Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by Spot-On Ads: Inside Bayh's work since leaving the Senate — New ads galore — New polls in NY-19, FL-26, AZ-01, Iowa
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2016 08:03:20 -0600
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By Theodoric Meyer | 09/28/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Maggie Severns, Kevin Robillard, Scott Bland and Elena Schneider

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

THE BACKSTORY - "Bayh's missing five years," by POLITICO's Maggie Severns and Isaac Arnsdorf: "Evan Bayh has pushed back hard against Republican attacks on his post-Senate career as he attempts a comeback in Indiana. 'My opponent is attacking me as a lobbyist,' Bayh says in a recent campaign ad. 'That's just a lie.' The truth is somewhere in between. Bayh never registered as a lobbyist while working in Washington between leaving the Senate in 2011 and trying to come back in 2016. But he did carve out a lucrative niche in public advocacy, speaking and corporate board positions that allowed him to wield influence as a former lawmaker with decades of policy experience. Bayh sought to sway
 public policy to favor clients of McGuireWoods, the law and lobbying firm where he has worked since 2011, as well as other groups he affiliated with while out of office."

- "A few months before announcing his comeback Senate bid, Bayh flew to Connecticut, in his capacity as co-chairman of a nuclear industry group, to press officials there on issues affecting a power company that retains McGuireWoods. Years earlier, Bayh leveraged his well-known name in a public campaign against the medical device tax in Obamacare, soon after his firm took on a device manufacturer as a client. In another role, according to a source, he advised colleagues on how to message issues to members of Congress. And Bayh served as an adviser to advocacy groups that spent millions on ads opposing the Iran nuclear deal, a contentious issue that divided Democrats and has sparked campaign
 attacks on some of Bayh's would-be Senate colleagues this year." Full story. 

- MORE MONEY - "Senate Dems add another $2.5 million in Bayh's Indiana Senate race," by POLITICO's Seung Min Kim: Full story.

- FIRST IN SCORE - Senate Majority PAC ad goes after Young on student loans: Senate Majority PAC attacks Bayh's opponent, GOP Rep. Todd Young, over student loan interest rates and casts him as a "Washington insider" in a new ad. "There's nothing I wouldn't do for them. It is going to be a struggle to send them to college," an Indiana mother named Cheryl Crookshanks says about her kids in the ad. Crookshanks says Young supports "tying student interest rates to the ups and downs of Wall Street, and opposing the refinancing of student loans at lower rates." Watch the ad here.

Days until the 2016 election: 41.

Days until the vice presidential debate: 6.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

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SCORE CORRECTION - Tuesday's Morning Score incorrectly reported that Congressional Leadership Fund was airing cable TV ads in NJ-05, where GOP Rep. Scott Garrett is facing a challenge. But CLF is not in fact advertising in the district; the National Association of Realtors Congressional Fund is the latest advertiser there. The Realtors group, which is not releasing its TV ad, has backed Democrat Josh Gottheimer and is spending $590,000 on a media buy supporting him, according to FEC filings.

POLL COUNTRY - NY-19 Siena poll: Faso 43, Teachout 42: Republican John Faso and Democrat Zephyr Teachout are neck and neck in the race to replace GOP Rep. Chris Gibson, with 15 percent of voters undecided, according to an independent survey from Siena College and Time Warner Cable News. Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton in the Hudson Valley swing seat, 43 percent to 38 percent. (President Barack Obama carried 52 percent of the vote there in 2012.) Siena's detailed crosstabs show the broad education gap at the presidential level traveling down-ballot: Teachout wins college-educated voters 52-34, while Faso carries voters without degrees 52-34. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.8
 percentage points. Poll release here.

- QUOTH THE LORAS - Poll: Blum leads in IA-01, Young leads in IA-03: GOP Reps. Rod Blum and David Young lead their Democratic challengers in Iowa, according to a new Loras College poll. In the 1st District, Blum leads Democrat Monica Vernon 45 percent to 38 percent among likely voters. At the presidential level, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 42 percent to 33 percent, with Gary Johnson picking up 8 percent and Jill Stein at 2 percent. (Obama took 56 percent there in 2012.)

- In the 3rd District, Young leads Democrat Jim Mowrer 46 percent to 36 percent among likely voters. At the presidential level, Clinton leads Trump 42 percent to 38 percent, with Gary Johnson at 8 percent and Jill Stein at 2 percent. (Obama won 51 percent there in 2012.) The poll was conducted Sept. 20-22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percent in the 1st District and plus or minus 5.4 percent in the 3rd District. More details in the full poll release.

- Democratic internals - FL-26 Democratic poll: Garcia 47, Curbelo 46: Democrats believe the rematch between GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo and former Democratic Rep. Joe Garcia is closely balanced as outside group advertising begins in Miami, according to a poll from Garcia's campaign, POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo reports. The survey shows Clinton leading Trump 49-36 in the heavily Hispanic district, which Obama carried with over 55 percent of the vote in 2012 and where he retains high ratings, per the Expedition Strategies poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. The DCCC has just begun advertising calling Curbelo and Trump's "ideas about the environment ...
 more alike than what you think," while the NRCC is attacking Garcia's record and political scandals. Full story, including a poll memo.

