Subject: EconVue Weekly Spotlight July 30, 2016
From: "Lyric Hughes Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2016 14:23:01 -0700 (PDT)

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EconVue Weekly Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

July has seen a tsunami of news events. It is hard to take it all in, 
even for an economic news devotee . Overall, the key theme is slow 
growth. US GDP yesterday was only half what had been expected, and the 
Bank of Japan used just one of its three tools to stimulate its economy. 
The long term effects of both Turkey's putsch and Brexit have not been 
fully taken on board by markets. Add to this the cloud of uncertainty 
over US elections, increasing violence and terrorism in Europe, sticky 
depressed commodity prices, a more bellicose China after the UNCLOS 
ruling, and a forecast for a sustained global recovery is very hard to 
support. One book that has helped to clear the fog is Robert Gordon's 
brilliant new work, The Rise and Fall of American Growth

https://www.amazon.com/Rise-Fall-American-Growth-Princeton/dp/0691147728

. Gordon, a professor at Northwestern and a long-standing member of our 
Chicago Financial Forum, has given a historical perspective on economic 
stagnation that is incredibly well researched, and incredibly well 
argued. His book focuses on the reasons for America's singular 
productivity growth between 1920 and 1970, and then "places 
techno-optimism in perspective by arguing that the main benefits of 
digitization for productivity growth have already occurred during the 
temporary productivity growth revival of 1996-2004." The italics are 
mine, and Gordon's conclusion calls out "a group of 
headwinds—inequality, education, demography, and fiscal—that are in the 
process of reducing growth in median real disposable income well below 
the growth rate of productivity." A sobering conclusion. Stories in our 
Spotlight This Week: Bank of Japan 1. BOJ disappoints

https://twitter.com/SoberLook/status/758871061609844736

Twitter @SoberLook 7/28/16 Smaller than expected increase in Bank of 
Japan purchases of ETF's. Markets and the yen are not reacting 
positively. 2. A Weaker Yen is Coming: Who Are the Winners and Losers?

http://thediplomat.com/2016/07/a-weaker-yen-is-coming-who-are-the-winners-and-losers/

Anthony Fensom 7/24/16 The Diplomat 3. Emperor Will Speak to the Public 
on Live TV in August

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/07/29/national/emperor-will-speak-public-live-tv-august/#.V5vkIWVouu5

Japan Times 7/29/16 Most probably, Emperor Akihito's abdication speech, 
on August 8th. End of an era. More Stories in our Spotlight This Week 4. 
Grade Hillary's and Donald's Tax Plans

https://twitter.com/BrookingsEcon/status/759403226638618628

Brookings Econ 7/30/16 Average of expert opinions gives Clinton's tax 
proposals a D+ and Trump a C- in terms of impact on economic growth. For 
more analysis: Full List of Hillary's Planned Tax Hikes

http://www.atr.org/full-list-hillary-s-planned-tax-hikes

John Kartch, Alexander Hendrie 7/21/16 AFTR Donald Trump Says He Had the 
Biggest Tax Cuts of Any 2016 Candidate

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/jul/21/donald-trump/donald-trump-says-he-had-biggest-tax-cuts-any-2016/

Louis Jacobson 7/21/16 Politifact Basically, Trump would decrease taxes 
and increase the deficit, if the tax increase is not stimulative of the 
economy as a whole. Clinton would increase taxes on high income earners, 
and decrease the deficit. It is possible that low wage earners would 
lose income if business owners offset their higher taxes by decreasing 
wages. No perfect solution here. 5. What Will the 2016 Election Mean for 
Iran?&nbsp;

https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/blog/global-insight/what-will-2016-election-mean-iran?utm_source=Informz&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Council&_zs=HWq6V1&_zl=MqTE3

CFR 7/28/16 A key foreign policy issue for the next US President. 6. How 
Low Can Rates Go?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07krycg

Martin Wolf 7/21/16 BBC Radio Podcast How central banks function in a 
low-demand world. Wolf interviews a number of influential policymakers 
including Bank of Japan's Haruhiko Kuroda. 7. Asian Defaults are Just 
Getting Started

http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-07-24/asian-corporate-defaults-are-just-getting-started

Christopher Langner 7/24/16 Bloomberg Is a wave of non-financial Asian 
corporate bond defaults in the offing? 8. The End of Australia's 
Broadband Network?

