Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: ELECTION DAY: IT IS HERE — Clinton, Trump makes final appeals — GOP Senate campaigns rely on independent ground game — When the polls close in each state
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2016 09:03:04 -0600
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By Theodoric Meyer | 11/08/2016 10:00 AM EDT

With Scott Bland, Kevin Robillard and Maggie Severns

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

ELECTION DAY - "Obamas combine forces with the Clintons to fend off Trump," by POLITICO's Gabriel Debenedetti in Philadelphia: "Silencing the vast Philadelphia crowd with his final campaign trail address as president, Barack Obama framed Hillary Clinton as a guardian of his legacy as the clock ticked down on her long, turbulent ride to the White House. 'With just one more day to to go, we now have the chance to elect a 45th president who will build on our progress, who will finish the job, who already has the respect of leaders around the world and the people they serve,' said the nostalgic-sounding Obama, speaking across the way from Independence Hall in front of 33,000 supporters, the
 applause rippling through the Clinton campaign's largest crowd as it took seconds to reach the stage." Full story.

- "The day North Carolina became the center of the political universe," by POLITICO's Katie Glueck in Raleigh, N.C.: "Tim Kaine stumped in Wilmington. Donald Trump pressed his case at a boisterous rally here in the state capital. Seventy miles to the west, former President Bill Clinton headlined an event in Greensboro. And all that took place before the planned midnight blow-out rally for Hillary Clinton, featuring the nominee herself and A-list guests like Lady Gaga and Jon Bon Jovi. On a frenzied election eve, North Carolina voters felt the full brunt of its role as a presidential fulcrum, a state recognized by both campaigns as essential to Trump's path to the White House." Full story.

- "Clinton's day on the brink," by POLITICO's Annie Karni in Allendale, Mich.: "Hillary Clinton spent Monday on the precipice of history, or about to be dealt a defeat that will not only be the most devastating rejection of her long career, but also the most shocking. In the final 24 hours of a 575-day slog of a campaign, Clinton's campaign is confident, as most national polls gave Clinton a slight edge over Donald Trump. A Bloomberg poll showed her leading by three percentage points, a Fox News poll put her up four. Some Clinton operatives were feeling confident enough on Monday to casually debate among themselves whether or not Trump was likely to make the traditional concession phone
 call to Clinton on Tuesday night. (They were split.)" Full story.

- "Record-breaking early voting fuels Democratic optimism," by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney and Katie Glueck: "More than 46 million votes have been cast in advance of Election Day, breaking records in state after state and suggesting the prospect of a heightened Hispanic turnout that could upend politics in several battleground states. While there's no way to know whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump is ahead, the available data about who has voted so far, and where, provides some insight into what the results might hold. There are signs of an unusually diverse electorate, marked by robust Hispanic numbers in places like Florida and Nevada. Women seem to have turned out in disproportionately
 high numbers in some states. In others, Republicans appear to have made late gains." Full story.

- "Giving it all for Hillary and Donald," by POLITICO's Shane Goldmacher: "It is a life of long days and short nights. From senior strategists to traveling aides, they have missed children's birthdays and their own honeymoons. Weddings have been rescheduled, missed and, yes, canceled. There have been births and deaths. It is an all-encompassing life of 18 months (or more) - all while being told they are working for one of the two most unpopular presidential candidates in history. Some, quite literally, have fought for their very lives without taking time to step away, so sure that the work is bigger than themselves." Full story.

GROUND GAME - "Senate GOP puts hope in independent field efforts," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard in Miami: "Republicans desperate to save the Senate, even if Donald Trump is wiped out in his presidential bid, have funded get-out-the-vote efforts separate from the RNC to preserve the party's foothold in power this year. The NRSC and Americans for Prosperity, a sprawling nonprofit arm of the Koch brothers' conservative political network, have each spent months and millions of dollars trying to turn out voters they believe will vote for GOP Senate candidates even if those voters aren't enthused by the presidential race."

- "The NRSC has raised and spent $8 million through its Targeted State Victory program, which was led by North Carolina's Thom Tillis and Colorado's Cory Gardner - conveniently, the two men competing for the NRSC's top job next cycle. It also spent another $7.7 million on direct transfers to state parties and candidates. While both it and AFP's efforts pale in comparison to the RNC's efforts or to the Democrats' unified ground game, GOP operatives hope they could make the difference." Full story. 

HOUR BY HOUR - When the polls close in each state:

- At 6 p.m Eastern, polls start closing in Indiana and Kentucky.

