Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by CampaignHQ: House GOP hopes bleeding has stopped as Dems expand map — Senate Leadership Fund adds $25 million in ads — Gun-control groups eye ballot measure success
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 26 Oct 2016 08:02:05 -0600
List-Id: <1376319_5982625.xt.local>

By Theodoric Meyer | 10/26/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard, Scott Bland and Maggie Severns

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE - "House GOP hopes bleeding has stopped as Democrats expand map," by POLITICO's Rachael Bade and Theodoric Meyer: "House Republicans are increasingly worried that Donald Trump's presidential collapse will cut deep into their 30-seat majority, as races that looked relatively safe months ago have suddenly become battlegrounds in the final weeks of the 2016 election. The blowback against Trump has practically eradicated the GOP's early-autumn hopes of keeping its House losses in the single digits. Some senior House Republicans are now predicting they could lose as many as 20 seats ... Yet while Democrats are expanding the election map and competing for more and more
 districts, they haven't been able to put many races away. Vulnerable Republicans like Reps. Bob Dold (Ill.), Rod Blum (Iowa) and Cresent Hardy (Nev.) have put up ferocious fights, forcing Democrats to continue spending money in their districts - and eating into the pot of cash Democrats are now trying to spread into far-flung, late-breaking House targets from southern Indiana to Montana."

- "The result: a chaotic, outsized House landscape packed with seats that could tip either way on Election Day, depending on how still-high numbers of undecided voters break in the final 13 days of a fast-moving race. 'I've got to think there is somewhere in the neighborhood of two dozen seats that could go either way,' said Ian Russell, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's political director." Full story.

'GUNS BLAZING' - "Panicking GOP making major last-minute Senate investment," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: Republicans, on the verge of losing the Senate, are plowing a mammoth $25 million into six races in a last-ditch attempt to stop Donald Trump from dragging the entire GOP down with him. The investment from Senate Leadership Fund, a powerful super PAC with ties to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, comes as Democrats shift resources from Hillary Clinton's now almost certain victory to down-ballot contests in hopes of delivering her a congressional majority.

- "In an interview on Tuesday afternoon, Steven Law, Senate Leadership Fund's president and a close McConnell ally, acknowledged Republicans have a tough road to keep their majority - and said the spending push was designed to close a growing funding deficit. In numerous Senate battles, Democrats are outspending Republicans by millions of dollars." The targets: Nevada ($7.5 million), Pennsylvania ($5.2 million), Indiana ($4.1 million), North Carolina ($3.2 million), New Hampshire ($2.6 million) and Missouri ($2.3 million). Full story.

DOWN THE BALLOT - "Ballot measure push buoys gun-control movement," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "Maine and Nevada voters are on the verge of tightening their gun laws via ballot initiatives this November, making the unlikely pair of states - one a haven for hunters, the other a Wild West of brothels and gambling not known for regulation - ground zero for the piecemeal approach gun-control groups are adopting around the country, as prospects of new federal legislation fade. Campaigns supporting universal gun background check measures in both states, flush with cash from a group founded by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, say they are cautiously optimistic about success on
 Election Day, despite the states' traditional pro-gun leanings." Full story. 

Days until the 2016 election: 13.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we are now tweeting constantly about campaigns and the Cubs: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

AD WATCH - "Republicans press new attacks versus Hassan late," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "Republicans are unleashing controversial new attacks on New Hampshire Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan with two weeks left to go, trying to damage her still-strong approval ratings and break open the tight Senate race. At a debate Tuesday, GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte for the first time attacked Hassan for her handling of the state's heroin and opioid epidemic. Ayotte had previously criticized outside groups for attacking Hassan over the epidemic ... Also Tuesday, the pro-Ayotte super PAC Granite State Solutions attacked Hassan for a sexual abuse scandal at the prestigious prep scandal her husband ran
 until his retirement earlier this year." Full story.

NEW THIS MORNING - New Toomey ad calls McGinty a 'blank check for Clinton: A new 15-second ad from GOP Sen. Pat Toomey attacks Democrat Katie McGinty as a "blank check" for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, essentially conceding the presidential contest. "Katie McGinty could not name one thing she opposes Hillary Clinton on," the ad's narrator says. "With McGinty, it's a blank check for everything Hillary wants. Pat Toomey will fight Clinton's liberal agenda." The Toomey campaign wouldn't discuss what markets the ad is running in. Watch it here.

ONCE MORE UNTO THE BREACH, DEAR FRENEMY - Ending Spending group reemerges in NV-03, this time backing Tarkanian: Full story.

FLORIDA FIGHT - "Top Democrats steamed that party letting Rubio skate," by POLITICO's Burgess Everett, Marc Caputo and Kevin Robillard: "Tensions are flaring at the highest rungs of the Democratic Party over its decision to pull out of the Florida Senate race, with Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid and Florida donors pressing to go all out to unseat Marco Rubio in the final days of the campaign, but New York Sen. Chuck Schumer and the party's Senate campaign arm arguing it's not feasible because of budget constraints." Full story.

MORE NEW ADS - Congressional Leadership Fund debuts new ads in MI-08, AZ-02: Congressional Leadership Fund and its sister nonprofit, American Action Network, are also hitting the air with new TV ads portraying two Democratic candidates as "rubber stamps" for the Democratic agenda. The ads don't directly raise the specter of a President Hillary Clinton - but they come close. "Michigan's middle class needs a check and balance on bad ideas from Washington - not another partisan hack," the narrator says in an ad attacking Democrat Suzanna Shkreli in Michigan, as images of Clinton and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi appear. And in an ad attacking Democrat Matt Heinz in Arizona, the narrator charges
 that "he'd be a rubber stamp for her" as an image of Pelosi appears. 

