Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by Sinclair Broadcast Group: Where rural House Dems are trying to chase Trump voters — Nevadans watch for late breaks in House battlegrounds — Louisiana Senate runoff uncertainty
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 03 Oct 2016 08:03:00 -0600
List-Id: <1376319_5899066.xt.local>

By Elena Schneider | 10/03/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard and Theodoric Meyer

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

FOR EVERY ACTION... - "House Democrats court Trump voters in rural districts," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer in East Millinocket, Maine: "When House challenger Emily Cain first reached out to Clint Linscott, a proud Donald Trump supporter who owns an auto body shop in northern Maine, he didn't really want to meet with her. ... He has a 'Trump-Pence' sign taped up in the window of his shop on the main drag of his faded mill town. But as Democrats across the country work to tie their Republican opponents to Trump, Cain and a handful of other House candidates in key districts are doing the opposite. Trump is trouncing Hillary Clinton in GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin's largely rural, blue-collar
 swing district - which Democrats held for two decades before Poliquin beat Cain in 2014 - leading by double digits in two recent polls. And Linscott, who has become a strong Cain supporter, with a red Cain sign plastered on a building across from his garage, exemplifies the kind of crossover voter rural House Democrats are fighting to win over, with varying degrees of success." Full story.

DEPT. OF MUST-WINS - "Democrats push to take swing Nevada House districts," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider in Las Vegas: "Democrats have been hungrily eyeing two of Nevada's three GOP-held House seats all election cycle ... But just three weeks before early voting is to begin, the Las Vegas-area races remain tight and tense ... The NRCC has so far spent more money on independent expenditures defending Republican Rep. Cresent Hardy (over $1.8 million) in the 4th District than it has in any other district in the country. The Congressional Leadership Fund has earmarked $2 million for the districts starting this month. And while Democrats have countered well-known Republican Danny
 Tarkanian's internal polling in the 3rd District, which showed him up by 12 percentage points in mid-August, the publicly released surveys from the DCCC showed Democrat Jacky Rosen's margin declining over the summer." Full story. 

CLEAR YOUR DECEMBER SCHEDULE - "Wild Louisiana Senate race approaches runoff," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "[A]n entertaining and unpredictable campaign has exploded into a five-way brawl ahead of the 'jungle primary,' with the possibility of a Republican-versus-Republican runoff looming ahead, as well as the uncomfortable if slim possibility of an intra-party runoff the other way. ...The first-place finisher in the primary will probably not earn more than 30 percent of the vote, meaning that many candidates could be bunched within striking distance of that top-two runoff." Full story. 

Days until the 2016 election: 36.

Days until the vice presidential debate: 1.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about Big Papi: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

FIRST IN SCORE - Feingold raises $5.2 million in third quarter: Democrat Russ Feingold continued to be one of the the top Democratic fundraisers of the cycle, banking $5.2 million in the third quarter. It's his best quarter of the cycle, topping the $4.1 million he raised in the second quarter. His campaign didn't release a cash on hand number, but Feingold had a $1.3 million cash on hand advantage as of the pre-primary filing. 

MORE FUNDRAISING TOTALS - Deborah Ross raises $4.3 million in third quarter: Buzzfeed's Tarini Parti reported that Ross, a Democrat challenging Republican Sen. Richard Burr, hauled in $4.3 million since this summer. Ross outraised Burr in the first half of the year. Burr hasn't released his fundraising totals yet. 

CROSSING THE CAPITOL - "Ryan stumps hard for GOP Senate," by POLITICO's Rachael Bade and Seung Min Kim: "As Speaker Paul Ryan kicks off his final nationwide campaign sprint to protect his House majority, his October itinerary has a few unusual additions: Campaign stops for Senate Republicans. The one-time vice-presidential nominee will use his star power to help raise money and stump for some of his closest friends in the Senate facing competitive reelection races this fall ... Ryan is headed to Pennsylvania to help his former roommate, Pat Toomey; to Missouri to raise money for Roy Blunt; and back to his home state of Wisconsin for a string of appearances with Ron Johnson." Full story. 

UP ON THE AIRWAVES - In Missouri ... The NRSC is out with a new attack ad going after Democrat Jason Kander, calling him "too extreme" on Obamacare. "Premiums are skyrocketing. Medicare's been slashed. Our seniors are paying," the ad's narrator says. "But Kander and Clinton didn't think Obamacare went far enough." The ad started airing over the weekend on St. Louis and Kansas City stations. Watch the ad here. 

- In Nevada ... GOP Rep. Joe Heck released Spanish and English-language ads targeting Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto for "spent one hundred seventy four days away from work on special interest and taxpayer funded trips." The narrator asks, "What would happen to you if you spent one hundred seventy four days away from work? You'd be fired." The ad says Cortez Masto went "to places like Switzerland, Argentina and Hawaii with lobbyists and corporate donors." The ad started Friday and airs statewide through Oct. 6. Watch the ad here. 

- In NH-01 ... Former Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is out with her first TV ad in New Hampshire, a positive spot reintroducing her to voters. "I'm running for Congress because for too many, the American dream is slipping away," Shea-Porter says in the ad. "Veterans deserve better. Workers deserve fair wages. Women deserve equal pay for equal work." The ad never mentions GOP Rep. Frank Guinta, whom Shea-Porter is facing for the fourth time in the swing district. Watch the ad here.

- In VA-10 ... GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock's latest TV ad features a doctor calling the freshman "principled, independent, and bipartisan." "Barbara Comstock worked to keep the federal government open and avoid another government shutdown," Dr. Rita Roy says in the ad. "Barbara Comstock breaks through the gridlock and gets things done." Watch the ad here.

