Subject: Catherine Cortez Masto Campaign Update and Invite
From: "Courtney Collard-Meltzer" <[email-masked]>
To: "Courtney Collard-Meltzer" <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2016 14:43:20 +0000

The battle for Leader Reid's Senate seat is one of the most closely watched races in the country.  Catherine Cortez Masto is locked in a tight battle to keep that seat in Democratic hands.

Below are three recent polls, and as you can see, it is a very tight race.  All polls have the race within the margin of error and all within just a few points.

Also attached, please find a recent article from the New York Times about the battle for the Nevada Senate seat between the Koch brothers and Leader Reid.

Catherine will be back in Washington, DC on September 26th and has a reception that evening at 6:00 pm with Honorary Host Leader Harry Reid.

Please find the details of that event attached.  We hope you can come out and support Catherine in her campaign for the Senate.

Feel free to contact me with any questions.

Recent Polls on the Nevada Senate Race

Jon Ralston @RalstonReports: Yet another poll shows a very tight #nvsen race. We will see this a lot.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/776866095026233344
[https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Csf7kRUVMAAxMp1.jpg:large]<https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/776866095026233344>

Jon Ralston on Twitter<https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/776866095026233344>
twitter.com<http://twitter.com/>
“Yet another poll shows a very tight #nvsen race. We will see this a lot.”

Monmouth University – Nevada: Trump Overtakes Clinton
September 14, 2016

Heck holds onto narrow lead in Senate race

The race for Nevada's electoral votes has flipped from two months ago, with Donald Trump now holding a slim 2 point lead over Hillary Clinton, whereas Clinton held a 4 point lead in July's Monmouth University Poll .  In the U.S. Senate contest, Republican Joe Heck clings to a narrow 3 point lead over Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, virtually unchanged from his earlier 2 point lead.

Among Silver State voters likely to participate in November's presidential election, 44% currently support Trump and 42% back Clinton.  Another 8% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 3% say they will choose Nevada's unique "none of these candidates" ballot option.  Monmouth's July poll found Clinton leading Trump by 45% to 41%, with Johnson at 5% and none of the above at 4%.  Green Party candidate Jill Stein will not appear on the ballot in Nevada.

Among self-identified Republicans, 88% support Trump, which is identical to his 88% support in July.  Among Democrats, 90% support Clinton, which is similar to her 92% support in July.  Independents have shifted, however, now giving Trump a clear 43% to 29% advantage over Clinton, with 17% supporting Johnson.  Two months ago, the independent vote was divided at 39% for Trump, 37% for Clinton, and 10% for Johnson.

"The race in Nevada is still tight, but the momentum has swung toward Trump," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Clinton still has a sizable lead among non-white voters - 63% to 28% for Trump, which is down slightly from her 64% to 23% lead among this group in July.  The Republican nominee retains his lead among white voters, now standing at 51% to 33%, which is up slightly from 49% to 37% two months ago.

Clinton's lead among women voters is also a bit narrower than in Monmouth's prior poll, currently at 50% to 40% compared with 53% to 38% in July.  Trump has a 48% to 34% edge among men, which is slightly better than his 44% to 37% lead among male voters two months ago.

"These demographic shifts are within the margin of error for these demographic groups, but they suggest that Trump has had a little more success solidifying his base in Nevada than Clinton has," said Murray.

Interestingly, Trump has pulled ahead of Clinton in the horse race even while his favorable ratings have declined.  Only 30% of Nevada voters have a favorable opinion of Trump while 55% hold an unfavorable view of him, which is down from 35% favorable and 53% unfavorable in July.  Opinion of Clinton, on the other hand, has held steady.  She currently gets a 34% favorable and 54% unfavorable rating, which is identical to her 34% favorable and 54% unfavorable rating from two months ago.

Turning to the U.S. Senate race, Rep. Joe Heck currently has the backing of 46% of likely voters while former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto has 43% support.  Tom Jones of the Independent American Party has 4% and "none of these candidates" has 3%, with another 4% undecided.  Heck held a similar 42% to 40% lead in July, with Jones then at 5% and none of the above at 6%.

More than 8-in-10 Republicans (84%) back Heck, similar to his 81% partisan support in July.  Cortez Masto gets the backing of 86% of Democrats, which is similar to her 83% support two months ago.  Heck maintains the advantage among independents, now leading Cortez Masto by 49% to 33%, with 10% for Jones.  Two months ago, independents preferred Heck by 43% to 30%, with 11% backing Jones.

Heck holds a 52% to 38% edge among white voters, compared with 47% to 35% in July.  Cortez Masto has a 55% to 32% lead among Hispanic, black and Asian voters, compared with 49% to 29% in July.

Both U.S. Senate candidates have become better known since the summer, but opinion has moved in the negative direction.  Currently, 36% of Nevada voters have a favorable opinion of Heck and 32% have an unfavorable view of him, with 32% registering no opinion.  Voter opinion of Heck in July was 36% favorable and 19% unfavorable with 44% having no opinion.  Also, 34% of Nevada voters have a favorable opinion of Cortez Masto and 29% have an unfavorable view of her, with 37% registering no opinion.  Voter opinion of Cortez Masto in July was 29% favorable and 16% unfavorable with 55% having no opinion.

Overall, 38% of voters say special interests have too much influence over Heck, which is up from 26% in July.  Another 26% say special interests have the right amount of influence and 4% say they have too little influence, while 31% offer no opinion on this.  Similarly, 38% of voters say special interests have too much influence over Cortez Masto, which is up from 27% in July.  Another 24% say they have the right amount and 5% say they have too little influence, while 33% offer no opinion on this.

The candidates are vying to fill the seat of outgoing Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, whose own job approval rating has dipped since July.  Just 41% of likely Nevada voters approve of the job he has been doing while 51% disapprove.  This compares to a rating of 41% approve and 46% disapprove two months ago.

The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by telephone from September 11 to 13, 2016 with 406 Nevada residents likely to vote in the November election.  This sample has a margin of error of + 4.9 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NV_091416/

KTNV- White House, Senate races very close in Nevada<http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/white-house-senate-races-very-close-in-nevada>
Jon Ralston

The presidential and U.S. Senate races are very tight in Nevada, according to a new poll obtained by KTNV.

The survey, conducted for Project New America by the Democratic-leaning firm, Public Policy Polling, found Hillary Clinton up 3 points, 45-42, and Catherine Cortez Masto up just 1, 42-41. Both deficits are within the survey’s 3.4 percent margin of error (815 people surveyed through a combination of landlines and Internet last week).

The results (here is the poll<https://www.scribd.com/document/323773529/NVResults912-1> and the memo<https://www.scribd.com/document/323773595/Nevada-916-Memo>) echo what other recent surveys have found, including a new Wall Street Journal-Marist-NBC News poll<http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-trump-deadlocked-battleground-states-polls-n646216>. The PPP poll has 19 percent Hispanics and a 5-point Democratic voter edge, both of which seem reasonable for November.

Trump is losing by 71-22 among Latinos while Heck is doing significantly better at 59-33. None of the four candidates is above water when it comes to favorable/unfavorable ratings:

Clinton: 40-55

Trump: 38-55

Cortez Masto: 37-41

Heck: 39-45

"Once again, Nevada is playing a pivotal role in this election and determining the direction our nation will take post-November", said Jill Hanauer, President of Project New America, a Democratic-leaning research and strategy company that has done extensive work in Nevada since 2008.

She is right. Nevada will matter in both the race for the White and House and for control of the U.S. Senate.

Courtney Collard-Meltzer
The Kauffman Group
328 Massachusetts Avenue, NE
Washington, DC 20002

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