Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Babeu still on top in battleground House primary — New lawsuits could limit gerrymandering — The big questions for Senate candidates
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2016 08:02:04 -0600

By Theodoric Meyer | 08/18/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard and Steven Shepard

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

PRIMARY PREVIEW - "Arizona Republicans face primary conundrum," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer in Phoenix: "He's made an illegal immigration crackdown a centerpiece of his campaign. He's a ubiquitous presence on Fox News and other cable channels. He has endured withering criticism from his Republican rivals. And he remains atop GOP primary polls, regardless. Sound familiar? Less than two weeks before an important and chaotic House primary in Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick's Arizona district, Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu remains the GOP favorite for the open swing seat. ... The 1st District is one of Republicans' only chances to pick up a new House seat in 2016 - but Babeu's
 vulnerabilities have some local Republicans worried he'll win the Aug. 30 primary only to struggle in a potentially winnable general election." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=faeea0155e3399f0fc9b9257353f237efa2eb739d1b10f3434b07224ed274b33

REDISTRICTING REFORM - "New lawsuits challenge partisan gerrymandering," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "Government reformers are touting two new cases out of North Carolina, along with two other suits already in progress in Wisconsin and Maryland, as vehicles that could potentially get the Supreme Court to establish legal limits on partisan gerrymandering - a standard that could have a significant effect on the balance of power in future Congresses. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6aa50e0151a92764acb8ed8bf5a5a7eb1b6aef18dd3dde6edf02df8e15ede3d2

THE QUESTIONS SENATE CANDIDATES NEED TO BE READY FOR - Is Clinton trustworthy? Can Trump be trusted with nukes?: With his story on New Hampshire's Senate race that ran on Tuesday, CNN's Manu Raju essentially laid down a marker for the questions Democratic and Republican House and Senate candidates need to have answers for. For Democrats, it's whether they believe former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is honest. Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan struggled to answer, and saw the clip of her evasions played relentlessly on cable news. Since then, Republican groups have dug up footage of Arizona Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick similarly ducking the question. Here's the rub: Democrats either have to
 disagree with the overwhelming majority of the American public, who think Clinton isn't trustworthy. Or they can agree that their party's presidential nominee doesn't deserve the public trust.

- But there's a big problem is on the Republican side, too: GOP senators will have to say whether they trust bombastic businessman Donald Trump with the nuclear codes. GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte's non-answer to that question didn't draw as much attention as Hassan's, but two other Republicans were asked the same question on Wednesday. Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, through spokesman Michawn Rich, told the Toledo Blade: "Rob believes that Mr. Trump and the national security team he appoints will protect our security interests and do everything they can to keep America safe, and that includes the president's nuclear responsibilities." Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson told his state's public radio network:
 "Certainly. Take a look at his vice president pick, take a look at his Supreme Court justices, take a look at his family." (Note that both answers mention who Trump surrounds himself with, not the candidate's own judgment.) Democrats will use these answers to rebut attacks on national security. If Republicans hit Ted Strickland for supporting the Iran deal, for instance, the DSCC and Strickland's campaign could argue that Trump's itchy trigger finger is a bigger immediate threat.

NEW THIS MORNING - NRSC to release slew of Iran videos: The NRSC is planning a web video blitz today, hitting 10 Democratic Senate candidates - Deborah Ross, Maggie Hassan, Katie McGinty, Jim Barksdale, Ann Kirkpatrick, Russ Feingold, Tammy Duckworth, Ted Strickland, Patrick Murphy and Catherine Cortez Masto - on the Iran deal and asking if they support the Obama administration's alleged $400 million ransom payment to Iran. The NRSC is leaning hard into national security issues, and their IE is attacking Cortez Masto and McGinty on the Iran deal. Here's the video the group will use to hit Murphy: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6aa50e0151a927640918e6114958590f38951e0e5f3f3a644623753595872535

Days until the 2016 election: 82.

Days until the Arizona and Florida congressional primaries: 12.

Thank for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about dads and pot brownies: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

OVEREXPOSED - "Identity thieves target Dems' big donors after DNC hack," by POLITICO's Dan Spinelli, Edward-Isaac Dovere and Gabriel Debenedetti: "Identity theft wasn't supposed to be part of writing checks to the Democratic National Committee. The massive data breach that drove the DNC's chairwoman out the door has now swept up the party's biggest donors, too, their Social Security numbers and personal information compromised by hackers and forcing fundraisers to spend money to protect themselves. 'All my shit was hacked,' said a major donor, who has given to the Democrats for years. ... 'I already got a call that someone was trying to use my Social Security number,' said Eric Schoenberg,
 a top DNC donor and adjunct professor at the Wharton School of Business, who said a person applied for an online loan with his information. 'The answer is: nobody is safe.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6aa50e0151a9276435f7cf6f17102d76b31402cf7f518aca28ad2eb341e85331

BAYH POLL-ARITY - Bayh leads Indiana Senate poll: Donald Trump is leading Hillary Clinton by double digits in Indiana, with 47 percent support to Clinton's 36 percent, according to a new Monmouth University poll. But former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh - who only last month launched a carefully plotted comeback bid - has a 7-point lead over his GOP opponent, Rep. Todd Young, 48 percent to 41 percent. The poll shows a closer race than a previous Democratic internal survey, conducted in the immediate wake of Bayh's announcement last month. That survey, commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, showed Bayh 21 points ahead of Young. Another poll from Democratic gubernatorial
 candidate John Gregg also showed Bayh leading by a wide margin.

