Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by Spot-On Ads: FINAL PRIMARY DAY: Guinta tries to hang on in NH-01 — Previewing New Hampshire's gubernatorial race and DE-AL — Senate Democrats brace for brutal 2018 map
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2016 08:02:03 -0600
List-Id: <1376319_5826929.xt.local>

By Theodoric Meyer | 09/13/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard, Elena Schneider and Maggie Severns

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

PRIMARY PREVIEW - "Guinta attempts to avoid defeat in New Hampshire Tuesday," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: "Rep. Frank Guinta's political career looked like it was over last year. Improbably, he may manage to extend it during New Hampshire's Tuesday primaries - which has Republicans concerned about keeping a district that has boomeranged between the parties for a decade. Sen. Kelly Ayotte and other top New Hampshire Republicans called on Guinta to resign over a campaign finance scandal 16 months ago, but Guinta's primary challenger, Rich Ashooh, remains largely unknown. ... 'I'm not going to sugarcoat it - I think it's going to be a tight race,' said Simon Thomson, a longtime GOP
 operative and the treasurer of Granite Voices PAC, one of the super PACs supporting Ashooh." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d50390b75316d48eef139f1e7ef736cbd85baa487ee9293ed5289800939266d3

- "New Hampshire gubernatorial race to kick into high gear after primary," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "New Hampshire's sleepy gubernatorial primary will come to an end Tuesday night - to be quickly replaced by an eight-week sprint to Election Day, with both parties' big-money committees getting ready to pour money into electing the state's next chief executive. ... Yet it's still unclear just who that money will back: Democrats have a three-way primary Tuesday between Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern, former state Securities Director Mark Connolly and former Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand. On the Republican side, Executive Councilor Chris Sununu and Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas
 have been slugging it out, with state legislators Jeanie Forrester and Frank Edelblut also in the race." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d50390b75316d48eab50005f3b4702acc05bf9ebb989fdfd03c8feee9c1064b2

- Blunt Rochester favored in race for open House seat in Delaware: Former state Labor Secretary Lisa Blunt Rochester, Marine veteran Sean Barney and state Sen. Bryan Townsend are competing in the safe-seat Democratic primary. (Democratic Rep. John Carney is running for governor.) Blunt Rochester, who would be the first woman and first African-American elected from Delaware, has raised the most money - just under $750,000, including about $180,000 in personal loans - and has benefited from $190,000 in support from EMILY's List. Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.) recorded a robocall for her that went out last night. Barney, who has the backing of VoteVets and has earned plaudits for talking openly about
 his struggle with PTSD, is viewed as her staunchest competition.

JUST 784 DAYS TO GO - "Democrats brace against potential 2018 Senate 'disaster,'" by Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns: "Red-state Democrats and party strategists are already nervously looking past 2016, when they are angling to recapture the Senate, to the 2018 elections, hoping against hope that their party isn't setting itself up for a titanic midterm backlash that could flip control of the Senate for a third time in three elections. As difficult as the 2016 Senate map has been for Republicans, who had to defend numerous blue- and purple-state seats and could lose their majority, Democrats' 2018 map looks practically unnavigable. The party starts with five ruby-red seats to defend: Indiana,
 Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia. Then, Democrats have a slew of Senate seats up in traditional swing states, including Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin. If he doesn't become vice president, Tim Kaine will also face reelection in closely divided Virginia in 2018."

- "Senators are already laying groundwork for 2018 ... Montana Sen. Jon Tester, who is chairing the DSCC this election, frequently rings Montana Democrats from his tractor to check in on Denise Juneau, the state education superintendent who is running for Congress against GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke - Montana's lone House member and a possible Tester challenger in 2018. ... North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp did a round of August meetings with local farmers on the Farm Bill, which doesn't expire until 2018 but is hot on the agricultural community's minds because of low crop prices." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d50390b75316d48eaabe6929e07f95e4a06becbd7e54fd71afd87f808f99a658

THAT'S THE TICKET - "GOP polls: North Carolina Republicans worry about 'McCrory drag,'" by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "The ticket-topping candidate concerning [North Carolina Republicans] most is GOP Gov. Pat McCrory. Democrat Roy Cooper has put more distance between himself and McCrory in recent public polls, compared to the tighter presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Now, four internal polls of key suburban state legislative races in North Carolina, which were conducted for a Republican group and obtained by POLITICO, show the same thing, including local candidates sagging against Democratic opponents while McCrory and the policies associated with him
 suffer." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d50390b75316d48ebd794cf3786d74dae279f680ba68ca800251e227ac75226b

Days until the 2016 election: 56.

