Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: GOP outside groups pour $10 million into House races — Ryan raises $15.4 million — Republicans start check-and-balance ads
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 14 Oct 2016 08:07:40 -0600
List-Id: <1376319_5940489.xt.local>

By Theodoric Meyer | 10/14/2016 10:04 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard, Elena Schneider and Maggie Severns

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

MORE MONEY - "GOP outside groups pour fresh $10 million into tight House races," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider and Theodoric Meyer: "House Republicans' flagship super PAC and its allied nonprofit are infusing an additional $10 million into 15 House races across the country, days after a 2005 recording of Donald Trump's lewd comments about sexual assault prompted a flurry of defections among Republicans in competitive races. Congressional Leadership Fund and American Action Network, sister organizations aligned with House leadership that spend on down-ballot races, are expanding into races that lean Republican and into districts Republicans have previously insisted are out of reach for
 Democrats. The new cash injection would bring the two groups' total spending to $33 million in 29 districts, with additional outlays expected."

- The districts: AAN and CLF are spending to back "Rep. David Valadao of California, Rep. Mike Bishop of Michigan, Rep. Tim Walberg of Michigan, Rep. Rod Blum of Iowa, Rep. Jeff Denham of California, Rep. Scott Tipton of Colorado, Rep. Barbara Comstock of Virginia, Rep. Martha McSally of Arizona, Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, Rep. Mia Love of Utah and Rep. David Young of Iowa. The groups are also spending in four open seats: Michigan's 1st District, Virginia's 5th District, Pennsylvania's 8th and 16th Districts." Full story.

- DEMS EXPAND TOO - "DCCC to start TV in KS-03," by Campaign Pro's Scott Bland: "The DCCC is reserving TV ad time in Kansas City starting next week and running through Election Day, according to two sources tracking media buys. Democrats are targeting GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder ..." More here.

NEW THIS MORNING - "Paul Ryan fundraising haul nears $50 million," by POLITICO's Rachael Bade: "Paul Ryan raised $15.4 million for House Republicans in the third quarter, his political operation will announce Friday - bringing the speaker's total haul this year to nearly $50 million as he works to protect his House majority. The new influx of cash couldn't come at a better time: House Republicans are scrambling to protect their seats as Donald Trump tanks in the polls following allegations of sexual harassment and a tape of his lewd comments about women was revealed by the Washington Post." Full story. 

- "Trump collapse clouds Paul Ryan's future," by POLITICO's Jake Sherman, Rachael Bade and John Bresnahan: "With GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump cratering in the polls and the House Republican majority at serious risk, Ryan's post-election career could take a number of different turns after Nov. 8 - none of them especially attractive. And as Ryan goes, so will Washington governance over the next few years." The possibilities: Ryan could be handed a diminished Republican majority, making the already-tough job of managing his restive caucus even tougher. He could leave Congress altogether. Or he could become minority leader. Full story. 

ON THE AIRWAVES - Toomey moves toward check-and-balance message: GOP Sen. Pat Toomey isn't running ads promising to stand up to President Hillary Clinton yet - but he's getting there. Toomey's campaign didn't alert the media to his new TV ad, which edges toward the kind of check-and-balance message that strategists have said for months that Republicans might embrace if Donald Trump looks certain to lose. "I have a lot of disagreements with Donald Trump. I've been clear about that," Toomey says direct to camera in the ad. "But what's important for Pennsylvanians is having a senator who will stand up to any president's bad ideas." An NRCC ad that started airing Thursday in an upstate New York
 district went even further, warning that "we can't let extreme liberal Kim Myers and millionaire Martin Babinec rubber-stamp Hillary Clinton agenda in Congress." Watch the Toomey ad here.

NO MORE MOVEMENT - "GOP lawmakers unmoved by latest Trump groping claims," by POLITICO's Seung Min Kim: "Congressional Republicans were tripping over themselves to pull their Trump endorsements last weekend after the explosive video of him boasting crudely about his sexually exploits. Consider the floodgates now closed. The multiple accusations of sexual misconduct leveled against Donald Trump reported the past 24 hours haven't prompted more elected Republicans to pull the plug - and none are expected to do so, according to operatives working on Senate races. ... 'Asked and answered,' Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), said Thursday when questioned about the new allegations against Trump. Though Blunt
 has denounced Trump's actions, he's still supporting him. 'And the answer's still the same.'" Full story.

Days until the 2016 election: 25.

Days until the third presidential debate: 5.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about Morning Score: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

BACK FROM THE DEAD - "Clinton camp recreates friend-to-friend targeting banned by Facebook," by POLITICO Pro's Nancy Scola: "Hillary Clinton's campaign has recreated a Facebook tool that fueled President Barack Obama's 2012 voter outreach but was later yanked by the company over privacy concerns - giving it a way to contact vast numbers of people on the social network with weeks to go before the election." Full story.

DEBATE NIGHT - Burr, Ross square off in N.C. debate: GOP Sen. Richard Burr and Democrat Deborah Ross both had to answer questions about their counterparts at the top of the tickets in a debate Thursday night. "I expressed I have concerns about both candidates," Burr said. "I have more concerns about Hillary Clinton because of her lack of judgment." And when asked about Hillary Clinton's trustworthiness, Ross replied, "One thing I can tell you is that she's prepared to be commander-in-chief on day one." And they both took turns with their zingers: Ross said Burr's "toed the party line even when Donald Trump has crossed the line," while Burr said, "I've criticized Donald Trump. Deborah Ross
 hasn't criticized Hillary Clinton. You talk about a rubber stamp? The stamp is beside me for the Clinton administration." They also politely clashed over Obamacare, immigration policy and HB2. 

