Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by Spot-On Ads: Clinton diagnosed with pnemounia — House battleground map expands under Trump pressure — Huge Senate, House polling roundup
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2016 08:01:57 -0600
List-Id: <1376319_5822731.xt.local>

By Elena Schneider | 09/12/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard, Theodoric Meyer, Maggie Severns 

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

BAD DAY IN BROOKLYN - "Clinton scare shakes up the race," by POLITICO's Glenn Thrush, Kenneth P. Vogel and Annie Karni: "Hillary Clinton's health - long the obsession of conspiracy theorists - emerged Sunday as a legitimate campaign issue after Clinton nearly swooned and stumbled at a Sept. 11 commemoration, underscoring the sense that that summer's sure-thing candidate is teetering at the worst possible moment. The incident, captured on cellphone video showing the wobbly Democratic candidate being lifted into the vehicle by her aides after leaving a memorial service at the site of the World Trade Center attack, comes after two weeks of tightening polls that have seen Trump close to within
 striking distance nationally and in some battleground states. And it capped off arguably the worst 48 hours of her general-election campaign that began when she called Trump supporters "deplorables," a rare gaffe by a fastidiously stage-managed candidate." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6b0bd434b7c741f6b7c0a568a3ce649ddef6ff0fb9532cebc5f6ab47217d8400 

A WHOLE NEW WORLD - "Trump expands House battleground map," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: "Democrats seeking control of the House are pushing into new battleground districts, exposing vulnerable Republicans in diverse suburban areas that have been safe GOP seats for nearly a generation, according to a POLITICO analysis of Census demographic data, internal polling from both parties, and TV advertising data. Longtime GOP strongholds like Orange County, Calif. and suburbs of Orlando, Minneapolis, and Kansas City look set to have competitive House races for the first time in decades. Indeed, Donald Trump has accelerated decade-long changes in both parties' coalitions, repulsing minority
 voters while driving more college-educated whites out of their traditional home in the GOP. Democrats - who would need a whopping 30 seats to win the House - are already targeting at least 18 of the 60 GOP districts with the highest share of college-educated white voters, many of which also have large numbers of non-white voters, too."

- "The average district in the emerging House battlefield ... is 10 percentage points less white than in 2006, and the white population in those seats is about 5 percentage points more college-educated than a decade ago. In other words, the House battlegrounds of 2016 feature both a larger Democratic base and a bigger pool of swing voters loosened from the Republican Party by Trump. The question for House Democrats is whether enough new diverse and high-education districts are on the map this year for them to leverage Trump into a serious challenge for the 30 seats they need. Even as he struggles elsewhere, Trump remains startlingly strong (and Hillary Clinton very weak) in blue-collar
 districts that have traditionally been House majority-makers - from northeastern Wisconsin to Michigan's Upper Peninsula to upstate New York - which could make it tougher for Democrats to play offense there." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6b0bd434b7c741f60cc26ecaed1a64cdb0271155fe6656318e1909ff7ff9d5ed

POLL LIKE THERE'S NO TOMORROW - "Poll: Clinton, Trump tied in 4 battleground states," by POLITICO's Rebecca Morin: "Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are in gridlock in four battleground states, according to new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls released Sunday. The four states are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. ... For the [Nevada] Senate race, which has become a key state with Senate minority leader Harry Reid retiring, Republican Joe Heck takes the lead, with 47 percent to Democratic candidate Catherine Cortez Masto with 45 percent. Among registered voters, Cortez Masto is up 1 point with 46 percent to 45 percent. ...Incumbent GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte is leading her
 Democratic challenger Maggie Hassan in the Senate poll with 52 percent to 44 percent. Ayotte's lead shrinks by one point among registered voters, with 51 percent to 44 percent. The senate race in New Hampshire could likely determine which party takes control of the Senate." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6b0bd434b7c741f6b4c3b78790e59db1f97adb156edaf754e911bd6bae89ebe4

- MORE POLLING DATA - Senate Republicans score leads in Quinnipiac surveys: A set of new Senate race polls from Quinnipiac University contain good news for Republicans, with GOP Sens. Rob Portman, Richard Burr and Marco Rubio all leading their Democratic opponents. ...The Republican senators all ran ahead of Donald Trump in their states." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6b0bd434b7c741f6777776ed55c57c1510cbb376d434ccd24efd806ebd000edf

- "Closing Time" in Indiana?... "Democrat Evan Bayh leads Republican Rep. Todd Young 44 percent to 40 percent in a new WTHR/Howey Politics Indiana Poll, signaling an increasingly tight race for Indiana's open Senate seat. This is the closest poll of the Senate race so far. Bayh entered the race in July and had a significant lead over Young, who has not run a statewide campaign before, in numerous internal polls that Democrats released."

CLIP AND SAVE - "Twenty House polls released since the conventions," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: "There's been almost no public polling in battleground House races so far this year. But Republican and Democratic candidates, committees and outside groups have conducted dozens of polls since the conventions. We've collected 20 of them. Together, they give a rough snapshot of the current House landscape."