- As of now, Bayh is winning enough crossover voters to claim the lead, despite Trump's advantage: 16 percent of Trump voters also said they would cast their ballots for Bayh, with Young winning only 3 percent of Clinton voters.The Monmouth University poll was conducted Aug. 13-16, surveying 403 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Here's the polling memo: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6aa50e0151a927642cbb933b22734ffbcaa210c76a086271b7027e23dc81dceb

FIRST IN SCORE - Kirk campaign launches Duckworth-Trump quiz: GOP Sen. Mark Kirk of Illinois has already disavowed Donald Trump, calling him "too bigoted and racist" to be president. Now the campaign is actively mocking Trump while suggesting that Kirk's Democratic opponent, Rep. Tammy Duckworth, is even worse. The Kirk campaign is launching a new site this morning, tammyortrump.com, that features a quiz asking visitors to decide whether certain actions were taken by Duckworth or Trump. The first question: "Who told a former employee 'keep your mouth shut' if she wanted to keep her job?" Spoiler: "Tammy" is the answer to every question except one.

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Clinton sends Kaine into red territory," by POLITICO's Gabriel Debenedetti: When Tim Kaine lands in Jackson for a pair of closed-door fundraisers on Thursday, it won't be because Hillary Clinton's running mate is desperate for Wyoming's three electoral votes. The vice presidential contender's trip west to raise cash is taking him to deep-red Idaho after a Wednesday stop in Missouri and reflects the Clinton campaign's desire to plant a seed of doubt in Trump Tower about the shape of the electoral map. 'Part of what they want to signal is that she has so many pathways to 270 [electoral votes], and the more that the campaign moves toward November the more diverse
 those pathways get for Hillary and the narrower that path gets for Trump,' said Maria Cardona, a Democratic strategist closely aligned with campaign who was a top Clinton aide in 2008." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6aa50e0151a9276427067992647da9257953aa9f0474d40d5156307248a7f784

- "Stephen Bannon, a rookie campaign chief who 'loves the fight,'" by The New York Times' Michael Barbaro and Michael M. Grynbaum: Steve "Bannon, 62, who grew up in a Democratic family in Virginia that fled the party in favor of Richard Nixon's law-and-order Republicanism, has quietly advised Mr. Trump throughout his campaign, according to friends and colleagues. But as Mr. Trump's candidacy has started to sputter and flail, Mr. Bannon's role has intensified, so much so that Mr. Trump asked to meet with him over the weekend and offered him the position of chief executive. That vaunted post, which makes Mr. Bannon the single most influential figure in the Trump campaign, is a leap of faith
 by a candidate who has long eschewed political professionals: Mr. Bannon has never before worked on a national campaign, let alone overseen one. But his r&eacute;sum&eacute; is thick with the kind of experience Mr. Trump covets: a deep understanding of how the news media works and how public perceptions are molded." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6aa50e0151a92764c956d0b23ee4237dbb580c8f4ae73db8444ff2c749169460

- "Manafort was go-between in secret Ukraine lobbying campaign," by Yahoo News' Michael Isikoff: "Paul Manafort, Donald Trump's campaign chairman, personally recruited a top lobbyist for a $2.2 million campaign aimed at influencing U.S. policy toward Ukraine, but refused to tell him who was behind the effort, the lobbyist, former Republican congressman Vin Weber, tells Yahoo News. ... Weber's account shows how Manafort's work for the Kiev regime may have gone beyond his self-described role as a campaign adviser to Yanukovych to include active-and previously secret-efforts to influence U.S. policy in the region." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6aa50e0151a92764dfca62086f15855d3f2d49cad69a97104f9f14b24e39abfc

- "Pence builds bridges, alone," by POLITICO's Matthew Nussbaum in Albuquerque, N.M.: "Mike Pence is on a mission to mend fences between recalcitrant Republicans and Donald Trump, but Trump isn't helping him do it. Pence is hoping his years in the upper echelons of Republican politics will help him win over Republicans still skeptical of their party's nominee, but his bid has gotten little help from the top of the ticket. The plan for GOP outreach started with Pence, his aides confirm, and while Trump is nominally supports the effort, he hasn't taken an active part in it. Pence, not Trump, picks who gets meetings and phone calls, and when Pence does speak with fellow Republicans, Trump does
 not send along guidance or specific messages for his running mate to convey." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6aa50e0151a92764076d041ccabfcd377d7211f3c0379acd1c6d8fd0b223362a

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "That's why God made Scotch." - Rep. John Katko (R-N.Y.), on how it feels to share a ticket with Donald Trump and Sen. Chuck Schumer's longer-than-long-shot challenger, Wendy Long. (Hat tip: @stephencvengros.) http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6aa50e0151a927647a87d870f71c12ba114aea4749520440fac5ed7fffbdd93c

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