Subject: POLITICO Huddle: Bayh internal: Bayh 55, Young 39 – Congressional hopeful’s profanity-laced tirade against POLITICO -- NEW $10M PUSH TO SAVE HOUSE GOP – Battle for N.C. Senate tightens – Obama pushed to double refugee intake – THE GOP ‘BREAK GLASS’ PLAN
From: "POLITICO Huddle" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2016 04:56:48 -0600

08/22/2016 06:54 AM EDT

By Seung Min Kim ([email-masked] or @seungminkim)

With an assist from Daniel Lippman

EXCLUSIVE -- Bayh internal: Bayh 55, Young 39: Former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh, now waging a comeback bid in Indiana, suffered days of negative coverage last week - particularly over whether the Hoosier State really is his chief residence - and an onslaught of attack ads from Republicans. But polling taken in the heat of that coverage by the Bayh campaign last week and obtained by Huddle shows the moderate Democrat still with a significant, 16-point advantage over Republican Rep. Todd Young. 

--The polling firm Garin-Hart-Yang finds Bayh with 55 percent of the vote and Young with 39 percent, with 6 percent undecided. More from the pollsters: "Young led among GOP voters 63 percent to 27 percent in July, while he has, not surprisingly, expanded his advantage to 75 percent to 20 percent over the past month. Still, the fact that Bayh CONTINUES to garner one in five Republican voters is an impressive feat in today's politically polarized world."

--The poll surveyed 801 likely voters from Aug. 15 to Aug. 18, and has a margin of error of 3.5 percent. Read the one-page memo here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1b14dbc726bb1058f3695f3455c6c8f23428171e564c818e1ae9d7ff593fdfc8

--My colleagues over at Campaign Score had similar numbers in a poll taken by Global Strategy Group for Senate Majority PAC, the super PAC dedicated to electing Democrats. Here's that poll, but for subscribers only: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1b14dbc726bb10580589c2583c84c8c8d6eb26751037ae242c0f3234e144929c

BEST THING YOU'LL LISTEN TO TODAY - "Former Secret Service agent and congressional candidate Dan Bongino went on a screaming, profanity-laced tirade Sunday during a telephone call with a POLITICO Florida reporter who asked him to clarify his criticism of a story published by the Naples Daily News." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1b14dbc726bb10580d940625172efacbbc7dc3d97a8519435c801e00f9636def

--The phone convo is NSFW! Link: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1b14dbc726bb1058354cfbcdb4b9c3e9aa3af01cb5191bffb9f2d6891d063d88

NEW $10M PUSH TO SAVE HOUSE GOP - Rachael Bade with the scoop for POLITICO: "A leading super PAC aligned with House Republicans will unveil a record $10 million in spending on Monday in a dozen of the most competitive House districts - a sign of the party's efforts to rally behind Speaker Paul Ryan and avoid a down-ballot bloodbath." 

--"The spending includes $7.4 million for TV ads in nine districts. About $3.4 million of the $10 million total will go toward efforts to pick up seats currently held by Democrats, and $1.5 million will be used to initiate GOP ground games in California and New York." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1b14dbc726bb1058d4502834df55b9247166b48e4dcc61d3127060fdc9185f4b

QUOTE OF THE DAY, from Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.) in an interview with the Associated Press in Atlanta: "If Donald Trump or anybody else makes a stupid statement, I'm not going to be their apologist and let the press beat up on me. They'll have to go to the person who made the stupid statement. I'll apologize when I do something stupid because I should. But I'm not going to be the volunteer apologist for anybody else." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1b14dbc726bb1058b1d61b9baaeea670fc03e037a8db549109bb4eedcd2d9fd2

BATTLE FOR NORTH CAROLINA SENATE TIGHTENS - Wall Street Journal's Siobhan Hughes from Winston-Salem, N.C., where she reports that Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) is ramping up his campaign, but not as quickly as Republicans would like: "Mr. Burr, a policy-oriented chairman of the Intelligence Committee, said he isn't relying 'on anyone's coattails' in this election ... So far, Mr. Burr's campaign shows few signs of the retail campaigning associated with competitive contests. It waited until Tuesday to begin TV ads."

