Subject: EconVue Spotlight November 13, 2016
From: "Lyric Hughes Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 13 Nov 2016 13:23:27 -0800 (PST)

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EconVue Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

Just a few days before the US elections, I attended a conference

https://www.chicagofed.org/events/2016/nineteenth-international-banking-conference

at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago on financial stability. The focus 
was primarily regulatory, including technical discussions about capital 
requirements and the relative benefits of bail-ins vs bail-outs. But the 
keynote presentation that in hindsight was most relevant to this week's 
events was about politics and income inequality. Karen Shaw Petrou's 
speech is first on my list of the thinking that best reflects the signal 
and rises above the noise this week. EconVue expert Robert Pringle has a 
similar view, from a British perspective. We include global reaction to 
the election of Donald Trump, and focus on two policy areas most likely 
to change, trade and infrastructure. The US election and referenda such 
as Brexit and the upcoming Italian vote on December 4 are delayed 
political reactions to the Global Financial Crisis, and we shall see 
more of them.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT US Economy 1. Income Inequality: The 
Battlefield Casualty of Post-Crisis Financial Policy

http://www.fedfin.com/images/stories/press_center/speeches/Income%20Inequality-The%20Battlefield%20Casualty%20of%20Post-Crisis%20Financial%20Policy_Speech.pdf

Karen Shaw Petrou 11/3/16 Fedfin, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 
Monetary-policy actions-once essential, now unduly prolonged-have 
changed how markets work and who wins or loses. These market-structure 
changes have combined with ill-harmonized rules to make banks safer at 
grave cost to overall financial stability. 2. Conducting Monetary Policy 
in an Evolving Economy

https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/speeches/2016/10-11-2016-conducting-monetary-policy-in-an-evolving-environment-sydney#.WCdJLqjf6GU.twitter

Charles Evans 10/11/16 Federal Reserve Bank Chicago Chicago Fed Charles 
Evans' October speech in Sydney is worth reading now as we approach the 
FOMC decision on December 14. 3. U.S. Productivity Growth Flowing 
Downstream&nbsp;

http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/eclett/2016/el1612.pdf

Michael Sposi and Kelvinder Virdi October 2016 Federal Reserve of Dallas 
Measurements of U.S. productivity growth have declined, particularly in 
the high-tech sector. This may reflect increased U.S. specialization in 
upstream activities in the global supply chain. Those activities tend to 
experience slower productivity growth. 4. Mortgage rates rise again and 
look to be headed higher in the coming weeks

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/where-we-live/wp/2016/11/10/mortgage-rates-rise-again-and-look-to-be-headed-higher-in-the-coming-weeks/

Kathy Orton 11/10/16 Washington Post Elections 12. Donald Trump's 
Jacksonian Revolt

http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trumps-jacksonian-revolt-1478886196

Walter Russell Mead 11/11/16 WSJ Historical perspective from Walter 
Russell Mead. "Mr. Trump's election sends a signal that leaders and 
citizens at home and abroad cannot ignore: Andrew Jackson is still the 
most important figure in American politics, and any political party that 
pours contempt on Jacksonian values risks a shocking rebuke at the hands 
of the voters." 13. Interview With Jim Bianco: The Elite Opinion Does 
Not Count Anymore

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-12/interview-jim-bianco-elite-opinion-does-not-count-anymore

Tyler Durden 11/12/16 ZeroHedge Sobering discussion with Chicago 
economist Jim Bianco. 16. China Doesn't Know What To Think About Donald 
Trump

http://politicsfromtheprovinces.blogspot.com/2016/11/china-doesnt-know-what-to-think-about.html?m=1

China Politics from the Provinces 11/12/16 Bar none, the most realistic 
analysis of Chinese government reaction to Trump's election: they don't 
know any more than we do. 15. Italian referendum more about public 
support for PM Renzi than constitutional reform

https://www.rt.com/op-edge/365487-italy-referendum-constitutional-reform/

RT News 11/5/16 Trade 5. A TPP without the US? It's being suggested

http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/A-TPP-without-the-US-It-s-being-suggested?n_cid=NARAN012

