Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by Sinclair Broadcast Group: Surging Democratic candidates face harsh scrutiny — Latest on campaign finance: Senate GOP and House Democrats feel late cash pinch — Holder to lead new redistricting group
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2016 08:02:13 -0600
List-Id: <1376319_5948547.xt.local>

By Elena Schneider | 10/17/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Maggie Severns, Theodoric Meyer, Kevin Robillard and Sarah Wheaton

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

WITH GREAT POWER COMES ... NEGATIVE ADVERTISING - "Democrats face sudden scrutiny in late-breaking House races," by Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns: "The round, pink-cheeked mug of businessman Jay Sidie, a self-described 'non-political guy' running for Congress in the Kansas City suburbs, is an avatar for House Democrats' hopes of a smashing election-night victory in November. But few people in his district actually know who Sidie is - and Republicans are racing to be the first to tell voters about him." Sidie and other late-surging Democratic House candidates have found themselves "under the sudden, swift and brutal scrutiny of Republican opponents, who believe that they can keep Trump from
 pulling them down by making the Democrats totally unpalatable to locals, too. GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder is hammering away at Sidie's business and voting record." Full story.

FEELING THE PINCH - "Senate GOP faces late cash crunch," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt, Seung Min Kim and Kevin Robillard: "Senate Republicans, whose fragile majority has been threatened by Donald Trump's tanking presidential bid, are suddenly confronting another problem: a lack of cash. Republicans are set to be massively outspent on TV ads in seven of the eight states that are likely to decide control of the chamber. ... Republicans say they are particularly concerned that Democrats will use their financial advantage to tie the GOP candidates to an increasingly toxic Trump, who is now besieged by numerous accusations of sexual assault." Full story. 

- "FEC chart: House Democrats in new target districts trail in cash," by Campaign Pro's Scott Bland: "A number of House Democrats' top emerging pickup opportunities are also districts where the Democratic candidates entered October at enormous financial disadvantages, according to FEC reports filed this weekend. Eight battleground-district Republican incumbents finished the third quarter of 2016 with at least $1 million more on hand than their Democratic challengers, several of whom had less than $100,000 in their campaign accounts." More examples, the Q3 FEC chart and full story here. 

FORESIGHT IS 2020 - "Obama, Holder to lead post-Trump redistricting campaign," by POLITICO's Edward-Isaac Dovere: "As Democrats aim to capitalize on this year's Republican turmoil and start building back their own decimated bench, former Attorney General Eric Holder will chair a new umbrella group focused on redistricting reform ... The new group, called the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, was developed in close consultation with the White House. President Barack Obama himself has now identified the group - which will coordinate campaign strategy, direct fundraising, organize ballot initiatives and put together legal challenges to state redistricting maps - as the main focus of
 his political activity once he leaves office. Though initial plans to be active in this year's elections fell short, the group has been incorporated as a 527, with Democratic Governors Association executive director Elizabeth Pearson as its president and House Majority PAC executive director Ali Lapp as its vice president." Full story. 

Days until the 2016 election: 21.

Days until the third presidential debate: 2.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about searching for food in Philadelphia: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

POP QUIZ: T/F? THE GSA IS REQUIRED BY LAW TO SUPPLY OFFICE SPACE AND EQUIPMENT TO PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITION TEAMS? Not sure? No problem. Over the next several weeks, we'll be sharing the resources you'll need to navigate the changing landscape in Washington. From the "Five Things You Need to Know" (where you'd learn the answer to the above question is true) to the big names under consideration for key positions, you'll be 100 percent ready for Transition 2017. Sign up now.

SHOW-ME SHOWDOWN - "Blunt stands by his man," by Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns in St. Louis, Mo.: "While the Republican Party convulses over Donald Trump, GOP Sen. Roy Blunt is trying to do business as usual - including maintaining support for his party's presidential nominee. But after giving a pep talk to workers as he toured a Missouri factory Thursday morning, the mild-mannered Republican incumbent grew visibly frustrated when reporters changed the topic to the newest sexual assault allegations against Trump. ... Many of Blunt's Senate colleagues are running for reelection in purple or blue states where Clinton looks increasingly likely to win on Election Day ... But even as Trump's
 campaign reaches new heights of controversy, Missouri Republicans still expect him to win their state." Full story. 

