Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: 5 campaigns to watch in 2017 — 2018 update: Heller for Senate, Trump Cabinet opens another House seat — January retirement watch
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Tue, 03 Jan 2017 09:01:47 -0600
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By Elena Schneider | 01/03/2017 10:00 AM EDT

With Theodoric Meyer and Kevin Robillard 

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

ON THE HORIZON - "5 elections to watch in 2017," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard, Theodoric Meyer and Elena Schneider: "November 2016 is in the rear-view mirror, and November 2018 is still a long way off. But several major governor's races and special elections loom in 2017, as President-elect Donald Trump launches his administration and the parties prepare to deal with a fully GOP-dominated national political landscape for the first time in over a decade. These odd-year contests have traditionally been early tests, or even early warning systems, for a new president's party. But in 2017, they will also give both parties room to explore weighty questions posed and left unsolved in 2016 -
 particularly, how the Republican Party will evolve under Trump at the state and local level, and what Democrats want their party to look and sound like as they try to fight their way back from political exile. Five 2017 contests will start answering those questions soon: 1. Virginia governor. 2. New Jersey governor. 3. Special election to replace Montana Rep. Ryan Zinke. 4. Special election to replace Georgia Rep. Tom Price. 5. North Carolina special legislative elections." Full story.

MOVING (CANDIDATE) PIECES - Heller to run for reelection, not governor, in Nevada: "Republican Sen. Dean Heller announced Thursday that he will run for reelection in Nevada in 2018, after saying earlier this month that he was considering a bid for governor. ... Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval is in the middle of his second term and cannot run again in 2018. Heller is one of just eight GOP senators up for reelection in 2018, and he is the only one from a state Hillary Clinton carried. He is set to be Democrats' top Senate target in an election that will mostly have the party on defense around the country. ... Heller's decision to pass on the governor's race leaves the field to replace
 Sandoval wide open." Full story.

- Names floating around as possible Democratic recruits: Kate Marshall, former Nevada treasurer who unsuccessfully ran for Secretary of State in 2014, state Sen. Aaron Ford and Ross Miller, former Secretary of State who unsuccessfully ran for attorney general in 2014. 

- Illinois' Rauner drops $50M into 2018 reelection bid, per POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner of Illinois is dumping $50 million into his 2018 race for reelection, an infusion of cash that's an indication he's prepared to spend big bucks to win a second term. The investment could be designed to scare off a prospective bid by Democratic venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker, a billionaire who is seen as a potential opponent. Rauner, who chaired a private equity firm prior to being elected in 2014, is very wealthy in his own right. Rauner cut the check this week, according to state campaign finance records." Full story.

- Rep. Mick Mulvaney, tapped for OMB, sets off scramble in South Carolina: The Republican congressman moving over to lead the Office of Management and Budget means another special election in South Carolina. Several candidates are eyeing the House seat, including state Rep. Ralph Norman, who told The Charlotte Observer he will run for it if Mulvaney is confirmed. Other names noted are York County Republican lawmakers Gary Simrill and Tommy Pope, former state GOP Party chair Chad Connelly and Democrat Fran Person, who lost to Mulvaney in November.

RETIREMENT WATCH - "Which senators will call it quits?" by POLITICO's Seung Min Kim and Burgess Everett: "Orrin Hatch and Dianne Feinstein will be 84- and 85-years-old, respectively, on Election Day 2018. If that thought alone isn't tiring enough, here's another way of looking at it: If they run and win, both would eclipse the 90-year mark by the end of their term. But if the serenity of Utah or coastal beauty of California is beckoning either senator into retirement, neither is willing to publicly entertain it just yet. ... No incumbent so far has announced plans to leave. Party leaders are working to keep senators from politically reliable states in place and prevent departures that could
 alter the balance of power in the chamber ... Some senators, however, are hedging. Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.), a former governor and now a three-term senator, said he has yet to decide his plans and will consult with his wife before he does so ... Meanwhile, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) is ramping up his political activity in anticipation of a 2018 reelection bid, even as he faces a September trial on multiple federal corruption charges." Full story.

Days until the 2017 election: 308.

Days until the 2018 election: 672.

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ON THE HILL - "New GOP Congress confronts a crushing to-do list," by POLITICO's Rachael Bade and Elana Schor: "...Since Republicans will control all the levers of power in Washington for the first time in almost a decade, they'll hit the ground running on some issues: Both chambers, for example, hope to pass a budget blueprint that makes a critical down payment on repealing Obamacare even before Trump's Jan. 20 inauguration. But it won't take long for the inherent divide between Senate and House Republicans to rear its head." Here are the highlights: Obamacare repeal, cabinet confirmations, regulatory rollbacks, UN rebuke, Ryan's reelection as speaker and new House rules. Full story.