- AZ-01 Democratic poll: O'Halleran 45, Babeu 38: Another Democratic poll, for the DCCC, shows Democrat Tom O'Halleran leading Republican Paul Babeu in the open swing seat currently represented by Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick. Mitt Romney carried the district in 2012, but the survey from Global Strategy Group shows Hillary Clinton with a slim advantage, 46 percent to 43 percent, over Donald Trump in the presidential race. See the polling memo here.

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FIRST IN SCORE - More outside groups jump into Missouri Senate race: Majority Forward, a nonprofit affiliated with Senate Majority PAC, and AFSCME are jumping into the Missouri Senate race and plan to spend more than $1.8 million over the next three weeks total on TV ads, according to an ad tracking source. Majority Forward and AFSCME are now buying airtime. The ads come as the DSCC is also putting more funding into Missouri to back Democrat Jason Kander, bolstering Democrats hopes of unseating GOP Sen. Roy Blunt.

FIRST IN SCORE - Mowrer debuts new ad in IA-03: Democrat Jim Mowrer is out with a new TV ad in Iowa attacking GOP Rep. David Young on women's health. "It's about respect," a young woman says in the ad. "It's about trusting us to decide what's best for our families," says another woman. "But politician David Young and his fellow Republicans," an older woman says. "Say that our bosses should decide if our birth control is covered by insurance," a fourth woman says. "Would outlaw abortion even in cases of rape," the first woman says. "And attempt to defund Planned Parenthood," the second woman says. Mowrer and the DCCC are paying to air the ad. Watch the ad here.

NEW THIS MORNING - Congressional Leadership Fund will spend $600,000 in ME-02: Congressional Leadership Fund plans to spend $600,000 attacking Democrat Emily Cain, who's challenging GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin in Maine, during the last two weeks of the race. About $500,000 of that will come in TV ads in the Portland, Bangor and Presque Isle markets, with $100,000 reserved for digital ads. The NRCC, the DCCC, House Majority PAC and End Citizens United PAC have all poured money into the race so far, making it one of the most expensive in the country.

NEW THIS MORNING - Sidie attacks Yoder with link to Brownback in KS-03: Democrat Jay Sidie's internal polling last month showed GOP Gov. Sam Brownback's disapproval rating at 70 percent in the district (a figure backed up by some independent surveys), and Sidie's latest TV ad seeks to saddle three-term GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder with that score, too. "Back to school is usually an exciting time for our family," Sidie says in the ad. "But earlier this year, I wasn't sure if there'd be a school for my daughters to go back to. Then I learned 'Kansas' current crisis has its genesis' with Kevin Yoder, the architect of Sam Brownback's radical plan to cut education to pay for corporate tax breaks," Sidie
 continues, linking Yoder's work in the state legislature to the current budget issues in Kansas. See the ad here.

MORE ADS - Kirk continues pushing Duckworth on trial: GOP Sen. Mark Kirk is again attacking Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth in a new ad in Illinois, this time pushingher on the death of six veterans while they were on a waitlist for admission to a veterans' home. "Waitlists were manipulated. The result? Six veterans died while waiting for care," the ad's narrator says. "No wonder Tammy Duckworth is going to court." Watch the ad here.

- New NRCC ad attacks Schneider in IL-10: The NRCC is out with a new TV ad faulting Democrat Brad Schneider for supporting the Iranian nuclear deal (which Schneider had previously opposed). "Schneider supports Washington's dangerous deal with Iran 100 percent, even though Iran is the leading sponsor of terrorism." Watch the ad here.

FIRST IN SCORE - Peters goes up with new ad in CA-52: Democratic Rep. Scott Peters is out with a new TV ad, promoting his plan to "fix Congress now," which includes getting "dark money" out of politics and instituting five-day congressional work weeks. The ad is airing today on broadcast and cable stations in San Diego. Watch the ad here. 

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Secret money to boost Trump," by POLITICO's Kenneth P. Vogel in Melbourne, Fla.: One of the top funders of the #NeverTrump movement is now using his name and connections to raise big money to help elect Donald Trump, but he's telling fellow mega-donors that they can write huge checks without having their names being disclosed. Todd Ricketts, whose family owns the Chicago Cubs, has raised $30 million for a pair of pro-Trump groups, and has discussed a $70 million goal before Election Day, according to three Republican fundraisers familiar with the effort. They and others in GOP finance circles say Ricketts is making a particular effort to win over donors who want
 to help Trump, but are leery of having their names publicly associated with the polarizing Republican nominee. Ricketts' pitch to these donors focuses on the fact that one of the pro-Trump groups he's fronting can accept unlimited checks while keeping its donors names secret." Full story.

- First Lady Michelle Obama stars in Hillary Clinton's latest ad, which marks Obama's first appearance in a Clinton TV spot. See the spot here.

- Former GOP Sen. John Warner will endorse Clinton, The Washington Post's John Wagner reports: "Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton will score another high-powered Republican endorsement on Wednesday, according to a campaign aide: retired senator John Warner of Virginia, a popular GOP maverick with renowned military credentials. Warner's decision not to support his party's nominee, Donald Trump, is intended to send a signal in the five-term senator's battleground home state and beyond that mainstream, security-minded Republicans should side with Clinton." Full story.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I didn't see it, guys. I was on an airplane." - GOP Sen. Marco Rubio, who apparently skipped the greatest television event of our lifetimes on Monday, per The Washington Post.

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