Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Each party's Senate hopes rests on least-known candidate — GOP takes email issues down-ballot — House landscape six days out
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 02 Nov 2016 08:06:51 -0600
List-Id: <1376319_6007942.xt.local>

By Elena Schneider | 11/02/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard, Theodoric Meyer and Maggie Severns

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

BREAKOUT STAR? - "Senate Democratic hopes may rest on rising star Kander," by Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns: "Just weeks after Democrats lost the [Senate] in 2014, a virtually unknown Missouri Democrat named Jason Kander hopped a plane to D.C. to meet DSCC Chairman Jon Tester and his wife, Sharla, at a high-end Washington haunt. Kander was half the size of the towering Tester and, at 33 years old, about half Tester's age. But the pair had something in common: Both were Democrats from red states who had successfully outrun national political headwinds to win office ... Missouri had initially sat low on the DSCC's priorities for the 2016 election ... But Kander has always excelled at getting
 people on his side, from a surprise win in a statewide race four years ago to an Army tour in Kabul, where [he] so impressed war-weathered Afghan officials that they later requested his presence in meetings set up by his commanding officer."

- "Tester was no different. He left his meeting with Kander newly encouraged that a Democrat could win Missouri and, in the process, expand Democrats' Senate map." And now, "the battle for the Senate and the race for Missouri both remain in doubt with a week to go - six different races show the Democratic and Republican candidates just a few percentage points apart, and the latest survey in Missouri found Kander only 1 percentage point behind Blunt. If he wins, Kander could be the first Millennial senator and a Democratic Party star to boot." Full story. 

- YOUNG AND IN ... THE SENATE? - "One Senate GOP hopeful's under-the-radar approach," by POLITICO's Seung Min Kim and Maggie Severns: "Rep. Todd Young may well become Indiana's next senator, despite running an under-the-radar campaign against a Democratic heavyweight in a state where nearly half of the voters still have no opinion of him. Young's secret? Stay out of the national spotlight and let the race turn into a referendum on opponent Evan Bayh, the respected former senator and governor who's nonetheless been dogged by questions about his lucrative post-Senate career and skepticism about his Indiana residency. ... It's a far cry from earlier in the year, when Young - a former Marine
 Corps intelligence officer who can't resist mentioning his military background anywhere he goes - defeated tea partier Marlin Stutzman in a GOP primary and was expected to easily vanquish Democrat Baron Hill this fall. Then Bayh launched his surprise bid in July, and many early polls suggested he would trounce Young, but the contest has tightened sharply in the state - one of a half-dozen that will determine which party controls the Senate next year."

- "Democrats hope Young has already hit his ceiling of support against Bayh, a well-known and popular public figure whose deep connections to Indiana politics helped buoy him to an early lead. But as the percentage of voters with a negative view of Bayh continues to rise over time, the former senator is racing against the clock in the lead-up to Election Day." Full story. 

EMAILS, EMAILS, EMAILS - "GOP campaigns pounce on local email issues," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "Republicans in several key statewide races are spending the final days of the election talking about emails - and not only Hillary Clinton's. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin's Senate races, and in the Montana governor's race, the GOP is attacking Democratic candidates over email scandals that they say resemble Clinton's - though the parallels can be vague. And with FBI Director James Comey breathing new life into news about Clinton's private server late last week, Republicans hope the ads can add to their argument they're in the best position to serve as a check on a Clinton presidency."
 Full story. 

HOUSE MAP - "October surprises muddy House landscape," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: "House Republicans and Democrats are both flying blind into the storm of Election Day after another tumultuous week in the presidential campaign. Last week's revelation that emails related to Hillary Clinton's use of a private server were back under FBI scrutiny was the latest in a string of unwelcome October surprises for both parties, coming just as most House campaigns were wrapping up their private pre-election polling. ... [B]oth sides remain nervous about how those episodes could affect turnout in the battleground districts, though the tightening presidential race has given Republicans hope that
 their worst-case scenario - a late Trump collapse that caused the bottom to follow out for candidates across the country - won't come to pass." Full story. 

