Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: New ad movement in Florida, Ohio Senate races — Democrats tout internal polling in KS-03 — Joe Miller rides again (as a Libertarian)
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 07 Sep 2016 08:02:09 -0600

By Elena Schneider | 09/07/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard and Theodoric Meyer

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

NEW THIS A.M. - LIBRE Initiative backs Rubio with first-ever ad directly urging election of a candidate: The Koch Brothers-backed Hispanic conservative nonprofit is endorsing GOP Sen. Marco Rubio in Florida's Senate race and spending $700,000 on broadcast television and digital ads praising Rubio and attacking GOP Rep. Patrick Murphy. The television spots will be in English, while the digital spots will run in both English and Spanish. "In Congress, Patrick Murphy voted to send our tax dollars to special interests and backed laws favoring his family business and political friends," a narrator says. "Marco Rubio understands our needs. Voting for reform, lower taxes, smarter spending,
 fighting against taxpayer giveaways to big insurance companies." The group's field program will also encourage Latino voters to back Rubio. Watch the ad here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=eb8b69a7071c3621e4b7087ea6be6a4c39019f771dbacce401a2ee0c5be9eddb

- MEANWHILE - DSCC delays TV investment in Florida by one week - The DSCC canceled its Florida ad buy from Sept. 20 through Sept. 26, according to two sources tracking the media spending, and will use the money to bolster its advertising later, an official said. The DSCC's advertising will now start on Sept. 27, although Senate Majority PAC, a super PAC with ties to Democratic leadership in the Senate, will still begin its buy on Sept. 13. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=eb8b69a7071c3621ef5227e091d020d1c4f0868c531376339731121f5fac82a6

- More Democratic cancellations hit Ohio Senate: "Senate Majority PAC has canceled another $3 million in Ohio ad reservations, as Democratic outside groups continue pulling money from the state, where GOP Sen. Rob Portman has healthy leads over Democrat Ted Strickland in public polls. The group's advertising, which had already been pushed back to Sept. 20 instead of starting earlier this month, will now start three weeks later on Oct. 11." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=eb8b69a7071c36212d363d51dd69739c1cd766a2f700f08896dc66b5e315fc18

ICYMI - "Party ad blitz kicks off fall House battle," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer and Elena Schneider: "Right on cue, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the National Republican Congressional Committee, and a major Democratic super PAC hit TV with five attack ads the day after Labor Day, kicking off the fall battle for some of the country's most competitive House races. The DCCC ads, which are running on local TV but have not been publicly released by the committee, hit Republican nominees in two open swing seats in Arizona and Nevada. The NRCC's ads attack Democrats challenging two vulnerable incumbents, Reps. Bruce Poliquin of Maine and Cresent Hardy of Nevada. And
 House Majority PAC ... is on the air with its own ad attacking the GOP nominee for an open swing seat in upstate New York." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=eb8b69a7071c362174040d62f57c2195d2e46feaefa9a6207dde32b65fb5e638

Days until the 2016 election: 62.

Days until the New Hampshire and Delaware congressional primaries: 6.

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POLLING IN THE DEEP - Democrat Jay Sidie releases internal poll in KS-03: GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder leads the largely unknown Sidie 49 percent to 37 percent, in results similar to Yoder's own internal. But Sidie's campaign points to Donald Trump and Gov. Sam Brownback's unpopularity, in a district that typically leans Republican, as signs that the race is primed to move in Democrats' direction. Just 18 percent of district voters view Brownback favorably, while 70 percent view him unfavorably. Meanwhile, Trump trails Hillary Clinton by 14 points, 45 percent to 31 percent. (Mitt Romney won the district 54 percent to 44 percent in 2012.) Democrats hold a slim 3-point lead in a generic congressional
 ballot. "This district is emblematic of Republicans' struggles this year with college-educated voters - especially in suburban areas," the memo reads. GBA Strategies surveyed 400 likely voters by phone from Aug. 28-30, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. Read the full polling memo: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=eb8b69a7071c362156b8bba28146c81377864c089885e21f1989385e2b5e55dd

