Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Primary season recap — New Democratic polls on Senate, minimum wage in seven states — NRCC adds six to Young Guns — New GOP polling in CA-10
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 01 Sep 2016 08:02:12 -0600

By Theodoric Meyer | 09/01/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Scott Bland, Kevin Robillard, Maggie Severns and Elena Schneider

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

PRIMARY RECAP - "GOP establishment trounces tea party in congressional primaries," by POLITICO's Rachael Bade and Elena Schneider: "It turns out the ultimate year of the outsider is pretty much limited to Donald Trump. Establishment-aligned GOP primary candidates for Congress beat conservative challengers this summer in just about every major match-up, a stark reversal of the dynamic that's driven Republican politics since 2010. Tea party-candidates failed to take out a single GOP incumbent this year .... More glaring, given the difficulty of toppling an incumbent, was the inability of conservatives groups like the Club for Growth and Senate Conservative Fund to capture more than a handful
 of open seats, as conservative candidates who pledged to vote with the far-right House Freedom Caucus fell to contenders backed by mainstream Republican groups, including two in Arizona and Florida on Tuesday." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=60d783a874ee7173854e06dfc21152f63069a592bbd33e331cb614c5f90b9f73

- AND YET - Elections are about wins and losses, and Senate Republicans haven't lost an incumbent in a primary since 2012. But from a vote share perspective, it's worth noting the last two election years have been kind of ugly for them. Just 25 senators (out of 250) have gotten less than two-thirds of the vote in a primary since 1998. Eight of them are veteran Republicans who ran in 2014 or 2016, such as Tennessee's Lamar Alexander (49.7 percent). Even though tea-party challengers aren't unseating incumbents right now, they are still dragging them into tough races, making them think harder about their primaries, and making them work harder to keep their base happy than in the recent past.
 On the one hand, GOP Sen. John McCain won his primary by a double-digit margin Tuesday; on the other hand, he was held under 52 percent - a lower share than 238 of 250 Senate incumbent primaries in the last 20 years - by an opponent McCain and his allies derided as a kook for, among other things, holding a town hall meeting on "chemtrails." Primary win after primary win for incumbents this year proved that things are not quite as unstable within the Republican Party as Donald Trump's nomination made it seem - but those wins themselves also gloss over some serious instability.

SWING STATE POLL BONANZA - National Employment Law Project Action Fund releases 7 Senate polls ahead of a minimum-wage increase push: The nonprofit group is planning to put time and money into making minimum wage increases a major political issue in Senate races this fall, and it started by releasing PPP automated surveys in seven races with closely watched presidential and Senate contests. Arizona: Donald Trump 46-43 Hillary Clinton, John McCain (R) 43-43 Ann Kirkpatrick (D). Missouri: Trump 47-41 Clinton, Roy Blunt (R) 47-43 Jason Kander (D). New Hampshire: Clinton 46-40 Trump, Maggie Hassan (D) 47-45 Kelly Ayotte (R). North Carolina: Clinton 45-44 Trump, Richard Burr (R) 46-43 Deborah
 Ross (D). Ohio: Clinton 46-42 Trump, Rob Portman (R) 48-39 Ted Strickland. Pennsylvania: Clinton 48-43 Trump, Katie McGinty (D) 46-40 Pat Toomey (R). Wisconsin: Clinton 48-41 Trump, Russ Feingold (D) 49-42 Ron Johnson (R).

- The ballot tests (all conducted Aug. 26-29) show a notably rosier picture for Arizona Democratic challenger Ann Kirkpatrick than other recent surveys in the state, including a CNN poll that had her trailing McCain by 13 percentage points. NELP Action's surveys also found strong support for minimum wage increases and asked voters whether they would be more or less likely to support candidates who supported or opposed minimum wage increases. In Arizona, where McCain and Kirkpatrick will share the ballot with a ballot measure to raise the state minimum wage, 68 percent of respondents said they supported raising the federal minimum wage, and 53 percent said they'd be at least somewhat less
 likely to back a candidate who opposed it. Kirkpatrick moved over McCain on an "informed ballot" test - as did every Senate Democrat tested in these surveys.

