Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Rep. Scott Garrett goes it alone in New Jersey — More polls, polls, polls — Debate night in New Hampshire, and a great WBUR poll for Ayotte
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 03 Nov 2016 08:04:20 -0600
List-Id: <1376319_6012124.xt.local>

By Elena Schneider | 11/03/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard, Maggie Severns and Theodoric Meyer

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

HE'S THE (ONLY) ONE - "The cavalry isn't coming for Scott Garrett," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer: "For months, GOP Rep. Scott Garrett has endured wave after wave of Democratic attacks in his New Jersey district: TV ads, mailers, billboards, even an airplane trailing a banner calling him a bigot. The Republican Party response: nothing. While the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC with close ties to House GOP leadership, have poured tens of million of dollars into House races across the country, they haven't spent a penny to defend Garrett, who's among the most endangered Republicans in the House. ... Garrett, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, alienated many in his
 own party last year when he told colleagues that he wouldn't pay his NRCC dues because the committee backs gay candidates. But it has infuriated Garrett's conservative allies, who worry the NRCC's inaction is putting Garrett's seat in jeopardy. 'It's surprising and disappointing,' said David McIntosh, the president of the Club for Growth, which has endorsed Garrett." Full story. 

SHY STUDY - Test discounts likelihood of "shy" Trump voters, via POLITICO's Steve Shepard: "Donald Trump has insisted for months that polls are failing to capture the breadth of his support because some of his backers won't admit it to a pollster over the telephone. He's wrong. According to a new study commissioned by POLITICO and conducted this past weekend by Morning Consult, a hidden army of Trump voters that's undetected by the polls is unlikely to materialize on Election Day. The study - which was comprised of interviews with likely voters conducted over the phone with a live interviewer, and other interviews conducted online without a personal interaction - showed only a slight,
 not-statistically-significant difference in their effect on voters' preferences for president." Full story. 

DEBATE NIGHT - "Ayotte, Hassan clash, strive to avoid mistakes in final debate," by WMUR's Kirk Enstrom: "U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte and Gov. Maggie Hassan clashed on several issues Wednesday night in the last televised debate before Election Day as they sought to avoid making any mistakes in the tight race. Democrat Hassan is hoping to unseat Republican Ayotte in the U.S. Senate, and she worked to portray her opponent as acting in lockstep with Senate Republicans. Ayotte responded by describing herself as one of the most bipartisan members of the Senate while criticizing Hassan as someone who would be ineffective if elected." Full story from WMUR. 

- POLL POSITION - WBUR has great news for Republicans in New Hampshire: A new poll conducted for WBUR finds Donald Trump at 40 percent to Hillary Clinton's 39 percent in New Hampshire. Libertarian Gary Johnson is drawing a whopping 10 percent. And the good news for the GOP continues downballot, where Sen. Kelly Ayotte leads Democrat Maggie Hassan, 51 percent to 45 percent. In the governor's race, Republican Chris Sununu leads 49 percent to 44 percent. A majority - 54 percent - of voters said they have heard a "great deal" about the FBI's actions, and another 31 percent said they had heard a fair amount. The poll is an outlier for now, since polling showing Trump close in New Hampshire has
 been hard to come by. MassINC conducted the poll of 500 likely voters from Oct. 29 to Nov. 1. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. 

WILD DEBATE IN LOUISIANA - "Arguments, attacks, more: U.S. Senate candidates take final shots in rowdy debate at Dillard in New Orleans," by The Advocate's Tyler Bridges: "Police pepper-sprayed protesters outside Georges Auditorium during a televised U.S. Senate debate at Dillard University on Wednesday night, while inside, the target of their venom, David Duke, became embroiled in arguments with the other candidates and even the moderator, WVUE-TV anchor John Snell. Snell and the three journalists on the panel tried to keep the 60-minute debate on track with questions about the federal health care law, taxes, Social Security, the U.S. Supreme Court and the candidates' political leanings."
 Full story.

- Duke clashes with moderator: "Let me rebut!" 

Days until the 2016 election: 5. Elena Schneider's birthday: 4. 

