Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by Sinclair Broadcast Group: Obama cuts first House ad for Schneider in IL-10 — Toomey buffeted by Trump winds in Pennsylvania — North Carolina Senate gets personal
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 18 Oct 2016 08:02:04 -0600
List-Id: <1376319_5952488.xt.local>

By Elena Schneider | 10/18/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Theodoric Meyer, Maggie Severns and Kevin Robillard

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

FIRED UP AND READY TO GO DOWNBALLOT - &quot;Obama cuts TV ad for Schneider in IL-10," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: "'This is not your typical election,' Obama says in the ad. 'It's not just a choice between parties or policies. It's about who we are as a people. Vote for Brad Schneider and the Democrats, so we can keep America's promise to our seniors, protect our kids and our cops from gun violence, and preserve a woman's right to choose.' Obama's involvement in the presidential race to replace him has ramped up in recent weeks, but this is the first TV ad the president has made for a congressional candidate during the general election." See the ad here. Full story. 

BEST LAID PLANS - "Pat Toomey's wild ride," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard in Harrisburg, Pa.: "Six years of Sen. Pat Toomey's best-laid plans have gone slightly awry at the end. ... 'Have there been times when it's been hard to get a message out? Yes. Is that frustrating? Yes,' Toomey admits in an interview. But he insists Trump isn't going to ruin a full Senate term of hard work: 'He doesn't blow up my campaign. I think voters can see quite clearly there's a difference between Pat Toomey and Donald Trump.' ... [Katie] McGinty, meanwhile, would like nothing more than to tie the presidential and Senate races together. The reason why was clear as canvassers with the union-backed super PAC
 For Our Future knocked on doors in Swarthmore, outside Philadelphia, on Sunday. All of the voters they spoke to are for Clinton, and most planned to vote for McGinty. But they nearly unanimously said they still knew very little about the Democrat, and some were willing to give Toomey a chance." Full story. 

ALL IN ON ACLU - "North Carolina's Senate race gets personal," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider in Smithfield, N.C.: "A lot had to break Deborah Ross' way for the little-known Democrat to find herself in contention for a Senate seat in October. But Ross' own resume still stands between her and an upset win. Donald Trump is squeezing Republican Sen. Richard Burr's reelection hopes from both sides in North Carolina. ... With the political environment and the top of the ticket leaning against them, Republicans have put all their chips behind casting Ross as an unacceptable ultra-liberal in order to save Burr. The GOP is airing intense and personal ads based on Ross' tenure as a state
 representative and as a top lawyer at the American Civil Liberties Union, where she voiced opposition to a sex offender registry bill and advocated for flag burners and even an adolescent who was convicted of sexual assault." Full story.

DEBATE NIGHT - "Rubio pledges to serve full term - 'God willing,'" by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "Rubio, who was debating Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy for the first time, was asked if he planned on filling out his second six-year term and not making a second bid for the presidency. 'I'm going to serve six years in the United States Senate, God willing, and I'm looking forward to it,' Rubio said, before he and Murphy exchanged attacks over who could do more to protect the Everglades. Pressed by the moderator if he planned to serve all six years of his term, Rubio repeated the phrase: 'I'm going to serve in the Senate for the next six years, God willing.'" Full story. 

Days until the 2016 election: 20.

Days until the third presidential debate: 1.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet a lot about campaigns and occasionally about dogs and cats living together: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

LAST WOMAN STANDING - "Inside Ayotte's fight for survival," by POLITICO's Burgess Everett in West Lebanon, N.H.: "The New Hampshire Republican was already on the hot seat before Trump arrived on the scene ... Yet somehow, through all that, Ayotte has managed to keep the race a dead heat. And the self-styled conservative-leaning-yet-bipartisan dealmaker could be one of the most influential swing votes in Congress - if she can hang on." Full story. 

UNUSUAL BEDFELLOWS - Another ad featuring Obama... Darrell Issa highlights working with the president in a campaign mailer: The Huffington Post reported Republican Rep. Darrell Issa, a usually hostile opponent to the Obama administration, is now emphasizing his bipartisan relationship with the president in mailers. It spotlights his work with President Obama for signing "into law the Survivor's' Bill of Rights - legislation I co-sponsored to protect the victims of sexual assault." Issa is in a tight race against Democrat Doug Applegate. 

FIRST IN SCORE - AFP launches seven-figure digital ad buy: The Koch-backed group is digitally targeting voters in eight states (Florida, Missouri, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina and Nevada) attacking Obamacare and "skyrocketing costs," per a memo from the group. The ads hit on the "like your plan, you can keep your plan" theme, featuring President Obama, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid. Watch the Pennsylvania ad here. 