- At 7 p.m. Eastern, polls close in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia; start closing in Alabama, Florida and New Hampshire; and finish closing in Indiana and Kentucky.

- At 7:30 p.m. Eastern, polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia.

- At 8 p.m. Eastern, polls close in Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Tennessee; start closing in Kansas, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota and Texas; and finish closing in Alabama, Florida and New Hampshire.

- At 8:30 p.m. Eastern, polls close in Arkansas.

- At 9 p.m. Eastern, polls close in Arizona, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin and Wyoming and finish closing in Kansas, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota and Texas. 

- At 10 p.m. Eastern, polls close in Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah and start closing in Idaho and Oregon.

- At 11 p.m. Eastern, polls close in California, Hawaii and Washington state; start closing in Alaska; and finish closing in Idaho and Oregon.

- At 1 a.m. Eastern, polls finish closing in Alaska.

- Two House races to watch when the polls start closing: Democrats are almost certain to pick up at least a few seats in the House tonight. While we won't know exactly how many until late in the evening, there are two races in states where the polls close early that could serve as bellwethers of how well the party is likely to do. In Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m., watch GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock's race, which has drawn more than $13 million in outside spending. Trump is likely to lose the well-educated district, which has the highest median income of any seat in the country. If Comstock holds on, it could be a good sign for other incumbent Republicans fighting in anti-Trump
 territory. And in Indiana's 9th District, where the polls close at 6 p.m., watch the race for the seat GOP Rep. Todd Young is vacating to run for Senate. Trump is almost certain to carry the district, which Mitt Romney won with 57 percent of the vote in 2012. If Democrat Shelli Yoder wins, it could bode well for other Democrats running in Trump country, especially for open seats.

Days until the 2016 election: 0.

Days until the 2017 election: 364. (Too soon?) 

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we'll be tweeting tonight until the wee hours: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @theodoricmeyer and @maggieseverns.

POLITICO'S TRANSITION TRACKER: With hours before the polls close, POLITICO already has you covered with the latest breaking news in the transition of power in Washington. Stay on top of the latest in personnel hires, appointments and announcements specific to the new administration by signing up for our new mobile product available for iPhone users via Apple Wallet. Download the pass here.

DATA POINTS - "Exit polls will skip 22 states this year," by POLITICO's Steven Shepard: "The consortium of news networks that commissions election exit polls will survey 28 states on Tuesday, eschewing state-level polls in many smaller and less-competitive states. In recent elections, the National Election Pool - which includes The Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Fox News and NBC News - and Edison Research, which conducts the exit poll, have eliminated state-level surveys in an effort to cut costs. In 2012, there were 31 state-level exit polls, with exit pollsters skipping 19 states, plus the District of Columbia." Full story.

WAY DOWN-BALLOT - What to watch in state legislatures on election night: Democrats have the bulk of the opportunities to play offense in state legislatures this election, after the GOP dealt them major setbacks in the 2010 and 2014 waves. Among the chambers Democrats are targeting and Republicans are keeping an eye on for defense: State Senates in Arizona, Colorado, Maine, New York and Washington; state Houses in Minnesota and New Mexico, and both chambers in Nevada and New Hampshire, among others. "The Southwest could be a really interesting story," said Nick Rathod, the executive director of the progressive State Innovation Exchange, which is preparing major post-election policy pushes in
 the states. He expects President Barack Obama's recent slew of down-ballot endorsements to help Democrats. "That will go a long way," Rathod said. 

- Republican State Leadership Committee president Matt Walter said the GOP is equipped with good, district-fitting candidates in blue and purple states. "In 2012, there were 410 legislative seats around the country carried by Obama and a Republican [state legislator]," Walter said. And the GOP has expansion opportunities too: Republicans could potentially gain unified control of two state governments by capturing the Iowa Senate and the Kentucky House, and they are also chasing the Washington House. See the RLCC's full maps of target states here. See the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's full list of 2016 target chambers here.

- Post-election policy implications: GOP gains in Kentucky, where full control has eluded the party, could open the door for conservative measures on "economic development, right-to-work, education reform, and more," Walter said; state House Democrats have blocked GOP legislation on those issues in recent years. In other states, though, Democratic gains could open the door for a wave of pent-up policy proposals that the party has not been able to move in recent years, as its state legislative power has waned. "One of the things I think there'll be an opportunity to do is expand voting and opportunity to access the ballot, whether it's automatic voter registration, same-day voting, mail-in
 ballots, felony re-enfranchisement, things like that," said Rathod. "One thing we'd like to see is that being one of the first things that Ds take on. It'll be front of mind post election with the long lines and things like that." Rathod also flagged "working- and middle-class economic policies," like paid leave, and criminal justice reform as policy areas to expect action from legislative Democrats in the states at the beginning of next year.

