Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by Spot-On Ads: Human Rights Campaign defends Dold from Democratic attacks in IL-10 — GOP hopes to hold Senate rise — Another ad backing Kander hits the air in Missouri
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2016 08:02:53 -0600
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By Theodoric Meyer | 09/15/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard, Scott Bland and Maggie Severns

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

ILLINOIS IMBROGLIO - "Gay-rights group defends Dold from Democratic attacks in Illinois," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: "A leading gay-rights group is coming to GOP Rep. Bob Dold's defense in one of the nation's most important swing districts, shielding the Illinois congressman - who is among the Republican Party's most prominent supporters of LGBT rights in Washington - against a new Democratic attack ad casting him as anti-gay. The ad has highlighted a rare split between the Democratic Party and Human Rights Campaign, which has endorsed more than a dozen Democratic House candidates this year but just one Republican: Dold, whom the group backed in March."

- "Former Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider, Dold's opponent, and the DCCC began airing a TV ad Monday that attacks Dold ... 'Dold and the Republicans even said employees could be fired just for being gay,' the ad's narrator says. The DCCC's own public research dossier on Dold, though, notes that Dold backs the Employment Non-Discrimination Act, which would bar employers from discriminating on the basis of sexual orientation or gender identity, and was the first Republican to sign onto the Equality Act, a far-reaching gay-rights bill 'that would go beyond' ENDA. ... The Schneider campaign cites a 2010 radio interview as the evidence for its ad." Full story.

THE MAP - "GOP hopes of keeping Senate brighten with Trump," by POLITICO's Seung Min Kim and Burgess Everett: "After a summer of doom-and-gloom predictions that the Senate was all but lost, Republicans are in the midst of an upswing that's put them in better position to hang on than at any point since the 2014 midterms. The GOP has hit a gusher of money from outside groups, forcing Democrats to shift their campaign tactics in difficult races. A spate of recent polls show Republicans gaining or even jumping ahead in competitive states thought to be slipping away. And, above all, presidential winds have shifted unexpectedly in their favor. ... 'Yes, it's more challenging now than it once
 was,' Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin, the second-ranking Senate Democrat, said Wednesday. 'Our candidates, I think, are quality candidates and are going to win and give us the majority. But it's tougher now because of all this money.'" Full story.

- THE NUMBERS - CNN polls: Portman, Rubio lead in Ohio and Florida: GOP Sens. Rob Portman of Ohio and Marco Rubio of Florida, hold solid leads over their Democratic challengers in Ohio and Florida, according to new CNN polls in the two states. Portman is leading Democrat Ted Strickland, 58 percent to 37 percent, among likely voters. And in Florida, Rubio leads Democrat Patrick Murphy 54 percent to 43 percent. Both polls were conducted between Sept. 7 and Sept. 12 and have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Full results here.

- A Democratic poll gives Katie McGinty a narrow lead over GOP Sen. Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania: A new poll conducted for End Citizens United PAC, which has run ads against Toomey, has McGinty leading Toomey 47 percent to 42 percent among likely voters. The poll was conducted by GBA Strategies from Aug. 21-28 and surveyed 1,200 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Read the full polling memo here.

- THE MONEY - "Koch network plans shift in focus from TV to ground game in October," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "The Koch brothers' powerful network of conservative groups plans to stop airing television ads in early October and instead focus on get-out-the-vote efforts targeting 5 million persuadable voters in the final weeks of the 2016 Senate elections ... The eight states on the group's target list are Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin." Full story.

NEW THIS MORNING - Vote Vets going up with pro-Kander ad in Missouri: Vote Vets is out with a new ad in Missouri supporting Democrat Jason Kander and attacking GOP Sen. Roy Blunt on his record on veterans issues. "Jason Kander could have gone anywhere after law school. He chose here: Afghanistan. Now Roy Blunt is trying to smear his record," an Iraq war veteran says in the ad. "Well Senator, let's talk about your record. You lied to Missourians. You didn't level with us about your draft history. You even voted against increasing veterans benefits for guys like me. Jason Kander had our backs over there, now we've got his." Vote Vets is spending $400,000 to air ad in the Springfield market,
 which is going up as outside spending in Missouri swells. Watch the ad here. 

Days until the 2016 election: 54.

Days until the first presidential debate: 11.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about low battery anxiety: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

GOING ON OFFENSE - Slaughter launches attack ad in NY-25: Democratic Rep. Louise Slaughter of New York barely defeated Republican Mark Assini in 2014, and she isn't considered too vulnerable this time around. But she has already hit the air with a TV ad attacking Assini, who's running again. "Mark Assini's campaign is built from dangerous right-wing ideas," the ad's narrator says. Assini "is against common-sense gun laws," "would outlaw a woman's right to choose even when the mother's life is at risk," and "even called teaching evolution is our schools 'indoctrination.'" Watch the ad here.

