Subject: A Tale of Two Conventions
From: "Liz.Schrayer" <[email-masked]>
To: "Liz.Schrayer" <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2016 18:09:51 +0000

Dear Board of Directors,

With both conventions in the rear view mirror, I wanted to share a few private thoughts on the past two weeks as the country heads into the final 100 days of the election. Thank you to all that joined us for one of the conventions, and particularly those that traveled to both.

Having attended party conventions for years, rarely have I experienced such a stark contrast. Of course there were always substantive and cultural differences between the varying conventions, but these past two weeks were on an entirely different level.

  *   It truly felt like two Americas - one so white, one full of color. One dark and angry, one of joy and hope. I felt it in the halls, and I felt it on the streets.

  *   In Philly, the streets and restaurants were bustling with people happily wearing party and candidate swag, a significant contrast with Cleveland, where most Members of Congress chose not to attend. There was a limited "donor class" filling the skyboxes and events, compared to the "battle for credentials" in Philadelphia.

  *   The security in Cleveland was significantly greater with police from as far away as Austin, TX in bike teams of 20-deep moving throughout the city. In Philly, it was your typical airport-like "TSA-style" security.

  *   Inside the convention hall, the energy was dramatically different with the primary driver of enthusiasm at the GOP being anti-Hillary rhetoric, while the largest applause lines at the DNC came from a range of issues - such as gun safety and women and LGBT rights.

  *   The professional production in Philadelphia has been well reported, but I was also struck by the extraordinary message discipline by the Democrats, even among high-profile (big ego) stars and politicians. They felt like they were on a mission to deliver a winning program - and they did.

On foreign policy, there was clearly a shift and party realignment, at least for this election. As I reported in the GLOBAL GAB, one political strategist said, "If you were a visitor from Mars who came here only once every 12 years, you would have said, 'Gee, this must be the Republican convention. Look at all those flags, look at the generals.'" The Democrats worked to portray a much more muscular party than ever before, obviously in hopes of contrasting against Trump and his statements.

But I do think there is more for us to take away as we head into the fall and move into next year:

  *   Bernie Voters. They held "Stop TPP" signs all four nights, and heckled Secretary Leon Panetta and General John Allen (yes, he is one of our National Security Advisory Council members) with chants of "No More War." While the DNC's whip operation outmatched the noise with booming "U-S-A" chants during their speeches, the influence of the far left on global engagement was not lost on me.

General Allen spoke about the importance of using "all the tools" to avoid wars, yet some delegates wouldn't even listen. Journalists interviewed some about TPP and many of them didn't even know what it was, but just that it had to be stopped.

     *   Imagine a much more successful "Occupy Wall Street" movement that includes an isolationist foreign policy plank? Dangerous.

     *   Imagine a popular 2020 candidate from the left that decides he or she will speak to the fears of globalization? Very concerning.

  *   A Foreign Policy Shaken GOP. On the Republican side, the battle for the heart and soul of the party on foreign policy is in full swing. While it started with Rand Paul's isolationism - threatening the neo-cons - Donald Trump's positions are challenging the establishment's traditions dating back to Eisenhower on a whole new level. The debate is no longer one of isolationist vs internationalist. Instead, Trump's brand of "America First" has tapped into a deeper, and perhaps longer-lasting, sense that Americans truly lose by being engaged in the world. This is why his outrageous NATO and Russia statements may not hurt him with his base.

     *   Imagine an effective candidate in 2020 from the right - without Trump's baggage nor outrageous foreign policy statements - but with with the same foreign policy sentiments? A real threat.

So our challenges are not merely from the left or the right - or just one party or the other. But they are from a segment of Americans - likely less educated - who are feeling that globalization has hurt them economically. We will need new and different strategies to tackle this growing populism that largely won't get better until people feel like our economy improves.

As the fall begins to take shape, we will have our work cut out for us:

  *   Congressional Races. To date, we've engaged more than 100 candidates for the House and Senate - partnering with our state leaders. More to come.

  *   Presidential & Transition Outreach. We will continue to engage both campaigns, with new openings on the Trump team. We have already been in touch with both transition teams and hope to have meetings soon.

  *   Fall Events. Secretary Bob Gates will be our keynote at our Ohio event on September 28 and we are working to finalize our event in Florida. More details coming.

  *   Telling Our Story. We must continue to tell our story, particularly as concerns grow on the Zika virus, reminding the country that infectious diseases know no borders.

  *   September Board Meeting. Watch for details, but we will once again have a strong lineup of guest speakers and internal strategy meetings. I hope you can join us.

I'm off to Croatia for a long overdue family vacation and I hope many of you are getting some rest. Our work continues with dozens of in-district and candidate meetings - events with Representatives Tom Emmer (R-MN) and Mike Coffman (R-CO) this week and next.

Have a great August and enjoy the Olympics - a competition with seemingly fewer consequences for our issue. Go Team USA!

Best,
Liz
Liz Schrayer, USGL