IF YOU WANT TO CATCH UP - Here's our best reporting on Senate and House races this year:

- Arizona: "McCain battles Trump's shadow in Arizona," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer

- Florida: "Top Democrats steamed that party letting Rubio skate," by POLITICO's Burgess Everett, Marco Caputo and Kevin Robillard.

- Indiana: "The collapse of Evan Bayh," by POLITICO's Seung Min Kim.

- Missouri: "Senate Dem hopes may rest on rising star Kander," by Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns.

- Nevada: "Nevada ground games could decide Senate control," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider.

- New Hampshire: "Ayotte goes local during summer of Trump," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard.

- North Carolina: "North Carolina's Senate race gets personal," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider.

- Pennsylvania: "Pennsylvania's split-screen Senate race," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard.

- Wisconsin: "Johnson surges for fight to the finish in Wisconsin," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard.

- California: "California turns into a House GOP nightmare again," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider.

- CA-49: "Embattled Issa: I'd advise Clinton if she asked," by POLITICO's Heather Caygle.

- FL-07: "Top GOP congressman laughs his way to possible defeat," by POLITICO's Rachael Bade.

- IL-10: "Suburban Republicans try to outrun Trump collapse," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer.

- KS-03: "Democrats face sudden scrutiny in late-breaking House races," by Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns.

- ME-02: "House Democrats court Trump voters in rural districts," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer.

- Minnesota: "Ryan stump's on Minnesota's miniature House battlefield," by Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns.

- NJ-05: "The cavalry isn't coming for Scott Garrett," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer.

- NY-22: "Independents roil two House battleground races," by Campaign Pro's Theodoric Meyer

- VA-10: "Comstock fights to hold seat in changing D.C. suburbs," by Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns.

CANARY IN A TROLL MINE - "Inside 4chan's Election Day mayhem and misinformation playbook," by BuzzFeed News' Joseph Bernstein: "In the weeks before election day, pro-Trump, alt-right trolls have leveraged the scale of social media to spread misinformation aimed at keeping Clinton voters away from the polls - most prominently by disseminating official-looking, but totally bogus, campaign ads that encourage people to vote for Clinton by text message. ... Posts on 4chan's politically incorrect message board - a nerve center of the alt-right from which many of these posts appear to have originated - detail a multi-pronged campaign of election day social media deception and mayhem, intending to
 confuse, slow, and disenfranchise Clinton voters." Full story.

ONE LAST AD - Obama cuts late web ad for McGinty: President Barack Obama, in a web ad responding to GOP Sen. Pat Toomey's new spot featuring praise from the president, aims to remind voters he actually supports Democrat Katie McGinty in Pennsylvania's Senate race. "It's been a long campaign with a lot of back and forth, but I want to make sure there is no confusion: I strongly support Katie McGinty for U.S. Senate," Obama says in the ad. "Her opponent will fall in behind Donald Trump. But Katie will stand with us." Watch it here.

SCORE INTERVIEW - Pearson set expectations for governors' races: Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard chatted with DGA Executive Director Elisabeth Pearson over the weekend, and she engaged in some light expectations-setting. Noting that Republicans originally hoped to put Washington state and Oregon on the gubernatorial map, Pearson said Democrats would consider it a successful night if they won three of the seven states most observers see as truly competitive: North Carolina, Indiana, New Hampshire, Vermont, Montana, West Virginia and Missouri. "I think winning five of the original nine would be a great night," Pearson said. Public polling shows Democrat tied or leading in every state but
 Vermont. "Going into this cycle and knowing we were defending a lot of really tough seats, I don't think we could feel like we could be in a better position than this," Pearson said.

LATE DONATION - Adelsons cut last-minute checks to House candidates: Sheldon Adelson, the billionaire Republican donor, and his wife, Miriam, have cut $2,700 check to several GOP candidates in tough races in the final days of the campaign, including GOP Reps. Frank Guinta of New Hampshire and Barbara Comstock of Virginia, and John Faso, who's running for an open seat in New York. Sheldon's daughter, Shelley, and Miriam's daughter, Yasmin, and her husband all cut checks to Comstock as well. 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Go vote because believe me, if we don't win, all of us, honestly, we've all wasted our time," he continued. "They may say good things about us as a movement. It won't mean a damn thing." - Donald Trump, via The Wall Street Journal's Beth Reinhard.

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