- ICYMI - "Friday, Friday: Campaign Pro's afternoon ad roundup," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: Full story.

NEW POLLS - Heck by 2 in new Nevada Senate poll: A Las Vegas Review-Journal poll found GOP Rep. Joe Heck with a slim advantage over Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, 47 percent to 45 percent. Another eight percent said they "didn't no/no answer." It's the latest in a long string of independent polls showing Heck at least narrowly ahead or more, whether or not Trump has led in the same survey. Bendixen & Amandi International surveyed 800 likely voters from Sept. 27 to Sept. 29 in English and Spanish. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The paper also polled the presidential, and found that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump practically deadlocked, 45 percent to 44
 percent. 

- Hassan by 2 in new New Hampshire Senate poll: A new independent poll of New Hampshire's Senate race, conducted after Monday's presidential debate, found Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan with a slim 2-percentage point advantage, within the survey's margin of error. WBUR's survey has Hassan earning 48 percent of the vote to Sen. Kelly Ayotte's 46 percent. The candidates are both earning a larger chunk of the vote than their party's presidential nominee: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 42 percent to 35 percent in the presidential race in the state, with Libertarian Gary Johnson drawing 13 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein getting 4 percent support." Full story. 

- IL-10 Democratic internal shows Schneider up: Full story. 

- EVENT ALERT - Boomer Women and The Election: What's at Stake? A deep-dive conversation on the concerns of women over 50 and how the candidates plan to meet them. We'll discuss how boomer women will influence elections, candidates' plans on Social Security and how they reflect women's economic concerns, policy options to address Alzheimer's Disease and more. Speakers include Lake Research Partners President Celinda Lake, CAP CEO Neera Tanden and more. Thursday, October 6 - 8 a.m. - The Mayflower Hotel. RSVP: here

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest and most diversified television broadcasting company in the country today, delivers not only TV, the primary medium for reaching potential voters, but also targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and native) ad solutions. Contact Alan Brittan @ 703-236-9673. Sinclair, busy - Making Political Ads Work! **

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Trump boosters laud his tax 'genius,'" by POLITICO's Ben Schreckinger: "Sunday morning saw Donald Trump's team furiously spinning a bombshell Saturday night New York Times report that revealed portions of his 1995 tax returns, showing a $916 million loss that would have allowed him to avoid paying personal income tax for up to 18 years. But hints are emerging that Hillary Clinton may soon be responding to an October surprise of her own ... In the early hours of Sunday morning, hours after the Times published its tax story, longtime Trump ally Roger Stone tweeted, 'Wednesday @HillaryClinton is done. #Wikileaks.' Stone did not respond to a request for more
 information on the coming revelations, but WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange has said his organization was preparing to publish damaging information on Clinton. Last week, 'Morning Joe' senior producer Jesse Rodriguez tweeted, 'Julian Assange set to make an announcement from his balcony in London next Tuesday, according to @WikiLeaks.'" Full story. 

- "Clinton, Trump in tight race in New Mexico," by the Albquerque Journal's Michael Coleman: "Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton holds a slight lead over Republican Donald Trump among likely New Mexico voters in a four-way race, while Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is pulling nearly a quarter of voter support in the state, according to a Journal poll. ... Clinton received 35 percent support and Trump 31 percent support. Twenty-four percent of New Mexicans favored Johnson, a former governor of the state, while 2 percent favored Green Party candidate Jill Stein, according to the poll conducted last week by Research & Polling Inc." Full story. 

- "Can Trump turn the page?" by POLITICO's Eli Stokols: "After perhaps the worst week any presidential nominee has ever had, Donald Trump enters the final full month of the 2016 contest in desperate need of a big moment to halt Hillary Clinton's newfound momentum and his own downward spiral. Trouble is, he may have to wait another seven days." Full story. 

- "Trump's campaign manager cashes in," by POLITICO's Kenneth P. Vogel and Jake Sherman: "Donald Trump's campaign manager Kellyanne Conway will emerge from the 2016 campaign as a winner, regardless of the result on Election Day, thanks to her unique relationships with a succession of overlapping committees and mega-donors. As Conway's profile has soared during the 2016 campaign, her small Washington-based polling firm has collected nearly $1.9 million and counting in fees from federally registered political campaign committees - more than twice as much as in any prior election, according to a POLITICO analysis of Federal Election Commission filings. ... Her journey to Trump's inner circle
 was circuitous, but profitable. It traced to some extent the path taken by the family of hedge fund tycoon Bob Mercer, a longtime Conway ally who has emerged as among the leading financiers of the anti-establishment right." Full story. 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I don't even think she's loyal to Bill." - Donald Trump said of Hillary Clinton, POLITICO reported off a recent rally of his in Pennsylvania. 

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: You're in the final days battle up to election day. As you execute your final push, remember voters will be deluged on overdrive with political messaging - everywhere. In a more fractured media environment, where reach is the real game, it would be wise to consider stepping up your TV advertising, in partnership with Digital ad solutions, to help ensure victory. Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest and most diversified television broadcasting company in the country today, can help you break through the clutter. Utilizing both TV, the primary medium for reaching potential voters and targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and
 native) ad solutions, Sinclair Makes Political Ads Work! The bottom line is -- winning elections. At the Sinclair Broadcast Group, we have the ad tools necessary to help you to persuade, enlighten and activate voters. Contact Alan Brittan, Sinclair's Director of Political Ads for more details @ 703-236-9673 **

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