Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Debate night: Ugliest in American history — Republicans fear GOP voters will stay home after Trump tape — Bayh files financial disclosure, 2010 schedule showed him job-seeking — Third-party House candidates roil two battlegrounds
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Mon, 10 Oct 2016 08:02:12 -0600
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By Elena Schneider | 10/10/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Theodoric Meyer, Kevin Robillard and Maggie Severns

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

SPIRIT OF ST. LOUIS - "Ugliest debate ever," by POLITICO's Shane Goldmacher: "For 90 minutes, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton called each other liars, untrustworthy and unfit for office as they sparred not so much about their policy differences as their basic character. Trump even threatened to 'jail' Clinton if he became president. 'Believe me, she has tremendous hate in her heart,' Trump said. Clinton accused Trump of launching distractions and diversions: 'Anything to avoid talking about your campaign and the way it's exploding.' It was nearly non-stop name-calling and nastiness - they opened by dispensing with the traditional handshake and an agitated Trump repeatedly encroached
 Clinton's physical space as he paced the debate stage. There were only brief reprieves of policy discussion that soon devolved back into a contentious affair, even as they had to balance their attacks with flashes of geniality before a town-hall audience of undecided voters." Full story. 

- "12 most heated moments in an unprecedented debate," by POLITICO's Matthew Nussbaum: "1. No handshake. 2. Trump: From sexual assault to ISIL. 3. Clinton responds to the video. 4. Trump lays Bill's alleged behavior at Clinton's feet. 5. Clinton: It's about Trump, not Bill. 6. Trump: Clinton is 'the devil.' 7. Trump: I will appoint a special prosecutor to go after you if I win. 8. Trump: Muslim ban has 'morphed.' 9. Trump: 'Of course' I used 1990s loss to duck taxes. 10. Clinton: Putin wants Trump. 11. Trump: Pence doesn't speak for me. 12. Trump: Clinton is hateful." Full story.

BEFORE YOUR MORNING CONFERENCE CALL - "Sources: Ryan discussed revoking Trump endorsement," by POLITICO's Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan: "House Speaker Paul Ryan has discussed withdrawing his endorsement of Donald Trump, according to multiple sources familiar with the discussions within his inner circle. Ryan (R-Wis.) has publicly and privately grown dismayed by the tone and tenor of Trump's campaign, according to multiple sources with direct knowledge of his thinking. And Ryan has reviewed with close advisers whether to abandon the GOP nominee. The discussions occurred after the bombshell video Friday of Trump talking in predatory terms about his sexual exploits, but before the second
 presidential debate Sunday night. Ryan is gathering House Republicans on a conference call Monday morning at 11 a.m. No decision has been made. But that the speaker of the House has even mulled abandoning his own party's presidential nominee is illustrative of the extraordinarily bizarre political climate in the Republican Party." Full story. 

SATURDAY NIGHT MASSACRE - Republican lawmakers stampede away from Trump after caught-on-tape comments about women: GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte (N.H.) and Nevada Republican Senate nominee Joe Heck were two of the earliest Republicans Saturday to disavow Donald Trump and declare they wouldn't vote for him after the Washington Post published 2005 video and audio of Trump making lewd remarks about women and suggesting he had sexually assaulted some. A stampede of Republicans from swing Senate and House seats abandoned Trump over the course of Saturday, joined by some GOP members from safer territory, as Trump threw the party into turmoil. See POLITICO's running tally of lawmakers, candidates, and
 other prominent Republicans who have said they won't vote for Trump and/or called for him to be replaced on the ticket since Friday here.

- At least seven Republicans in competitive Senate races and 14 Republicans in competitive House races had said they won't vote for Trump by Sunday evening, and many of them urged him to drop out of the race. The Senate candidates include: Sens. Mark Kirk of Illinois (who had already said he didn't support Trump, as had some House members below), Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Rob Portman of Ohio, John McCain of Arizona and Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire; Rep. Joe Heck in Nevada; and Darryl Glenn in Colorado. The House candidates: Reps. Steve Knight (CA-25), David Jolly (FL-13), Erik Paulsen (MN-03), Bob Dold (IL-10), Carlos Curbelo (FL-26), Mike Coffman (CO-06), Mia Love (UT-04), Barbara
 Comstock (VA-10), Cresent Hardy (NV-04), John Katko (NY-24) and Will Hurd (TX-23); Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-08); Scott Jones (CA-07) and Don Bacon (NE-02).

- THE DOWNBALLOT EFFECT - "Republicans fear GOP voters will stay home after Trump comments," by the Campaign Pro team: "Republicans are terrified about turnout in the November elections, as they watch the backlash erupting after Donald Trump was caught on tape bragging about groping women and making other unwanted sexual advances a decade ago. While GOP party leaders and elected officials began abandoning Trump in droves Friday and Saturday, Republican strategists also worried that a similar reaction among the party rank and file may condemn battleground GOP senators and House members to a down-ballot wipeout in a month, if large numbers of their base voters simply stay home out of disgust
 with Trump instead of voting down the ticket." 

