Subject: USGLC 2016 Election Analysis
From: "Liz Schrayer, USGLC" <[email-masked]>
To: "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 09 Nov 2016 19:17:43 -0600

Hunter-

Last night's unexpected election results sent shockwaves across
our nation and world. While the election will bring significant change
to the White House, the composition of the House and Senate remains
largely the same - many USGLC allies and friends will be
returning for the 115th Congress, and the new Members include loads of
supportive voices.

After meeting with nearly every incoming freshmen member of Congress
and numerous meetings with President-elect Trump's campaign and
Transition Team, we look forward to working with the new
Administration and Congress to build on the bipartisan support for
American global leadership through development and diplomacy.

As we do after every election, here is our 2016 Election Analysis of
what last night's results mean, including our top takeaways,
profiles of the new Members, and a look at the transition.  A quick
snapshot is below.
http://action.usglc.org/site/R?i=eH43YHVQfARKVkiD-hFC7A

Click Here for the Full Report
http://action.usglc.org/site/R?i=SB2HiOMBKQgYm2WXjEzB_A

Best,
 
Liz
Liz Schrayer, USGLC

After Tumultuous Election, Foreign Policy Direction Less Clear

Bipartisan Congressional Support Remains Strong
 
Get the USGLC's full 2016 Election Analysis
http://action.usglc.org/site/R?i=zXp5Gyyo-wzVdyz6XcLAvA

Here's our takeaways on foreign policy and Election 2016:

1. Foreign Policy a Top Issue. As voters headed to the polls, 4 out of
5 said that foreign policy was either "extremely
important" or "very important" to their vote
regardless of which presidential candidate they supported, not
surprising given the growing humanitarian crises and instability in
the world. However, with the historic closeness of the race,
"foreign policy" likely meant something very different for
many Trump and Clinton supporters. At the same time, the vast array of
Congressional winners  and their opponents  ran campaigns on records
that were supportive of U.S. engagement to solve global challenges.

2. U.S. Joins Rising Populist Tide Around the World. With that said,
many pundits saw the unpredicted nature of Trump's victory as
part of a rising nationalist tide against immigration, trade, and
globalization. While the exact size and nature of this anti-engagement
sentiment among some American voters is unknown, a portion of voters
on the left and certainly the right were clearly drawn to an
anti-trade and likely broader nativist message. Expect the anxiety
around global economic issues and protectionism to endure.

3. Trump's Unconventional Foreign Policy Platform. After decades of
GOP support for American engagement abroad, Trump's foreign
policy positions countered traditional GOP foreign policy doctrine
from challenging alliances to anti-trade rhetoric to his
"America First" platform (a throwback to the original
1940s brand of isolationism). This led to significant rifts among GOP
foreign policy stalwarts and sowed fears with allies overseas. Last
night, Trump appeared to thread a needle between his "American
interests first" campaign pledge and his words that America
"will deal fairly with everyone... We will seek common
ground, not hostility; partnership, not conflict." Eyes will be
watching to see how the President-elect embraces Reagan's
"peace through strength" approach and if he fills his
cabinet with internationalist advisors like Senate Foreign Relations
Chairman Bob Corker and National Security Transition Chair, former
Congressman Mike Rogers.

4. Trump Unclear on Humanitarian and Foreign Assistance. Trump's
global development agenda is less clear. In launching his campaign, he
said we must "stop sending foreign aid to countries that hate
us." Later, however, he said that America will "continue
forever to play the role of peacemaker. We will always help save lives
and indeed, humanity itself... We are a humanitarian
nation." In a TV interview last April, he weighed in on our
nation's humanitarian and foreign assistance programs noting
that "if we don't help" countries facing disasters,
then it would create "bigger problems." Yet, he pivoted
back in a recent letter stating "the billions we spend on child
survival, maternal and child health and food aid can and must do more
to help impoverished nations become capable of taking care of
themselves in the future." A key area to watch is who fills some
of the key positions.

5. Pence a Likely Liaison to Congress. Vice President-elect Mike Pence
is expected to be an important conduit between the White House and
Congress, especially given his tenure in the House and friendship with
Speaker Paul Ryan. A former House Foreign Affairs Committee member and
noted religious conservative, Pence was a leading advocate of the
President's Emergency Response for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), calling
it a "moral obligation" for the U.S. to lead in
confronting the pandemic. However, even as a vocal supporter of
humanitarian programs, his track record on actually funding these
efforts is mixed but hopefully will shift. As Chairman of the
Republican Study Committee, he supported proposals to drastically
reduce or eliminate certain development agencies and programs.

6. Congressional Winners Committed to Global Engagement. Many USGLC
friends and allies from both sides of the aisle will return to the
House and Senate as champions of America's international affairs
programs. Based on our briefings with more than 160 House and Senate
candidates, the pro-engagement caucus will be strong. From Senator
Marco Rubio (R-FL), who will return to the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee, to in-coming Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to new
Senators Todd Young (IN-R) and Tammy Duckworth (IL-D)  both veterans,
the 115th Senate will be full of internationalists. In the House,
watch for newly elected members Mike Gallagher (R-WI), a marine and
former Senate Foreign Relations Committee staffer, along with
Stephanie Murphy (D-FL) and Jim Banks (R-IN) to stake out
pro-engagement platforms and committee assignments.

7. Foreign Assistance Not a Voting Issue. While the topic never
emerged as a central issue on the national debate stage, foreign
assistance was mentioned positively by winners and challengers on both
sides of the aisle. One senator who won reelection proudly named
global development legislation as one of his premier accomplishments.
Out of several hundred television ads focused on foreign policy,
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) was the only candidate that ran anti-foreign
assistance ads.

8. First 100 Days Inbox: Humanitarian Crises. Amidst a divided country
and numerous domestic challenges, one area that has emerged as a
consensus priority among candidates up and down the ballot is the need
to address ongoing humanitarian crises, particularly in Syria. With
more than 65 million people displaced around the world  the highest
number ever  and three level-3 global emergencies, this will be a key
area for the next Administration and Congress to work together.
 
Get the USGLC's full 2016 Election Analysis
http://action.usglc.org/site/R?i=nT_qZjw-cxRrRuzyDx2HCA

The U.S. Global Leadership Coalition
1129 20th Street NW, Suite 600, Washington, DC 20036
Manage Subscriptions | Unsubscribe | USGLC.org

http://action.usglc.org/site/R?i=pqFk2HBkw29rU4PegkuVyQ
http://action.usglc.org/site/CO?i=q9abd5RFziDh6GhV73kwk4rNv6UQxy-C&cid=0
http://action.usglc.org/site/R?i=oyDQDpXdtQomg2LKIhs9Ew

http://action.usglc.org/site/R?i=_Y7c7x47IQn12S1Y2juTbQ