- American Action Network is spending $700,000 supporting GOP Rep. Mike Bishop in Michigan and Congressional Leadership Fund is spending $700,000 supporting GOP Rep. Martha McSally in Arizona. Neither is considered among the most endangered Republican incumbents. Watch the Michigan ad here. Watch the Arizona ad here.

- Congressional Leadership Fund is also going up with a new contrast ad in Virginia's 5th District, where Republican Tom Garrett and Democrat Jane Dittmar for a Republican-leaning open seat. "Conservative Tom Garrett is an Army veteran," the ad's narrator says. "He knows what it takes to keep America safe." "Liberal Jane Dittmar?" the narrator continues. "She thinks we can defeat ISIS with a PR campaign." The super PAC is spending $800,000 in the race. Watch the ad here.

- DCCC finally hits the air in WI-08: The DCCC canceled ad buys earlier this month backing Democrat Tom Nelson's campaign for an open swing seat in Wisconsin, as Nelson's poll numbers flagged in a district where Donald Trump was running relatively strong. Now the DCCC is finally hitting the air - with an ad that ties Nelson's Republican opponent to Trump. "No wonder Mike Gallagher says we have to support Donald Trump," the ad's narrator says. "Both Gallagher and Trump - a billionaire who admitted to avoiding paying taxes for 18 years - want to reduce the corporate tax rate." Watch the ad here.

- THE LIGHTER SIDE - Yoder ad featuring Royals legend George Brett debuts during World Series: "I'm George Brett, and I'm proud of my friend and our congressman, Kevin Yoder, and you should be too," Brett says in the ad that started running Tuesday, alongside the attack ads that have flooded KS-03 in recent weeks as the race between Democrat Jay Sidie and the GOP incumbent has heated up. "In baseball, when you have a good member on your team, you do everything you can to keep him," Brett finished. "And that's why I am still a Yoder voter." Watch the ad here. 

- Eggman debuts two new attack ads in CA-10: Democrat Michael Eggman is out with English- and Spanish-language TV ads attacking GOP Rep. Jeff Denham. "First, Congressman Jeff Denham bragged about helping Donald Trump get taxpayer money for his new hotel," the narrator says in the English-language ad. "Now, Trump brags about groping women without their consent." The ad includes a clip from Trump's "Access Hollywood" tape, followed by a second clip that may be even more devastating hit in the parched California district: Trump saying, "There is no drought, believe me." The Spanish-language version includes the clip of Trump calling Mexican immigrants "rapists" and "murderers." Watch the
 English-language ad here. Watch the Spanish-language ad here.

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ICYMI - Campaign Pro's latest ad roundup.

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Trump confronts Rust Belt rejection," by POLITICO's Katie Glueck: "Donald Trump once looked capable of turning the Rust Belt red. Now, two weeks before Election Day, his best hope is to turn it a lighter shade of blue. His prospects have dwindled down to just one industrial swing state - Ohio - and even that is no longer the comfortable bet for Trump it appeared to be as recently as a month ago. 'It is a toss-up,' said Mark Weaver, a veteran Ohio Republican operative, saying that the GOP nominee's momentum in September was halted amid the release of a tape on which Trump could be heard bragging about sexual assault. 'It was trending toward Trump. The tape stopped
 that, it did not reverse it.'" Full story.

- "Trump campaign turns infomercial," by POLITICO's Shane Goldmacher and Eli Stokols: "Donald Trump has less than two weeks left in his presidential campaign but his closing argument sounds as much about his business interests as his electoral ones. As Hillary Clinton and her surrogates fan out across the battleground states, Trump's schedule has found plenty of room for self-promotion that seems aimed well past Nov. 8, including two stops in two days promoting his hotels and the soft-launch of what many see as the prototype for a post-campaign Trump TV." Full story.

- "GOP's early vote worries mount," by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney: "Early voting returns continue to paint a bleak picture for Donald Trump. In Nevada, where early in-person voting began on Saturday, Democratic voters cast 23,000 more ballots than Republicans as of Tuesday afternoon, good for a 15-percentage-point edge in the nearly 150,000 ballots cast. (Mail-in and absentee ballots narrow the gap slightly). Polling and early voting returns suggest Democrats are maintaining an edge in North Carolina, and they are also slicing into a thinner-than-expected early vote lead for Republicans in Florida, who now lead by about half a percentage point; in 2012, the GOP held a much more significant edge
 two weeks from Election Day." Full story.

- "Clinton sticks with Obama's strict lobbying rules - for now," by POLITICO's Anna Palmer and Andrew Restuccia: "Hillary Clinton's presidential transition team has put in place strict rules that limit the influence of lobbyists in crafting the nominee's policy agenda, POLITICO has learned, an early indication that Clinton is unlikely to abandon all of the lobbying restrictions imposed by Barack Obama. The secretive transition operation, which has tried to keep a low profile in order to not appear overly confident in a Clinton victory, is limiting how federal lobbyists can work with the transition teams that are tasked with planning for the transfer of power at dozens of key agencies,
 according to several sources familiar with the operation." Full story.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "He then described the allegation with an expletive." - The Fairbanks Daily News-Miner's Matt Buxton couldn't quote everything GOP Rep. Don Young of Alaska said in a candidate forum on Monday.

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