- Senate Democrats tried this in 2014, too, and it wasn't enough to save red-state senators like Arkansas' Mark Pryor. But progressives believe the purple- and blue-hued Senate landscape this year will give the message more oomph. "Swing state voters in this election are looking for candidates who will stand with them in supporting a strong minimum wage increase, and elected officials who oppose raising the minimum wage do so at their political peril," NELP Action executive director Christine Owens said in a statement. See the surveys here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=60d783a874ee7173377e9392ed647e6e2aca5d39bb3647e470fd758999bf7bb0

THINGS POLL APART - Two new Wisconsin Senate polls diverge wildly: Wisconsin Democrat Russ Feingold has the advantage over GOP Sen. Ron Johnson in two polls released today, but one survey was Johnson's best showing in a nonpartisan poll this year - and the other showed double-digit separation for the Democrat. The Marquette University Law School poll shows a much closer race, with Feingold taking 48 percent to Johnson's 45 percent among likely voters, within the margin of error. (Among registered voters, Feingold led 46 percent to 42 percent.) Meanwhile, a new Monmouth University poll found Feingold leading Johnson among likely voters, 54 percent to 41 percent. Both polls were conducted in
 late August. Feingold has had an advantage in every public poll of the race.

Days until the 2016 election: 68.

Days until the Massachusetts congressional primary: 5.

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FIRST IN SCORE - GOP internal poll: Denham 57, Eggman 35 in CA-10: GOP Rep. Jeff Denham's campaign has massive lead over Democratic challenger Michael Eggman in a new internal poll conducted for Denham's campaign and the NRCC. Among likely voters, Denham leads Eggman 57 percent to 35 percent, while Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are tied. The poll was conducted Aug. 28-30 by Public Opinion Strategies and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. The poll shows a much different race than a DCCC internal poll released earlier this week, while found Denham leading Eggman by just 3 points, and Clinton with a 5-point edge over Trump. Full polling memo: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e24aba44603531a17c175341f1a23f20797272f95af48254d72e9b4f446a415

GETTING THE NOD - NRCC adds six to Young Guns program: The NRCC is adding six House candidates running for open seats to its "Young Guns" program, which supports candidates in the most competitive races. Five of them won primaries this month: Jason Lewis in Minnesota's 2nd District, Jack Bergman in Michigan's 1st District, Mike Gallagher in Wisconsin's 8th District, Paul Babeu in Arizona's 1st District and Brian Mast in Florida's 18th District. The sixth, Claudia Tenney, won the primary to fill GOP Rep. Richard Hanna's seat in upstate New York back in June. But Hanna has refused to endorse her, and some questioned whether the NRCC would fully back her.

AFTER THE PRIMARY - "Could McCain lose?" by POLITICO's Burgess Everett in Miami, Ariz.: "Ann Kirkpatrick earned the title of John McCain's toughest Democratic opponent ever through 15 months of preparation, eight years of grueling House races and a lot of luck with Donald Trump at the top of the Republican ticket. But she'll need all that and much, much more to pull off a stunner and unseat McCain. With McCain victorious in his Tuesday primary, he now turns to face Kirkpatrick - a battle-tested, three-term House lawmaker. But though her centrist-leaning brand of politics is a good fit for a red state, her future will likely be decided by more sweeping forces. Namely, whether an anti-Trump
 wave materializes and Hillary Clinton wins a state that a Democrat hasn't won since 1996." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=60d783a874ee71732c0fe18bb09ea522976d41beac3db397b6b9ccded651f1c0

FIRST IN SCORE - NEA Advocacy Fund out with new ad attacking Ayotte: The National Education Association's super PAC is out with a new TV going after GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire. "New Hampshire college students are packing their backpacks and heading back to school," the ad's narrator says. "And thanks to Kelly Ayotte, along with the textbooks and pencils, many students are carrying more student-loan debt. Ayotte voted to cut Pell grants and to raise student loan interest rates, because she sides with special interests looking out for their own bottom line, not our kids." The super PAC is spending $1.2 million to air the ad, according to an FEC filing. Watch the ad: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e24aba44603531a64f5e057a8125090de9c9287ed6146c005b8c01612072b1c