--"He brushed off the Journal/NBC News/Marist poll as an outlier, and said voters wouldn't focus on the race until after Labor Day, when school starts and vacations end. 'I look at the last three weeks as the most important part of the campaign,' Mr. Burr said in an interview. 'I know that's how we're structuring my campaign-building up to that three-week sprint.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1b14dbc726bb10588cf14a9fd007912bb3141f956c03a114fea7121feb0ccdd4

SUNDAY SHOW WRAP-UP -

--New Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway calls the GOP nominee's proposed deportation force - an idea he floated during the primaries - "to be determined," while Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) concedes Trump is "wrestling" with the issue of immigration. CNN: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1b14dbc726bb105882d08cb73d260bb7c360c2bb36812585a107d1678251f359 WaPo: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1b14dbc726bb1058e5f94806d32524994f1d37214fff93e6843eea1d3c2f4464

--Maryland Sen. Ben Cardin, the top Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, says on "Fox News Sunday" that the Clinton Foundation will "clearly need to change the way they do business" if Hillary Clinton is elected president. Real Clear Politics: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1b14dbc726bb1058b82abfff81ed0d93f449571b87c88184aa86dcb41c1cebbe

--And Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook says there are "real questions being raised about whether Donald Trump himself is just a puppet for the Kremlin in this race." ABC News: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1b14dbc726bb1058979c7d0eba230f95633b51c3d9e4d8b12e05feb08cf3f259

WELCOME TO MONDAY, August 22, 2016 and welcome to the Huddle, where we unfortunately realized Heather Caygle gets vacations. I'll be driving the Huddle train today and tomorrow, while Rachael Bade will be taking over on Wednesday through the rest of the week. You can reach me at [email-masked] and on Twitter at @seungminkim, while Rachael is at [email-masked] and on Twitter at @rachaelmbade. 

TODAY IN CONGRESS - Enjoying week six of the seven-week recess.

AROUND THE HILL - Congressional reporters struggling to write stories without lawmakers around. Just two more weeks, people!

OBAMA URGED TO DOUBLE REFUGEE INTAKE - From POLITICO's Nahal Toosi: "President Barack Obama is on track to exceed his goal of bringing 10,000 Syrian refugees to the United States this fiscal year, federal records show. But human rights activists, buoyed by a surge of interest in Syria thanks to the viral photo of a bloodied young boy, are hoping he will aim for a much higher target in the following 12 months."

--"Some are calling on Obama to admit at least 200,000 refugees from around the world, including tens of thousands of Syrians, through the U.S. refugee resettlement program and other routes. That's effectively twice as many total refugees as the Obama administration has planned to accept in the fiscal year that starts Oct. 1." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1b14dbc726bb10588acec04d169bc74a29e9eee77eb52e25766343b8012fae60

DEMS PLAN NEW PUSH ON GARLAND (Part ... Huddle has lost count) - NYT's Alan Rappeport: "Emboldened by their electoral prospects in November, Democrats are planning to redouble their efforts to make the fate of the Supreme Court a signature election issue, with the Democratic leader in the Senate threatening to stall Republican legislative priorities if no action is taken on the confirmation of Judge Merrick B. Garland ... 'We're not going to back off,' Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the Democratic minority leader, said in an interview [last] week." 

--"Mr. Reid would not say what kinds of procedural moves Democrats might employ to pressure Republicans when Congress reconvenes in early September, but he suggested that there were plenty of options to stop up the Senate's business, including some that Republicans have used. 'They've blocked all legislation, they've blocked nominations, they've filibustered all kinds of things,' Mr. Reid said. 'We haven't done that, but it doesn't mean we can't do it when we come back.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1b14dbc726bb10580e70f39a1f646e848f71e03ff45944bca38e11cf7eedcc5e

--The story also says a Garland recess appointment is being considered, but a reminder that the Senate is doing pro forma sessions (where a senator gavels the chamber in and out for a few minutes every three days) precisely so Obama can't do a recess appointment: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1b14dbc726bb105850c158d6bf13aefc25d0f01198aca213c95805b47a0ed6e8

GOP'S 'BREAK GLASS' PLAN - News from POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "Party strategists are mapping out blueprints for down-ballot candidates, in TV ads and on the campaign trail, to present themselves as checks on a Hillary Clinton presidency. It's an approach that would essentially admit a Trump loss. In interviews, nearly one dozen Republican operatives said they had begun poll-testing the idea - which one labeled a 'break glass in case of emergency' strategy - to gauge how the public would react to it." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1b14dbc726bb1058e95232b39d4dab148b7666e41a0ff66debceb20f76e265fc