Days until the 2016 election: 6. Days until Elena Schneider's birthday: 5. 

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet about campaigns and occasionally about imitating Harry Caray: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

FIRST IN SCORE - ADS WAY DOWN THE BALLOT - Giffords group targets Minnesota legislature: Americans for Responsible Solutions, the anti-gun violence group founded by former Rep. Gabby Giffords and her husband Capt. Mark Kelly, launched a six-figure TV and digital ad buy in an effort to flip the Republican-controlled state House in order to pass background checks legislation. The group is targeting 13 state Senate and House seats, with four state House seats that will see TV ads. In one race, ARS goes after Republican state Rep. Sarah Anderson, who they say "stands with the gun lobby." Watch the ad here. 

- Soros investing millions in November district attorney races: Democratic megadonor George Soros has poured money into more district attorney races on the November ballot. In Colorado, the Soros-funded Colorado Safety and Justice PAC spent $1.5 million in October running ads against District Attorney Pete Weir in the Denver suburbs, and boosting Democrat Jake Lilly. Meanwhile, in Houston, the Texas branch of Soros' state PAC network took in three-quarters of a million dollars from him in October to boost Democrat Kim Ogg for Harris County DA. And in Phoenix, Soros-backed groups are spending against both Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio and the county's Republican district attorney, Bill
 Montgomery.

FIRST IN SCORE - RGA attacks Justice on illegal immigration: A new ad from the Republican Governors' Association attacks Democrat Jim Justice, saying police twice found illegal immigrants working at his resort, the Greenbrier. The ad also features a Hillary Clinton-Jim Justice face morph. "Just like Hillary Clinton, Jim Justice thinks he's above the law," the narrator says. Watch the ad here. 

FIRST IN SCORE: Senate Leadership Fund, End Citizens United, Feingold campaign air new spots in crowded Wisconsin -- Senate Leadership Fund is out with its first and possibly only ad in Wisconsin's Senate race, attacking Democratic former Sen. Russ Feingold over the Veterans Affairs' scandal. "Long before the headlines, Russ Feingold voted 13 times against our veterans," the male narrator says. "Russ Feingold. He's just a career politician. That's why we fired him in the first place," the narrator concludes. The ad is part of a $2 million buy from the main GOP Senate super PAC. Watch the ad here.  

- And End Citizens United is spending $500,000 on ad attacking GOP Sen. Ron Johnson for taking took a corporate payout and votes to protect tax breaks for big oil. "A Wisconsin senator protecting tax breaks for big oil companies? That's Ron Johnson. That's Washington. And he fits right in," a narrator concludes. Watch the ad here. 

- And Democrat Russ Feingold is out with a new ad featuring a parade of Wisconsites getting out of the van he used to drive around the state. The ad attacks Johnson on Social Security and trade. Watch the ad here.

MORE ADS - NRCC attacks Rep. Ami Bera in new TV ad: Republicans are going after Bera, whose father is serving jail time for violating campaign finance laws, for a different "scandal." The ad says Bera "wanted to eliminate" the child tax credit, "reinstate the marriage penalty" and backed "higher taxes on your retirement." Watch the ad here.

JOKES ON JOKES - "Mica laughs his way to possible defeat," by POLITICO's Rachael Bade in Orlando, Fla.: "'I don't have a campaign manager,' [Rep. John Mica] chuckled during a speech that was supposed to inspire volunteers to get out the vote. ...The 12-term incumbent may be in denial, but his political future is no laughing matter. After sailing to easy reelection for more than two decades without a serious Democratic challenger, the ex-chairman of the House Transportation Committee has suddenly found his congressional seat in serious jeopardy. Thanks to a new congressional district, about a quarter of his constituents don't know him. A good chunk of those new voters are Democrats, turning
 the 73-year-old conservative's formerly red district into one evenly split between the two parties for the first time ever." Full story. 

