Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by Sinclair Broadcast Group: Polls out in North Carolina, Arizona, CA-07 — Is Bayh’s brand enough to tip the Senate? — Sununu business partnership not as local as he said — Strickland ad ties Portman to Trump
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2016 08:01:57 -0600

By Elena Schneider | 08/25/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard, Theodoric Meyer and Maggie Severns

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

HAVE I POLLED YOU LATELY - "CNN Senate polls: McCain leads primary, general; Burr ahead in North Carolina," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: "GOP Sen. John McCain has a hefty lead over his primary challenger, former state Sen. Kelli Ward, ahead of Tuesday's primary, and he leads Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick in the general election, according to a new CNN poll. ... McCain is leading Ward, 55 percent to 29 percent, among likely GOP primary voters in Arizona. He leads Kirkpatrick 52 percent to 39 percent among both likely and registered voters."

- "CNN also polled North Carolina, where it found GOP Sen. Richard Burr with a slight lead, 50 percent to 45 percent, over Democrat Deborah Ross among likely voters. (Burr led Ross 49 percent to 46 percent among registered voters.) The race was essentially tied at the presidential level in North Carolina, with Clinton at 48 percent and Trump at 47 percent among likely voters." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d9085c229fb3bc4f2c2a165486b52da59e7d31336149b2b6d0bbeb3a2fce3b84 

- More from North Carolina ... "A new Monmouth University poll of North Carolina shows tight presidential and Senate races in the state, but Democrat Roy Cooper holding a lead over GOP Gov. Pat McCrory. Cooper leads by 9 points, with 52 percent to McCrory's 43 percent. ... In the Senate race, Sen. Richard Burr has a 2-point lead advantage over Democrat Deborah Ross, 45 percent to 43 percent. Another 8 percent are undecided. Both candidates are largely unknown: Nearly half of voters have no opinion on Burr, while 32 percent view him favorably and 21 percent view him unfavorably. Seventy-one percent of voters said they hold no opinion of Ross, a former state legislator." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca8dc7fb959cfa33964602a12ecfe334e734fb6523eb9b14468864e3106ce53

- IN THE HOUSE - Second poll finds Bera and Jones deadlocked in CA-07: Democratic Rep. Ami Bera and his Republican opponent, Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones, are essentially tied according to another new GOP internal poll conducted for Congressional Leadership Fund. Among registered voters, Jones had 46 percent support and Bera had 45 percent. The poll echoed a survey done for the NRCC and the Jones campaign that showed Bera with a nominal 1-point advantage. But the Congressional Leadership Fund poll shows Clinton leading Trump in the district, 46 percent to 36 percent; the earlier survey showed a closer presidential race. The poll was conducted by NMB Research between Aug. 9 and Aug.
 11 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Here's the full polling memo: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca8dc7fb959cfa39a5757cfac7a4acaf89db983c84e6f80f0a04b3730ca2335

WHAT'S IN A NAME - "Can one name - Bayh - win Democrats control of the Senate?" by POLITICO's Seung Min Kim in Indianapolis: "...By the normal laws of politics, Evan Bayh shouldn't have a prayer in the Indiana Senate race this fall. And six weeks after he jumped into a race Republicans assumed they had all but won, the former Democratic senator and governor is under growing scrutiny over how much time he spends in Indiana and whether he has profited off his Senate career. ... Yet none of that will likely matter come Election Day. The Bayh brand still goes a long way in Indiana, and he's betting that his family's six-decade bond with voters is too durable for Republicans to tear down in a
 few months." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca8dc7fb959cfa3cd0fa29d71b160c9bcbe77e3c2b1393f02fe4e3c500e0395

(NOT) LOCALLY SOURCED - "Sununu's business partnership not as local as he said," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca8dc7fb959cfa39706b0f50ab6e334115f435dafe9ea5db6513005fc1be014

Days until the 2016 election: 75.

Days until the Arizona and Florida congressional primaries: 5.