Takeshi Kawanami 11/13/16 Nikkei Peruvian President Pedro Pablo 
Kuczynski on Friday told reporters that countries should seek to forge a 
fresh deal; he even suggested that China and Russia be included. APEC 
business meetings are beginning in Lima, Peru; the Leader's Summit 
begins this Saturday. Trade is of course at the top of the agenda. 
Perhaps the TPP just needs to be re-branded as the Trump Pacific 
Partnership and the US can avoid PPK's scenario. 6. 100 Days of Trump 
Trade Policy

https://www.cato.org/blog/100-days-trump-trade-policy

K. William Watson 11/11/16 Cato Institute 7. Canada open to 
renegotiating free trade with Donald Trump

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/canada-open-renegotiating-free-trade-donald-trump/

CBS News 11/10/16 Canada open to renegotiating free trade with Donald 
Trump says Canadian ambassador in Washington. 8. Trade Investment 
Framework Agreements | United States Trade Representative

https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/trade-investment-framework-agreements

Office of US Trade Representative 11/13/16 TPP is dead- are TIFA's the 
future? 9. Nigeria: D-8 Countries Target U.S.$500 Billion Trade Volume

http://allafrica.com/stories/201611080182.html

Christiana T. Alabi 11/8/16 AllAfrica Infrastructure 10. Infrastructure 
Gets a Win on Election Night&nbsp;

http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/asce-news/infrastructure-gets-a-win-on-election-night/

Maria Matthews 11/10/16 ASCE Infrastructure referenda were winners in 
several states. 11. Too Much Law and Too Little Infrastructure

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/11/08/too-much-law-and-too-little-infrastructure/

Francis Fukuyama 11/8/16 American Interest 17. Building Smart Cities in 
India: Allahabad, Ajmer, and Visakhapatnam

https://www.brookings.edu/research/building-smart-cities-in-india-allahabad-ajmer-and-visakhapatnam/

Shamika Ravi, Adie Tomer, Ankit Bhatia, and Joseph Kane 8/18/16 
Brookings

ECONVUE RESEARCH AND INSIGHTS What Brexit and Trump's Victory have in 
Common

https://econvue.com/pulse/what-brexit-and-trump's-victory-have-common

Robert Pringle

https://econvue.com/experts/robert-pringle

11/10/16 Many facile comparisons have been made between Brexit and the 
election of Donald Trump today. They have an important element in 
common. But the commentators have missed it. TOE Report: Third Term for 
Abe

https://econvue.com/reports/richard-katz/toe-report-third-term-abe

Richard Katz

https://econvue.com/experts/richard-katz

11/10/16 Subscription content; email [email-masked] for a 
complimentary PDF Third Term for Abe, Early election escapades, The 
Politics of Japan's trade strategy, Economy Watch

To download [FMI Data Analysis_November 10[2].pdf], click on the following link:
http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01c7-1611/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct22_1/1?sid=TV2%3Acrj5774k3

Data Round-Up: FMI&nbsp;Weekly UI Claims &amp; Rail Traffic

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/trump-campaign-signals-yellens-job-safe-now

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

11/10/16

FMI continues to believe that Yellen will be reappointed. It is 13 
months until the end of Yellen's first term which is an eternity in 
politics and a decent stretch in monetary policy. Trump would pay a 
political price for refusing to reappoint the highest-ranking female 
official in the nation. There also would be little benefit for his new 
administration. Trump has complained that Yellen has kept interest rates 
too low (and on that, FMI agrees). But Yellen is raising rates. Another 
funds rate hike looks certain for December, and the FOMC "dot plot" 
shows a couple more coming in 2017.

UI Claims remain remarkably low – this was the 88th straight week below 
300K. Intermodal rail freight, another ‘real-time' indicator, has picked 
up over the past four weeks, volume is up 1% vs. a year ago.

HealthCare.Gov's Death-Defying 2013 Launch: Implications for CMS-Led 
Payment Reform

https://econvue.com/pulse/healthcaregov's-death-defying-2013-launch-implications-cms-led-payment-reform

David W. Johnson

https://econvue.com/experts/david-w-johnson

11/10/16 HealthCare.gov's near-death experience raises profound 
questions regarding the CMS's (Centers for Medicare and Medicaid 
Service) ability to manage major value-based payment reform. It also 
offers several lessons for designing and implementing successful 
programs.

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Spotlight are posted on our website.

With all best wishes,

Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

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