Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by Spot-On Ads: Democrats fret over Vermont governor's race as Sanders sits out — Poll: Three-way House race brewing in Central New York — New ads in Ohio, Missouri, Nevada Senate races
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2016 08:04:12 -0600
List-Id: <1376319_5887017.xt.local>

By Theodoric Meyer | 09/29/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard, Elena Schneider and Maggie Severns

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

THE HOME FRONT - "Vermont Democrats: Where's Bernie?" by POLITICO's Kevin Robillard and Gabriel Debenedetti: "Bernie Sanders has endorsed Democratic candidates in Wisconsin, Washington State and South Florida. He's campaigned in Pittsburgh, Akron and neighboring New Hampshire. But Sanders has done little for a Democrat who could be in trouble in a major race in his own backyard. Sanders, by far the most popular political figure in his state, has no apparent plans to assist Vermont Democrats' nominee for governor, Sue Minter. Despite Vermont's liberal leanings, popular Republican Lt. Gov. Phil Scott is a strong contender to win the race, and Sanders' seeming lack of interest in the contest
 has provoked alarm among local Democrats, many of whom have developed frosty relationships with Sanders over the years."

- "It's not that Sanders is wholly avoiding home-state politics to tend to his new national movement: Indeed, Sanders has endorsed a candidate for lieutenant governor, state Sen. David Zuckerman, who has the backing of Vermont's Progressive Party as well as its Democratic Party. Sanders has also endorsed a Progressive state Senate nominee. Sue is 'very much a moderate Democrat, which is probably why Bernie is sitting aside,' former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean said. But Sanders' unwillingness to participate in the Minter race "is starting to generate ill-will" with the state's Democratic establishment, a top Vermont Democrat said, adding: 'Is he going to let a Republican win his home state?'"
 Full story.

THREE'S COMPANY - NY-22 Siena poll: Tenney 35, Myers 30, Babinec 24: The latest House poll from Siena College and Time Warner Cable News shows Republican Claudia Tenney with a slim lead in a three-way race for retiring GOP Rep. Richard Hanna's Central New York seat. Democrat Kim Myers is close behind, but independent Martin Babinec's quarter of the vote means that the winning candidate may not get anything close to a majority of the vote in November. Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton 46 percent to 35 percent in the presidential race. (Mitt Romney carried the 22nd District by half a percentage point in 2012.) The poll of 649 likely voters was conducted Sept. 21-26, as House Majority PAC
 aired ads hitting Tenney and the NRCC has been on TV attacking both Myers and Babinec. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. Detailed crosstabs here.

FIRST IN SCORE - GOP poll: Bishop 53, Shkreli 34 in MI-08: GOP Rep. Mike Bishop has a big lead over his Democratic challenger in his suburban Detroit swing district, according to a new poll conducted for the NRCC and Bishop's campaign. Bishop leads Democrat Suzanna Shkreli 53 percent to 34 percent among likely voters. Shkreli jumped into the race over the summer after the previous Democratic candidate dropped out, and she remains almost completely unknown to voters. Eighty-two percent of voters have heard of Bishop, and 41 percent have a favorable view of him; only 17 percent of voters have heard of Shkreli and only 7 percent have heard enough to have an opinion of her. Shkreli hit the air
 with her first TV ad this week to try to move those numbers. The poll surveyed 400 likely voters Sept. 10-12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. 

Days until the 2016 election: 40.

Days until the vice presidential debate: 5.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about Cosi's demise: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

CORRECTION - Wednesday's Score mistakenly reported Senate Majority PAC had announced plans to air ads in the Missouri Senate race. Senate Majority PAC hasn't announced any such plans, though the affiliated nonprofit Majority Forward is now airing ads there. Morning Score regrets the error.

CUTTING BACK - DSCC cancels first week of Wisconsin buy: "The DSCC has canceled about $115,000 in advertising slated for Wisconsin's Senate race, believing Democrat Russ Feingold is in strong position to defeat GOP Sen. Ron Johnson in a rematch of their 2010 contest. 'Russ Feingold is running an incredibly strong campaign focused on the best interests of Wisconsin families,' ... The money pulled represents advertising for the week of Oct. 10, and the DSCC still has close to $2 million reserved in the state." More here.

- Meanwhile, two House Democratic groups pulled back ads in some of the first shifts in the House battleground spending map - House Majority PAC pulls ad targeting Paulsen in MN-03: "The Democratic super PAC's cancellation is an early sign that the challenge against Paulsen, who represents wealthy suburbs west of the Twin Cities, is not as competitive as Democrats had hoped it would be at this point in the election cycle. The DCCC has been airing TV ads connecting Paulsen with Donald Trump for several weeks." More here.

- DCCC cancels week of ads in WI-08: More here.