FIRST IN SCORE - Third CLF ad in NY-19: The Republican super PAC is out with an ad, criticizing Democrat Zephyr Teachout for "underpaying her own taxes while pushing to raise ours" and casting her as a "hypocrite." The ad will go into the rotation in its existing $2 million buy on New York City cable markets. Watch the ad here. 

NEW THIS MORNING - FL-18 GOP poll: Mast 47, Perkins 40: According to a new poll conducted for Republican Brian Mast and the NRCC, Mast is leading Democrat Randy Perkins in the race for an open swing seat in Florida. Mast leads Perkins 47 percent to 40 percent among likely voters. At the presidential level, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46 percent to 44 percent, while GOP Sen. Marco Rubio leads Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy - who is vacating the district to run for Senate - 48 percent to 45 percent in the district in the poll. Methodology and more in the polling memo.

CASH DASH - RGA raises $13.3M in third quarter: The Republican Governors Association raised $13.3 million in the third quarter, but the group didn't release a cash on hand number. The group raised $17 million in the second quarter of the year, and started the year off with a $12.8 million first quarter. - In Colorado ... Republican Darryl Glenn topped Sen. Michael Bennet in the third quarter, a significant leap from the $347,000 total receipts in the first 18 months of his campaign. Glenn raised $2.8 million to Bennet's $2.2 million in the third financial quarter. But Bennet still holds a cash advantage, with the Democratic incumbent with $3.6 million in the bank to Glenn's $1.9 million,
 The Denver Post reported. - In California ... Democrat Kamala Harris raised $2.4 million in the third quarter, ending with $4.4 million in cash on hand, The Los Angeles Times reported. 

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest and most diversified television broadcasting company in the country today, delivers not only TV, the primary medium for reaching potential voters, but also targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and native) ad solutions. Contact Alan Brittan @ 703-236-9673. Sinclair, busy - Making Political Ads Work! **

WEEKEND AD ADDITIONS - In Pennsylvania: Senate Majority PAC is out with a new ad that opens with side-by-side images of Pennsylvania GOP Sen. Pat Toomey and Trump. "Pat Toomey and Donald Trump. They're just wrong for the women of Pennsylvania," a female narrator says, before clips of Trump saying women who seek abortions should be punished and Toomey saying doctors who perform them should be punished play. Watch the ad here. 

- In Nevada: The NRSC hits on familiar themes with its new TV ad, slamming Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto as a "typical, corrupt, career politician" who takes "lavish lobbyist trips" and "doled out millions in taxpayer money to political cronies." The spot started airing over the weekend. Watch the ad here. 

- In Indiana: Senate Leadership Fund attacks Democrat Evan Bayh for meeting with future employers in the private sector before leaving the Senate in a new ad. "Before Bayh even left the Senate to make millions on corporate boards, he met with his future employers and voted on issues they cared about," a narrator says in the ad. "He voted with them and then got paid." Watch the ad here. 

- In New Hampshire: Gov. Maggie Hassan's campaign calls Sen. Kelly Ayotte's decision to break with Trump a "political calculation just to reelect herself" in its new TV ad. It also hits her for voting "with the Koch Brothers 90 percent of the time" and "corporate special interests, like the Kochs, spend millions to reelect Ayotte." Watch the ad here. 

- More in Nevada: Republican Rep. Joe Heck's campaign released a Spanish and English-language TV ad, hours before its debate, casting Masto as "the most corrupt attorney general in Nevada history." The ad says "prosecutorial misconduct, sloppy legal practice, politicizing her office, partisan bully - that's what they're saying" about Masto's record. It also attacks her for prosecuting Brian Krolicki "just to protect Harry Reid's political career." The spot is airing statewide. Watch the ad here. 

ICYMI - "Face off: Campaign Pro's ad roundup," by Campaign Pro's Scott Bland. Full story. 

FRIDAY NIGHT DEBATE - In Nevada ...  "Rep. Joe Heck and Catherine Cortez Masto faced off in a feisty debate Friday night, jabbing each other over their parties' presidential nominees and other issues as they continue a tight race for the seat held by retiring Sen. Harry Reid." Full story. - In Wisconsin ... "Democrat Russ Feingold and Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson clashed over Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Obamacare and national security during their first debate Friday night. With polls tightening, the two candidates who battled for the seat in 2010 were eager to spell out their differences, rally their supporters and appeal to a small slice of voters who remain undecided." Full story.
 And a PolitiFact fact check, too.