FIRST IN SCORE - Senate Leadership Fund attacks McGinty on Iran deal: The GOP super PAC is out with a new ad attacking Democrat Katie McGinty over the Iran nuclear deal and labeling her "just too big a risk." Watch it here. 

- Feingold punches back on healthcare: Democrat Russ Feingold, under fire from GOP Sen. Ron Johnson's campaign for voting for Obamacare, is out with a new contrast ad. The first 15 seconds are spent defending Feingold's record on the topic, saying he'll "work with both parties to lower premiums and cut health care taxes." The final 15 seconds are spent going after Johnson for siding "with big insurance." Watch the ad here. 

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest and most diversified television broadcasting company in the country today, delivers not only TV, the primary medium for reaching potential voters, but also targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and native) ad solutions. Contact Alan Brittan @ 703-236-9673. Sinclair, busy - Making Political Ads Work! **

NEW THIS MORNING - Cooper uses McCrory's 2013 inaugural address: The new Roy Cooper ad shows a clip of McCrory saying, "there is no limit to what every student in North Carolina can learn and achieve," then it cuts to a narrator saying, "not when we're 44th in per student spending." On taxes, the narrator says, McCrory "gave tax breaks to those at the top, while raising taxes 67 ways on the middle class." Cutting back to McCrory, the ad shows the governor saying the state needs to "polish up its brand," then the ad says, "HB2 trashed our brand, costing us thousands of jobs." Watch the ad here. 

- Kander hammers on Blunt family lobbying: Democrat Jason Kander again attacks GOP Sen. Roy Blunt on lobbying and questions Blunt's residency in a new ad. "We have a family business just like Roy Blunt -- his wife and three of his children are all lobbyists," a narrator says in the ad. "And lobbying bought his $1.6 million Washington mansion. He doesn't even live in Missouri anymore." Watch the ad here. 

- LATE NIGHT AD-ITIONS - In CO-06: Republican Rep. Mike Coffman spotlights his work with the Ethiopian community, a growing population in his district, reaching out to them after the ISIS killings of Ethiopian Christians last year. Appearing to hold back tears, one Ethiopian woman, Mamay, says, "Mike Coffman was the only one who reached out to our community. He went to every Ethiopian church. He was there, sharing the sadness that we were actually experiencing at that time." "He says what he means and he does what he says," she concludes. Watch the ad here. 

- In Pennsylvania: Club for Growth Action is out with an $800,000 ad buy on cable and broadcast stations, hammering Democrat Katie McGinty, as she "cashed in by giving fat government checks to her husband's company. Then, she wanted to hand us the bill," the ad's narrator says. "McGinty's tax record: Higher payroll taxes. Higher income taxes. Higher sales taxes. Higher energy taxes. Even higher internet taxes." Watch the ad here. 

- In CA-10: The DCCC targets Republican Rep. Jeff Denham in a new TV ad, featuring Trump's lewd comments from 2005. "Military and business leaders across the country have disavowed Donald Trump-but not Congressman Jeff Denham," the ad's narrator says. "Denham still stands with Trump, even after he bragged about sexually assaulting women. The Modesto Bee said, 'If Jeff Denham can't reject Trump, we must reject him.' They're right." Watch the ad here. 

FIRST IN SCORE - Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions backs five House Republicans: Citizens for Responsible Energy Solution is spending more than $440,000 on mailers and get-out-the-vote calls to support five House Republicans. The group is spending about $103,000 each backing Reps. Bob Dold of Illinois and Barbara Comstock of Virginia, $88,000 backing Rep. Carlos Curbelo of Florida, $81,000 backing Rep. Tom Reed of New York and $66,000 backing Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York.

FROM THE TAPE - "Heck: 'I really' want to support Trump but I can't," by CNN's Manu Raju: "Rep. Joe Heck gave his most extensive assessment of his decision to dump Donald Trump at a closed-door fundraiser last week, saying Republicans had 'cut a lot of slack' to his party's presidential nominee for months but that he had become too toxic now amid an undisciplined and unfocused campaign. Full story. 

CASH DASH - FIRST IN SCORE - DGA raises $8.3M in third quarter: The Democratic Governors' Association raised $8.3 million in the third quarter of 2016, a slight uptick from what they raised in the same period in 2012. The RGA announced yesterday they raised $13.3 million, down from $14.8 million in the same timeframe four years ago. (Both committees had slightly higher than typical fundraising in summer 2012 because of the Wisconsin recall election.)