- Democrat Maggie Hassan, meanwhile, is out with a new TV ad of her own touting her record as governor. Watch the ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e24aba44603531a610cccc049be3c2a8d6ce69676c637c025aca724e85d580f

NEW THIS MORNING - Curbelo emphasizes bipartisan bona fides in first TV ad: GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo, who's facing a tough reelection race to hang onto his South Florida district, is going up with his first TV ad today. The ad features Curbelo's young children and strikes an aggresively bipartisan note. "For Washington politicians, party always comes first and solutions last," Curbelo says. "That's not me. When my party's been wrong, I've said it. And I'm always willing to reach across the aisle for education, jobs and a stronger middle class." The ad is running on broadcast, on cable and online. Watch the ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=5e24aba44603531a95147acb8e59120ab0dcfe6513dcd704dffaddd8c83da44d

OFF THE AIR - TV station pulls ad attacking Mills in MN-08: A Minnesota TV station has pulled a House Majority PAC ad attacking Republican Stewart Mills from the airwaves after Republicans complained the ad was inaccurate. The ad featured a clip of Mills, who's challenging Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan, saying that it's "personally offensive" when people complain the wealthy aren't paying enough in taxes. But Mills' comments were spliced together from a longer speech. The move was first reported by The Star Tribune. Watch the ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=60d783a874ee7173efdb7da7675a57d7a90b5edce393fb5a9f97b3861e019a31

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Trump promises wall and massive deportation program," by POLITICO's Nolan D. McCaskill: Donald Trump on Wednesday squashed any speculation that he might soften his immigration position to reach new voters in the final stretch of the 2016 campaign, delivering a hawkish, hardline, and true-to-his-roots border platform and vowing that on Day One of his administration, the United States would launch a mammoth deportation program and begin construction of a wall." After meeting with Mexico's president, Trump "flew to Arizona and not only renewed his pledge that America's southern neighbor would fund an impenetrable, beautiful border wall but said it would be built in
 'record time' and at a 'reasonable price.' 'We will build a great wall along the southern border - and Mexico will pay for the wall," Trump said. "100 percent. They don't know it yet, but they're gonna pay for the wall.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=60d783a874ee7173c87516b9b92fadb0dd88e2863202a6caf2303bd42444f68f

- "Several Hispanic Trump surrogates reconsider support," by POLITICO's Katie Glueck: "Several major Latino surrogates for Donald Trump are reconsidering their support for him following the Republican nominee's hardline speech on immigration Wednesday night. Jacob Monty, a member of Trump's National Hispanic Advisory Council, has resigned, and Alfonso Aguilar, the president of the Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles, said in an interview that he is 'inclined' to pull his support. 'I was a strong supporter of Donald Trump when I believed he was going to address the immigration problem realistically and compassionately,' said Monty, a Houston attorney who has aggressively made the
 Latino case for Trump. 'What I heard today was not realistic and not compassionate.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=60d783a874ee717320114dadc5276b66cc723af53fc5dddb6f06e0e73856ae80

- "Trump's Florida ground game lags as GOP rides to his rescue," by Bloomberg Politics' Jennifer Jacobs and Kevin Cirilli: "How many of the 24 field offices that Team Trump said in early August they'd open this month in Florida are now up and running? None yet, according to Republican officials in the state.The Republican presidential nominee has one of his campaign's weakest ground games in his most crucial swing state, several political insiders and donors told Bloomberg Politics. Now, some Republicans are worried it's getting too late to recover, with vote-by-mail ballots going out starting in late September and Democrats pledging a big push in early voting." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=60d783a874ee717328aaf4075307e96d70d4fe7968dd21db88bbc6a4bf2fe76f

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I actually feel better than I've felt in quite some time." - Rep. Cresent Hardy (R-Nev.), who is back on the campaign trail after suffering a minor heart attack on Sunday. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=60d783a874ee7173bd0a8bbf909520562c62cb2708bb7ab5e6facd8be4c60e10

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