Days until the first presidential debate: 13.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally give advice to NFL fans: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

MO MONEY MO PROBLEMS - "DSCC to start ads in North Carolina and Missouri," by POLITICO's Burgess Everett: The DSCC "is spending $2.5 million in North Carolina to wrest a seat from GOP Sen. Richard Burr and $1.5 million [in Missouri] to knock off Republican Sen. Roy Blunt. The cash infusion for television and possibly digital ads comes from the DSCC's independent expenditure unit ... Republicans have become increasingly concerned about North Carolina: Two weeks ago, Senate Leadership Fund announced it would spend $8.1 million to defend Burr with TV ads starting Tuesday. As part of the shift in advertising, Democrats are also scaling back their advertising in Florida by $700,000 during the
 last week of September, from about $1 million to $300,000. While GOP Sen. Marco Rubio holds an edge there over Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy, Democrats said that Senate Majority PAC will provide more than adequate air cover for Murphy that week and still believe the race is winnable." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d50390b75316d48ed1d9cefcc991d50bd2270d43be87d414541cf2d87e69218e

IF IT'S TUESDAY, IT'S AD DAY - What to watch from House outside groups as more ads go live today: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d50390b75316d48e575ea8259287c58ea858cea4a1321623b99eac4f64a50081

** A message from Spot-On Ads: How do you buy online ads for your campaign or advocacy effort? Or don't you? Spot-On Ads and Analytics wants to know what you think. Help by answering our brief survey and enter to win a case of California wine (guaranteed delivery by Election Day). Click here for details. **

A SAMPLING - FIRST IN SCORE - New House Majority PAC ad attacks Blum in IA-01: House Majority PAC, the flagship Democratic super PAC in House races, is out with a new TV ad attacking Rep. Rod Blum of Iowa, one of the most vulnerable House Republicans. The ad accuses Blum of pushing "to privatize Social Security, risking seniors' guaranteed benefits on the stock market." The super PAC is spending more than $300,000 to air the ad in the Cedar Rapids market, along with a $53,000 digital buy. Watch the ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d50390b75316d48e9376f124a6cf6a77fb185d7626c857d256ef8d33b16b4789

- New Defending Main Street ad goes after Santarsiero in PA-08: The GOP super PAC Defending Main Street is on the air with its first ad of the general election, an attack ad targeting Democrat Steve Santarsiero, who's running for an open seat in the Philadelphia suburbs. The ad calls Santarsiero the "tax man" and features a riff reminiscent of the Beatles song of the same name. Sarah Chamberlain, who runs the super PAC, said it plans to run ads or put boots on the ground for four or five Republican challengers and candidates for open seats, including Santarsiero's opponent, Brian Fitzpatrick. But "the bulk of the money" will be spent defending the affiliated Republican Main Street
 Partnership's members, she said, more than a dozen of whom are facing competitive races. Watch the ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d50390b75316d48ebf963bed9a262c0cac27108a421cd7bb38af68b0a8f34206

- FIRST IN SCORE - Lindbeck airs first TV ad in AK-AL: Democrat Steve Lindbeck is out with his first TV ad, attacking GOP Rep. Don Young for refusing to try to stop a Louisiana company that contributed to his campaign from outsourcing Alaskan jobs. "The Don Young of 40 years ago would have fought like hell for those jobs," Lindbeck says. The campaign is spending $57,000 to air the ad in Anchorage, Fairbanks and Juneau. Watch the ad here.

- FIRST IN SCORE - Rep. Scott Peters out with his first TV ad: Democratic Rep. Scott Peters' campaign is hitting the air with his first ad, which features college students talking about how much student debt they have. "This is personal to me," Peters says in the ad, citing his own student loans. The ad will air on broadcast and cable stations in San Diego, starting Wednesday. Watch the ad here. 

SENATE SPENDING - ON THE RIGHT - LIBRE Initiative goes after Cortez Masto in Nevada: The LIBRE Initiative, the Koch-backed nonprofit that targets Hispanic voters, is paying for digital ads attacking Nevada Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto for failing to support Education Savings Accounts. The 30-second ad notes Latinos overwhelmingly back the program, but says Cortez Masto is siding with her "special interest friends" against the law. Watch the ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d50390b75316d48eeadfe7edeb50301a712b268ad3d7928e9fa5744e063c5a99

- ON THE LEFT - EMILY'S List spends $750,000 on anti-Toomey mailers: Women Vote!, EMILY's List's super PAC, is spending $750,000 on mailers attacking GOP Sen. Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania on abortion rights and Planned Parenthood. The "six-piece mail program is micro-targeted to persuadable voters in the Philadelphia suburbs and will reach over 240,000 households," the group said in a statement.

