his running mate, announced via Twitter on Thursday evening, added a dramatic new element of uncertainty to an unusually public selection process that is said to have ended with the choice of Indiana Gov. Mike Pence. Even as an ABC camera crew filmed Pence walking into a hotel in Manhattan, Trump immediately followed up his tweet by telling Fox News host Greta van Susteren that he had yet to make a 'final, final decision.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5fc0abe38bb456144ac638150d51aa436432ff51c28e8c89fcac608caabd8bea

- HOOSIER DRAMA - GOP Rep. Susan Brooks planning to enter Indiana governor contest: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5fc0abe38bb456148df4f4d21f5ca484bda49b467c4898febe3fa29a2fb0b21b 

PRIMARY WATCH - An independent automated poll in GOP Rep. Tim Huelskamp's district found the incumbent trailing primary challenger Roger Marshall, 49 percent to 42 percent. The new survey, which was conducted by Fritz Wenzel of Clout Research, also showed 9 percent of voters remain undecided. Keep an eye out for the primary coming up Aug. 2, and read the full polling memo here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5fc0abe38bb456141ebb14c13b0de6d54be335caf14b650170cca5813e2607fd

- AND GENERAL ELECTION WATCH - An internal poll released by Republican Justin Fareed's campaign shows Fareed leading by two points over Democrat Salud Carbajal, 46 percent to 44 percent in CA-24. 10 percent of voters are still undecided. The Tarrance Group surveyed 350 voters from July 10 to July 12, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. Read the full polling memo here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5fc0abe38bb45614af4af40e833fc0acd5df7fddc91d7e17bcba5f3212208a7c 

MORE FUNDRAISING NUMBERS - NEW THIS MORNING - Murkowski raises $730,000 in second quarter: GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski raised about $730,000 in the second quarter, according to her campaign, giving her more than $3 million in cash on hand for her reelection. She's facing Margaret Stock, an independent, with no major Democratic opponent.

- In Iowa ... Sen. Chuck Grassley raised $1.2 million in the second quarter for his race against Democrat Patty Judge. Grassley now has $5.9 million on hand. 

- In Ohio ... Former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland's Senate campaign raised more than $2 million during the second quarter. Strickland ended the quarter with "roughly $4 million cash on hand," his campaign announced. More here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5fc0abe38bb45614ff0abe65c38126689212465dc210ec52f8bad0082336637f

- IN BATTLEGROUND HOUSE RACES - In NH-01 ... "Granite Voices PAC, a single-candidate super PAC backing GOP Rep. Frank Guinta's primary challenger, raised about $86,000 in its first quarter of existence, according to its FEC report. ...Granite Voices had nearly $70,000 on hand to end the second quarter." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5fc0abe38bb4561457a1fbe36153748a703f0cab84131a02029a0b19412aa3bd

- In CA-21 ... GOP Rep. David Valadao raised $394,000 in the second quarter, finishing with $1.3 million in cash on hand, per a statement from the campaign. - In ME-02 ... Democrat Emily Cain raised $542,000 in the second quarter, ending with more than $1.1 million in cash on hand, per a statement from the campaign. - In CO-03 ... Democrat Gail Schwartz raised $623,000 in the second quarter, finishing with $549,000 in cash on hand, per a statement from the campaign.

COURT DOCS - "Sheriff Scott Jones accused of unwelcome sexual advances toward deputy," by The Sacramento Bee's Christopher Cadelago: "Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones was accused of making unwanted sexual advances toward a subordinate, activity he denied in a sworn statement, according to newly uncovered court documents from a lawsuit against the Sheriff's Department claiming retaliation. Tosca Olives, at the time a 26-year-old sheriff's deputy, said Jones, then a sergeant in legal affairs, was acting as her unofficial supervisor in the law library of the Main Jail in 2003. She said the contact started with Jones rubbing her shoulders while she took work-related phone calls. Over two
 years, she said in a deposition, the touching intensified to him reaching under her shirt. ...Jones said he never had romantic or sexual interest in Olives and, except once, 'never had any physical contact with her of an intimate nature.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5fc0abe38bb456145ada6e5eaa0d014b3aecedd8d2cbe60790f1b27cf687c8a9 

- Meanwhile ... "If Rep. Ami Bera is to win a third term this fall, he will have to do it without an endorsement from the influential California Labor Federation, which has clashed with the Elk Grove Democrat over trade policy in recent months," the Bee also reported. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5fc0abe38bb456148d1962c0693b552ea646556ca1fd4e502f5cba1e4de3fc95

TO YOUR HEALTH - "GOP tries health-themed campaign message - and it's not just repeal and replace," by POLITICO's Nancy Cook and Brett Norman: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5fc0abe38bb4561459d8608dc317a1faefc42a9665c978c32b2ed8e4f1127dda

MOVIE TRAILER - Young releases digital ad: Indiana Republican Todd Young's campaign pokes fun at Evan Bayh's political decisions in a new digital ad, a fake trailer for a movie titled "Evan Bayh: Part Deux" that offers early hints into Young's future lines of attack on Bayh in the Indiana Senate race. A deep-voiced narrator summarizes Bayh's change of heart since he left the Senate in 2010: "Seduced by the lure of money and power, he became the very thing that he despised most - a lobbyist." Watch here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5fc0abe38bb4561413f1a0e6da5649ea2024285f5b4aadea5bf15695d8c105c8 

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Clinton team shrugs off sinking poll numbers," by POLITICO's Annie Karni: "Democrats are hoping party conventions and vice presidential picks will reset the narrative of the 2016 race, after a concerning set of new polls showed Hillary Clinton running even nationally with Donald Trump and the race tightening in key battleground states. A New York Times/CBS poll released Thursday morning showed Clinton and Trump in a dead heat nationally, capturing 40 percent of the vote each, with 67 percent of registered voters saying Clinton is neither honest nor trustworthy. More worrisome for the former secretary of state, Clinton has dipped 10 percentage points in the same
 survey since April, when she led Trump 50 percent to 40 percent. ...For Democrats already bracing for Trump to take a solid lead after an expected convention bump next week, the fear is that now that bump will come on top of his running even with Clinton." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5fc0abe38bb456145e654827b8ef0cf19dca3dd2cb2f1df5a24c7962b70d6798 

- "GOP Cleveland organizers beg Adelson for $6 million," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt and Shane Goldmacher in Cleveland: "Millions of dollars short and running out of time, organizers of the Republican National Convention have written an urgent request for $6 million to Las Vegas billionaire couple Sheldon and Miriam Adelson to cover the bills for next week's festivities. In a letter addressed to the Adelsons, obtained by POLITICO, the Cleveland 2016 Host Committee revealed the names of more than two dozen prominent corporations and individuals who have reneged on a collective $8.1 million in pledged donations. The letter represents the most public acknowledgment to date that Donald Trump
 has directly cost convention organizers millions of fundraising dollars." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5fc0abe38bb456143144316cc6562a075fb8cebc6130d12e208682788d7bbd6b 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I predict after this whole thing is over, what will be remembered about the failed candidacy of Donald Trump is 'You're fired" - and maybe one other phrase: Trump U, OK?" - Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine during the Clinton rally, his unofficial veep audition, POLITICO reported. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5fc0abe38bb45614bbe146cc691ddf344d60cdbba9ff8a2e5c64737045533851 

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