FIRST IN SCORE - Democrat Evan Bayh out with a new TV ad: In the Indiana Senate race, former senator is hitting GOP Rep. Todd Young for "[choosing] the Tea Party over Indiana jobs" in an ad that will run on broadcast and cable stations statewide, part of a buy announced last month. "Republican Sen. Dick Lugar and Evan Bayh worked together to save our auto jobs, but Todd Young joined the Tea Party, attacking the plan and he called saving 100,000 Hoosier jobs 'a waste,'" the ad's narrator says. Watch the ad here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=eb8b69a7071c36214c560d0559d3a7ceb01b4603f5512cc383369d6649a5c465 

FIRST IN SCORE - McGinty's first fall TV ad hits Toomey on guns: Democrat Katie McGinty is out with her first ad of the fall, attacking one of GOP Sen. Pat Toomey's perceived strengths: gun control. The ad opens with news footage of the massacre in San Bernandino. "After this tragedy, Pat Toomey had the chance to ban suspected terrorists from buying guns. He voted against closing this loophole for terrorists and with the gun lobby," a male narrator says. The final 15 seconds of the spot feature McGinty speaking direct to camera: "We have to do everything in our power to keep guns away from terrorists who threaten our way of life," she says. The ad is airing in the Philadelphia market
 starting on Thursday: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=eb8b69a7071c3621109c7bb5aae17d48b3becf00f56ef3c371a932237aab9f73

- Toomey spot hits back: Toomey's latest spot praises the Republican as someone who "looks out for the middle class," while saying "Katie McGinty's liberal agenda" means "higher taxes on every Pennsylvanian." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=eb8b69a7071c3621a3f5d9211a12e61f43a394dd33f06265202728821d721915

FIRST IN SCORE - Planned Parenthood Votes releases new digital ads in Nevada Senate: In its joint half-million buy with EMILY's List WOMEN VOTE!, Planned Parenthood Votes is releasing its two new ads that attack GOP Rep. Joe Heck for votes to defund Planned Parenthood clinics because he's "a Washington politician before he's a Nevada physician," one ad says. In another ad, a doctor says Heck "doesn't vote like a doctor, he votes like a Washington Republican." The ads will reach 300,000 voters in the state, per a memo from the group. Watch "Terrible" here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=02c1e1d1205d15df012910d60ec92cc02ff4aadbbd51b17369c21ee56ae50989 Watch "Dangerous" here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=02c1e1d1205d15df5ab50a50a2893cae411237f484a118e535341cc5bda36854 

DATA GURU - "Hillary Clinton's 'Invisible Guiding Hand,'" by POLITICO's Shane Goldmacher: "To understand [Elan] Kriegel's role is to understand how Clinton has run her campaign - precise and efficient, meticulous and effective, and, yes, at times, more mathematical than inspirational. Top Clinton advisers say almost no major decision is made in Brooklyn without first consulting Kriegel. He was one of her first hires and is among her highest- paid, and yet he remains virtually unknown outside the cloistered community of political number-crunchers. 'I can't think of anybody who has as much impact as Elan who has as little name recognition with the national press,' said Stu Trevelyan, the CEO
 of NGP VAN, which manages the voter file used by every major Democratic campaign, and who has worked with Kriegel for years." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=eb8b69a7071c3621c2c82494e274aab6619479feafdc8840d05d64500812fcb7

ON THE RECORD - Campaign Pro Q&A with former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton: Bolton's super PAC spent $3 million backing three Senate candidates in 2014, and one cycle later, the group is poised to match and surpass that outside spending in key Republican races. The super PAC announced Tuesday that it's dropping $1 million on targeted digital advertising in North Carolina, a similar strategy it deployed in New Hampshire and Nevada already. Bolton spoke with Campaign Pro about his PAC's fall priorities and possible future spending. The interview has been edited and condensed for clarity. 

