Subject: EconVue Spotlight August 15, 2016
From: "Lyric Hughes Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 15 Aug 2016 18:43:18 -0700 (PDT)

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EconVue Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

The Olympics have given us relief from the meteorological and political 
summer heat. This fascinating video

http://qz.com/757648/it-isnt-olympians-who-have-evolved-its-sports/

compares and contrasts Olympic achievements in the 1930's to the 
present, and the progress has been stunning. Given improvements in 
training and technology backed by enormous financial resources, have our 
best athletes now reached the limits of human biology? And is this a 
metaphor for economic achievement as well?

There seems to be growing acceptance of a new norm of slower global 
growth. In our last newsletter I mentioned Northwestern economist Robert 
Gordon's new book, The Rise and Fall of American Growth . I had a chance 
to see him last week and discuss his book. He cites an example that 
traveling by air from Chicago to New York takes about the same time 
today as it did in 1940, the difference being more time spent on the 
ground and less in the air. I would imagine that the experience was far 
more pleasant then too.

Japan is the leader of the developing world's Club of Slow Growth. In 
1972, the Club of Rome famously published a report The Limits of Growth

http://www.clubofrome.org/report/the-limits-to-growth/

which explored several scenarios for the world economy, including an 
exponential increase in the utilization of natural resources forecast to 
result in disaster. That has not come to pass, in spite of continued 
population growth worldwide. Rather what has occurred is slower trend 
growth overall, and unimaginable in 1972, negative interest rates in 
major economies. What does this mean for policy, markets, and for 
business? It is an entirely new mindset for long-term planning. 
Continued weakness in China, commodities, and recent US retail sales 
underline the trend, in spite of stock market highs. We highlight some 
of the most intriguing discussions about risks and opportunities below.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT GLOBAL 1. We're in a Low-Growth World. How Did 
We Get Here?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/07/upshot/were-in-a-low-growth-world-how-did-we-get-here.html?_r=0

Neil Irwin 8/6/16 NY Times This trend helps explain why incomes have 
risen so slowly since the turn of the century, especially for those who 
are not top earners. It is behind the cheap gasoline you put in the car 
and the ultralow interest rates you earn on your savings. It is crucial 
to understanding the rise of Donald J. Trump, Britain's vote to leave 
the European Union, and the rise of populist movements across Europe.

2. Low long-term interest rates as a global phenomenon

https://www.bis.org/publ/work574.htm

Peter Hördahl, Jhuvesh Sobrun, Philip Turner August 2016 Bank for 
International Settlements Low long-term interest rates as a global 
phenomenon-a new BIS working paper. 3. How Global Elites Forsake Their 
Countrymen

http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-global-elites-forsake-their-countrymen-1470959258

Peggy Noonan 8/11/16 WSJ Focused on Angela Merkel's decision to allow a 
million refugees into German, President Reagan's speechwriter Peggy 
Noonan takes a controversial stand. " From what I've seen of those in 
power throughout business and politics now, the people of your country 
are not your countrymen, they're aliens whose bizarre emotions you must 
attempt occasionally to anticipate and manage. " Political and economic 
implications. UNITED STATES 4. The Fed's shifting perspective on the 
economy and its implications for monetary policy

https://www.brookings.edu/2016/08/08/the-feds-shifting-perspective-on-the-economy-and-its-implications-for-monetary-policy/

Ben S. Bernanke 8/8/16 Brookings Bernanke says watch the numbers not the 
Fed participants. Because that is what they are watching. 5. U.S. Health 
Care Ranked Worst in the Developed World

http://time.com/2888403/u-s-health-care-ranked-worst-in-the-developed-world/?xid=fbshare

Melissa Hellmann 6/17/16 Time Perhaps, but we need to focus our efforts 
on the worst in the developing world. That is what will come back to 
bite us. 6. Americans Are Skipping Obamacare So They Can Smoke

http://fortune.com/2016/07/07/smoking-surcharge-hurts-obamacare/?xid=for_fb_sh

Sy Mukherjee 7/7/16 Fortune Unintended consequences of a 50% surcharge 
on insurance for smokers-- and ironic given that President Obama is a 
smoker himself. 7. Review: In ‘Hillbilly Elegy,' a Tough Love Analysis 
of the Poor Who Back Trump

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/11/books/review-in-hillbilly-elegy-a-compassionate-analysis-of-the-poor-who-love-trump.html?smid=fb-share

Jennifer Senior 8/10/16 NY Times For everyone on both sides of this 
election trying to understand what is causing our deep divides here in 
the US. Here is a deep dive perspective worth reading. INTERNATIONAL 8. 
Russia Expert Stephen Cohen: Trump Wants To Stop The New Cold War, But 
The American Media Just Doesn't Understand

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/07/30/russia_expert_stephen_cohen_trump_wants_to_stop_the_new_cold_war_but_the_america_media_just_doesnt_understand.html

