Subject: David Hale Global Economics: January 2017 Report
From: "Lyric Hughes Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 25 Jan 2017 11:53:18 -0800 (PST)

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Dear R. Hunter,

It is possible that the policies of the Trump Administration could be 
enacted without creating inflation. Deregulation, lower taxes, 
public-private partnerships, and structural reforms could combine to 
create efficiencies without increasing government borrowing or the 
federal deficit. If he is able to accomplish this, President Trump will 
have brought supply side economics back into vogue, and will have 
succeeded where Ronald Reagan failed. 2017 is off to quite a start. 
Milton Friedman still holds sway here in Chicago where I attended the 
annual meeting of the American Economic Association with 5000 economists 
from around the world. Hardly a presentation or data set failed to 
reference the Global Financial Crisis, a cataclysmic natural experiment. 
The fact that few predicted it did not prevent many from talking with 
equal confidence about America's gloomy future under President Trump. 
China was a focus of many presentations, which I will be discussing in 
my next report. Tariffs, repatriation of corporate profits, and new jobs 
(if they are created) could all be inflationary. I was in Washington 
during the Inauguration and had the opportunity to speak with a broad 
swath of policy and opinionmakers. The American political shock of a 
lifetime is playing out as scripted. The Trump Administration, fighting 
significant headwinds, is going to try to steer the ship exactly as 
promised. The benchmark that 70% of campaign promises are not kept does 
not apply here to a non-politician. Based upon my discussions, I 
disagree that the Trump Team is further behind in their transition 
efforts than Obama was at this same time. Expected changes, such as 
withdrawal from the TPP are moving swiftly and as scheduled. These first 
100 days will be a fascinating time for historians, and investors.

Attached is our January report on supply side economics in the Trump 
era, and my op ed 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/is-it-time-to-abolish-fha-mortgage-insurance_us_588665ebe4b0111ea60b990a

for the Huffington Post on Friday's suspension of the FHA mortgage 
insurance rate cut.

With all best wishes,

Lyric Hughes Hale

David Hale Global Economics, Inc.

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