Thank for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about how Duke is rude to its alums, because Duke: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest and most diversified television broadcasting company in the country today, delivers not only TV, the primary medium for reaching potential voters, but also targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and native) ad solutions. Contact Alan Brittan @ 703-236-9673. Sinclair, busy - Making Political Ads Work! **

MERCER RULE - "McCain rips big donor, warns of future campaign finance scandals," by POLITICO's Burgess Everett in Scottsdale, Ariz.: "A billionaire supporting Sen. John McCain's underdog primary opponent may be doing so as payback, McCain said Wednesday. Robert Mercer, co-CEO of hedge fund Renaissance Technologies, gave $200,000 to a Super PAC supporting Kelli Ward, McCain's conservative challenger in next week's GOP primary. ...Two years ago, McCain and former Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.) issued a report that named Mercer's company as among more than a dozen firms that dodged billions in tax payments through a complicated financial product known as basket offerings. ...On Wednesday, McCain
 suggested there's a connection between Mercer's financial help for Ward and the scrutiny his company's trading practices received." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca8dc7fb959cfa315f2120eb98900c4cdac763eaf6975b36076c2d8726e75bc 

FIRST IN SCORE - Strickland ad lays into Portman for supporting Trump: Ohio Democrat Ted Strickland links GOP Sen. Rob Portman with Donald Trump when it comes to women in a new ad. The ad, which is airing in Cleveland and Columbus media markets starting today, marks the first time Strickland has tied Portman to Trump on TV. "We all know what Donald Trump has said about women. So how can Rob Portman still support him? Maybe it's because they agree on so much, like overturning Roe v. Wade, and defunding Planned Parenthood, and opposing equal pay for women," a female narrator says in the ad. Portman has not enthusiastically embraced Trump on the campaign trail, but he is supporting the nominee
 and has put less distance between Trump, who is expected to perform well in some rural parts of the state, than other candidates. Watch the ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca8dc7fb959cfa39e82ba73405930a25a697b11f86092fedc82690a8f9c8087

- There could be more on the way: The "Ohio Needs to Know" page on Strickland's website, where super PACs appear to have taken their cues on some previous ads (ICYMI: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca8dc7fb959cfa3509f3fa6e51da68deb73d04120bcea54aacdc0f663c52353 currently suggests that women in those media markets need to hear more on the topic: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca8dc7fb959cfa34ddc29c6ac5c978794e107a1eb943f82d12011972fbd7f2f

FIRST IN SCORE - New Boustany ad focuses on flood recovery: Two days after releasing the first two ads of his campaign, Rep. Charles Boustany is out with the third, which focuses on Louisiana's recovery from floods that have devastated Baton Rouge. The 30-second spot opens with an aerial shot of an airboat moving through the flooding. "As the water rose, our character rose even higher," Boustany says in the ad, before promsing to fight for "good flood insurance" and coastal restoration. "Louisiana never quits, and I won't quit on you," he concludes. "We'll get through this together." Watch the ad here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca8dc7fb959cfa39f24dc7316afdf986c9f2b8a3bdbf73ba56ef0842d0627ce

HARSH FOOTAGE - In Nevada ... "A new ad from Senate Majority PAC uses news coverage from the San Bernardino terrorist attack to hit Nevada GOP Rep. Joe Heck over gun control. 'December of last year, 14 Americans were killed in a mass shooting inspired by ISIS,' a narrator says over footage of news coverage of the massacre. 'In the aftermath, Congressman Joe Heck had the chance to ban suspected terrorists from buying guns. Heck voted 'No' 23 times.'" Watch the ad here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca8dc7fb959cfa34e112c0d3fa1bfb5f62c1eed654f9e0007f3e5cbdc7d561f http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca8dc7fb959cfa373c9c4c9c17ab42058020e97de3002de0cf3dc687dc8a76b 