https://techpolicyinstitute.org/policy_paper/the-end-of-australias-national-broadband-network/

Ashley Benjamin 7/21/16 Tech Policy Institute Australia's national 
broadband network has stalled, with important implications for the 
country's future. Australia suffered two blows to its soft power this 
week, the scandal over its juvenile detention units, and the withdrawal 
of support by the current prime minister for the past prime minister's 
bid for Secretary-General of the UN. 9. These Countries Have Suffered 
the Biggest Fall in Wages Since the Financial Crisis

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/07/these-countries-have-suffered-the-biggest-fall-in-wages-since-the-financial-crisis?utm_content=buffer3267d&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Keith Breene 7/27/16 World Economic Forum This certainly helps to 
explain Brexit. Wages in the UK have fallen about 10% since 2007, the 
second largest dip in the EU next to Greece. 10. Brexit: London Can 
Safeguard Its Global City Status

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0ba694ba-4a9f-11e6-8d68-72e9211e86ab.html?siteedition=intl#axzz4FjQxA7gb

Saskia Sassen 7/24/16 FT Given London's uncertain status following the 
Brexit vote, the predictions about the effect on Hong Kong's financial 
market when China was about to take over sovereignty from the British in 
1997 are useful. Beijing aimed to make Shanghai China's main financial 
centre. The idea was that important Hong Kong markets would migrate to 
the mainland. That did not happen. Hong Kong is still China's most 
international and strongest market. Shanghai, meanwhile, did expand as a 
financial centre but one geared more towards domestic investors. 11. 
Erdogan's Fans Ransack a Bookshop, Their Biggest Enemy.

https://twitter.com/MahirZeynalov/status/756410873955090432/video/1?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=fb&utm_campaign=lyrichues&utm_content=757236514615074816

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/countering-chinas-third-sea-force-unmask-maritime-militia-16860

Mahir Zeynalov 7/22/16 Twitter @MahirZeynalov Zeynalov's Twitter thread 
documents the steady procession of perp walks by esteemed Turkish 
journalists, editors, and publishers. It illustrates just how extensive 
Erdogan's crackdown is, and how long it will be before civil society is 
restored. 12. 'Women Should Not Laugh in Public' Says Turkey's Deputy 
Prime Minister in Morality Speech

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/women-should-not-laugh-in-public-says-turkeys-deputy-prime-minister-in-morality-speech-9635526.html

Lizzie Dearden 7/29/14 Independent UK Seriously. EconVue Research and 
Insights Data Round-Up: 16Q2 GDP Disappoints, But Inventory-Sales Mix 
Bodes Well

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/data-round-16q2-gdp-disappoints-inventory-sales-mix-bodes-well

Michael Lewis 07/29/16 Real growth disappointed in 16Q2. Moreover, with 
downward revisions in the annual benchmark, the past three quarters look 
pathetic, averaging +1% growth. This is bad news, but old news. Chances 
for a September Rate Hike Now Higher (Far from Sure Thing)

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/chances-september-rate-hike-now-higher-far-sure-thing

Michael Lewis 07/28/16 Today's meeting swept away anxiety about global 
disruptions and reset the FOMC's clock to April. Today's statement was 
upbeat, noting that 'near-term risks to the economic outlook have 
diminished.' China: Learning to do Business in Latin America

https://econvue.com/pulse/china-learning-do-business-latin-america

R. Evan Ellis 07/29/16 EconVue contributor Evan Ellis is an expert in 
China's investments in Latin America. For perspective on China in 
Africa, Deborah Brautigam's blog China Africa the Real Story

http://www.chinaafricarealstory.com/

is without equal. Elizabeth Economy has an excellent new piece on how 
China's strategy in Europe is evolving post-Brexit: China's Offensive in 
Europe

http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2016/07/07/podcast-chinas-offensive-in-europe/?cid=nlc-asia-eyes_on_asia-july_2016-link41-20160719&sp_mid=51934787&sp_rid=bHlyaWNAZWNvbnZ1ZS5jb20S1

. Upcoming in August: Discussion Panel: The BOJ Decision

https://econvue.com/panels/boj-decision

Nicholas Benes, Richard Katz, Robert Madsen, Lyric Hughes Hale August 
2016 The BOJ's moderate decision on increased purchases of ETFs 
disappointed. We invite our experts to provide their insights on this 
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With all best wishes,

Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

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