WAY DOWN THE BALLOT - Bloomberg spending to flip statehouses on guns: Everytown for Gun Safety been positioning itself to be the counterpoint to the National Rifle Association (which is investing its own record sum this cycle), the Mike Bloomberg-backed gun control group and its IE spinoffs are spending $25 million in total this cycle. Beyond backing Hillary Clinton and spending $8 million on state ballot initiatives, they're also hoping to have outsized impact on state legislatures, sharing exclusive (way) down-ballot breakdowns with Score. That includes $400,000 to take out opponents of expanding background checks in three Minnesota House and Senate races (here's one of the spots), and
 $100,000 attacking a single state representative in a purple Iowa district with mailers and digital ads. More than 20 Republicans who've gone against the NRA have Everytown's financial backing, including $85,000 in digital ads for a Florida state senator who helped block a vote on open carry and campus carry bills. 

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Trump, companies accused of mistreating women in at least 20 lawsuits," by USA Today's John Kelly, Nick Penzenstadler and Steve Reilly: "...An ongoing USA TODAY investigation of Trump's 4,000-plus lawsuits shows that he and his companies have been accused for years of mistreating women. Allegations outlined in at least 20 separate lawsuits accuse Trump and managers at his companies of discriminating against women, ignoring sexual harassment complaints and even participating in the harassment themselves. The details of these allegations, some not reported until now, suggest that the kinds of lewd and discriminatory actions reported last week may be more prevalent
 within Trump's organization than previously known." Full story. 

- "Early voting reveals warning signs for Trump," by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney: "Democrats appear to be outpacing their 2012 early-vote performance in several critical swing states, giving Hillary Clinton a head start on Donald Trump in some of the most important presidential battlegrounds. In two must-win states for Trump, North Carolina and Florida, Republicans are clinging to narrow leads in the total number of mail-in ballots requested. Yet in both states, Clinton is ahead of Barack Obama's pace four years earlier - and the GOP trails Mitt Romney's clip. Any diminishing of the GOP's mail-in ballot lead is a matter of concern for Republicans because Democrats typically dominate early
 in-person voting in both states, which will begin over the next 10 days." Full story. 

- "22 toxic days for Hillary Clinton," by POLITICO's Annie Karni and Glenn Thrush: "The final three weeks should have been an anxious but happy time for a Hillary Clinton team on the cusp of making history. Her odds of victory, according to most prediction experts, sit north of 80 percent and she has solidified modest but durable leads over Donald Trump in most battleground states. But Clinton's final sprint has become a joyless, nail-gnawing slog through Trump Tower's moat of mudslinging - and the day-to-day worries of WikiLeaks' dump of internal emails from campaign Chairman John Podesta's hacked account is taking a toll." Full story. 

- "Hacked emails raise possibility of Clinton Foundation ethics breach," by Reuters' Jonathan Allen: "Hacked emails published by Wikileaks this week appear to show Qatar pledging to donate $1 million to Hillary Clinton's family's charitable foundation, despite her promise to curb new donations by foreign governments while U.S. secretary of state. In an email from 2012, a senior official from the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation informs colleagues that a planned donation by Qatar's government to mark Bill Clinton's birthday came up in a meeting he had with the Gulf state's ambassador in Washington." Full story.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "To those of you who have spit on, threatened with violence, screamed at and bullied the young people going door-to-door selling subscriptions, I give you those dozens of young men and women themselves. Many sell subscriptions to work their way through school. Most were too frightened to share even their first names here. But they are still on the job. They know that free speech is part of a society that values hard work and equal opportunity." - Arizona Republic president Mi-Ai Parrish, in an op-ed responding to threats the paper and its employees have received since endorsing Hillary Clinton. 

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: You're in the final days battle up to election day. As you execute your final push, remember voters will be deluged on overdrive with political messaging - everywhere. In a more fractured media environment, where reach is the real game, it would be wise to consider stepping up your TV advertising, in partnership with Digital ad solutions, to help ensure victory. Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest and most diversified television broadcasting company in the country today, can help you break through the clutter. Utilizing both TV, the primary medium for reaching potential voters and targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and
 native) ad solutions, Sinclair Makes Political Ads Work! The bottom line is -- winning elections. At the Sinclair Broadcast Group, we have the ad tools necessary to help you to persuade, enlighten and activate voters. Contact Alan Brittan, Sinclair's Director of Political Ads for more details @ 703-236-9673 **

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