- Two polls show a close race: Burr and Ross are tied in an NBC/WSJ/Marist survey and Burr leads by 4 in a Suffolk poll.

- The DSCC is picking up on a familiar Democratic line in a new TV ad attacking Burr, accusing him of "serving himself" and adding that he "increased his wealth over 500 percent." "No wonder Richard Burr was only one of three senators who voted against banning insider trading by Congress," the ad's narrator says. Watch the ad here. 

- MORE POLLS - Polls find tight Senate, governor's races in New Hampshire: Two new polls show closely matched races in both the Senate and governor's races in New Hampshire. GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte leads Democrat Maggie Hassan 45 percent to 44 percent in a new UMass Lowell/7News poll of likely voters conducted Oct. 7-11. And a MassINC Polling Group/WBUR-FM poll conducted Oct. 10-12 found the race tied, with both candidates at 47 percent. In the governor's race, Republican Chris Sununu leads Democrat Colin Van Ostern 41 percent to 39 percent in the UMass Lowell poll. But Van Ostern leads Sununu 47 percent to 44 percent in the MassINC poll. Full results of the UMass Lowell poll here. More on
 the MassINC poll here. 

BAD BOOKKEEPING - "Young paid $30,000 in FEC fines after 2010 campaign," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: "GOP Rep. Todd Young's campaign paid more than $30,000 in fines and penalties nearly four years ago for failing to file required FEC reports during his 2010 campaign. Young's 2016 Senate campaign says its bookkeeping difficulties are in the past, and that Young has kept meticulous campaign finance records in his current Senate race against former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh. But the fines, some of which have not been previously reported, shed light on the less-disciplined campaign that Young ran during his first run for the House in 2010 ... Young's campaign blamed bad management at the
 time. 'Respondents contend the campaign committee, in its first campaign, was staffed by volunteers with little or no oversight by experience managers,' the negotiated settlement reads." Full story.

FIRST IN SCORE - Comstock raises $1.1 million in third quarter: GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock of Virginia brought in $1.1 million in the third quarter, giving her $1.9 million on hand for her race against Democrat LuAnn Bennett.

MORE ADS - New Cain TV ad in ME-02 features former mill workers: Democrat Emily Cain is airing a new TV ad that features three former workers in a paper and tissue mill in the district that went bankrupt last year. "When this mill shut down, Emily was here, doing everything she could to help us," one man says in the ad. "We trust Emily Cain," a second man says. "What we don't trust are false attacks from [GOP Rep.] Bruce Poliquin's Wall Street friends." Watch the ad here.

- Bacon debuts new positive spot in NE-02: Republican Don Bacon is out with a new TV ad outlining what he'll do if elected. "Don Bacon has a plan to shake up Washington," the ad's narrator says. "Take the fight to ISIS. Support term limits. Protect Social Security. Create jobs, balance the budget and keep our families safe." The ad never mentions his Democratic opponent, Rep. Brad Ashford. Watch the ad here.

INTERNAL POLLS - Nevada GOP poll: Heck 47, Cortez Masto 44: A new internal poll from Senate Leadership Fund, conducted after last week's Donald Trump tape and the weekend debate, shows Republican Rep. Joe Heck holding onto a 3-point lead over Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada ... Heck outperformed Trump by 8 points in the survey. More here.

- MI-01 GOP poll: Bergman 42, Johnson 37: Republican Jack Bergman is leading Democrat Lon Johnson 42 percent ot 37 percent in the race for an open seat in northern Michigan, according to a new poll conducted for the Bergman campaign and the NRCC. The polling memo does not include presidential results. The poll was conducted Oct. 8-9 by Harper Polling and surveyed 400 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Here's the polling memo.

- MI-08 Democratic poll: Bishop 47, Shkreli 41: GOP Rep. Mike Bishop of Michigan leads Democrat Suzanna Shkreli 47 percent to 41 percent among likely voters, according to a new one-day poll conducted by the DCCC's targeting and analytics department. At the presidential level, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 44 percent to 37 percent in the suburban Detroit district, with Gary Johnson at 10 percent. The poll surveyed 535 likely voters on Oct. 3 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. Here's the polling memo.

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Donald Trump prepares new attack on media, Clinton," by The Wall Street Journal's Monica Langley: "Donald Trump will broaden his attack against the media to hit globalism and the Clinton Foundation by charging that Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim is part of a biased coalition working in collusion with the Clinton campaign and its supporters to generate news reports of decades-old allegations from several women. ... As early as Friday, Mr. Trump is planning to claim that Mr. Slim, as a shareholder of New York Times Co. and donor to the Clinton Foundation, has an interest in helping Hillary Clinton's campaign, according to a Trump adviser." Full story.

- "Cut ties to Donald Trump, big donors urge R.N.C.," by The New York Times' Jonathan Martin, Alexander Burns and Maggie Haberman: "Several of the Republican Party's most generous donors called on the Republican National Committee on Thursday to disavow Donald J. Trump, saying that allegations by multiple women that Mr. Trump had groped or made inappropriate sexual advances toward them threatened to inflict lasting damage on the party's image. To an elite group of Republican contributors who have donated millions of dollars to the party's candidates and committees in recent years, the cascade of revelations related to Mr. Trump's sexual conduct is grounds for the committee to cut ties with
 the party's beleaguered standard-bearer, finally and fully. 'At some point, you have to look in the mirror and recognize that you cannot possibly justify support for Trump to your children - especially your daughters,' said David Humphreys, a Missouri business executive who contributed more than $2.5 million to Republicans from the 2012 campaign cycle through this spring." Full story.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I was saying, should I put it in or not? My wife said, no, it will be misunderstood. And she was right." - Lincoln Chafee, who told Esquire he regrets his decision to make switching the United States to the metric system a central part of his failed presidential run.

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