Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Republican brace for 2018 primary shifts — New ads from American Action Network — Holder launches Democratic restricting initiative
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2017 09:05:52 -0600
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By Theodoric Meyer | 01/13/2017 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

GRAND OLD PUZZLE - "Republicans prepare for 2018 primary shifts under Trump," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "Just when Republicans thought they had figured out their primaries, along came President-elect Donald Trump. GOP strategists surveying the ripe 2018 Senate landscape - which features 10 Democratic incumbents in states Trump won - are suddenly unsure whether the landscape has changed drastically in the primaries that come first. Those operatives are trying to figure out whether new battle lines have emerged in a primary electorate that has been altered, reweighted, and energized by the new president's rise."

- "One major GOP outside group has changed its polling formula as it surveys Republican voters in preparation for 2018. Where it used to ask primary voters if they identified as 'tea party Republicans' or 'mainstream Republicans,' the group has added a third option: 'Trump Republicans.' Early polls have shown the party cleaved in approximately equal thirds in key states." Full story. 

NEW THIS MORNING - American Action Network digital ads tout House GOP health plan: American Action Network, a nonprofit aligned with House GOP leadership, is spending $400,000 to run digital ads championing House Republicans' plans for replacing Obamacare. The ads complement the $1 million in TV ads that the group announced earlier this week. The digital ads will run in districts belong to 28 House Republicans, including a number who faced tough races last year and may again in 2018. They include Reps. Jeff Denham, David Valadao and Darrell Issa of California; Mike Coffman of Colorado; Carlos Curbelo of Florida; Rod Blum of Iowa; Kevin Yoder of Kansas; Erik Paulsen of Minnesota; Don Bacon
 of Nebraska; Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania and Barbara Comstock of Virginia. Watch the ad here.

Days until the 2017 election: 298.

Days until the 2018 election: 662.

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PROGRAMMING NOTE - Morning Score will not publish on Monday, Jan. 16, due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day. We'll be back on Tuesday, Jan. 17.

IT'S 2020 ALREADY - "Holder launches Democratic redistricting initiative," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "Former Attorney General Eric Holder on Thursday officially launched the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, billing it in a speech to the Center for American Progress Action Fund as the center of Democratic rebuilding in the era of President-elect Donald Trump and as Democrats' main hope to roll back Republican gains in state legislatures and prepare for redistricting in 2020. The end goal: House majorities in Congresses elected after 2020. But Holder cited the Virginia governor's race and the potential special legislative races in North Carolina as "priorities" toward
 that end happening in 2017. Those states will be two early battlefields where NDRC will try to ensure Democrats have a "rightful seat at the table during the 2020 redistricting process," Holder said." Full story.

- Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee Executive Director Jessica Post will also serve on the board of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, the DLCC announced on Thursday.

ANNALS OF ELECTIONS LAW - "Utah law unclear on filling vacant U.S. House seat, legislators working on fix," by The Salt Lake Tribune's Lee Davidson: "Amid reports that President-elect Donald Trump may appoint Rep. Chris Stewart, R-Utah, as the new Air Force secretary, Utah officials are finding that the state has some big holes in its election law on how to replace him or any other member. For U.S. House members who resign, Utah law says simply that 'the governor shall issue a proclamation calling an election to fill the vacancy.' It is silent on whether that should allow conventions or primary elections first to narrow the field, how quickly the election should be held, and how candidates
 qualify for the ballot - including whether they could do so by gathering signatures." Full story.

ONE STEP CLOSER - "Philip Levine, likely gubernatorial candidate, not seeking re-election as Miami Beach mayor," by POLITICO Florida's Matt Dixon: "Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine, a Democrat who is widely considered a potential 2018 gubernatorial candidate, will not seek re-election. 'Now I look forward to exploring ways to how best serve both my community and my state,' he said in a video sent out Thursday. 'How to make Florida a leader in the 21st century world economy.' ... Levine has been on a perpetual short list of Democrats thought to be running for governor. Others include one-term Rep. Gwen Graham of Tallahassee, trial attorney John Morgan, and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum."
 Full story.

EARLY NUMBERS - Planned Parenthood polls test Flake, Heller favorability: Two new Planned Parenthood tested the favorability of the only two Republican senators that Democrats stand a decent chance of defeating in 2018, Jeff Flake of Arizona and Dean Heller of Nevada. Forty-five percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Flake, while 37 percent have an unfavorable one. Forty-three percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Heller and 35 percent have an unfavorable one. The poll also found that 48 percent of Arizonans would be less likely to support Flake if he voted to defund Planned Parenthood, and that 49 percent of Nevadans felt the same way about Heller. The polls
 were conducted Dec. 16-20 by Global Strategy Group and each surveyed 600 likely voters. They each have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Full Arizona results here. Full Nevada results here.

TRANSITION SPEED READ - "'It's Game of Thrones, the Apprentice, and Survivor all mixed into one,'" by POLITICO's Eliana Johnson: "Behind closed doors, Chris Christie - unceremoniously sent packing from Donald Trump's transition headquarters in Washington two months ago - is telegraphing a message to his confidants: I'll be back. The hard-charging New Jersey governor is playing the long game, betting that Trump's senior aides and cabinet nominees, nearly all of whom lack governing experience, will face unexpected challenges when they settle into the West Wing. Christie turned down several offers to join the Trump administration when he was denied the attorney general post, but he has told
 associates he expects Trump to turn people like him - seasoned lawmakers and political hands - if and when the neophytes begin to flounder." Full story. 

- Chaffetz threatens to subpoena federal ethics watchdog over Trump criticism," by POLITICO's Darren Samuelsohn and Josh Gerstein: "House Republicans have found a subject for their opening review of conflicts of interest under Donald Trump: the federal official in charge of investigating conflicts of interest. Rep. Jason Chaffetz, the head of the House Oversight Committee, criticized the director of the federal Office of Government Ethics on Thursday over his criticism of Donald Trump's plan to address conflicts of interest. And he threatened to subpoena the official, Walter Shaub, if he refuses to participate in an official interview." Full story

- "Key Senate committee won't probe possible Trump-Russia collusion," by POLITICO's Austin Wright and Elana Schor: "Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr (R-N.C.) said Thursday his panel's investigation into Russia's meddling in the presidential election would not look into possible contacts between Moscow and the Trump campaign. Burr's comments raise questions about Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's piecemeal approach to investigating Russia's role in the election - and who in Congress, if anyone, will investigate allegations that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia once the president-elect takes office." Full story.

- "Meeting with Kushner's friend convinced Abbas: Trump serious about Jerusalem embassy move," by Haaretz's Barak Ravid and Jack Khoury: "Mahmoud Abbas' meeting with a U.S. businessman close to Donald Trump's son-in-law prompted the Palestinian president to launch a campaign against moving the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, Israeli and Palestinian sources say. Until the meeting with New York businessman Daniel Arbess last week, Abbas interpreted the U.S. president-elect's declarations about moving the embassy as mere election slogans. ... It is not entirely clear how close Arbess is to Trump. But an American source who knows him says Arbess has friendly ties with the most
 significant man in Trump's entourage, his son-in-law Jared Kushner." Full story.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "It feels great. When you're a convicted felon, it's like you're a second-class citizen. We are going to go have a chicken quesadilla." - John O'Hara, a New York lawyer who was exonerated on Thursday after being convicted of voter fraud nearly two decades ago. (The Daily News)

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