Subject: POLITICO Huddle: WASSERMAN SCHULTZ HANGING ON IN FLORIDA – Becerra’s bold prediction (and a reality check to boot) – POLL TIME: PORTMAN UP, RUBIO CLOSE, TOOMEY TRAILING – Democratic PAC targets Toomey on gun control – FOLEY SHOWS UP AT TRUMP RALLY
From: "POLITICO Huddle" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2016 05:58:47 -0600

08/11/2016 07:56 AM EDT

By Heather Caygle ([email-masked] or @heatherscope)

With assistance from Burgess Everett 

SIGNED, SEALED, DELIVERED-Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz has had the summer from hell, culminating in her resignation from the DNC on the eve of the Democratic convention. Her months-long public spat with Sen. Bernie Sanders and the embarrassing fallout from the DNC email leak has given her primary opponent, law professor Tim Canova, fresh ammo headed into the Aug. 30 primary. But even for Canova, a Sanders-backed candidate who has built up a massive war chest ($2.3 million), hammering home her recent missteps is likely not enough to knock off Wasserman Schultz, a long-time fixture in South Florida politics. 

'It's her district': "As much as I would like to say otherwise, I think his chances are pretty slim," said Ben Pollara, a Democratic political consultant and former supporter turned critic of Wasserman Schultz. "[I]t doesn't matter who the challenger is or what the issues are, barring something like an indictment, it's her district." 

Holding on: The reasons for Wasserman Schultz's stronghold in the district are many-this is her first congressional primary ever-but the key things to know are: local voters have been backing her for 25 years going back to when she was a state lawmaker; the DNC scandal doesn't play in the district as it does nationally; and she's got the support of the Democratic trinity (President Obama, Vice President Biden and Hillary Clinton) in an area that several operatives described as "Clinton country" for its longtime backing of the Democratic power couple, going back to Bill Clinton's first presidential race. 

All you need to know: "If there actually is a district in Florida that wouldn't really care if the DNC rigged [the Democratic presidential primary], it would be there," said Florida Democratic strategist (an Obama campaign alum) Steve Schale. 

What's next: Former Rep. Gabby Giffords and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi will make appearances with Wasserman Schultz over the next two days. And Wasserman Schultz has agreed to debate Canova this Sunday on a local politics show but he's criticized the venue choice, saying 15 minutes of back and forth is not a legitimate debate. My story, new this morning: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dc84774539cdef577aa364226cb7c94ed103b0d0e229f9e682688901ce79aa4d 

BECERRA'S BOLD PREDICTION- House Democratic Caucus Chairman Xavier Becerra is making a bold prediction. He thinks the disenchantment among voters for Donald Trump is so high, it's going to send a wave of Democrats into Congress, enough to take back the House to be exact. "'If this is a change election, the sky's the limit,' Mr. Becerra said in an interview. 'We can get to our 30 for sure,'" reports the Wall Street Journal's Michelle Hackman. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dc84774539cdef57c41b18c2ad3b43d961b3cdc326d820b378f04cc1a1935b6d 

Reality check: I caught up with David Wasserman, House editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, who told me that's just not likely. Democrats "chances are not good of taking back the House. Number one, they've had a geography problem for a long time. ...Republicans are simply more efficiently distributed on the map," he told Huddle. 

"The second problem is really a timing problem. By the time it was clear Donald Trump would win the nomination, the filing deadlines had passed in 81 percent of congressional districts. ...That has really limited their ability to capitalize on any anti-Trump wave or landslide," Wasserman added. 

TOOMEY TARGETED ON GUN CONTROL- Senate Majority PAC is throwing $1 million into a new ad campaign hitting Sen. Pat Toomey on gun control. Seung Min Kim: The new TV ad buy is "looking to blunt a positive ad campaign financed by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg highlighting the Republican's work to expand background checks for firearms sales." 

"The super PAC that works to elect Democrats to the Senate is seizing on little-noticed comments from Toomey in mid-July when the senator - who drafted bipartisan legislation broadening background checks in 2013 in defiance of the National Rifle Association - told a crowd at a campaign stop: 'I have a perfect track record with the NRA.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dc84774539cdef5780afe0d1a6a2a815f61c7a7521185e2152cc7de9c7668f36 

TRIUMPHING OVER THURSDAY, August 11. You're reading POLITICO's Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill. We know it's been a very, very weird year so far but the Trump Tower suction cup guy might take the cake. GIF of the year right here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dc84774539cdef57c2185f6561477fdd7729d961ddba1eec29d176ad22ecba3d 

TODAY IN CONGRESS - Capitol Hill gets moving again in 26 days. 

AROUND THE HILL- House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, Democratic Caucus Chairman Xavier Becerra, Democratic Policy Chairman Steve Israel and Reps. Rosa DeLauro, Donna Edwards and Andr&eacute; Carson will hold a 9 a.m. press conference in HVC Studio A calling on GOP leaders to cancel recess. At 12:30 p.m. Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid will hold a press call on the Supreme Court vacancy. 