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "How Nevada's independent streak is helping Trump," by POLITICO Magazine's Jon Ralston: "...In other battleground states, where Donald Trump is trailing his Democratic rival by large margins, Trump has proved problematic for down ballot candidates like Mark Kirk in Illinois and Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire, who are taking pains to keep him at arms length on the trail. But in Nevada the volatile and unorthodox GOP presidential nominee has kept the gap with Hillary Clinton within the margin of error. As a result, Rep. Joe Heck , the Republican Senate candidate who is battling Reid's chosen candidate Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, has not treated the brash
 mogul as if he is leper. ...The reasons why Trump is not withering in the face of electoral history and Heck is holding his own against Reid's onslaught have to do with everything from Nevada's strikingly high percentage of undereducated voters to the state's perennial disinterest in presidential campaigns, even one as unprecedented as this one and the lingering bruises of an economic collapse that punished Nevada harder than almost anywhere else in the country." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca8dc7fb959cfa3473d88c96d2da78fcbb951d2593ac554303fbddcfea53b0e 

- "Ethicists scoff at Clinton Foundation transition plan," by POLITICO's Katy O'Donnell: "The Clinton Foundation's vague timetable to limit its involvement with overseas programs, and its insistence that Chelsea Clinton remain on its board, raise red flags for ethics watchdogs even as the charity vows to avoid conflicts of interest in a Hillary Clinton presidency. ...But Richard Painter, former ethics counsel in the George W. Bush administration, said that if the Clintons really wanted to separate themselves, they could do it tomorrow." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca8dc7fb959cfa33d898c5bcc31fb66d8e1504b442cccef7683e93b297c6c18 

- "Donald Trump's Description of Black America Is Offending Those Living in It," by The New York Times' Richard Fausset, Alan Blinder and John Eligon: "Dogged by suggestions that he has been running a racist campaign, Mr. Trump has been expressing concern for African-Americans more in the past week than at any other point in his presidential run, and making a direct appeal for their votes. 'What do you have to lose?' he has asked. But the unrelievedly dire picture he has painted of black America has left many black voters angry, dumbfounded or both. Interviews with roughly a dozen blacks here turned up no one who found any appeal in Mr. Trump's remarks. More common was the suggestion that
 Mr. Trump was using the remarks to appeal to whites who might support him." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca8dc7fb959cfa3b2ba04ac54659ab301787951538f87ba17423c2706b10b86 

- "Beyond Trump," by MSNBC's Leigh Ann Caldwell and Benjy Sarlin: "...Whether or not Trump prevails in November, the GOP is set for a rebuilding process like none in recent memory. If he wins, he'll face a Congress whose leaders have largely distanced themselves from his brand and who oppose much of his agenda. If he loses, his one-of-a-kind candidacy offers each faction of the party a credible argument that its approach would have carried the election instead. We asked more than a dozen prominent minds in the Republican Party, including Trump supporters and Trump critics, fiscal conservatives and social conservatives, tea party rabble-rousers and veteran establishment hands, to assess the
 impact of Trump's emergence and where the party goes from here." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca8dc7fb959cfa3e332c5fe52b0d0b428a1ba12fa46b5b4b7d89b13f133ece3 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I don't know who would run against him. He's done such great things for the community," Karen Nelson told WDAY 6 about her mayor of Cormorant, Minn. Who is a dog. Duke the Great Pyrenees. He wears a tiny hat. Happy Thursday. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=aca8dc7fb959cfa3406e1597026fa701288c10ea48b7b7adc9ebf6380452d176 

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: News, opinions, and entertainment surround us 24/7, yet a fundamental truth remains, whether for competitive races or impactful ballot measures, the TV commercial reigns as the medium for reaching potential voters. TV helps strongly at the margins. Television is also the easiest way to reach undecided voters. Those passive folks who don't show up at the rallies or ask for email updates, but will be there to pull the levers on Election Day. At the Sinclair Broadcast Group, one of the largest and most diversified television broadcasting companies in the country, we combine TV with targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and native) ad
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