- Gregg raises $4.5M in third quarter: Democrat John Gregg raised $4.5 million for his Indiana gubernatorial bid in the third quarter and now has $4.8 million on hand. His campaign has now raised $13.1 million, more than double what he raised when running against Republican Mike Pence in 2012.

- A LITTLE HELP - Bernie Sanders sent a fundraising email to his list Monday night backing four Democrats facing tough races: Rep. Rick Nolan of Minnesota; Tom Nelson, who's running for an open seat in Wisconsin; Morgan Carroll, who's challenging GOP Rep. Mike Coffman in Colorado; and Zephyr Teachout, who's running for an open seat in New York's Hudson Valley.

DEBATE NIGHT - In Pennsylvania ... "The beginning consisted of the candidates basically rehashing in their own words the attacks already flooding your airwaves - each seeming to try to knock the other off stride. McGinty accused Toomey of being a Wall Street insider. Toomey said McGinty had enriched herself by handing out taxpayer-funded grants to companies that later gave her high-paying board positions," Philly.com reported, including an awkward back and forth from McGinty's team on a police group's endorsement. 

POLL CUBS POLL - CNN polls: Cortez Masto leads in Nevada, North Carolina tight: "A new CNN/ORC poll shows Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto leading Republican Rep. Joe Heck in Nevada's Senate race, while the group's latest poll of the Senate race in North Carolina shows GOP Sen. Richard Burr with a nominal 1-point advantage among likely voters. Among likely voters in Nevada, Cortez Masto leads Heck by 7 points, 52 percent to 45 percent. (Note: her widest margin in a public poll to date, including some conducted recently.) ...In North Carolina, Sen. Richard Burr leads by 1 point among likely voters, 48 percent to 47 percent. Democrat Deborah Ross had a slim advantage among registered voters
 (49 percent to 46 percent) that evaporated after CNN applied its likely voter screen." Full story. 

- In MN-02: A KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA poll found Democrat Angie Craig leads Republican Jason Lewis, 46 percent to 41 percent, "in the fiercely fought contest for the open seat left vacant by retiring Republican John Kline." Another 12 percent are undecided. "Lewis leads among middle-aged voters, but Craig leads among those younger and older. Lewis leads among men, but Craig leads among women; there is a 13-point Gender Gap."

- In MN-03: "A new independent poll finds Republican Erik Paulsen has a 49 percent to 38 percent lead over Democrat Terri Bonoff in Minnesota's 3rd District, a suburban Minneapolis area Democrats have been trying to turn into a House battleground this fall." Full story. 

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "How low can he go?" Via POLITICO's Steve Shepard: "Donald Trump is now on pace to earn a smaller percentage of the vote than any major-party nominee in at least 20 years. In the dozen national polls using live-telephone interviewers conducted since Trump and Hillary Clinton debated for the first time last month, Trump is earning, on average, 39.6 percent of the vote in matchups that include third-party candidates. Clinton, by comparison, wins 46.2 percent. Full story. 

- "Trump's Wisconsin strategy: Burn it all down," by POLITICO's Katie Glueck: "Wisconsin Republicans already rejected Donald Trump once. His escalating attacks on Paul Ryan are motivating a sizable number of them to do it again. Trump will campaign in Green Bay Monday night, but many Republicans won't be glad to see him one day after he launched a Twitter tirade against Ryan, the House speaker and the pride of the Wisconsin GOP. After getting blown out in the state's primary last spring, Trump already faced a steep challenge in winning over local Republicans. The attacks on Ryan, activists and party officials say, are further compounding his challenge in the state." Full story. 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "We're gonna build it, and they're gonna pay for it," said Metro Los Angeles CEO Phil Washington, about the NFL kicking in money for a train to the Rams stadium in Inglewood, Calif., The Los Angeles Times reported. 

** A message from Sinclair Broadcast Group: You're in the final days battle up to election day. As you execute your final push, remember voters will be deluged on overdrive with political messaging - everywhere. In a more fractured media environment, where reach is the real game, it would be wise to consider stepping up your TV advertising, in partnership with Digital ad solutions, to help ensure victory. Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest and most diversified television broadcasting company in the country today, can help you break through the clutter. Utilizing both TV, the primary medium for reaching potential voters and targetable digital (mobile, video, email, social media and
 native) ad solutions, Sinclair Makes Political Ads Work! The bottom line is -- winning elections. At the Sinclair Broadcast Group, we have the ad tools necessary to help you to persuade, enlighten and activate voters. Contact Alan Brittan, Sinclair's Director of Political Ads for more details @ 703-236-9673 **

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