NEW THIS MORNING - Portman debuts testimonial ad on vets: The father of a fallen Iraq soldier stars in a new, 60-second TV ad that GOP Sen. Rob Portman's campaign is airing in Ohio. "You send these guys to war, then you need to take care of them when they get back, whatever it takes that you need to do," Keith Maupin, the father of Matt Maupin, says in the ad. "I know Rob Portman cares about the troops and he cared about Matt." Watch the ad here. 

- Majority Forward and AFSCME attack Blunt in new ad: Majority Forward and AFSCME will start airing an ad in Missouri today that hammers on GOP Rep. Roy Blunt on his family's lobbying. "After 9/11, both parties came together to pass a bill creating the Department of Homeland Security," the ad's narrator says. "But in that moment of unity, Roy Blunt tried to sneak in a provision to help tobacco giant Philip Morris. He got caught. And it got worse - turns out Blunt's wife and son were lobbyists for the company." The ad is part of a $1.3 million buy from Majority Forward and AFSCME in Missouri. Watch the ad here. 

- Planned Parenthood poll: Two-thirds of voters view Planned Parenthood favorably: A new poll commissioned by Planned Parenthood found more than half of voters in five battleground states - Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania - are less likely to vote for a candidate if they want to defund Planned Parenthood. In each of those states, nearly two-thirds of voters viewed Planned Parenthood positively. More here, including details on where the group is following up with fall TV buying.

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MORE ADS - DSCC ad attacks Heck over women's health: The DSCC is out with a new TV ad in the Nevada Senate race attacking GOP Rep. Joe Heck. "Who does Congressman Heck think he is?" an older woman says in the ad. "Heck wanted to make abortions illegal," a second woman says. "Even in cases of rape or the health of the mother," a third woman says. "Heck would take away our rights," a fourth woman says. Watch the ad here.

ON TO 2017 - "With Fulop out, Murphy hopes to woo North Jersey Dems," by POLITICO New Jersey's Matt Friedman: "Now that Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop has quit his campaign for governor before it officially began, it falls to first-time candidate Phil Murphy to try to consolidate support among the disparate Democratic factions in northern New Jersey. The biggest prize in the still-unsettled 2017 Democratic primary for governor is now between Murphy, the millionaire former U.S. ambassador to Germany who Fulop endorsed on Wednesday, and Senate President Stephen Sweeney, who if he pursues a run will all but certainly have a unified bloc of support from South Jersey counties. Several other
 potential Democratic candidates - state Sen. Raymond Lesniak, Assemblyman John Wisniewski, Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter and former state Democratic chairman Tom Byrne - are also considering whether to run." Full story.

USED WITHOUT PERMISSION - A TV station is threatening legal action against Fareed in CA-24, The Los Angeles Times' Javier Panzar reports: "The owners of a Santa Barbra TV news station are threatening legal action against a Republican congressional candidate after his campaign released an attack ad featuring a 10-second clip from the station's newscast. KEYT-TV General Manager Mark Danielson wrote a letter to Republican Justin Fareed's campaign Wednesday saying the station has 'not authorized or consented to any such use of its copyright protected news content in this political advertisement.' The ad features news anchor C.J. Ward reporting a comment Democratic Santa Barbara County
 Supervisor Salud Carbajal made this month referring to the inland city of Lompoc, Calif., as the 'armpit' of the coastal county." Full story.

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "State Dept. to process 3,000 pages of Clinton emails before election," by POLITICO's Josh Gerstein: The State Department has agreed to process for public release in advance of the election almost 3,000 pages of Hillary Clinton's emails recovered by the FBI during their recently closed investigation into Clinton's private server arrangement. A federal judge previously ordered State to review 1,050 pages of the Clinton messages before the election. The deal that State and Vice News reporter Jason Leopold submitted to two other federal judges Wednesday will add 1,850 pages to those already scheduled for processing. The release of the records seems certain to provide
 more unwelcome "drip, drip, drip" for the Clinton campaign, but many of the messages could emerge so close to the election that they'll be caught up in the last-minute frenzy of coverage and back-to-back political events." Full story.

- "Will Saturday Night Live' take down Trump?" by POLITICO's Shane Goldmacher: "Monday night was live from Hofstra. Saturday night is live from New York. While Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton argue over who won Monday night's debate, inside 30 Rockefeller Plaza, the winner in the all-important satirical showdown is still being scripted. That's where the cast and crew of "Saturday Night Live" gathered together Monday night to watch the debate together. And it's where they're still sketching out portrayals that will shape how Americans see their presidential candidates. SNL, which timed the launch of its 42nd season for the weekend after the first Clinton-Trump clash, made one big reveal
 Wednesday: actor Alec Baldwin will debut as Trump. But heading into Saturday, the biggest drama is how Baldwin and SNL will parody Trump: Will they mock his sniffles? His hair? His orange hue?" Full story.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "You are not supposed to gain 60 pounds the year you are Miss Universe." - Newt Gingrich, via @nikkischwab.

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