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet about campaigns and being in glass cases of emotion: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

NEW TODAY ... POLITICO'S TRANSITION TRACKER: POLITICO will deliver breaking news notifications on the incoming administration - directly to your iPhone's lock screen. Using the unique capabilities and speed of Apple Wallet, Transition Tracker alerts users to all the key personnel and policy decisions as they're made by the president-elect. This is currently available only for iPhone users via Apple Wallet. Download the pass, available for readers using iPhones, here: politico.com/politico-transition-tracker

MORE POLLS - FULL ROUNDUP - Quinnipiac University poll: "In Florida, Clinton tops Trump by a single percentage point, 46 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters. ... Clinton has a slightly wider lead in North Carolina, where she has 47 percent support to Trump's 44 percent. ... [In Pennsylvania, Clinton] leads 48 percent to 43 percent. ...Trump, however, leads by the same margin in Ohio, where he has 46 percent support to Clinton's 41 percent." Full story. 

- Marquette Law School poll in Wisconsin: "... Clinton has a 6-point lead in a four-way race with third-party candidates included, 46 percent to 40 percent. ... In the Senate race, Feingold's lead over Johnson has declined to just a single point in a three-way matchup with a Libertarian Party candidate included. Feingold now leads Johnson, 45 percent to 44 percent - down from a 2-point edge earlier in October." Full story. 

- CNN/ORC polls: In Pennsylvania, Clinton leads Trump, 48 percent to 44 percent. In Florida, Clinton has a slight lead with 49 percent to his 47 percent. Clinton trails in Nevada with 43 percent to Trump's 49 percent. In Arizona, Trump leads by 5 points, 49 percent to Clinton's 44 percent. On the Senate side ... "In Nevada, the survey found that Republican Rep. Joe Heck leads Democratic former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto among likely voters by 2 points, 49 percent to 47 percent. In Florida, Republican Sen. Marco Rubio leads his Democratic challenger, Rep. Patrick Murphy, by just 1 point, according to the survey. Rubio had the support of 49 percent of surveyed likely
 voters, while Murphy took 48 percent. The survey was better news for Democrats' Senate hopes in Pennsylvania, where Katie McGinty is challenging Republican Sen. Pat Toomey for his seat. McGinty received support from 51 percent of surveyed likely voters in the poll, while Toomey got 46 percent." Full story. 

- Monmouth University poll: Hillary Clinton clings to a 4-point lead over Donald Trump in vote-rich Pennsylvania, 48 percent to 44 percent. Democrat Katie McGinty is leading incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, 47 percent to 44 percent. Full story. 

- ABC News/Washington Post poll: "Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are deadlocked in the first ABC News/Washington Post daily tracking poll conducted entirely after FBI Director James Comey informed Congress about additional evidence related to Clinton's use of a private email server while secretary of state, though the resurgence of Clinton's email scandal seems to have had little impact overall on the race. The poll, which includes interviews conducted last Friday through Monday, shows Clinton and Trump both at 46 percent." Full story. 

THE CLOSING ARGUMENTS - VoteVets out with a new ad buy in Missouri: The veterans group is extending its buy boosting Democrat Jason Kander with an additional $900,000 statewide TV ad buy. The ad contrasts what Kander and Sen. Roy Blunt did post-9/11. Watch the ad here. 

- DCCC continues tying Comstock to Trump: The DCCC says that "Donald Trump opposes background checks that will keep guns from terrorists, and Barbara Comstock agrees" in a new ad. Comstock disavowed Trump in October, but the ad doesn't mention it. "LuAnn Bennett will represent us," a narrator says at the end of the ad. Watch the ad here. 

- Portman ends with a positive spot on trade: GOP Sen. Rob Portman's final ad of the cycle features him talking about an issue that in the past has been one of Democrats' most damaging lines of attack: trade. While walking through a flag factory in Ohio, Portman says that "people here and workers all across Ohio deserve a fair shot to compete. I'll continue to stand up for them and to fight back against countries like China when they threaten Ohio jobs." Watch the ad here. 

- Gianforte continues defending residency: Montana gubernatorial candidate Greg Gianforte talks about his life in Montana in a new ad, amidst ongoing attacks from Democrats over not having been born there. "Special interest groups that don't care about our state are attacking me for where I was born," Gianforte says. He talks through his history with the state and says that "like a lot of Montanans I wasn't born here, but I got here just as fast as I could." Watch the ad here. 