- Key quote ... "The party should be terrified of turnout problems among 'establishment' Republicans and voters who are not tuned into down-ballot races," said one national Republican strategist. "This a serious, serious problem." Full story. 

Days until the 2016 election: 29.

Days until the third presidential debate: 9.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about grabbing the popcorn: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

QUICK TRUMP BREAK - SUNDAY NIGHT NEWS DUMP - "Bayh net worth soared since leaving Senate," by POLITICO's Seung Min Kim and Maggie Severns: "Indiana Democratic Senate candidate Evan Bayh amassed nearly $6.3 million in salary, compensation on corporate boards, and various speaking fees since January 2015, according to a new financial disclosure filed late Sunday night during the second presidential debate. Bayh's 19-page personal financial disclosure form details a large jump in his family's net worth over the last six years, as the former senator embarked on a post-Congress career at powerful K Street firms and on corporate boards. Bayh, along with his wife Susan, reported between $13.9
 million to $48 million in assets, the records show." Full story.

- SCHEDULE LEAK - "Job hunt substantial part of Bayh's last year," by The Associated Press' Erica Werner: "Evan Bayh spent substantial time during his last year in the Senate searching for a private sector job even as he voted on issues of interest to his future corporate bosses, according to the former Indiana lawmaker's 2010 schedule, obtained exclusively by The Associated Press. The Democrat had more than four dozen meetings and phone calls with headhunters and future corporate employers over the months, beginning days after announcing his surprise retirement from the Senate on Feb. 15, 2010, through December of that year as his term came to an end." Full story. 

THIRD-PARTY SHAKE-UPS - "Independents roil two battleground House races," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: "One of them leans left. The other leans right. But two multimillionaire entrepreneurs running for Congress as independents have both done well enough to draw the attention of both major parties, which are worried they could tip the outcome in two battleground House races." Full story. 

FIRST IN SCORE - Senate Leadership Fund out with a new ad in North Carolina: The Republican group is out with a new attack ad on another stance Democrat Deborah Ross took at the American Civil Liberties Union, saying a "Vietnam vet personally asked Deborah Ross for help, he was refused." Ross "defends those who want to burn the American flag, even called efforts to ban flag burning 'ridiculous.'" The ad will air statewide on broadcast and cable stations. Watch the ad here. 

TRUMP FALLOUT - NEW THIS MORNING - The DSCC is out with a new digital ad, targeting Republican senators positions on Trump, saying they will do "anything to win the election." The ad features Trump's inflammatory "grab them by the pussy" comments, with some words bleeped. Then, the ad cuts to several Republican Senate candidates previously saying they supported Donald Trump, even though some have now disavowed Trump and said they will not vote for him. The ad will be running on YouTube, Twitter and Facebook, starting today. Watch the one-minute ad here. 

- McGinty hits Toomey on Trump with digital ad: Democrat Katie McGinty's campaign is spending five figures on digital ads linking GOP Sen. Pat Toomey to Donald Trump, even though Toomey has never officially said he endorses the Republican nominee. The ad features the typical assortment of offensive Trump statements, followed by footage of Toomey promising to vote for the GOP nominee and saying he's "not in the never Trump category." Watch the ad here. 

- Strickland lays into Portman for shifting Trump stance: Democrat Ted Strickland's campaign is launching a new ad attacking GOP Sen. Rob Portman for his shift on Donald Trump and saying that "history will judge Rob Portman a coward." "There are moments in our history that measured the character and courage of our leaders. Where did you stand on Joe McCarthy? George Wallace? This is one of those moments," a narrator says in the ad. "Rob Portman endorsed Donald Trump - even with his history of degrading women... then Portman panicked, and scrambled to save himself." Watch the ad here. 

- African American leader gives testimonial for Portman ad: Ohio Rev. Henry Curtis talks about GOP Sen. Rob Portman's work to reduce recidivism in a new ad. The spot highlights Portman's work on "the Second Chance Act, which helps people have that second chance to get back on their feet," Portman says in the ad. "It also provides drug treatment programs and job skills. This is about helping people." Watch the ad here. 

THE PRICE OF SEPARATION? - Ayotte, Heck see blowback from Trump supporters: Separating Republican Senate candidates from Donald Trump won't be a painless process, as Sen. Kelly Ayotte and Rep. Joe Heck have already learned. Some members of the crowd at the rally where Heck announced he was no longer supporting Trump clearly booed the military veteran, while prominent Trump supporters in New Hampshire have already promised to withdraw support from Ayotte. Lou Gargiulo, one of Trump's electors, wrote on Facebook: "Kelly Ayotte, you just lost my and my family's vote as well." The infamous Al Baldasaro, a Trump military adviser who said Hillary Clinton should be executed for treason, called
 Ayotte "spineless" on Twitter. While neither a few right-wing defections or some isolated boos will cost Republicans an election, it shows breaking with Trump can alienate at least some of his supporters. 