Tim Hains 7/30/16 Real Clear Politics This is about the media more than 
the candidates. Much discussed interview that unpacks allegations that 
the Russians are trying to control or influence the US presidential 
election. 9. BRUSSELS FURY: Massive wave of anti-EU sentiment in nations 
including France and Germany

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/694998/Massive-wave-anti-EU-sentiment-nations-including-France-Germany

Caroline Wheeler 8/1/16 Express UK It is not just Great Britain. 10. 
Portugal Gaining On Italy In The European Banking "Doom Loop"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-15/portugal-gaining-italy-european-banking-doom-loop

Tyler Durden 8/15/16 Zero Hedge 11. A tiny bank in Italy could decide 
the future of Europe

http://www.businessinsider.com/a-tiny-bank-in-italy-could-decide-the-future-of-europe-2016-8

Harold James 8/3/16 Business Insider "If we want things to stay as they 
are, things will have to change." 12. What If Saudi Arabia Collapses?

http://lobelog.com/what-if-the-state-of-saudi-arabia-collapses/

Theodore Karasik, Joseph Cozza 8/10/16 LobeLog A big, big what if. 
PACIFIC 13. The Seven-Year Short&nbsp;

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-08-07/the-seven-year-short-hedge-fund-betting-on-yuan-refuses-to-quit

Bloomberg 8/7/16 Mark Hart was right about mortgage-backed securities 
and Eurobonds. Is he right about China now? 14. Beyond Structural Reform 
in China

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-supply-side-structural-reform-by-andrew-sheng-and-xiao-geng-2016-07

Andrew Sheng, Xiao Geng 7/30/16 Project Syndicate Always worth reading 
What's Next?

http://whatsnextbook.com

author Andrew Sheng for the best analysis of China's financial system. 
15. Major Chinese state paper calls for a military strike on Australian 
ships that enter the South China Sea

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/major-chinese-state-paper-calls-for-a-military-strike-on-australian-ships-that-enter-the-south-china-sea-2016-7?utm_content=buffere29a4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Greg McKenna 7/30/16 Business Insider Australia Official Chinese state 
newspaper Global Times calls Australia a "paper cat" with an "inglorious 
history" and threatens military action against her ships in the SCS. 16. 
Monetary Policy Decision

http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2016/mr-16-18.html

Reserve Bank of Australia 8/2/2016 25 bps rate cut by Reserve Bank of 
Australia was widely expected. 17. Is the BOJ just getting warmed up?

http://asia.nikkei.com/magazine/20160808-20160821-THINGS-COME-TOGETHER/Politics-Economy/Is-the-BOJ-just-getting-warmed-up?n_cid=NARAN11

Yoichi Takita 8/4/16 Nikkei Asian Review September could be key. 18. 
&nbsp;At 82, Emperor Akihito of Japan Wants to Retire. Will Japan Let 
Him?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/09/world/asia/japan-emperor-akihito-retirement.html?smid=fb-share

Jonathan Soble 8/7/16 NY Times Excellent article on the subject of the 
possible abdication of Emperor Akihito. Before the 19th century, it was 
common for emperors to abdicate. Against a background of Japan's aging 
demographics, a slow-growth economy, and rising tensions in North Asia, 
this is a delicate moment in Japanese history. 19. Gov. Koike -- I will 
bring financial institutions back to Tokyo

http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Gov.-Koike-I-will-bring-financial-institutions-back-to-Tokyo

Ken Moriyasu 8/8/16 Nikkei Asian Review Making Tokyo great again. TWO 
STEPS FORWARD, ONE STEP BACKWARD 20. The Bandwidth Bottleneck That Is 
Throttling the Internet

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-bandwidth-bottleneck-that-is-throttling-the-internet/?WT.mc_id=SA_FB_TECH_NEWS

Jeff Hecht 8/10/16 Scientific American "Digital traffic jams threaten to 
throttle the information-technology revolution."

21. Bitcoin Drops Nearly 20% as Exchange Hack Amplifies Price Decline

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-drops-12-exchange-hack-amplifies-price-decline/

Charles Bovaird 8/2/16 Coin Desk ECONVUE RESEARCH AND INSIGHTS Data 
Round-Up: Real Consumption on Track for +3% Gain in 16Q3

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/data-round-real-consumption-track-3-gain-16q3

Michael Lewis 08/12/16 After the three strong prior reports, retail 
sales came in somewhat light. Total sales were unchanged in July (+0.2% 
with revisions); the consensus was looking for +0.4%. The drop in 
gasoline prices was a major drag, as expected: service station receipts 
fell -2.7%. Where's the Beef? Employers Question the Value of Hospital 
Mergers&nbsp;

https://econvue.com/pulse/where's-beef-employers-question-value-hospital-mergers

David W. Johnson 08/10/16 How healthcare service providers should 
respond to negative views perceived by self-insured employers on 
hospital mergers. Blockchain Watch

http://

Collin Canright 08/08/16 Insight on blockchain technology that will 
change digital banking. If you would like to subscribe to our weekly 
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With all best wishes,

Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

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