** A message from Spot-On Ads: What data drives your online ad buy? Spot-On Ads and Analytics wants to know what you think. Help by answering our brief survey and enter to win a case of California wine (guaranteed delivery by Election Day). Click here for details. **

WAY DOWN-BALLOT - "Tough Phoenix sheriff may have new foe: George Soros," by The Associated Press' Jacques Billeaud: "[A] group linked to Soros ... started sending fliers to Phoenix-area voters two weeks ago, and a mailing last week accuses [Maricopa County Sheriff Joe] Arpaio of separating a mother from her child because of an unpaid traffic ticket, botching hundreds of sex crimes investigations and scaring immigrants so much that that they don't report crime. ... The new anti-Arpaio group, Maricopa Strong, registered in Arizona on Aug. 29, the day before Arpaio won his Republican primary against three opponents. It is not required to file a report detailing who made donations and spending
 until Sept. 29. But county records state Maricopa Strong's chairwoman is Whitney Tymas, a former public defense attorney in New York and Virginia prosecutor who serves as treasurer for ... Soros-funded" super PACs that have formed in different states to contest district attorney races. Full story here.

- A new internal poll from the progressive Project New America has Arpaio behind Democratic challenger Paul Penzone, who's leading 53 percent to 44 percent.

- Soros is also investing in a new DA race, backing Democrat Darius Pattillo in Henry County, Ga. - which prompted Pattillo's Republican general election opponent to withdraw and forfeit the race this week, the Henry Herald reported. "After consulting with my family and trusted advisers, it has become clear that we will most likely not be successful against an unlimitedly financed opponent, and I refuse to put my family through what has transpired in other Soros-backed elections," McCord told the paper. Full story.

- Down-ballot on the GOP side: The Republican State Leadership Committee released its "16 in '16" list Wednesday, featuring a first round of female and minority state-level candidates to watch. The list includes 13 state legislative candidates as well as two contenders for lieutenant governor and one for secretary of state. More here.

MORE ADS - NRCC debuts new ads in FL-18 and NE-02: The NRCC is out with new TV ads in two of the seats it's hoping to pick up in the fall. The first one backs Brian Mast, an Army veteran who's running for the Florida seat that Rep. Patrick Murphy is vacating to run for Senate. "Service over self - that's the Brian Mast story," the ad's narrator says as Mast, who lost both legs in Afghanistan, jogs through the streets using his prosthetics. "And it's not just the sacrifices he made on the battlefield." The ad touts Mast's commitment to keeping the Indian River Lagoon "pristine for future generations" and "working to expand economic opportunities to create local jobs." Watch the ad here.

- The second ad attacks Rep. Brad Ashford of Nebraska, who's one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the House. "Brad Ashford is a master at speaking politician," the ad's narrator says. "In this ad" - an Ashford ad pops up - "he said he wants to keep the prison at Gitmo. But when he votes, he votes to empty the prison at Gitmo, sending the terrorist suspects back to the battlefield." It's the NRCC's third ad in recent weeks attacking Ashford. Watch the ad here.

ONE ELECTORAL VOTE AT A TIME - Dems tout registration gains in NE-02 after GOP fares well in ME-02 poll: On Wednesday, we noted a new survey of Maine that showed Donald Trump with a solid lead in the state's 2nd District, an Electoral College battleground as well as a district House Democrats hope to win back. Meanwhile, Democrats are making gains in Nebraska's 2nd District, too, where they hope to protect Rep. Brad Ashford and maybe snag an electoral vote of their own. The Nebraska Democratic Party announced that it has registered 6,000 voters and retaken the registration lead from Republicans in Omaha's Douglas County.

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "How Hillary Clinton's allies are embracing her mistake," by POLITICO's Edward-Isaac Dovere and Gabriel Debenedetti: "Top Hillary Clinton backers want to know what percentage of Donald Trump's supporters will he concede are deplorable - 20 percent? 10? How about just David Duke? Forget Clinton's apology for casting half of her opponent's supporters into a 'basket of deplorables.' Now her team is looking to own this. Some of the Democrat's most vocal supporters say Trump's decision to repeatedly attack her for this off-the-cuff (although not new) remark has given her supporters and surrogates opportunities to rebut with examples of his racially charged rhetoric and
 rallies." Full story.

- "Bill's glitzy birthday bash raises money for Clinton Foundation," by POLITICO's Kenneth P. Vogel and Gabriel Debenedetti: "Even as the Clintons are touting plans to distance themselves from their foundation and limit its fundraising if Hillary Clinton is elected president, they're planning one last glitzy fundraising bash on Friday to belatedly celebrate Bill Clinton's 70th birthday. The fundraiser is being held at the Rainbow Room, a fine-dining restaurant on the 65th floor of a Manhattan skyscraper. Plans called for performances by Wynton Marsalis, Jon Bon Jovi and Barbra Streisand, according to people briefed on the planning. They said that major donors are being asked to give
 $250,000 to be listed as a chair for the party, $100,000 to be listed a co-chair and $50,000 to be listed as a vice-chair." Full story.

- The New Hampshire Union Leader's editorial board is endorsing Libertarian Gary Johnson, making it the first time the paper hasn't endorsed the Republican nominee is more than a century. Here's the editorial.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I don't know what that line would be." - Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.), responding to a question from The Washington Post's Ben Terris about whether there's any line he wouldn't be willing to cross when it comes to political warfare.

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