- "House Republicans gut their own oversight," by POLITICO's Rachael Bade and John Bresnahan: "In one of their first moves of the new Congress, House Republicans have voted to gut their own independent ethics watchdog - a huge blow to cheerleaders of congressional oversight and one that dismantles major reforms adopted after the Jack Abramoff scandal. Monday's effort was led, in part, by lawmakers who have come under investigation in recent years. Despite a warning from Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), House Republicans adopted a proposal by Judiciary Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.) to put the Office of Congressional Ethics under the jurisdiction of
 the House Ethics Committee. The office currently has free rein, enabling investigators to pursue allegations and then recommend further action to the House Ethics Committee as they see fit. Now, the office would be under the thumb of lawmakers themselves." Full story.

LEGAL BATTLES - "North Carolina judge temporarily blocks laws curbing governor's power," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "A North Carolina judge has temporarily blocked a law, passed by the state's Republican-controlled legislature and signed by GOP Gov. Pat McCrory, that would curb the incoming Democratic governor's ability to control statewide and county election boards. Gov.-elect Roy Cooper filed a lawsuit over the new law Friday afternoon, asking a Wake County Superior Court judge to stop it from taking effect while the suit proceeds. The judge granted the stay request and scheduled another hearing on the case next week." Full story.

- Parting shots ... Lawyers for state leaders (a day before McCrory's term ended) filed an emergency motion with the U.S. Supreme Court to stay the court-ordered special elections, asking them to intervene by Jan. 11, when the legislature will go back into session, per The Raleigh News and Observer. 

CLIP AND SAVES FROM THE BREAK - "Ward picked to lead Obama-Holder redistricting project," by POLITICO's Edward-Isaac Dovere: "President Barack Obama and Eric Holder's quickly expanding Democratic joint project to tackle redistricting reform has picked a leader: Kelly Ward, fresh off four years as the executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Ward is coming in initially as the interim executive director of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee as it continues to come together, meeting with donors, hiring staff, managing groups joining as members and beginning to identify races to target as the effort gears up for action in 2017, 2018 and into 2020 - and
 then the actual rounds of redistricting in 2021." Full story. 

- NRSC names senior staff for 2018 election cycle: "Two key staffers from the NRSC's successful bid to protect its Senate majority in 2016 will stay on their jobs in 2018, as the committee staffs up and looks to expand its grip on the chamber in two years. Sarah Morgan will reprise her role as political director in 2018 and Jon Adams will continue as the committee's digital director. Morgan was previously the NRSC's western political director and ran Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake's 2012 campaign. Adams had worked at GOP digital giant Targeted Victory and ran analytics for the Romney campaign in 2012. ... Katie Behnke, who was new NRSC chairman Cory Gardner's deputy campaign manager in 2014, will
 be the finance director. ... Katie Martin, the NRCC's communications director in 2016 and a regional press secretary in 2014, will become the NRSC's communications director in 2018. ... Jessica Furst Johnson will be the NRSC's general counsel." Full story.

- DSCC names Mindy Myers executive director: "Mindy Myers, who ran the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's independent-expenditure arm in 2016, will be the committee's executive director for the 2018 cycle. She is the first woman to hold the position." Full story.

- Club for Growth endorses Mandel: "Club for Growth PAC has rolled out its expected endorsement of Ohio state Treasurer Josh Mandel in the 2018 Senate race, hoping its early backing can scare off potential GOP primary challengers as Mandel seeks a rematch with Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown." Full story.

TRANSITION SPEED READ - "Inside Trump's strategy to remodel the Supreme Court," by POLITICO's Shane Goldmacher and Josh Gerstein: "Donald Trump has narrowed his short list for his first Supreme Court pick down to roughly a half-dozen finalists but the president-elect and his top advisers are already thinking about a second selection, as they strategize over how to remodel the court with a reliably conservative bent. Trump's team wants to make filling the seat held by the late Justice Antonin Scalia one of the earliest acts of his presidency, according to multiple transition officials, in hopes of scoring an energizing and unifying victory for the conservative movement. ... But in the
 current search process, Trump's team is also hoping to identify a conservative candidate - possibly a woman - who could be more politically palatable, or at least harder for Senate Democrats to oppose, if Kennedy or Ginsburg leave the court. ... Two of the most-discussed names are Diane Sykes of the Chicago-based 7th Circuit federal appeals court and William Pryor of the Atlanta-based 11th Circuit, in part because Trump himself name-dropped them at a primary debate last February." Full story. 

- "Ethics advocates warn Trump that he needs to do more to divest from family business," by The Washington Post's Tom Hamburger: "A bipartisan group of ethics advocates lobbed a second letter to President-elect Donald Trump on Monday evening warning him that he needs to do more to separate himself from his family business interests. The letter comes after Trump announced some changes in his business empire, with more expected before Inauguration Day. The letter signers include two conservative allies of Trump senior adviser Stephen K. Bannon - Peter Schweizer, the author of the book "Clinton Cash," which outlined possible conflicts of interest posed by Hillary Clinton because of donations
 to her husband's charitable foundation, as well as John Pudner, who went to high school with Bannon and now runs the advocacy group Take Back Our Republic." Full story.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "We just pinned down exactly where the original line was." - South Carolina state Sen. Wes Hayes, on state border legislation that took effect over New Year's and "moved 16 people who thought they lived in South Carolina to North Carolina," per The State.

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