- The rundown includes new surveys in CA-49 and NY-22: GOP Rep. Darrell Issa's campaign found him up 52 percent to 38 percent in his district, while Donald Trump had a narrow 39 percent to 37 percent edge (in a district Mitt Romney carried comfortably) in the Public Opinion Strategies poll. In NY-22, independent Martin Babinec's poll from John Zogby Strategies showed Republican Claudia Tenney out in front at 36 percent, with Babinec taking 20 percent and Democrat Kim Myers taking 18 percent. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6b0bd434b7c741f6ae716d5729095c5dea5f964eb7daed2af9ef46304e28136a 

Days until the 2016 election: 57.

Days until the New Hampshire and Delaware congressional primaries: 1.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about Beyonce's back-up dancers: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer, @maggieseverns.

FIRST IN SCORE - Americans for Responsible Solutions hits Ayotte on support for gun lobby: The new digital ad riffs off of a recent TV ad from Sen. Kelly Ayotte, who used footage of her batting "for New Hampshire." But in the digital ad, Americans for Responsible Solutions says Ayotte is going "to bat for the gun lobby," as she "voted to keep the background check loophole that allows criminals and the dangerously mentally ill to get guns - not once, not twice, but three times." The ad is part of a six-figure digital buy in the state, per a statement from the group. Watch the ad here. 

NEW THIS MORNING - League of Conservation Voters expanding grassroots program: LCV is adding volunteers to its on-the-ground efforts in three new states - Illinois, Nevada and Virginia - to help elect Hillary Clinton, along with Democratic Senate candidates, Tammy Duckworth and Catherine Cortez Masto. The LCV is now active in 11 states, spending $1.8 million on the program. 

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TV TIMEOUT - "Defining the opponent: Campaign Pro's ad roundup," by Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6b0bd434b7c741f6ef3a1ff0e5d11f8ab85c147248443ceb11bca667c49d3ab8 

AND A FEW MORE FROM THE WEEKEND - In Pennsylvania ... The National Republican Senatorial Committee is hitting Democrat Katie McGinty, "who as Department of Environmental Protection Secretary, funneled millions of dollars to the organization that employed her husband," per a memo from the group. The ad started airing in the Philadelphia market on Saturday. Watch the ad here. 

- In Nevada ... Republican Joe Heck started airing his fourth TV ad on Saturday and will run through Sept. 18 with $467,000 backing it. The ad describes a nation in crisis. "There was a time when we could trust our leaders. But today, politicians are only serving themselves, resulting in a rigged economy, weakened national security and a divided nation," the ad's narrator says, before highlighting Heck's military credentials. The ad ends with the tagline: "Solve the problem, send a soldier." Watch the ad here. 

CANDID ASSESSMENT - The Columbus Post-Dispatch reported that Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee executive director Tom Lopach said at a private meeting that Democrat Ted Strickland "could only win 'if a wave comes' in, a reference to Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton winning by a strong margin in Ohio. When asked why Ohio is not among the likely states for Democrats to win, Lopach reportedly replied, 'Portman has run a damn fine race.' 'The rest, I'll have to tell you over a drink,' Lopach added, the source said." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6b0bd434b7c741f682c7eaa68ef7a44ef00442f968a5a9b0fe41641f11721d97 

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "How 9/11 Paved the Way for Trump v. Clinton," by POLITICO Magazine's Laura Reston: "For decades, what we are witnessing in 2016 would have been unthinkable: Two New Yorkers running head to head for president of the United States. Hillary Clinton - a former New York senator who lives in Chappaqua and based her campaign in hipster Brooklyn - is competing against a fast-talking real estate mogul from Queens whose life is almost a parody of New York glitz and excess. ... What happened? In many ways America has changed, becoming more urban and polyglot; in that sense, New York now resembles the rest of the nation more than it used to. But something far more important
 happened as well, exactly 15 years ago. When the planes hit the Twin Towers on September 11, 2001, and as the nation grieved the thousands dead in lower Manhattan, New York City underwent a transformation, both on the ground and in American eyes." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6b0bd434b7c741f6f9248322d04992ef811d129382810d36fc404a6311d9ed33 

- "Senate Democrats urge Clinton to step up," by POLITICO's Gabriel Debenedetti: "Hillary Clinton's race for the White House is increasingly focused around four of the battleground states - Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. And for Democrats trying to pick up Senate seats elsewhere, that might mean trouble. Party operatives in both Washington and around the country are wringing their hands over the expected absence of their headliner in the final 60 days of this contest in states such as New Hampshire and Missouri, increasingly nervous that Clinton's coattails might not be long enough to reach their far-afield races if she's not spending time and money in those states." 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6b0bd434b7c741f648ea02f59d19d4c568d2296c12569ee0371d0cbaaba9d2e0 

- "On 9/11, Trump noted on TV that he now owned the Financial District's tallest building," by The Washington Post's Jenna Johnson: "On Sept. 11, 2001, Donald Trump called a New York television station to share what he had seen from his skyscraper apartment and what he had heard from associates closer to the World Trade Center. At one point during the nearly 10-minute interview, Trump mentioned that he was now the owner of the tallest building in the Financial District." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6b0bd434b7c741f69ccf7c999aeed75f8d951c5549deb1f5c01b4752f3d995c1 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I'm probably one of the most politically astute people in any business industry, let alone my own industry," said Democrat Randy Perkins to The Washington Free Beacon, explaining his disaster clean-up business. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6b0bd434b7c741f65c9705e6c3713aa6c428d98e50896c6e09c6001e514df27e 

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