BERN, BABY, BERN - Sanders will campaign with Teachout in NY-19: Democrat Zephyr Teachout, who's running for an open swing seat in New York's Hudson Valley, will hold a rally with Bernie Sanders on Friday in New Paltz, N.Y., The Poughkeepsie Journal reports. Teachout is one of a handful of progressive House candidates Sanders endorsed during the primaries - but Teachout turned down an earlier Sanders offer to campaign with her ahead of the New York congressional primary. Sanders will also appear with Pennsylvania Senate candidate Katie McGinty on Friday in Pittsburgh. 

- Jones asks for investigation of election 'anomalies' in AZ-05: Andy Biggs leads Christine Jones by just 16 votes two weeks after the Republican primary to fill retiring GOP Rep. Matt Salmon's seat in Arizona. Now, Jones is asking Arizona Secretary of State Michele Reagan and Attorney General Mark Brnovich to investigate statistical "anomalies" in the vote count. Matt Roberts, a spokesman of the secretary of state's office, said Maricopa County would be recounting "each and every ballot that should be counted" starting today. "Our laws are set up for the courts to take on allegations such as these," Roberts wrote in an email. Here's the full letter: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d50390b75316d48e6c5078950fd4a577bd8ac268a888493046095ec122d81bdd

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Progressives draft staff blacklist for Clinton administration," by POLITICO's Edward-Isaac Dovere: "Still bruised by what they see as Barack Obama's betrayals and anxious that Hillary Clinton isn't really one of them, progressives are preparing to move hard and quickly to force her hand if she wins the White House. To start, progressive operatives say they've targeted two potential Clinton appointments-Tom Nides as chief of staff and Lael Brainard as Treasury secretary or trade representative-to lay down early markers against Clinton. Pick them, they warn, and progressives will punish her. Nides, who was one of Clinton's deputies at the State Department and is now
 back at Morgan Stanley, is 'out of central casting for the Wall Street revolving door,' said one of the people involved with the discussions." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d50390b75316d48e654287a5f9cb09af2d688e3269a490a3750d7f4366ff0004

- "Clinton's secrecy rankles Democrats," by POLITICO's Annie Karni: Hillary Clinton's explanation for why she kept her pneumonia diagnosis a secret "was reminiscent of the one she has used to dismiss questions about her unsanctioned private email server -- saying it was merely for convenience, and noting that other people did it, too.... 'People get ill every now and then, especially when you are under the stress they are under," said a former Clinton aide, of the presidential candidates. 'The bigger issue is whether she has been way too secretive about her medical issues - it adds to the whole backdrop that she's too secretive in general.'" http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d50390b75316d48e9d0506f34e0fffd0ec1ae653bbde207c26b321f20fecf200

- "Worried Republicans are pouring resources into North Carolina," by The Washington Post's Sean Sullivan: "After years of successfully holding off Democratic gains in this rapidly changing state, Republicans are scrambling to pour new resources into North Carolina in the face of unexpectedly close contests in the presidential and Senate races. ... Hillary Clinton and her allies have outspent Trump and groups supporting him 7 to 1 on television ads so far, and Chelsea Clinton will be in the state Tuesday to open the Democrats' 31st North Carolina campaign office. The coordinated Republican campaign to help Trump, by comparison, has no offices in North Carolina at all; the national party and
 Trump will open their first three locations later this week." http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d50390b75316d48e5678f1a85bc684455ac65d01ee85ac2925a89e7876dd395f

- On the one hand, that's the point. On the other, just slightly off message. Ohio Senate Democrat Ted Strickland said that Tim Kaine is "wonderfully prepared" to become president "if that ever became necessary" while introducing Kaine at a Monday rally. Here's video: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=0cb2dfb010aa97492da220e9539d286991f97d1a504529fee163a8bb4b5b9898

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Hillary is under no illusions that you want to have sex with her, or that she's going to seduce you, or out-think you." - Former Democratic Rep. Joe Garcia, he of viral ear-picking fame (and a FL-26 rematch with GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo), in video recorded by a GOP tracker. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d50390b75316d48ebea3112fd289eb4d4827fa4690091af58d27d84c1672d478

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