GATHER ROUND, IT'S POLL TIME Y'ALL- Sen. Marco Rubio is only up three points over Democratic opponent Patrick Murphy (48 percent to 45 percent) in the Florida Senate race, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll out this morning. Rubio has a more comfortable lead over Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson, but not much, beating him 49 percent to 43 percent. 

GOP Sen. Rob Portman is beating Ted Strickland 49 percent to 40 percent and in Pennsylvania Democrat Katie McGinty has a 3-point lead over GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, 47 percent to 44 percent. Both the Rubio-Murphy and McGinty-Toomey results fall within the poll's margin of error and are "too close to call" Quinnipiac says. The full rundown: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dc84774539cdef57996d23354319215e6dc54a6762ac3ae2fe3c6b1c310dfa87 

FOLKS IN GLASS HOUSES... "Two days after a terrorist's father was spotted behind Hillary Clinton at a Florida speech, Donald Trump appeared in the Sunshine State and criticized her for the bad optics. But there was one big irony that undermined Trump's message: Disgraced former U.S. Rep. Mark Foley - accused in 2006 of making sexual advances toward congressional pages - was sitting behind Trump the entire time Wednesday in Sunrise, near Fort Lauderdale," reports our in-house Florida expert Marc Caputo. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dc84774539cdef5774a198d3a2a8a0513c85c050892429d6bbb32e78bf1078d5 

DEMOCRATIC HACK MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THOUGHT- Turns out the email hack that led to Wasserman Schultz's DNC resignation likely goes well beyond the DNC and the DCCC. "A Russian cyberattack that targeted Democratic politicians was bigger than it first appeared and breached the private email accounts of more than 100 party officials and groups, officials with knowledge of the case said Wednesday," reports the New York Times' Eric Lichtblau and Eric Schmitt. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dc84774539cdef572627bd4fb26a006be95c12378abfc9d3eaf4a95630c5c203 

SCOTT FOR SENATE? Rep. Bobby Scott isn't shutting the door on a potential appointment to Tim Kaine's Senate seat should the Virginia senator become vice president. But he's not exactly leaning into it, either, as former Gov. Douglas Wilder urges Gov. Terry McAuliffe to consider Scott for Kaine's seat should it become vacant. "The speculation is a little premature, the first order of business is to elect Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine so that there is something to speculate about," he said in an interview on Wednesday.

FROM FRIENDS TO FOES- Longtime friends Annette Taddeo and former Rep. Joe Garcia are turning into foes as they battle each other for the Democratic spot on the ballot in Florida's 26th District and the chance to take on vulnerable GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo in November. "Once the primary is over, Garcia insisted to the editorial board, he plans to ask Taddeo for her endorsement if he wins. 'I assume that we'll still be friends after this campaign,' he said. [Taddeo] remained silent," reports the Miami Herald's Patricia Mazzei.

Why this race matters: "How Garcia and Taddeo went from chummy allies to tense rivals is a story about the extraordinary, often scandal-plagued politics of Florida's 26th congressional district, a coveted prize among national Republicans and Democrats wrestling for control of the U.S. House of Representatives." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dc84774539cdef57072cb6026265df24948d577ab04346470da2b9598ee394c7 

LIZ CHENEY IS BACK (AND ON TRACK TO WIN)- Liz Cheney, the former vice president's daughter, angered some folks when she challenged Sen. Mike Enzi in a primary contest a few years ago before dropping out after six months. But now she's back and in a "large part because of her name recognition, Cheney is expected to win next Tuesday's eight-way primary for the at-large seat. Current GOP Rep. Cynthia Lummis is retiring at the end of the term," writes Roll Call's Simone Path&eacute;. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dc84774539cdef57210659ef4e117c36e90a4e64ba350d5a9cb879d7ee22e6cc 

'YOU AND I' (Well except you, Tim Canova): Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz is out with her first TV ad of the campaign and although it doesn't mention her primary opponent Tim Canova by name, it's clear who she's targeting. "People who don't even live in Florida, including Republicans, are spending outrageous amounts of money on personal attacks directed at me. And the attacks are just garbage," she says to the camera. (Refresher: She dinged Canova earlier this year for largely funding his campaign using donations outside of Florida). Watch the ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=dc84774539cdef57c907a872b512d136720e7e93e3bd8ed263adf1fc61d2497a 

WEDNESDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER - Franklin Hood correctly answered that New York Rep. Steve Israel is the outgoing lawmaker who represents one of the richest districts in the country. Tom Suozzi and Jack Martins are running to replace Israel. 

TODAY'S TRIVIA - Franklin with today's question: In which presidential election year between 1972 and 2012 did the most number of congressional districts have the majority vote for a president from one party, and elect a lawmaker from another? The first person to correctly answer gets a shout-out in tomorrow's Huddle. Email me: [email-masked] 

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