THANKS DAD! Tampa Bay Times: 'Patrick Murphy's dad dumps $1M into Senate Democrats' super PAC' - "A new FEC filing shows Thomas Murphy Jr. gave $1 million last month to a Democratic super PAC that has ties to outgoing Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid ... Thomas Murphy's donation to the Senate Majority PAC came July 13, just two days before the super PAC announced a $1 million ad buy in Florida to help Patrick Murphy's race." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1b14dbc726bb1058f1b66d5976e47a14838c3e7f78d98a759dba28b180b891f0

--Senate Leadership Fund: "BREAKING: Patrick Murphy's Dad Lights Another $1 Million on Fire to Help Son"

PORTMAN, GRASSLEY STILL LEADING IN RE-ELECT - Latest polling in Ohio and Iowa Senate, from CBS News: "Republican Rob Portman, running for re-election to the Senate in Ohio, is running seven points ahead of his Democratic opponent Ted Strickland, even as Trump is trailing Clinton by six. Voters in Ohio overwhelmingly call Portman a 'different' kind of Republican from Trump. And Chuck Grassley, a longtime incumbent, is up in Iowa as well," with a seven-point lead over Democrat Patty Judge. CBS: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=1b14dbc726bb105852afeb961a3c50d482d01827e839b77ac110dc350d8ca0e9

--More on Iowa Senate: Jason Noble of the Des Moines Register finds that "Iowans have a tendency to split their tickets between Republicans and Democrats, and that tendency has almost always benefited Grassley. The six-term incumbent is a juggernaut at winning over independent and Democratic voters."

--More from Jason: "In five statewide re-election campaigns dating to 1986, Grassley has shown a remarkable ability to win support from voters who back Democrats and third-party candidates elsewhere on the ballot. In four of those races, he's won more votes than the total cast by Republican and independent voters, meaning that he's received tens of thousands of votes from registered Democrats." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7d868a5b587e29df687164caab97d484b860200bfe28eff1d36d681a904899c5

OH BOY - Kirk calls Obama 'drug-dealer-in-chief' over Iran payment, via the Chicago Tribune: "Republican U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk, who has made opposition to a U.S.-led nuclear agreement with Iran a major theme of his re-election campaign, likened home-state President Barack Obama to 'drug dealer in chief" over a $400 million payment linked to the release of American prisoners. Kirk's controversial rhetoric has been an issue as the first-term senator is viewed as perhaps the most vulnerable Republican incumbent nationally this fall." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7d868a5b587e29dffcf66bd0f386e9a5011570449613ea161f12e1f6486d9483

HOUSE LAWMAKERS PREP DETROIT MEETING - Rachael Bade: "Lawmakers serving on a new congressional working group aimed at addressing racial tensions between police officers and the African-American community will take a break from their summer recess to convene in Detroit at the end of the month."

--"The policing strategies group being led by House Judiciary Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.) and Ranking Member John Conyers (D-Mich.) will meet with local community leaders and law enforcement on Aug. 29 and Aug. 30 to talk about 'police accountability, aggression towards law enforcement, and public safety concerns related to these issues,' the committee says." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=7d868a5b587e29df764e56014fc753b36e7515221d2076b875d2835003ee83a2

DEPARTURE LOUNGE - Tom Standifer has left the office of Sen. Barbara Boxer where he was a legislative assistant focusing on tech and privacy to go to law school at the University of Michigan. 

Mike Naple, communications director for Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.), is moving on to join the press shop at the Department of Health and Human Services. 

FRIDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER - Christopher Colford was the first to guess that Walter "Big Train" Johnson was the baseball legend who lost to incumbent Maryland Rep. William Byron. 

TODAY'S TRIVIA - Christopher with today's multi-part question: What was the closest electoral-vote margin in history, and who was the winner and who was the loser in terms of both the popular vote and the electoral vote? (Hint: The answer is not Bush vs. Gore). The first person to correctly answer gets a shout-out in tomorrow's Huddle. Email me: [email-masked].

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