POLLING DATA - Monmouth: Blunt, Kander virtually deadlocked in Missouri: "GOP Sen. Roy Blunt is locked in an extremely tight battle with Democrat Jason Kander in Missouri's key Senate race, with 47 percent to Kander's 46 percent in a new poll from Monmouth University. The poll reflects an increasingly close race between Blunt and Kander, one of seven too-close-to-call races that will decide the battle for the Senate majority. Donald Trump is expected to win Missouri handily - and he holds a 52 percent to 38 percent lead over Hillary Clinton in the Monmouth poll." Full story. 

- Elon: Burr leads, governor's race tied: "The Elon poll also shows close races down-ballot. including likely voters leaning toward a candidate, incumbent Republican Sen. Richard Burr had a slight advantage over Democratic challenger Deborah Ross, 45 percent to 42 percent. Eight percent of likely voters were undecided or refused to answer, and 4 percent were backing the Libertarian candidate. The closely watched gubernatorial race was deadlocked between Democratic state Attorney General Roy Cooper and incumbent Republican Pat McCrory, who are at 46 percent each." Full story. 

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Trump claims momentum but data favors Clinton," by POLITICO's Eli Stokols and Gabriel Debenedetti: "Donald Trump is claiming a surge of late momentum behind his presidential bid as Hillary Clinton rushes on air with TV ads for the first time in four blue states she supposedly already locked up. With less than a week to go, Clinton, with $153 million in cash to spend, is fighting to reclaim the narrative. And she's taking nothing for granted in Colorado and Virginia, two swing states where she confidently pulled down ads months ago, and New Mexico and Michigan, blue states where Trump is making a late play amid some signs that the race is tightening. Just as her
 own behavior may look more skittish than the typical candidate with about an 80 percent chance of winning the White House, Trump's outward confidence also obscures the reality of a race that still favors his opponent, even after last week's FBI shocker." Full story. 

- "FBI never asked Clinton aides for all their devices," by POLITICO's Josh Gerstein: "The FBI never asked Hillary Clinton's top aides to turn over all the computers and smartphones they used while Clinton was secretary of state, an omission that is now triggering questions from Republican lawmakers. While the FBI made a concerted effort to obtain all the computers that were used as Clinton's private server and ultimately asked two of Clinton's lawyers for laptops used to review her email messages, investigators never requested or demanded all equipment her top staffers used for work purposes during her four years at State, a source familiar with the investigation told POLITICO." Full story.

- "How politicians hide their spending from the public," by POLITICO's Shane Goldmacher: "Donald Trump has plastered Facebook with millions of dollars worth of ads in recent months, an all-out effort to lure new donors and supporters. But his campaign filings from August, September and October tell a different story: $0 spent on Facebook. The vast discrepancy is possible because Trump has leveraged an increasingly popular loophole for politicians seeking to outmaneuver an outmoded campaign-finance system: routing their spending through consulting firms to obscure the ultimate destination of their dollars - keeping the public in the dark about facts as basic as who they're paying and how
 much they're paying them." Full story. 

- "Priebus gets a challenger in RNC chair's race," by POLITICO's Kenneth P. Vogel and Kyle Cheney: "A self-styled outsider conservative is preparing to challenge Reince Priebus for the leadership of the RNC if Donald Trump loses next week's election. Preibus has worked hard to lock down enough support to handily win reelection if he chooses to run for reelection, but he's not going to go unchallenged. Ned Ryun, a career GOP operative who is the son of former five-term Republican Rep. Jim Ryun, intends to run for head of the RNC if Trump loses and Priebus seeks reelection, two sources familiar with Ned Ryun's planning tell POLITICO." Full story.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I don't know which is worse: chemotherapy or this." - Rep. John Mica's wife Pat, who's battling cancer, about the political attack ads aired against her husband, POLITICO reported.

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