- Ayotte explained why she broke with Trump in an interview with local reporters: "I've disagreed and denounced Donald Trump on many issues and called him out," she said. "But the tapes that were released on Friday, the statements made in those tapes and the actions talked about in those tapes are fundamentally different. It's talking about the assault of women. And I've thought about, years from now, when my daughter Kate is old enough to know what's in those tapes and understand what he's talking about, I want her to know where I stood. I can not vote for Donald Trump. ... That's more important to me than winning any election." Asked about Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan's suggestion her
 break was for political reasons, Ayotte responded: "I call them like I see them." She repeated that phrase four times during the interview, prompting Democrats to compare her to Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's "robot" moment during the New Hampshire primary. Watch the interview here via WMUR. 

SIR POLL McCARTNEY - NY-01 Siena poll: Zeldin 53, Throne-Holst 38: GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin of New York has a double-digit lead over his Democratic challenger, according to a new Newsday/Siena College poll. Zeldin leads Democrat Anna Throne-Holst 53 percent to 38 percent among likely voters. Zeldin is running well ahead of Donald Trump, who leads Hillary Clinton in the Long Island swing district, 43 percent to 40 percent. (The poll was conducted before the Trump tape broke Friday.) Full results and methodology here.

- NY-03 Siena poll: Suozzi 50, Martins 34: Democrat Tom Suozzi is leading Republican Jack Martins 50 percent to 34 percent in the race for an open swing seat on Long Island, according to a new Newsday/Siena College poll. Martins remains mostly unknown in the district, with 59 percent of likely voters reporting they don't have an opinion of him. The poll was conducted before the Trump tape broke on Friday. Full results and methodology here.

FRIDAY NEWS DUMP - Democrats to cancel remaining airtime in Ohio, all but one week in Florida: "The DSCC will cancel its remaining TV airtime in Ohio and all but its final week of TV reservations in Florida, according to a source familiar with the group's plans. The group had originally booked $10 million in each state, but has been slowly canceling ads as former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland and Rep. Patrick Murphy's chances to defeat Sens. Rob Portman and Marco Rubio faded. Polls now show Portman with double-digits leads over the poorly-funded Strickland and Rubio with a smaller but persistent edge over the little-known Murphy." Full story. 

ACLU DAYS STRIKE AGAIN - CNN report: Ross sought lenient sentence in sexual assault case: "North Carolina Democrat Deborah Ross' tenure at the American Civil Liberties Union continues to provide Republicans ammunition against the upstart Senate candidate, with a CNN story out Friday detailing how Ross argued for a lenient sentence for a 13-year-old who sexually assaulted his 23-year-old neighbor, while her young son was in the same room. In an amicus brief to the state Supreme Court while at the ACLU, Ross acknowledged the brutality of Andre Green's crime, but argued that Green was "not deserving of life imprisonment at age 13." Ross and the two other lawyers on the brief also argued that
 Green should not have been transferred into the adult court system." Full story from CNN here.

- Democrats stress that Ross argued for Green to still be put in prison, but to be treated as a juvenile and to avoid sending him into the adult prison system. 

AND SO ENDS - Bike messenger saga ends in Pennsylvania: It appears we've almost seen the last of the NRSC's recurring bike messenger character who delivers bad news about Democrat Katie McGinty's alleged corruption. In the latest ad, three office workers discuss McGinty giving grants to companies that employed her husband and later hired her. The conversation ends with the three exclaiming: "SHADY KATIE McGINTY!," and walking out of the elevator. The messenger then reveals himself and says: "I think my work is done." Watch it here. 

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "The RNC's Trump purgatory," by POLITICO's Kenneth P. Vogel and Darren Samuelsohn in St. Louis: "Republican Party insiders are pressing GOP leadership to shift resources away from Donald Trump after Sunday night's debate, conceding they believe the cause is lost even as the national party apparatus signals publicly its commitment to press on. GOP sources on Sunday told POLITICO that inside the party, few think Trump has any chance of winning, and that pressure is mounting to cut bait on their presidential nominee after the Friday release of damaging audio in which he talks lewdly about sexual assault. Nonetheless, the RNC for now is moving ahead with a series of
 fundraisers this month for its joint Trump Victory committee with the campaign, and staffers are dutifully still knocking on doors and making calls on behalf of a candidate who has lost their confidence." Full story. 

- "Clinton campaign signals new push for Senate control," by POLITICO's Gabriel Debenedetti in St. Louis: "Senate Democratic leaders have long urged Hillary Clinton and her campaign to pay more attention to her party's fight for control of the Senate, beyond mentioning local candidates at the beginning of her rallies. On Sunday, as Donald Trump reels and members of his party sprinted away from him, a top Clinton adviser signaled that such a shift may be coming. 'One thing that we would note is people like John McCain, Kelly Ayotte, Rob Portman, Congressman [Joe] Heck, we think they have a lot to answer for,' said Communications Director Jennifer Palmieri aboard Clinton's campaign plane, on
 the flight to St. Louis." Full story. 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "He and I haven't spoken and we don't agree." - Donald Trump, on Syria policy during the debate, referring to running mate Mike Pence.

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