- Senate Majority PAC slams Sen. Kelly Ayotte on women's health care: The flagship Democratic super PAC is out with an ad that says the Republican incumbent voted for "ending funding for Planned Parenthood, taking away our right to choose" and "restricting our health care choices." The ad says Ayotte "says she's for women but it's just an act." Watch the ad here. 

- Ross swipes at Burr's 'bullseye' comment - "Sen. Richard Burr's Democratic opponent is up with a new digital ad, hitting the North Carolina Republican for joking about gun owners putting a "bullseye" on Hillary Clinton. ... [The ad] puts together several news clips with anchors talking about Burr's "bullseye" comment and comparing it one Donald Trump made a few weeks ago." Full story from BuzzFeed.

ICYMI - Direct to camera: Campaign Pro's ad roundup," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard. Full story. 

ETHICS COMPLAINTS - "FBI investigating alleged donor scheme tied to Senate candidate," by The Hill's Jonathan Swan: "The FBI is investigating an alleged illegal donation scheme involving a wealthy Saudi family that supports Democratic Florida Senate candidate Patrick Murphy. The Hill has found no evidence that Murphy himself was involved in, or even aware of, the alleged scheme. The Murphy campaign declined to say whether the candidate is aware of the FBI probe, but the campaign said neither Murphy nor his campaign staff is being investigated." Full story. 

CHECK YOUR ADDRESS - "Records say Indiana candidate was obligated to live in 5 states," The Associated Press' Brian Slodysko and Tom Davies: "When Joseph 'Trey' Hollingsworth III set his sights on political office in Indiana, opponents quickly criticized him as a multimillionaire carpetbagger from Tennessee using his family's wealth to buy a reliably Republican seat in Congress. Now an Associated Press review of public records shows that Hollingsworth's company filed papers in five states that legally obligate the 33-year-old executive to live outside Indiana in order to represent his business interests." Full story. 

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ - "Clinton and Trump beg base to get excited," by POLITICO's Eli Stokols: "With six days to blunt Donald Trump's late momentum, Hillary Clinton is pulling out all the stops to get black and Hispanic voters to turn out in greater numbers, hoping to buoy her chances in battleground states like Florida, Nevada and Arizona. With early voting data showing lagging enthusiasm among African-American voters compared to President Barack Obama's two campaigns - though higher Latino numbers - Obama hit the trail with an impassioned speech in critical North Carolina underlining the parallel between Trump's false claims of potential voter fraud in inner cities and local efforts by
 Republicans in the state to make it harder for blacks to vote." Full story. 

- "Pence: We're not working with RNC to monitor polls," by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney: "Mike Pence declared confidently over the summer that the Trump campaign would be working hand-in-glove with the Republican National Committee to prevent voter fraud. Now, in a court filing, the GOP's vice presidential nominee says he misspoke. After facing a legal threat from Democrats, Pence and the RNC are disavowing his comments, with both insisting that the RNC has no role whatsoever in the Trump camp's ballot security operation." Full story. 

- "Meet the Ivanka Voter," by BuzzFeed's Anne Helen Petersen: "There's a Trump supporter you rarely see at rallies, but whose existence has been affirmed, again and again, through polling. Call her the Ivanka Voter. ...That's because the Ivanka Voter has internalized the fact that voting for Trump is not something you do in public: either because she thinks talking about politics is tacky (still a prominent belief, even today), or because she simply doesn't want to deal with others lecturing her about her vote. As Jennifer, a fiftysomething woman from Rochester, Michigan, told me, 'It's almost as if it's a moral judgment.'" Full story. 

- "Trump transition team pulls out the stops," by POLITICO's Andrew Restuccia and Nancy Cook: "Donald Trump's presidential transition team has kicked into higher gear as the race for the White House tightens, with a team of conservative Washington policy wonks fleshing out plans to dismantle President Barack Obama's legacy. What once seemed like a futile exercise in preparing for a government that might never be is suddenly becoming very real for the 100-plus Republicans on Trump's transition team. The group - made up of an unlikely hodgepodge of conservative think tank fellows, former Mitt Romney advisers and die-hard Trump supporters - has been working at a frenzied pace to put the
 finishing touches on a road map for the nominee's first 100 days." Full story. 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "It happened: @Cubs win World Series. That's change even this South Sider can believe in. Want to come to the White House before I leave?" - @POTUS, noted White Sox fan, tweeting late last night at the World Series champion Chicago Cubs.

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