- Q: Why the focus on digital? What did the digital buys in 2014 teach you for how to do it in 2016? A: A factor that distinguishes us is that we buy almost no broadcast TV. Almost everything we do is digital and social media communications because, one, it's the way of the future, and two, it's much more cost effective and three, we want to catch up with Democrats on digital. ...In digital ads, I send you an email, and I know whether you've opened, clicked on the ad and how long you watched it. Read more here: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=eb8b69a7071c362143068b227fd4eacee7ed9e53d0236365a0c646fe8f299813

FIRST IN SCORE - Restoration PAC hires consulting firm for Colorado Senate race: The national security-focused group spent $800,000 in ads this summer to boost Republican Darryl Glenn, and they're bringing on Clear Creek Strategies as the group ramps up for the fall, even as other outside groups pull out of the race. "We plan to spend significant resources in coming weeks highlighting Senator Bennet's weak and dangerous views on national security," said Dan Curry, a spokesman for the group. 

FAMILIAR FACES - Joe Miller to join Senate race, via the Alaska Dispatch News: "Two-time U.S. Senate candidate Joe Miller will make another run at the office this year, he said Tuesday, trying again to unseat U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski, this time as a Libertarian. Miller will take the place of Cean Stevens as the Libertarian candidate on the Nov. 8 general election ballot after Stevens withdrew." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=eb8b69a7071c36214d60a0afbf6bbe1e808e2ea5821b3d3b9f5ec9a97109785e 

UNUSUAL BEDFELLOWS - "NRA endorses Democrat for Missouri governor," by POLITICO's Nick Gass: "The National Rifle Association's political arm today endorsed Missouri Democratic gubernatorial candidate Chris Koster over his Republican rival Eric Greitens, touting the current state attorney general's 'proven record in fighting to preserve the Second Amendment.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=eb8b69a7071c3621fe8b2d2b4268493f027d4baf33c011f6747f1f8a04d2ca93

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "The most powerful woman in GOP politics," by Kenneth P. Vogel and Ben Schreckinger: "Leaning on the fortune amassed by her father, Rebekah Mercer has steered her family's rapid rise over the course of just a few years from the conservative fringe to the white hot center of the most dramatic election season in years. ... But the family's rise, facilitated by an increasingly aggressive network of Mercer-backed institutions and operatives, has prompted worry within the GOP about an attempted takeover, and questions from across the political spectrum about what the Mercers intend to do with the influence they've purchased." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=eb8b69a7071c36219112007870ca6d9934a1a3c48d2d867846cc28f0b7187cf5

- "Clinton turns off autopilot," by POLITICO's Annie Karni in Tampa, Fla.: "Hillary Clinton was happy to let Donald Trump keep a tight grip on the steering wheel of the election when he seemed, daily, to be careening into oncoming traffic. But with her opponent apparently stabilizing - a CNN/ORC poll released Tuesday showed Trump leading nationally by 2 percentage points - Clinton is trying to seize control of the car again. Twice in two days, the Democratic presidential nominee sauntered to the back of her new campaign plane to talk to the reporters now traveling with her - and both days she was armed with a topic that would drive the news and needle Trump in an apparent new effort to
 enter the fray rather than hide from it." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=eb8b69a7071c3621f5c5782c1914d0404d49fef18375fe55ada3ddf37ff20750 

- "Get ready for a wild polling ride," by POLITICO's Steven Shepard: "The nine-week, post-Labor Day sprint to Election Day began Tuesday with a muddle of new poll results that confirm only one thing: Hillary Clinton no longer owns the commanding lead she held a month ago. ...While volatility at this stage of the campaign isn't unexpected, the latest polling data point to an stunningly unstable election environment, unlike any in recent decades." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=eb8b69a7071c3621d4f751d097ddfdb6c340706cc34f7c007d637eab70ca3df2 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I don't know why, I really don't know why." - Trump, asked by Fox News' Bill O'Reilly whether his birther crusade in 2011 may have harmed his current outreach to black voters. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=eb8b69a7071c36215b86a4cacd72817fa1f1c6ea774ef4355a488cbc9b12e33a

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